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Forums/Armchair-GM

From an outsiders perspective

Created by: exo2769
Team: 2024-25 Nashville Predators
Initial Creation Date: May 26, 2024
Published: May 26, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,000,000
6$5,000,000
4$5,500,000
Trades
NSH
  1. Marner, Mitchell
Additional Details:
Neither play has term. So whether or not extensions exist....it's a fair discussion on both sides. BUT a trade can be done with either BOTH having extensions or NEITHER having extensions.

If this return seems underwhelming...one player has a NMC and the other doesn't. Less convincing needed for Juuso...so there's a bit of leverage that NSH has. Also, cap space does cost alot...so it's not just the picks TOR is getting.
TOR
  1. Saros, Juuse ($2,000,000 retained)
  2. 2024 2nd round pick (WPG)
  3. 2024 2nd round pick (TBL)
Additional Details:
Goalies simply don't have as much trade value as wingers.
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TBL
2025
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the COL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
2026
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NSH
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$87,700,000$84,900,532$0$932,500$2,799,468
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
UFA
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$3,185,000$3,185,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$2,857,143$2,857,143
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$797,500$797,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$800,000$800,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$900,000$900,000
RW, C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, RW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$9,059,000$9,059,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RD
UFA
$3,000,000$3,000,000
G
UFA
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$918,333$918,333
LD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 1

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May 26 at 9:38 a.m.
#1
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Leafs Pass. A few things you added that I disagree on

a NMC doesnt give the team trading for a player leverage, that has nothing to do with value. This isnt a player asking to be traded, so if you cant get what (as the Leafs GM) you think is fair value you just dont make the trade

Cap space is a biproduct of the trade, its not included in the trade. Nashvilles offer doesnt read. Saaros, 2 2nds and 6 million in cap space. Just about any team Toronto would be trading Marner to would give them some sort of cap relief. The great the cap relief does not = the lesser return on players.

With all that being said, Leafs decline, at least I hope they do. Saaros is not the guy
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May 26 at 9:42 a.m.
#2
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exo2769
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Quoting: SNipeSHowInc
Leafs Pass. A few things you added that I disagree on

a NMC doesnt give the team trading for a player leverage, that has nothing to do with value. This isnt a player asking to be traded, so if you cant get what (as the Leafs GM) you think is fair value you just dont make the trade

Cap space is a biproduct of the trade, its not included in the trade. Nashvilles offer doesnt read. Saaros, 2 2nds and 6 million in cap space. Just about any team Toronto would be trading Marner to would give them some sort of cap relief. The great the cap relief does not = the lesser return on players.

With all that being said, Leafs decline, at least I hope they do. Saaros is not the guy


We're allowed to disagree, that's one of the great things about Capfriendly. Cap space definitely had a cost. That's my opinion. Retention happens all the time. Dumps too! Those have additional cost.

Also, "asking to be traded" vs picking your spot. Are things you and me will never know for sure. Patrick Kane picked his spot and the Hawks got a 2nd rounder. NMCs can 100% impact a trade. That's also my opinion, but I'm doing my best to base those on facts/real life examples as a basis for my opinion.

I do agree that the most likely outcome is Marner stays.
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May 26 at 9:48 a.m.
#3
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If the Leafs waste an asset like Marner to acquire a goalie coming off a down year who will be 30 y/o seeking a major contract extension while having Joseph Woll on the upswing, I may actually march on Scotiabank arena
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May 26 at 9:51 a.m.
#4
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exo2769
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
If the Leafs waste an asset like Marner to acquire a goalie coming off a down year who will be 30 y/o seeking a major contract extension while having Joseph Woll on the upswing, I may actually march on Scotiabank arena


The whole contract extension thing goes both ways though. TOR doesn't currently have Marner for more than 1 year. It's not hard for Treliving to explain that away.

As far as if you think Juuso stinks...ok that's fair if that's what you think.
May 26 at 10:23 a.m.
#5
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Appreciate the reasonable effort but I agree with other Leaf fans - Marner’s value >> Saros’. The retention helps but Preds would need to add - at minimum change one pick to a 1st & add a top prospect.
Two elements muddying the waters here - Marner’s NMC & this site’s general anti Keafs bias:
1/ Marner’s NMC - mostly a red herring; imo Marner only waives (after July 1) to a location where he will negotiate an 8 year extension. It’s in his & Leafs interest to work together to find optimal location (much like Tre did with Tkatchuk)
2/ anti Leaf bias is pervasive on this site; somehow Marner has been assigned all of the blame for recent playoff issues - he has to own part of it, but far from all - let’s not forget he’s in his prime, is a 100 point winger with two first team all stars & selke nominee on his resume, a lock for Team Canada top 6 role and plays big minutes including PK1& PP1. Imagine Draisaitl return - he’s in same situation as Marner with respect to contract & NMC - he is better player than Marner but no one would suggest 1 year of a pending UFA goalie + 2 x 2nds is remotely fair 🤷🏻
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May 26 at 11:22 a.m.
#6
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exo2769
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Quoting: MitchJr
Appreciate the reasonable effort but I agree with other Leaf fans - Marner’s value >> Saros’. The retention helps but Preds would need to add - at minimum change one pick to a 1st & add a top prospect.
Two elements muddying the waters here - Marner’s NMC & this site’s general anti Keafs bias:
1/ Marner’s NMC - mostly a red herring; imo Marner only waives (after July 1) to a location where he will negotiate an 8 year extension. It’s in his & Leafs interest to work together to find optimal location (much like Tre did with Tkatchuk)
2/ anti Leaf bias is pervasive on this site; somehow Marner has been assigned all of the blame for recent playoff issues - he has to own part of it, but far from all - let’s not forget he’s in his prime, is a 100 point winger with two first team all stars & selke nominee on his resume, a lock for Team Canada top 6 role and plays big minutes including PK1& PP1. Imagine Draisaitl return - he’s in same situation as Marner with respect to contract & NMC - he is better player than Marner but no one would suggest 1 year of a pending UFA goalie + 2 x 2nds is remotely fair 🤷🏻


I appreciate the well thought out and thorough response. I agree Leafs fans are a bit harsh on him right now. Prisoners of the Moment. It happens to all fan bases. I personally dont think there's a ton of anti Leaf bias. There's just more Leafs fans. That comes with more Leaf lovers and more Leaf haters, but equally more on both sides pro and con. With that said, I can understand how that might feel if you're a Leafs fan. You're going to focus more on the hate than the good. Heck, this psychology is how Steve Dangle makes money. I can tell you're a Leafs fan in a few ways. You called Marner a 100 point player which factually is inaccurate. He's never done that. He's been extremely close, BUT that doesn't make me "anti-Leaf" because I pointed out a fact. I do very much like Marner and if he found his way to the Hawks as a UFA I'd be VERY happy.

I also agree working together is the best path going forward...from the teams perspective. I'm not 100% sure being super flexible is in Marner’s best interest. It really depends on what he's looking for...to which I'm not Mitch Marner so I wouldn't know. Does he want to be the highest paid RWer??? Does he want to win? Those questions will dictate which team he's willing to accept a trade to.

From my perspective...what's missing in the calculus for most of these trade ideas "with extensions" what's that extension? If he wants more than Pasta....Thats not a good contract because he's not as good as Pasta. I'm not a Leaf or Bruin fan, but there is no conversation outside of TOR where those players are equal. Mutli 110+ points and 60+ goals vs never actually hit 100 points... Rantenan is probably not getting more than Mac...he's also better than Marner. So if Marner wants $12M...he's likely getting that as a UFA because that is an over payment.

I just think the "Seth Jones" trade isn't a realistic route for the Leafs unless it's to a contender, but they're also trying to contend which makes things all the more difficult. Ultimately he likely just stays a Leaf.
May 26 at 11:34 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: exo2769
I appreciate the well thought out and thorough response. I agree Leafs fans are a bit harsh on him right now. Prisoners of the Moment. It happens to all fan bases. I personally dont think there's a ton of anti Leaf bias. There's just more Leafs fans. That comes with more Leaf lovers and more Leaf haters, but equally more on both sides pro and con. With that said, I can understand how that might feel if you're a Leafs fan. You're going to focus more on the hate than the good. Heck, this psychology is how Steve Dangle makes money. I can tell you're a Leafs fan in a few ways. You called Marner a 100 point player which factually is inaccurate. He's never done that. He's been extremely close, BUT that doesn't make me "anti-Leaf" because I pointed out a fact. I do very much like Marner and if he found his way to the Hawks as a UFA I'd be VERY happy.

I also agree working together is the best path going forward...from the teams perspective. I'm not 100% sure being super flexible is in Marner’s best interest. It really depends on what he's looking for...to which I'm not Mitch Marner so I wouldn't know. Does he want to be the highest paid RWer??? Does he want to win? Those questions will dictate which team he's willing to accept a trade to.

From my perspective...what's missing in the calculus for most of these trade ideas "with extensions" what's that extension? If he wants more than Pasta....Thats not a good contract because he's not as good as Pasta. I'm not a Leaf or Bruin fan, but there is no conversation outside of TOR where those players are equal. Mutli 110+ points and 60+ goals vs never actually hit 100 points... Rantenan is probably not getting more than Mac...he's also better than Marner. So if Marner wants $12M...he's likely getting that as a UFA because that is an over payment.

I just think the "Seth Jones" trade isn't a realistic route for the Leafs unless it's to a contender, but they're also trying to contend which makes things all the more difficult. Ultimately he likely just stays a Leaf.


Fair enough; Marner also brings other elements to the table that players like Pasta & Kucherov don’t; there is no doubt in addition to being a great playmaker he’s also a great defensive forward. He eats minutes and plays both PK1 & PP1, which is hard to find in a winger. But what he ends up getting on his next deal - that’s for him and his agent to argue but any team acquiring him in this ‘mock’ scenario would know that before they dealt for him so 🤷🏻.
He has never reached 100 points, but he’s been on a 100 point production pace the past 4 seasons, so maybe splitting hairs.
His contract aav will be based on his performance relative to his peers but also the cap (it’s going up and his new deal won’t kick in until 26-27) so unreasonable to use relative performance alone. McDavid is easily best player in league but only 3rd highest paid because he signed his deal in 2018-19; % of cap when deal is signed is better way to compare player’s cap hits imo.
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May 26 at 4:29 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: exo2769
The whole contract extension thing goes both ways though. TOR doesn't currently have Marner for more than 1 year. It's not hard for Treliving to explain that away.

As far as if you think Juuso stinks...ok that's fair if that's what you think.


Saros will be two years older though at the time of extension and with how fickle yet influential the goalie position is, Saros needs to remain a top 6-7 goalie for his extension (probably in the Sorokin range) to not be a major mistake. That's a tall order.

And I don't think Saros stinks (though he did have an off year). Not sure how I gave that impression. It's just that we have an up and comer in Woll, and rather than going tandem we're going to not only block him, but pay a legitimate superstar winger to do it?? I'd be outraged.
May 26 at 6:31 p.m.
#9
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The open challenge here is the contract each player is going to sign. While I think Marner is a great regular season player, I do wonder if Toronto can put together a championship roster with how much they’ve chosen to pay all their premier offensive forwards compared to their defenseman. Toronto fans may not like that, but it’s a question
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