Already at age 34 you've got to think Stamkos wants some term instead of just a two year deal. Tampa will probably present a competitive long term offer at a lower AAV I have no doubt, but it should probably be lucrative enough to make him stay at home in Tampa.
Even though there was a bad start to this year with no Vasilevskiy as long as TB is competitive and contending for divisional spots I just can't see him packing up and going somewhere else.

Value-wise that would probably be fair for Manson but I think the fact he's the only really physical and somewhat nasty D the Avs would have at that point means I see the Avs keeping him and would be more likely to trade Girard if they move a D. Possibly an unpopular take but I see him as surprisingly harder to replace even though I suspect Girard would be more coveted by teams and cost more in a trade.

I'm one who disagrees with that. Manson is much older than Girard and has less term; I believe they can find another 3rd pair level guy that can play physically enough to replace that aspect of Manson's game even if he can't replace the offense and puck-moving. Plus, Manson has a lengthy injury history; what happens if Manson gets hurt 20 games into next season and they have no Girard? I am in the camp that believes it would be a mistake to trade Girard rather than Manson if they do go down the path of trading a D to create cap space.

Yep, you and I are very much in opposite camps on this one as far as which D to trade, I'd noted that one previously. I can however see both sides of the argument there. Thing is I'd prefer they traded one of the forwards over any more of the D even if Girard would be my choice there ahead of Manson. As much as I've liked Colton's play I think it was a mistake to sign him to that deal (they pretty much had to after trading for him and probably were hoping for less and I think it's come back to bite them in the proverbial) probably even more than signing Manson to his. He would be my first choice to move if any. He's the most easily replaced of the 4-5 mil contracts imo.

I understand you're position as well. I agree that moving Colton would probably be the best play. I see a few options to replace that 3C spot if they did decide to let Colton go: Wennberg, Roslovic, possibly Domi. All of those come with their own risks but if they can get Wenny on a "bounce-back" deal, he could tide them over until Ritchie is ready.