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NEW Predictions for next season in the NHL

Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:25 p.m.
#76
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Quoting: awatt
Quoting: phillyjabroni


Not attempting to say that Bob=Mase. I am stating that if you remove the Flyers bottom-3rd PK from the SV%, you have a great goalie. I mean, if he played with a team with actual defensemen (Provorov and Gudas are the only defensemen ; Ghost is an offensmen ; Manning is a bounty hunter ; MacDonald is a pylon ; MDZ is a poor mans offense men ; Shultz is scratched ; Streit is decent, nothing to write home about) - he would actually have stats that enhance his play


Stop being bias and realize Mason is not that great of a goalie. He is a good but not great. You curve stats to prove your point, which makes sense. In the last 3 seasons he has a .918 save percentage to go along with a 2.47 GAA. That is not top 10 goalie material. Maybe top 20 but not top 10. He also allows soft goals to go in when they shouldn't and is not very consistent.

Maybe you don't have a great defense but you can't always use that as an excuse to why the goalie's numbers are bad. Elliott is a perfect example of that. Calgary had a good defense and the guy lets in goals from the half boards and stunk up the playoffs and parts of the regular season. Mason would not be a starter on a playoff contending team, reason why he went to the Jets.


How many flyers games have you watch this last year?
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:29 p.m.
#77
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: awatt


Stop being bias and realize Mason is not that great of a goalie. He is a good but not great. You curve stats to prove your point, which makes sense. In the last 3 seasons he has a .918 save percentage to go along with a 2.47 GAA. That is not top 10 goalie material. Maybe top 20 but not top 10. He also allows soft goals to go in when they shouldn't and is not very consistent.

Maybe you don't have a great defense but you can't always use that as an excuse to why the goalie's numbers are bad. Elliott is a perfect example of that. Calgary had a good defense and the guy lets in goals from the half boards and stunk up the playoffs and parts of the regular season. Mason would not be a starter on a playoff contending team, reason why he went to the Jets.


How many flyers games have you watch this last year?


0 lol. I mostly watch my team off the NHL website.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:34 p.m.
#78
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If anyone has watched more than 10 Flyers games, you will understand why Mason is appearing to be inconsistent. It;s the defense. Andrew MacDonald is the second defensemen on the Flyers. The Flyers have Wayne Simmonds on the PK. The Flyers have no good PKers other than Couturier.

I'm not sure why everyone throws 5v5 SV% out the window? I mean, the Flyers PK ranking the lat 3 years : 20th (79.8%) ; 20th (80.5%) ; 27th (77.1%) or 79.1% average.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:36 p.m.
#79
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
If anyone has watched more than 10 Flyers games, you will understand why Mason is appearing to be inconsistent. It;s the defense. Andrew MacDonald is the second defensemen on the Flyers. The Flyers have Wayne Simmonds on the PK. The Flyers have no good PKers other than Couturier.

I'm not sure why everyone throws 5v5 SV% out the window? I mean, the Flyers PK ranking the lat 3 years : 20th (79.8%) ; 20th (80.5%) ; 27th (77.1%) or 79.1% average.


How the hell can you be 20th with that 79.8% is my question?
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:37 p.m.
#80
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Quoting: boltscharge17
Quoting: phillyjabroni
If anyone has watched more than 10 Flyers games, you will understand why Mason is appearing to be inconsistent. It;s the defense. Andrew MacDonald is the second defensemen on the Flyers. The Flyers have Wayne Simmonds on the PK. The Flyers have no good PKers other than Couturier.

I'm not sure why everyone throws 5v5 SV% out the window? I mean, the Flyers PK ranking the lat 3 years : 20th (79.8%) ; 20th (80.5%) ; 27th (77.1%) or 79.1% average.


How the hell can you be 20th with that 79.8% is my question?


https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-penalty-kill-percentage/2016/
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:39 p.m.
#81
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: boltscharge17


How the hell can you be 20th with that 79.8% is my question?


https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-penalty-kill-percentage/2016/


Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: boltscharge17


How the hell can you be 20th with that 79.8% is my question?


https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-penalty-kill-percentage/2016/


Thats pretty sad.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:42 p.m.
#82
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I'd be curious to see the shot distribution at 5v5 for Steve Mason last year or the last few years compared to someone like Corey Crawford.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 12:52 p.m.
#83
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Quoting: awatt
Quoting: phillyjabroni


Not attempting to say that Bob=Mase. I am stating that if you remove the Flyers bottom-3rd PK from the SV%, you have a great goalie. I mean, if he played with a team with actual defensemen (Provorov and Gudas are the only defensemen ; Ghost is an offensmen ; Manning is a bounty hunter ; MacDonald is a pylon ; MDZ is a poor mans offense men ; Shultz is scratched ; Streit is decent, nothing to write home about) - he would actually have stats that enhance his play


Stop being bias and realize Mason is not that great of a goalie. He is a good but not great. You curve stats to prove your point, which makes sense. In the last 3 seasons he has a .918 save percentage to go along with a 2.47 GAA. That is not top 10 goalie material. Maybe top 20 but not top 10. He also allows soft goals to go in when they shouldn't and is not very consistent.

Maybe you don't have a great defense but you can't always use that as an excuse to why the goalie's numbers are bad. Elliott is a perfect example of that. Calgary had a good defense and the guy lets in goals from the half boards and stunk up the playoffs and parts of the regular season. Mason would not be a starter on a playoff contending team, reason why he went to the Jets.


agreed.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 1:00 p.m.
#84
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I have no bias when I discuss any evaluation of players, contrary to what you said.

Can you provide another reason as to why 5v5 SV% isn't "allowed" to be used. I mean, Mason has what.

actually, I did my math wrong on the goalies. Mason has a .931 5v5 SV% and BoB has a .926% 5v5 SV% - editing them all within the hour
Jul. 21, 2017 at 1:17 p.m.
#85
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5v5 SV% NHL Leaders Last 3 Seasons .

.937 - Price
.932 - Anderson ; Raanta ; Murray
.931 - Darling ; Crawford ; Mason ; Dubnyuk
.930 - Holtby
.928 - Lundquvist
.927 - Elliot ; Grubauer* ; Loungo
.926 - Bobrovsky ; Talbot ; Quick
.925 - Rinne
.924 - Andersen ; Gibson
.923 - Fleury ; Smith
.922 - Greiss
.921 - Valiselvski
.920 - Allen
.919 - Bishop
.918 - Jones

*13-14 used due to incomplete statistics in 14-15

edit : the average of the 26 goalies is .926 5v5 SV%
Jul. 21, 2017 at 1:39 p.m.
#86
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
5v5 SV% NHL Leaders Last 3 Seasons .

.937 - Price
.932 - Anderson ; Raanta ; Murray
.931 - Darling ; Crawford ; Mason ; Dubnyuk
.930 - Holtby
.928 - Lundquvist
.927 - Elliot ; Grubauer* ; Loungo
.926 - Bobrovsky ; Talbot ; Quick
.925 - Rinne
.924 - Andersen ; Gibson
.923 - Fleury ; Smith
.922 - Greiss
.921 - Valiselvski
.920 - Allen
.919 - Bishop
.918 - Jones

*13-14 used due to incomplete statistics in 14-15

edit : the average of the 26 goalies is .926 5v5 SV%


Out of curiosity, where are you getting these numbers from? I'm using puckalytics.com, and I have the following:
Price: .9395
Murray: .9343
Raanta: .9341
Dubnyk: .9332
Anderson: .9330
Mason: .9329
Darling: .9327
Holtby: .9323
Crawford: .9319
Schneider: .9290
Rinne: .9289
Luongo: .9287
Lundqvist, Gibson: .9284
Bobrovsky, Elliott: .9283
Quick: .9281
Talbot: .9268
Fleury, Rask: .9265
Andersen: .9256
Bishop: .9255
Vasilevskiy: .9248
Hellebuyck: .9246
Jones: .9202

Reading the FAQ, it seems they use the NHL's official data sheets on their website.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 1:47 p.m.
#87
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Quoting: tadhockey
Quoting: phillyjabroni
5v5 SV% NHL Leaders Last 3 Seasons .

.937 - Price
.932 - Anderson ; Raanta ; Murray
.931 - Darling ; Crawford ; Mason ; Dubnyuk
.930 - Holtby
.928 - Lundquvist
.927 - Elliot ; Grubauer* ; Loungo
.926 - Bobrovsky ; Talbot ; Quick
.925 - Rinne
.924 - Andersen ; Gibson
.923 - Fleury ; Smith
.922 - Greiss
.921 - Valiselvski
.920 - Allen
.919 - Bishop
.918 - Jones

*13-14 used due to incomplete statistics in 14-15

edit : the average of the 26 goalies is .926 5v5 SV%


Out of curiosity, where are you getting these numbers from? I'm using puckalytics.com, and I have the following:
Price: .9395
Murray: .9343
Raanta: .9341
Dubnyk: .9332
Anderson: .9330
Mason: .9329
Darling: .9327
Holtby: .9323
Crawford: .9319
Schneider: .9290
Rinne: .9289
Luongo: .9287
Lundqvist, Gibson: .9284
Bobrovsky, Elliott: .9283
Quick: .9281
Talbot: .9268
Fleury, Rask: .9265
Andersen: .9256
Bishop: .9255
Vasilevskiy: .9248
Hellebuyck: .9246
Jones: .9202

Reading the FAQ, it seems they use the NHL's official data sheets on their website.


I've been using HockeyReference. I've added the last two digits of the SV% 5v5, and then divide by 3
Jul. 21, 2017 at 2:42 p.m.
#88
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: tadhockey


Out of curiosity, where are you getting these numbers from? I'm using puckalytics.com, and I have the following:
Price: .9395
Murray: .9343
Raanta: .9341
Dubnyk: .9332
Anderson: .9330
Mason: .9329
Darling: .9327
Holtby: .9323
Crawford: .9319
Schneider: .9290
Rinne: .9289
Luongo: .9287
Lundqvist, Gibson: .9284
Bobrovsky, Elliott: .9283
Quick: .9281
Talbot: .9268
Fleury, Rask: .9265
Andersen: .9256
Bishop: .9255
Vasilevskiy: .9248
Hellebuyck: .9246
Jones: .9202

Reading the FAQ, it seems they use the NHL's official data sheets on their website.


I've been using HockeyReference. I've added the last two digits of the SV% 5v5, and then divide by 3

Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: awatt


Stop being bias and realize Mason is not that great of a goalie. He is a good but not great. You curve stats to prove your point, which makes sense. In the last 3 seasons he has a .918 save percentage to go along with a 2.47 GAA. That is not top 10 goalie material. Maybe top 20 but not top 10. He also allows soft goals to go in when they shouldn't and is not very consistent.

Maybe you don't have a great defense but you can't always use that as an excuse to why the goalie's numbers are bad. Elliott is a perfect example of that. Calgary had a good defense and the guy lets in goals from the half boards and stunk up the playoffs and parts of the regular season. Mason would not be a starter on a playoff contending team, reason why he went to the Jets.


How many flyers games have you watch this last year?


It doesn't matter. You want to base everything off stats, that's what I am doing. Your PK being so low has a huge part to do with goaltending. If he can't come up with a big save on the PK then you won't win certain games because of special team play. You want to use all the numbers, which is fine. They back up your argument, which is great to get your point across. You just can't use even strength, when he is on the ice for both PP and PK as well.

I'm a fan of one of the most penalized teams, and because our goaltender can bail us out half the time, they have a decent PK percentage. I understand at even strength he is pretty good, but as a whole he is not. You don't get to put the sole blame on the defense when its the goalie at times as well. It is usually 50/50 on that.

On another note, lets create a new thread for this before they get upset with us.
Jul. 21, 2017 at 2:53 p.m.
#89
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I base the majority of my contention off of stats, but actually watching Mason almost every game last year, the defense that has been in front of him is god-awful. The PK has more so to do with the pylons in front of Mason. What the hell is he supposed to do? He can't carry the team like Price.

The defense in front of him is some of the worst in the NHL. I mean, Ivan Provorov was our best defenseman last year.

I get that PK has a lot to do with the goaltending, but when you have Chris Vandevelde and Andrew MacDonald and Brandon Manning on your PK, your're going to get screwed playing Backstrom/Ovi/Oshie/Kuznetzov/Shattenkirk
Jul. 21, 2017 at 10:56 p.m.
#90
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
The Flyers have had a PK under 80% over the last 3 seasons, yet Mason still stands on his head when on 5v5...seems like a PK problem than a Mason problem


Who needs to be your best penalty killer? The goalie. Mason isn't that guy
Jul. 21, 2017 at 11:00 p.m.
#91
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Quoting: krakowitz
Quoting: phillyjabroni
The Flyers have had a PK under 80% over the last 3 seasons, yet Mason still stands on his head when on 5v5...seems like a PK problem than a Mason problem


Who needs to be your best penalty killer? The goalie. Mason isn't that guy


Hahah. Mase plays good enough on the power play given the circumstances. Fail clearing after fail clearing after terrible markups by MacDonald.

Cut the guy some slack. He does what he can given the god-awful circumstances. He thrives on teams that, I don't know, have pylons as PKers
Jul. 21, 2017 at 11:04 p.m.
#92
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: krakowitz


Who needs to be your best penalty killer? The goalie. Mason isn't that guy


Hahah. Mase plays good enough on the power play given the circumstances. Fail clearing after fail clearing after terrible markups by MacDonald.

Cut the guy some slack. He does what he can given the god-awful circumstances. He thrives on teams that, I don't know, have pylons as PKers


Agreed. Boston had a great penalty kill, but Rask was trash
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Jul. 30, 2017 at 6:08 p.m.
#93
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Updated predictions:

Atlantic:
1 OTT 105
2 TOR 103
3 TBL 98
4 BUF 87
5 MTL 85
6 BOS 82
7 DET 78
8 FLA 70

Metropolitan:
1 PIT 118
2 WSH 110
3 NYI 100
4 NYR 99
5 CBJ 92
6 CAR 89
7 PHI 86
8 NJD 67

Central:
1 NSH 107
2 STL 100
3 MIN 90
4 WPG 90
5 DAL 88
6 CHI 88
7 COL 71

Pacific:
1 SJS 119
2 EDM 113
3 CGY 93
4 ARI 92
5 LAK 91
6 ANA 89
7 VAN 77
8 Vegas 59

Playoffs:
OTT - NYR - 4-2 NYR
TOR - TBL - 4-2 TBL
PIT - CBJ - 4-2 PIT
WSH - NYI - 4-1 WSH
NSH - ARI - 4-1 NSH
STL - MIN - 4-0 STL
SJS - LAK - 4-1 SJS
EDM - CGY - 4-3 EDM

TBL - NYR - 4-3 TBL
PIT - WSH - 4-3 WSH
NSH - STL - 4-1 NSH
SJS - EDM - 4-3 SJS

WSH - TBL - 4-1 WSH
SJS - NSH - 4-3 SJS

SJS - WSH - 4-2 WSH
Conn Smythe: Alex Ovechkin
Jul. 30, 2017 at 6:20 p.m.
#94
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Updated predictions:

Atlantic:
1 OTT 105
2 TOR 103
3 TBL 98
4 BUF 87
5 MTL 85
6 BOS 82
7 DET 78
8 FLA 70

Metropolitan:
1 PIT 118
2 WSH 110
3 NYI 100
4 NYR 99
5 CBJ 92
6 CAR 89
7 PHI 86
8 NJD 67

Central:
1 NSH 107
2 STL 100
3 MIN 90
4 WPG 90
5 DAL 88
6 CHI 88
7 COL 71

Pacific:
1 SJS 119
2 EDM 113
3 CGY 93
4 ARI 92
5 LAK 91
6 ANA 89
7 VAN 77
8 Vegas 59

Playoffs:
OTT - NYR - 4-2 NYR
TOR - TBL - 4-2 TBL
PIT - CBJ - 4-2 PIT
WSH - NYI - 4-1 WSH
NSH - ARI - 4-1 NSH
STL - MIN - 4-0 STL
SJS - LAK - 4-1 SJS
EDM - CGY - 4-3 EDM

TBL - NYR - 4-3 TBL
PIT - WSH - 4-3 WSH
NSH - STL - 4-1 NSH
SJS - EDM - 4-3 SJS

WSH - TBL - 4-1 WSH
SJS - NSH - 4-3 SJS

SJS - WSH - 4-2 WSH
Conn Smythe: Alex Ovechkin


How did Anaheim get worse this offseason? Chicago?
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Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:13 p.m.
#95
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Black Lives Matter
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Quoting: sloofoot40
Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Updated predictions:

Atlantic:
1 OTT 105
2 TOR 103
3 TBL 98
4 BUF 87
5 MTL 85
6 BOS 82
7 DET 78
8 FLA 70

Metropolitan:
1 PIT 118
2 WSH 110
3 NYI 100
4 NYR 99
5 CBJ 92
6 CAR 89
7 PHI 86
8 NJD 67

Central:
1 NSH 107
2 STL 100
3 MIN 90
4 WPG 90
5 DAL 88
6 CHI 88
7 COL 71

Pacific:
1 SJS 119
2 EDM 113
3 CGY 93
4 ARI 92
5 LAK 91
6 ANA 89
7 VAN 77
8 Vegas 59

Playoffs:
OTT - NYR - 4-2 NYR
TOR - TBL - 4-2 TBL
PIT - CBJ - 4-2 PIT
WSH - NYI - 4-1 WSH
NSH - ARI - 4-1 NSH
STL - MIN - 4-0 STL
SJS - LAK - 4-1 SJS
EDM - CGY - 4-3 EDM

TBL - NYR - 4-3 TBL
PIT - WSH - 4-3 WSH
NSH - STL - 4-1 NSH
SJS - EDM - 4-3 SJS

WSH - TBL - 4-1 WSH
SJS - NSH - 4-3 SJS

SJS - WSH - 4-2 WSH
Conn Smythe: Alex Ovechkin


How did Anaheim get worse this offseason? Chicago?


Anaheim's only trying to bug the other team. their division is pretty good so it's gonna be hard to get in.

Chicago lost Panarin, Hossa, etc and are getting worse.
Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:28 p.m.
#96
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Quoting: sloofoot40


How did Anaheim get worse this offseason? Chicago?


Anaheim's only trying to bug the other team. their division is pretty good so it's gonna be hard to get in.

Chicago lost Panarin, Hossa, etc and are getting worse.


?????
Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:30 p.m.
#97
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Quoting: gojetsgo
Quoting: rangersandislesfan


Anaheim's only trying to bug the other team. their division is pretty good so it's gonna be hard to get in.

Chicago lost Panarin, Hossa, etc and are getting worse.


?????


wtf does that even mean lol
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Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:38 p.m.
#98
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Quoting: Pasta88Sauce
Quoting: gojetsgo


?????


wtf does that even mean lol


i mean Kesler, Perry, Bieksa, Boll, Ritchie, etc are all about bugging the other team, injuring players, etc.
Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:40 p.m.
#99
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan


i mean Kesler, Perry, Bieksa, Boll, Ritchie, etc are all about bugging the other team, injuring players, etc.


so they are only trying to bug teams and not win games? shakes headshakes head. They didnt get worse. They are still a huge threat
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Jul. 30, 2017 at 11:42 p.m.
#100
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