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Re If Marner Waives

Created by: CertifiedAverage
Team: 2024-25 Columbus Blue Jackets
Initial Creation Date: May 23, 2024
Published: May 26, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Made in response to this ACGM by @Pavalec:
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/840640

It made me curious to look at it from the CBJ side.

NB: I'm personally not a huge fan of Marner, but I got curious.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,315,000
2$900,000
6$5,235,000
2$2,235,000
1$900,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
5$5,900,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Lindstrom, Cayden
3$950,000
Trades
1.
CBJ
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (CBJ)
PHI
  1. 2025 2nd round pick (CBJ)
2.
CBJ
  1. 2024 5th round pick (STL)
STL
  1. Bean, Jake [RFA Rights]
3.
VGK
  1. Texier, Alexandre [RFA Rights]
  2. 2024 3rd round pick (LAK)
4.
TOR
  1. Johnson, Kent [RFA Rights]
  2. Severson, Damon
  3. 2024 2nd round pick (CBJ)
5.
CBJ
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (NSH)
NSH
  1. Boqvist, Adam
  2. 2024 4th round pick (CBJ)
6.
DET
  1. Merzlikins, Elvis ($1,900,000 retained)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the STL
Logo of the CBJ
2025
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the VGK
2026
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the CBJ
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$87,700,000$87,275,483$0$4,200,000$424,517
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$8,700,000$8,700,000
C, RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,200,000$3M)
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,750,000$9,750,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$3,750,000$3,750,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$5,235,000$5,235,000
RW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$925,000$925,000
LW, C, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,315,000$2,315,000
RW, LW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,235,000$2,235,000
C
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,583,333$9,583,333
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
$5,900,000$5,900,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,050,000$1,050,000
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,725,000$4,725,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$4,750,000$4,750,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$2,294,150$2,294,150
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$1,000,000$1M)
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$900,000$900,000
LD/RD
UFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RW, C
UFA - 1

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May 26 at 5:53 a.m.
#1
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Extremely unlikely Marner waives to Columbus
May 26 at 7:28 a.m.
#2
SkateOrDie
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CBJ isn't retaining almost 2 mil on Elvis.

Nor are they trading away 21yo Johnson.
May 26 at 7:42 a.m.
#3
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I can’t see Marner waiving for CBJ or extending there.
May 26 at 9:42 a.m.
#4
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Edited May 26 at 9:50 a.m.
Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
CBJ isn't retaining almost 2 mil on Elvis.

Nor are they trading away 21yo Johnson.


They most certainly are retaining on Merzlikins, because it's better than a buyout from a cap perspective.

As for Johnson, I personally am not in favour of trading for Marner specifically, but Johnson's ceiling is probably a Marner-level type of player.
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May 26 at 10:02 a.m.
#5
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I'd classify this under "aggressive offseason", in which case it's probably one of my favorites...which means trade values likely skew Columbus' way. That's especially true on Marner, I think that's the max offer CBJ give, but it's also lower than where other teams would be willing to go.

I wouldn't change much. A lot of things have to go right (Fantilli taking a huge step, Laine bouncing back fully, Marner meshing well, Tarasov playing like he did at his peak last season, Nylander finding more magic in the tank, and basically half the bottom-6 developing), but it's not out of the question that this team pushes for a wildcard spot next year.
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May 26 at 10:15 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
They most certainly are retaining on Merzlikins, because it's better than a buyout from a cap perspective.

As for Johnson, I personally am not in favour of trading for Marner specifically, but Johnson's ceiling is probably a Marner-level type of player.


CBJ isn't retaining on Elvis. You can keep having your opinions and then there is what CBJ will actually do.

They also aren't trading 21 yo Johnson for rental Marner. You can go off with your "valuation" all you want. But those are just facts.
No one is giving up anything close to that for rental Marner who want's a 12+ mil extension. It's laughable to think otherwise.
May 26 at 10:40 a.m.
#7
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Edited May 26 at 10:49 a.m.
Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
CBJ isn't retaining on Elvis. You can keep having your opinions and then there is what CBJ will actually do.

They also aren't trading 21 yo Johnson for rental Marner. You can go off with your "valuation" all you want. But those are just facts.
No one is giving up anything close to that for rental Marner who want's a 12+ mil extension. It's laughable to think otherwise.


If they retain $1.9M on Merzlikins instead of buying him out, it results in a cap hit that is $750,000 higher in 24-25, $275,000 higher in 25-26, $1,025,000 lower in 26-27 and $1,750,000 lower for the remaining three seasons of the buyout. CBJ are going to want to start competing from 2025 onwards. I don't see an organisation trying to win a Stanley Cup choosing a buyout over this scenario, where they give up no assets.

This, like all other non-Leafs centred Marner trades, assumes he extends.
May 26 at 10:44 a.m.
#8
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Edited May 26 at 1:30 p.m.
Quoting: CaseyFlyman
I'd classify this under "aggressive offseason", in which case it's probably one of my favorites...which means trade values likely skew Columbus' way. That's especially true on Marner, I think that's the max offer CBJ give, but it's also lower than where other teams would be willing to go.

I wouldn't change much. A lot of things have to go right (Fantilli taking a huge step, Laine bouncing back fully, Marner meshing well, Tarasov playing like he did at his peak last season, Nylander finding more magic in the tank, and basically half the bottom-6 developing), but it's not out of the question that this team pushes for a wildcard spot next year.


It's optimistic, to say the least, if Marner is considered a good long-term target. What made it intriguing to me was Severson (who also has to waive) going the other way. I like Severson and he is underrated, but he is overpaid and it's going to be worse towards the end of the contract.

EDIT: And yes, if this was the team going into 2024-25, I'd be very optimistic with regards to them pushing for a wildcard spot. Marner may not be a preferred target of mine (mostly due to cap hit vs. effectiveness in the playoffs), but he is one hell of a player and in the right environment, he could very well be a lethal weapon.
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May 26 at 10:51 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
If they retain $1.9M on Merzlikins instead of buying him out, it results in a cap hit that $750,000 higher in 24-25, $275,000 higher in 25-26, $1,025,000 lower in 26-27 and $1,750,000 for the remaining three seasons of the buyout. CBJ are going to want to start competing from 2025 onwards. I don't see an organisation trying to win a Stanley Cup choosing a buyout over this scenario.

This, like all other non-Leafs centred Marner trades, assumes he extends.


Marner isn't extending for CBJ FFS if that is your logic just hang it up. Marner will go test FA because he doesn't owe anyone anything nor is CBJ going to give him 12 mil per.

You are also over here assuming CBJ is buying out Elvis.
A team with no real organizational depth in net, in one of the worst goalie markets in years, isn't buying out a goalie.
May 26 at 11:02 a.m.
#10
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Edited May 26 at 11:34 a.m.
Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
Marner isn't extending for CBJ FFS if that is your logic just hang it up. Marner will go test FA because he doesn't owe anyone anything nor is CBJ going to give him 12 mil per.

You are also over here assuming CBJ is buying out Elvis.
A team with no real organizational depth in net, in one of the worst goalie markets in years, isn't buying out a goalie.


I don't see any team trading for Marner without getting an extension.

They will get rid of Merzlikins if the reasons are related to off-ice issues. Judging from the end of the season, I'd say Merzlikins has played his last game as a Blue Jacket.
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May 26 at 3:05 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
Marner isn't extending for CBJ FFS if that is your logic just hang it up. Marner will go test FA because he doesn't owe anyone anything nor is CBJ going to give him 12 mil per.


This is such a lazy argument. The whole premise of this specific ACGM is that he waives for Columbus, and he's not waiving for somewhere he wouldn't consider extending. Why in the world would he waive for a bottom-4 team as a UFA-to-be otherwise? Why would Columbus ever consider trading anything for Marner in an assumed non-playoff year unless there was an extension in place?

Suspend your disbelief for one second for the sake of a conversation. If he's not going to extend anywhere because he's going to test free agency, he's going to stay in Toronto and then walk.

Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck

You are also over here assuming CBJ is buying out Elvis.
A team with no real organizational depth in net, in one of the worst goalie markets in years, isn't buying out a goalie.


Tarasov and Greaves both proved last season that they're better options already. We have organizational depth, we just need a vet backup that isn't going to b**** to the media and demand a trade when he plays himself out of 1st or 2nd string. Hence the probable buyout.
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May 26 at 3:48 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: CaseyFlyman
This is such a lazy argument. The whole premise of this specific ACGM is that he waives for Columbus, and he's not waiving for somewhere he wouldn't consider extending. Why in the world would he waive for a bottom-4 team as a UFA-to-be otherwise? Why would Columbus ever consider trading anything for Marner in an assumed non-playoff year unless there was an extension in place?

Suspend your disbelief for one second for the sake of a conversation. If he's not going to extend anywhere because he's going to test free agency, he's going to stay in Toronto and then walk.



Tarasov and Greaves both proved last season that they're better options already. We have organizational depth, we just need a vet backup that isn't going to b**** to the media and demand a trade when he plays himself out of 1st or 2nd string. Hence the probable buyout.


1. teams are trying a guy out be cause he whines. Especially when he's not starting.
2. Greaves played 9 games with a 3.49 ga 0.908 %.... that isn't good man. Nor does it really say NHL ready.
3. maybe Marner just wants out of TOR as the only reason he waives. That doesn't mean he'd resign anywhere. You are trying to defend the absolutely absurd to begin with.
May 26 at 3:50 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
I don't see any team trading for Marner without getting an extension.

They will get rid of Merzlikins if the reasons are related to off-ice issues. Judging from the end of the season, I'd say Merzlikins has played his last game as a Blue Jacket.


CBJ getting rid of Elvis has nothing to do with the fact that they aren't retaining on him.
A guy whining doesn't mean teams just swallow cap. That isn't how it works.

Marner has no need to sign an extension because he's traded. None. Get over that.
May 26 at 4:31 p.m.
#14
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Edited May 26 at 4:44 p.m.
Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
CBJ getting rid of Elvis has nothing to do with the fact that they aren't retaining on him.
A guy whining doesn't mean teams just swallow cap. That isn't how it works.

Marner has no need to sign an extension because he's traded. None. Get over that.


First of all: I replied to you saying that they wouldn't move Merzlikins because of their goalie situation. Stop trying to move the goalposts. Second of all: yes, it absolutely does. Reports uniformly point to that they are going their separate ways due to off-ice issues. To get rid of him, they either trade him or buy him out. He has very low value right now, so if they trade him and don't retain, they are going to have to pay to do that. They can afford to retain on him and it's the best option cap-wise. You have offered absolutely zero arguments as to why they wouldn't want to retain on him in that scenario. You just say they won't do it. And that they won't get rid of him, contradicting all reporting done by people with actual connections to the Blue Jackets.

You are so far off with my motivations for making this ACGM that I'm not certain that you even read the short description above, let alone any of my replies to you. It would be amusing if it wasn't so tiresome. I have nothing to "get over." I am not even convinced that a Marner trade would be in Columbus' best interest. I never claimed that Marner has to sign an extension if he is traded. I am just saying that teams in general have very little reason to trade away assets in the off-season for a rental like Marner unless he extends with them. If he doesn't want to do it, they can just wait for him to get to free agency and not lose any assets for it. Teams have no obligation to trade for Marner just because Toronto want to get rid of him either.

It seems to me that you are not acting in good faith and are just being argumentative for the sake of it. So I'm just going to wish you a good day and sincerely hope that you have better things to do with your time than re-creating a Monty Python sketch on the internet.
May 27 at 12:57 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: CertifiedAverage
First of all: I replied to you saying that they wouldn't move Merzlikins because of their goalie situation. Stop trying to move the goalposts. Second of all: yes, it absolutely does. Reports uniformly point to that they are going their separate ways due to off-ice issues. To get rid of him, they either trade him or buy him out. He has very low value right now, so if they trade him and don't retain, they are going to have to pay to do that. They can afford to retain on him and it's the best option cap-wise. You have offered absolutely zero arguments as to why they wouldn't want to retain on him in that scenario. You just say they won't do it. And that they won't get rid of him, contradicting all reporting done by people with actual connections to the Blue Jackets.

You are so far off with my motivations for making this ACGM that I'm not certain that you even read the short description above, let alone any of my replies to you. It would be amusing if it wasn't so tiresome. I have nothing to "get over." I am not even convinced that a Marner trade would be in Columbus' best interest. I never claimed that Marner has to sign an extension if he is traded. I am just saying that teams in general have very little reason to trade away assets in the off-season for a rental like Marner unless he extends with them. If he doesn't want to do it, they can just wait for him to get to free agency and not lose any assets for it. Teams have no obligation to trade for Marner just because Toronto want to get rid of him either.

It seems to me that you are not acting in good faith and are just being argumentative for the sake of it. So I'm just going to wish you a good day and sincerely hope that you have better things to do with your time than re-creating a Monty Python sketch on the internet.


and the whole conversation above is starting around the fact that CBJ isn't retaining on Elvis. Not that they won't move him. The only one moving the goalpost there is you.

Teams can not make signing an extension a part of the trade. They would have to sign him before hand. You are just blowing smoke at this point.
Fact is it doesn't matter if Marner signs an extension or not. They still aren't trading away a 21 yo 5OA 2 seasons in. That $#!t just isn't happening.
 
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