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Pick Values in Trade Downs

Created by: NHLfan10506
Team: 2024-25 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: May 9, 2024
Published: May 9, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
There are a handful of models that predict pick value. I back-tested two popular ones, The Athletic and Puck Pedia. There are a number of ways at measuring these models. This is simplest way I can put into an ACGM.

I took a bunch of recent trade downs where two picks were exchanged for one. For each trade, I locked in the two highest picks as constants, assigned them the appropriate values, and then used their model to predict the third pick.

For example, at the 2015 draft, Tampa Bay traded down from #28 to #33. Using the two models, they offered two suggested for what the Islanders should be adding to #33 to jump up to #28. The Puck Pedia model suggested the 72nd pick was required. The Athletic model said it took the #92 pick.

PuckPedia (PP):
-- #28 pick = 12.5
-- #33 pick = 10.0
-- #72 pick = 2.5 (predicted)

The Athletic (Ath):
-- #28 pick = 3.1
-- #33 pick = 2.6
-- #92 pick = 0.5 (predicted)

Actual Trade
-- #28 pick
-- #33 pick
-- #72 pick (actual)

Remember the first picks are locked in as constant, so we are only predicting that third pick. In this case, the PP model got correct. The Athletic model was 20 draft slots off.

Here is another example from 2005 when Atlanta traded back from #12 to #16. PP Model said NYR had to add the 43rd to pick to jump from #16 to #12. The Athletic said all it took was 73rd overall.

PuckPedia (PP):
-- #12 pick = 30.0
-- #16 pick = 23.5
-- #43 pick = 6.5 (predicted)

The Athletic (Ath):
-- #12 pick = 5.5
-- #16 pick = 4.7
-- #73 pick = 0.8 (predicted)

Actual Trade
-- #12 pick
-- #16 pick
-- #41 pick (actual)

The Puck Pedia model is much better predictor for these picks. On average, they were about 3 draft slots off, while the Athletic was about 28 draft slots off (almost a full round).

--------

Here is the data

#. Year TM1 Pick -- TM2 Pick, Pick (two predicted values)

1. 2023 DET #43 -- NSH #47, #147 (PP: 115; Ath: 140)
2. 2020 CGY #19 -- NYR #22, #72 (PP: 68; Ath: 92)
3. 2020 CGY #22 -- WAS #24, #80 (PP: 87; Ath: 140)
4. 2020 SJS #34 -- BUF #38, #99 (PP: 91; Ath: 116)
5. 2020 TOR #44 -- OTT #58, #63 (PP: 73; Ath: 78)
6. 2020 DET #45 -- LAK #50, #96 (PP: 110; Ath: 140)
7. 2017 CHI #26 -- DAL #29, #70 (PP: 83; Ath: 116)
8. 2016 NJD #11 -- OTT #12, #80 (PP: 80; Ath: 140)
9. 2016 WAS #26 -- STL #28, #87 (PP: 98; Ath: 140)
10. 2015 TOR #24 -- PHI #29, #61 (PP: 63; Ath: 92)
11. 2015 TBL #28 -- NYI #33, #72 (PP: 72; Ath: 92)
12. 2015 TOR #29 -- CBJ #34, #68 (PP: 73; Ath: 92)
13. 2015 NYR #57 -- WAS #62, #113 (PP: 147; Ath: 140)
14. 2015 ARI #60 -- CGY #76, #83 (PP: 96; Ath: 102)
15. 2014 TBL #28 -- NYI #35, #57 (PP: 62; Ath: 78)
16. 2014 BUF #39 -- WAS #44, #74 (PP: 93; Ath: 116)
17. 2014 NSH #46 -- SJS #51, #100 (PP: 113; Ath: 140)
18. 2013 DET #18 -- SJS #20, #58 (PP: 78; Ath: 140)
19. 2013 NJD #39 -- ARI #42, #73 (PP: 121; Ath: 140)
20. 2011 ANA #22 -- TOR #30, #39 (PP: 48; Ath: 73)
21. 2011 DET #24 -- OTT #35, #48 (PP: 45; Ath: 61)
22. 2011 FLA #47 -- SJS #59, #78 (PP: 83; Ath: 92)
23. 2011 VAN #60 -- MIN #70, #100 (PP: 114; Ath: 116)
24. 2010 FLA #15 -- LAK #19, #59 (PP: 50; Ath: 78)
25. 2010 CHI #30 -- NYI #35, #58 (PP: 75; Ath: 92)
26. 2010 COL #47 -- LAK #49, #109 (PP: 162; Ath: 205)
27. 2010 FLA #59 -- MIN #69, #99 (PP: 113; Ath: 116)
28. 2009 CGY #20 -- NJD #23, #84 (PP: 69; Ath: 92)
29. 2009 ANA #21 -- CBJ #26, #37 (PP: 57; Ath: 84)
30. 2009 DET #29 -- TBL #32, #75 (PP: 91; Ath: 116)
31. 2009 NYI #56 -- CBJ #62, #92 (PP: 128; Ath: 140)
32. 2008 NYI #7 -- NSH #9, #40 (PP: 47; Ath: 73)
33. 2008 LAK #12 -- BUF #13, #74 (PP: 83; Ath: 140)
34. 2008 ANA #12 -- LAK #17, #28 (PP: 39; Ath: 65)
35. 2008 NSH #15 -- OTT #18, #70 (PP: 57; Ath: 84)
36. 2008 NJD #21 -- WAS #23, #54 (PP: 86; Ath: 116)
37. 2008 NJD #23 -- MIN #24, #73 (PP: 124; Ath: 205)
38. 2008 ANA #28 -- ARI #35, #39 (PP: 62; Ath: 78)
39. 2007 TBL #16 -- MIN #19, #42 (PP: 59; Ath: 92)
40. 2007 CGY #18 -- STL #24, #70 (PP: 47; Ath: 73)
41. 2007 ARI #21 -- EDM #30, #36 (PP: 44; Ath: 65)
42. 2007 WAS #28 -- SJS #41, #57 (PP: 48; Ath: 61)
43. 2006 MTL #16 -- SJS #20, #53 (PP: 52; Ath: 84)
44. 2006 NJD #25 -- STL #30, #77 (PP: 65; Ath: 92)
45. 2006 TBL #47 -- PHI #89, #112 (PP: 57; Ath: 61)
46. 2005 ATL #12 -- NYR #16, #41 (PP: 43; Ath: 73)
47. 2005 PHI #20 -- FLA #29, #41 (PP: 42; Ath: 61)
48. 2005 COL #27 -- WAS #47, #52 (PP: 41; Ath: 51)
49. 2004 CBJ #4 -- CAR #8, #59 (PP: 24; Ath: 37)
50. 2004 DAL #20 -- NJD #22, #88 (PP: 83; Ath: 102)
51. 2004 NYR #37 -- FLA #50, #73 (PP: 63; Ath: 78)
52. 2003 EDM #17 -- NJD #22, #68 (PP: 49; Ath: 73)
53. 2003 NYR #43 -- SJS #50, #75 (PP: 91; Ath: 116)
54. 2002 CGY #9 -- FLA #10, #99 (PP: 73; Ath: 116)
55. 2002 CBJ #30 -- ATL #41, #96 (PP: 54; Ath: 69)
56. 2002 TBL #52 -- SJS #60, #162 (PP: 109; Ath: 116)
57. 2001 CGY #11 -- PHX #14, #41 (PP: 48; Ath: 84)
58. 1992 TOR #5 -- NYI #8, #32 (PP: 32; Ath: 51)


-----

Athletic: https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/05/06155402/Screen-Shot-2020-05-05-at-4.55.33-PM.png

Puck Pedia: https://puckpedia.com/pickvalue

-----

The trades are just examples

I did not make another trades or FA signings
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$6,200,000
2$1,000,000
2$1,000,000
2$850,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
Trades
1.
NJD
    2024 1st (MIN - #13)
    2024 2nd (MIN - #45)

    PP value = 34.15
    MIN
      2024 1st (NJD - #10)


      PP value = 34.22
      2.
      NJD
        2024 1st (STL - #16)
        2024 2nd (STL - #48)
        2024 2nd (TOR - #56)
        2024 3rd (STL - #81)

        PP value = 34.89
        STL
          2024 1st (NJD - #10)




          PP value = 34.22
          3.
          NJD
            2024 1st (TBL - #20)
            2024 2nd (CHI - #34)
            2024 2nd (VAN - #62)
            2024 3rd (CHI - #67)

            PP value = 34.49
            CHI
              2024 1st (NJD - #10)




              PP value = 34.22
              4.
              NJD
                2024 1st (EDM - #24)
                2024 2nd (ANA - #35)
                2024 2nd (BOS - #59)
                2024 3rd (SJS - #66)
                2024 3rd (PIT - #79)
                2024 4th (ANA - #100)

                PP value = 34.21
                ANA
                  2024 1st (NJD - #10)






                  PP value = 34.22
                  Recapture Fees
                  DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
                  2024
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the WPG
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the COL
                  Logo of the NJD
                  2025
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the WPG
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  2026
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the DAL
                  Logo of the WPG
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  Logo of the NJD
                  ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
                  23$87,700,000$79,176,397$1,538,897$5,950,000$8,523,603
                  Left WingCentreRight Wing
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $8,800,000$8,800,000
                  LW, RW
                  NMC
                  UFA - 7
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $8,000,000$8,000,000
                  C
                  UFA - 6
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $7,875,000$7,875,000
                  RW, LW
                  NMC
                  UFA - 7
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $6,000,000$6,000,000
                  LW, RW
                  NMC
                  UFA - 3
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $7,250,000$7,250,000
                  C
                  M-NTC
                  UFA - 3
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $6,200,000$6,200,000
                  RW, C
                  RFA
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $800,000$800,000
                  LW
                  RFA
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $3,150,000$3,150,000
                  C, LW
                  NTC
                  UFA - 2
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
                  RW, LW
                  RFA - 1
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $800,000$800,000
                  LW, RW
                  UFA - 2
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $1,000,000$1,000,000
                  RW, C
                  UFA - 1
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $800,000$800,000
                  RW, C
                  RFA
                  Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$1,850,000$2M)
                  LD/RD
                  RFA - 1
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$3,250,000$3M)
                  RD
                  RFA - 2
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $1,925,000$1,925,000
                  G
                  M-NTC
                  UFA - 1
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $3,400,000$3,400,000
                  LD
                  M-NTC
                  UFA - 4
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $9,000,000$9,000,000
                  RD
                  NMC
                  UFA - 4
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $1,000,000$1,000,000
                  G
                  RFA
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $1,050,000$1,050,000
                  LD
                  RFA - 1
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $4,400,000$4,400,000
                  RD
                  M-NTC
                  UFA - 3
                  ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $1,350,000$1,350,000
                  RW
                  UFA - 1
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $850,000$850,000
                  LD
                  RFA
                  Logo of the New Jersey Devils
                  $1,000,000$1,000,000
                  G
                  RFA

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                  May 9 at 3:41 p.m.
                  #1
                  2285 Stanley Cup Cha
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                  Drafting is even more of an imperfect science in the NHL than the NFL and NBA, just doesn't feel worth moving up most of the time, and this is coming from a team that benefitted quite a bit from a trade up (2020 for JJ Peterka)
                  May 9 at 3:41 p.m.
                  #2
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                  Do you actually think a trade down makes sense for NJ? Or just doing an analysis of pick values?
                  May 9 at 3:42 p.m.
                  #3
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                  In this draft I wouldn't even consider paying 45 to move from 13 to 10, I'll just take my chances at 13 with a similar caliber prospect
                  May 9 at 3:47 p.m.
                  #4
                  Thread Starter
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                  Quoting: Jded
                  Do you actually think a trade down makes sense for NJ? Or just doing an analysis of pick values?


                  Was just curious which model to go by since they suggested very different things.

                  The answer: Puckpedia Calculator
                  Jded liked this.
                  May 9 at 3:50 p.m.
                  #5
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                  Quoting: Caerii
                  In this draft I wouldn't even consider paying 45 to move from 13 to 10, I'll just take my chances at 13 with a similar caliber prospect


                  I hear ya...there are six guys that move the needle for me. If all six are gone by #10...I'm hoping we move down and add players
                  May 9 at 3:53 p.m.
                  #6
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                  Joined: Jun. 2018
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                  Sound of hockey pick value chart puts the Chicago trade at #10OA being worth 354.44 and the collection of Hawks picks being 420.49. the NJ 1st for the Tampa 1st and Chicago 2nd are almost right on in their value chart. I think the higher pick should command a premium and "win" the trade, but probably not by this much. That said, I think the Hawks are open for business to consolidate lesser picks into better as they have a lot of picks (7 in the top 100 currently).
                  Patches liked this.
                  May 9 at 3:54 p.m.
                  #7
                  Lets Go Blues
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                  @nhlfan10506 always appreciate your analysis and envy your free time happy

                  FWIW that package seems steep to me from the STL side but 16oa is starting to look like no-man's land in this draft whereas a much-needed impact RHD should be there at 10. I'm thinking the Blues should move up or down but we'll see how it unfolds.
                  NHLfan10506 liked this.
                  May 9 at 3:58 p.m.
                  #8
                  Thread Starter
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                  Quoting: wojohawk
                  Sound of hockey pick value chart puts the Chicago trade at #10OA being worth 354.44 and the collection of Hawks picks being 420.49. the NJ 1st for the Tampa 1st and Chicago 2nd are almost right on in their value chart. I think the higher pick should command a premium and "win" the trade, but probably not by this much. That said, I think the Hawks are open for business to consolidate lesser picks into better as they have a lot of picks (7 in the top 100 currently).


                  I have never heard of sound of hockey.

                  But the whole point of this exercise was to ignore my gut was telling and jump at the data.

                  Would have to back test the #.
                  May 9 at 4:13 p.m.
                  #9
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                  Quoting: NHLfan10506
                  I have never heard of sound of hockey.

                  But the whole point of this exercise was to ignore my gut was telling and jump at the data.

                  Would have to back test the #.


                  Whenever I have played with pick values, most point me to sound of hockey as the chart that is most realistic and I tend to agree. Most other models overvalue later picks particularly late 2nd and certainly later. For example, if you use the Athletic chart, it values early 3rds at 1 pt and a late 1st at 3 (or as low as 2.7 for #32OA). I am pretty confident no one is ever trading even the lowest 1st for three 3rds. By contrast, the sound of hockey would require 9.5 of the highest 3rds to get the #32 OA. That part of their model makes complete sense intuitively if you conceed that most meaningful NHL players come out of the 1st or 2nd round and the odds are pretty long for lesser picks.
                  NHLfan10506 liked this.
                  May 9 at 4:30 p.m.
                  #10
                  I Love J Boqvist
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                  Joined: Jan. 2023
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                  From my interpretation:

                  Puckpedia is based on trade values historically.

                  The Athletic is based on the expected results produced by those picks.

                  So in makes sense that Puckpedia falls in line with previous trades
                   
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