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A Different Take

Created by: westleysnipez
Team: 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 21, 2023
Published: Dec. 21, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Eberle, Jordan
1$1,375,000
Trades
1.
VAN
  1. Eberle, Jordan ($2,750,000 retained)
Additional Details:
Comparable trades:

2023 TDL - Tarasenko to NYR

2022 TDL - Rakell to PIT
SEA
  1. Klimovich, Danila
  2. 2024 3rd round pick (VAN)
  3. 2025 2nd round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
2025 2nd round pick (VAN) [Conditional]*

*Conditions: If the Canucks make the Conference Finals in 2024, the 2nd round pick becomes a 1st round pick in 2025.
2.
VAN
    Could be any team willing to retain 1.375M more on Eberle's contract.

    Comparables:

    2023 - MIN retained 50% on O'Rielly (3.75M for 4th Rnd Pick)

    2023 - MIN retained 50% on Orlov (2.55M for 5th Rnd Pick)

    2023 - ARI retained 50% on Kane (5.5M for 3rd Rnd Pick)
    CHI
    1. Eberle, Jordan
    2. 2024 6th round pick (SJS)
    Additional Details:
    Eberle retained to 1.375M
    3.
    ANA
    1. 2024 7th round pick (VAN)
    Additional Details:
    Or Future Considerations

    Hagg has already cleared waivers, has 338 NHL games, and can hit. Sure, he's not a full-time NHLer, but if the Canucks plan on a deep run having depth like Hagg could be a good solution if injuries creep up. Also helps Abbotsford with their defensive injuries piling up.
    4.
    VAN
    1. Maroon, Patrick ($400,000 retained)
    MIN
    1. Bloom, Josh
    2. 2025 6th round pick (VAN)
    Buyouts
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2024
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the NJD
    Logo of the VAN
    2025
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    2026
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$83,500,000$83,255,417$850,000$0$244,583
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,100,000$1,100,000
    LW, RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $8,000,000$8,000,000
    C, LW, RW
    NMC
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $6,650,000$6,650,000
    RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $4,750,000$4,750,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $7,350,000$7,350,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Eberle, Jordan
    $1,375,000$1,375,000
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $825,000$825,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,600,000$1,600,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $4,950,000$4,950,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,900,000$1,900,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,150,000$1,150,000
    RW, C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Minnesota Wild
    $400,000$400,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $883,750$883,750
    C
    RFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $7,850,000$7,850,000
    LD
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $4,400,000$4,400,000
    RD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    G
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,750,000$3,750,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,800,000$1,800,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,250,000$3,250,000
    LD/RD
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $775,000$775,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $775,000$775,000
    LD
    UFA - 2

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    Dec. 22, 2023 at 12:19 a.m.
    #26
    Thread Starter
    westleysnipez
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    Joined: Jun. 2022
    Posts: 1,382
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    Quoting: Garak
    AZ got a 3rd to retain 25% of Kanes total cap hit, which may have been about double the cap hit, but the actual salary owed to Kane for last season was significantly less than what Eberle will be owed at this years deadline. In cases like this, where the cap hit is irrelevant to the third party team, actual dollars matter more, and, even more so, the retention slot itself is worth more than the cap and salary amounts, and CHI only has two of them left. CHI is one of very few teams that could actually do something like this, and the less cap space a team has the more them retaining is worth. So, most other teams are likely going to charge more. So, sorry, but a 6th round pick IS NOT fair market value for third party retention at the deadline, especially not in such a cap strapped deadline.


    Uhhhh... no.

    Kane was owed: 6.9M in salary

    Eberle is owed: 3.75M in salary

    There is more cap space and dollars available this season compared to last season when teams were making this kind of deal I based it on. There are multiple examples I linked that showed that this is fair value. Now, Chicago might not use it because they've problematic contracts that they're tied to, still, other teams would be interested in this kind of deal.
    Dec. 22, 2023 at 6:53 a.m.
    #27
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    Joined: Jun. 2019
    Posts: 11,699
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    Quoting: westleysnipez
    Uhhhh... no.

    Kane was owed: 6.9M in salary

    Eberle is owed: 3.75M in salary

    There is more cap space and dollars available this season compared to last season when teams were making this kind of deal I based it on. There are multiple examples I linked that showed that this is fair value. Now, Chicago might not use it because they've problematic contracts that they're tied to, still, other teams would be interested in this kind of deal.


    Uh... No. Kane wasn't owed $6.9M in salary. Look closer, bub. His final signing bonus of $4m was paid out on July 1st 2022, leaving only $2.9m owed. At the trade deadline, the salary owed is prorated to less than half of that. The Rangers only owed him like $200k after the double retention. Eberle doesn't have a signing bonus.

    And, CHI doesn't have any "problematic contracts that they are tied to." They are in a rebuild, in a season that a lot of teams are cap strapped, they have tons of cap space, and only two retention slots. They are more valuable than a 6th round pick to any team, let alone a team like CHI that is purposely set up to leverage them. Nobody is going to do that for a 6th, not this year.
    Dec. 22, 2023 at 12:46 p.m.
    #28
    Thread Starter
    westleysnipez
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    Joined: Jun. 2022
    Posts: 1,382
    Likes: 587
    Quoting: Garak
    Uh... No. Kane wasn't owed $6.9M in salary. Look closer, bub. His final signing bonus of $4m was paid out on July 1st 2022, leaving only $2.9m owed. At the trade deadline, the salary owed is prorated to less than half of that. The Rangers only owed him like $200k after the double retention. Eberle doesn't have a signing bonus.

    And, CHI doesn't have any "problematic contracts that they are tied to." They are in a rebuild, in a season that a lot of teams are cap strapped, they have tons of cap space, and only two retention slots. They are more valuable than a 6th round pick to any team, let alone a team like CHI that is purposely set up to leverage them. Nobody is going to do that for a 6th, not this year.


    Okay, so we're talking about the difference of 58k then. I mean if 2.9M is only 77% of 3.75M, a difference of 58k if NYR only owed Kane 200k from the TDL onward. That's a negligible difference in the scheme of things when teams deal in the millions every year. With the exception of maybe Arizona (whose in the playoffs and wouldn't look to retain) and Ottawa, any other team in the league would take 258k for a 6th round pick.

    Chicago does have problematic contracts; Johnson, Foligno, Beauvillier. That was entirely the point that was made by your fellow Hawks fan earlier in the post. If the Hawks are wanting to move one or two of those players for futures, that's what they have to use their remaining retention slots on. If they're wanting to use those retention slots as part of a 3-way trade, then they're not going to get much back.

    The market value shows that retained cap space for a rental isn't worth much more than a mid-to-late round pick. I've provided examples in the original post, but you've yet to provide any examples that would see Chicago earning an earlier pick like you're suggesting.

    I digress, fans on this site almost always overvalue what their team should get in a trade (Canuck fans are no exception), that's why I bring recent trades as examples as to why these would be fair deals. As I mentioned in the original title, it doesn't have to be Chicago. It doesn't matter if Chicago has only 2 retention slots left, there are a half dozen other teams that have more retention slots that would happily take 1.5M cap hit for a 6th round pick; as shown last season.
    Dec. 22, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
    #29
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    Joined: Jun. 2019
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    Likes: 11,886
    Quoting: westleysnipez
    Okay, so we're talking about the difference of 58k then. I mean if 2.9M is only 77% of 3.75M, a difference of 58k if NYR only owed Kane 200k from the TDL onward. That's a negligible difference in the scheme of things when teams deal in the millions every year. With the exception of maybe Arizona (whose in the playoffs and wouldn't look to retain) and Ottawa, any other team in the league would take 258k for a 6th round pick.

    Chicago does have problematic contracts; Johnson, Foligno, Beauvillier. That was entirely the point that was made by your fellow Hawks fan earlier in the post. If the Hawks are wanting to move one or two of those players for futures, that's what they have to use their remaining retention slots on. If they're wanting to use those retention slots as part of a 3-way trade, then they're not going to get much back.

    The market value shows that retained cap space for a rental isn't worth much more than a mid-to-late round pick. I've provided examples in the original post, but you've yet to provide any examples that would see Chicago earning an earlier pick like you're suggesting.

    I digress, fans on this site almost always overvalue what their team should get in a trade (Canuck fans are no exception), that's why I bring recent trades as examples as to why these would be fair deals. As I mentioned in the original title, it doesn't have to be Chicago. It doesn't matter if Chicago has only 2 retention slots left, there are a half dozen other teams that have more retention slots that would happily take 1.5M cap hit for a 6th round pick; as shown last season.


    Well, then my fellow Hawks fan is wrong. None of their contracts are a problem for CHI, and none of them are problematic people. Also, you literally used one single example, Maroon, to make your case, and that one example isn't even comparable. AZ received a 3rd round pick to retain 25% of Kane's contract. A 6th round pick is not enough. Here is a link to a study done on the cost of cap dumps: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-trade-deadline-countdown-which-teams-will-be-third-party-money-brokers

    In this instance, the third party broker would be liable for around $450k. Which is right between a 3rd and a 4th round pick, closer to a 3rd. In cap strapped seasons, the price of dumping and retaining salary goes up. Market value's are not static. They change from year to year, team to team, and even day to day. I highly doubt there are half a dozen teams that would give that large of a discount to broker a trade.

    Now, in CHI's case, that retention slot itself could be used in A LOT more lucrative ways that actually benefit our rebuild. A 6th round pick has around a 6% chance of even getting an ELC, let alone having any sort of NHL impact. You may believe that GM's and owners throw around money all willy nilly because they have a lot of it, but they don't. They got rich because they are greedy and fickle. Their job is to squeeze every bit of value out of everything they can.
    Dec. 22, 2023 at 9:34 p.m.
    #30
    Thread Starter
    westleysnipez
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    Quoting: Garak
    Well, then my fellow Hawks fan is wrong. None of their contracts are a problem for CHI, and none of them are problematic people. Also, you literally used one single example, Maroon, to make your case, and that one example isn't even comparable. AZ received a 3rd round pick to retain 25% of Kane's contract. A 6th round pick is not enough. Here is a link to a study done on the cost of cap dumps: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-trade-deadline-countdown-which-teams-will-be-third-party-money-brokers

    In this instance, the third party broker would be liable for around $450k. Which is right between a 3rd and a 4th round pick, closer to a 3rd. In cap strapped seasons, the price of dumping and retaining salary goes up. Market value's are not static. They change from year to year, team to team, and even day to day. I highly doubt there are half a dozen teams that would give that large of a discount to broker a trade.

    Now, in CHI's case, that retention slot itself could be used in A LOT more lucrative ways that actually benefit our rebuild. A 6th round pick has around a 6% chance of even getting an ELC, let alone having any sort of NHL impact. You may believe that GM's and owners throw around money all willy nilly because they have a lot of it, but they don't. They got rich because they are greedy and fickle. Their job is to squeeze every bit of value out of everything they can.


    Well, thanks for admitting you didn't read my post at all before you commented on it or my reply afterward. Maybe you'll read this one?

    The Hawks aren't getting anything for Johnson/Foligno/Beauvillier unless they retain on those contracts, unless the Hawks simply paid a 5th for Beauvillier intending to let him walk to free agency? They also aren't getting more than a mid-round pick for being a 3rd-party retainer.


    The Chicago trade has three examples directly in it, two from Minnesota, and one from Arizona.

    But here, I'll recap it for you so you don't have to scroll back up to the top:

    2023 - MIN retained 50% on O'Rielly (3.75M for 4th Rnd Pick) - O'Rielly owed 1M in salary for the season

    2023 - MIN retained 50% on Orlov (2.55M for 5th Rnd Pick) - Orlov owed 1.3M for the season

    2023 - ARI gave up prospect + retained 50% on Kane (2.75M for 3rd Rnd Pick) - Kane owed 2.9M for the season

    2022 - FLA retains 50% on Domi (2.65M) for a 6th Rnd Pick - Domi owed 6M for the season

    It's the cap space teams are paying for, not the salary. There is no correlation between salary and the pick, there is between the cap hit and the pick.


    A half dozen teams are missing the playoffs with a total of 16 retention slots between them. Given that we only saw three retention trades happen last season, the retention trades will go to the team that offers the cheapest retention slot. Chicago doesn't own the market, they're a part of the market.
    Dec. 23, 2023 at 8:24 a.m.
    #31
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    Quoting: westleysnipez
    Well, thanks for admitting you didn't read my post at all before you commented on it or my reply afterward. Maybe you'll read this one?

    The Hawks aren't getting anything for Johnson/Foligno/Beauvillier unless they retain on those contracts, unless the Hawks simply paid a 5th for Beauvillier intending to let him walk to free agency? They also aren't getting more than a mid-round pick for being a 3rd-party retainer.


    The Chicago trade has three examples directly in it, two from Minnesota, and one from Arizona.

    But here, I'll recap it for you so you don't have to scroll back up to the top:

    2023 - MIN retained 50% on O'Rielly (3.75M for 4th Rnd Pick) - O'Rielly owed 1M in salary for the season

    2023 - MIN retained 50% on Orlov (2.55M for 5th Rnd Pick) - Orlov owed 1.3M for the season

    2023 - ARI gave up prospect + retained 50% on Kane (2.75M for 3rd Rnd Pick) - Kane owed 2.9M for the season

    2022 - FLA retains 50% on Domi (2.65M) for a 6th Rnd Pick - Domi owed 6M for the season

    It's the cap space teams are paying for, not the salary. There is no correlation between salary and the pick, there is between the cap hit and the pick.


    A half dozen teams are missing the playoffs with a total of 16 retention slots between them. Given that we only saw three retention trades happen last season, the retention trades will go to the team that offers the cheapest retention slot. Chicago doesn't own the market, they're a part of the market.


    Sure. I skimmed your response. Because you keep using the same arguments for something you are wrong about. No one is going to accept a 6th for that. And if a team does, you should count yourself lucky, because that is NOT fair value.
    Dec. 23, 2023 at 1:04 p.m.
    #32
    Thread Starter
    westleysnipez
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    Quoting: Garak
    Sure. I skimmed your response. Because you keep using the same arguments for something you are wrong about. No one is going to accept a 6th for that. And if a team does, you should count yourself lucky, because that is NOT fair value.


    Can you provide an example of a trade where a 3rd party retained less than 2.5M and earned more than a 5th-round pick?
    Garak liked this.
     
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