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guerin offseason take II

Created by: MNCountryClub
Team: 2024-25 Minnesota Wild
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 17, 2024
Published: May 31, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$975,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$950,000
Trades
1.
2.
MIN
  1. 2025 2nd round pick (NJD)
3.
OTT
  1. Healey, Ryan [Reserve List]
  2. 2025 1st round pick (MIN)
Additional Details:
assume some degree of pick prot.
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the MIN
2025
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the MIN
2026
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the COL
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$87,700,000$86,643,588$425,000$2,850,000$1,056,412
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,000,000$7,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$4,125,000$4,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$886,667$886,667 (Performance Bonus$475,000$475K)
LW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
$950,000$950,000
RW, LW
UFA
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,600,000$4,600,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$250,000$250K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,575,000$7,575,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,450,000$2,450,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$975,000$975,000
LD/RD
RFA
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$775,000$775,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,200,000$1,200,000 ($50,000$50K$50,000$50K)
LD
UFA - 1

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May 31 at 5:15 p.m.
#1
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I'd like to think the sens already have better offers in front of them for Chychrun. I hope so anyway
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May 31 at 5:15 p.m.
#2
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Chychrun gets more than this, but otherwise yeah, I think both of your threads have felt realistic from a Wild POV
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May 31 at 5:15 p.m.
#3
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I would imagine you get beaten by someone else if that the best offer for Chychrun. Least you could do is make the pick a ‘24.
May 31 at 5:16 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
I would imagine you get beaten by someone else if that the best offer for Chychrun. Least you could do is make the pick a ‘24.


Lol, that's not the "least" they can do, that's the 13th overall pick
May 31 at 5:17 p.m.
#5
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That 4 year term is going to be a no-go for MTL, they can take cap but more than 1 year is going to be a hard sell.
May 31 at 5:22 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Caerii
Lol, that's not the "least" they can do, that's the 13th overall pick


Well to be fair a, likely late, ‘25 1st and a B/C prospect really isn’t significant at all.

Ottawa gave 12, 49 and another 2nd a little over a year ago and all Chychrun’s done is arguably have the best statistical year of his career with a revolving door of coaches.

They’re likely looking for help right now but I think the 13th pick by itself would be something the team would have to consider.
May 31 at 5:30 p.m.
#7
Mr.
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Fair trade with montreal but i don't see how they would be interested
May 31 at 5:33 p.m.
#8
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Wild should not trade Gus for a 2nd round pick. We have enough of those types of prospects.
May 31 at 5:37 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: dsimz13
I'd like to think the sens already have better offers in front of them for Chychrun. I hope so anyway


Quoting: Caerii
Chychrun gets more than this, but otherwise yeah, I think both of your threads have felt realistic from a Wild POV


Thanks - too lazy to tweak it on this one, but that's helpful. and if I make another one with Chych, I'll up the value.
May 31 at 5:39 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: LumberJacques
That 4 year term is going to be a no-go for MTL, they can take cap but more than 1 year is going to be a hard sell.


Quoting: SMH
Fair trade with montreal but i don't see how they would be interested


I figured as much, but went for the hail mary with Gaudreau being a local and the fact that he can be buried for under a 1M if there isn't' a bounceback year.

Makes sense though, I wouldn't do it from MTLs perspective either.
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May 31 at 5:40 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
Well to be fair a, likely late, ‘25 1st and a B/C prospect really isn’t significant at all.

Ottawa gave 12, 49 and another 2nd a little over a year ago and all Chychrun’s done is arguably have the best statistical year of his career with a revolving door of coaches.

They’re likely looking for help right now but I think the 13th pick by itself would be something the team would have to consider.


Ottawa isn't going to recoup what they gave up for him.

I said already he gets more than this, but that doesn't mean going from the '25 1st to the 13th pick this year.
May 31 at 5:45 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Digitalbooya06
Wild should not trade Gus for a 2nd round pick. We have enough of those types of prospects.


I don't disagree, but I'm of the opinion that Guerin is gonna deal him, so that's why I keep using this trade. It's really just a proxy for some futures-centric package involving Gus.

I'm going for realism not what I would do personally.
May 31 at 5:55 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Caerii
Ottawa isn't going to recoup what they gave up for him.

I said already he gets more than this, but that doesn't mean going from the '25 1st to the 13th pick this year.


13 is nowhere near ‘recouping’ what they paid for him when the price was originally 12, 49 and an additional 2nd…

My point was just that 13th would be a legitimate offer. That’s all. If Minnesota isn’t willing to pay that, it’s water under the bridge. I just don’t think Staios would listen on the ‘25 1st+ if the plus isn’t significant and the ‘24 1st is sitting right there.
May 31 at 5:57 p.m.
#14
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I think Ottawa would want more for Chychrun (or at least more pick certainty), and should get it.

As for the other two, I just don't see the point for Montreal and NJ.

-Montreal's gunning for cap clarity in 2025 and probably don't want more depth forwards. Unless they need the cap space from other moves they're probably better off hoping Dvorak can stay healthy and play himself into being an in-demand rental.
-New Jersey traded for Allen to be their backup/1B goalie for next season, if they're trading for a goalie they're going to want a better goalie than Gustavsson.
May 31 at 5:59 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
13 is nowhere near ‘recouping’ what they paid for him when the price was originally 12, 49 and an additional 2nd…

My point was just that 13th would be a legitimate offer. That’s all. If Minnesota isn’t willing to pay that, it’s water under the bridge. I just don’t think Staios would listen on the ‘25 1st+ if the plus isn’t significant and the ‘24 1st is sitting right there.


Chychrun is a rental now, hope this helps.

Retain 50% and hope for the hanifin return despite hanifin being a much better player
May 31 at 6:04 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: dgibb10
Chychrun is a rental now, hope this helps.

Retain 50% and hope for the hanifin return despite hanifin being a much better player


Maybe if they wait until the 2025 deadline, but if he's traded in the off-season the return will be better (unless he refuses to sign a new contract). The only reason Hanifin returned what he did is because he was a rental who didn't give any assurances to Las Vegas that he would re-sign with them prior to the deal. The pressure point isn't as high in the offseason and there will be more interested parties.
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May 31 at 6:04 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: dgibb10
Chychrun is a rental now, hope this helps.

Retain 50% and hope for the hanifin return despite hanifin being a much better player


You say this like a 1st, 2nd/3rd and a body isn’t a better deal than what was proposed here. On top of that Hanifin was traded at the deadline.

Regardless, two years of Chychrun vs one year of Chychrun… it was always a rental just one had more time on it. Hope this helps.
May 31 at 6:16 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
You say this like a 1st, 2nd/3rd and a body isn’t a better deal than what was proposed here. On top of that Hanifin was traded at the deadline.

Regardless, two years of Chychrun vs one year of Chychrun… it was always a rental just one had more time on it. Hope this helps.


There is not a single person who has said what's proposed here is enough lol, why are you still acting like that's the case?

Ultimately Calgary got a 2026 1st, a 3rd, and a 26/27 year old AHL player. The Wild can change the 2025 1st to a 2026 1st and add a 3rd, no problem.

Quoting: Burnout
Maybe if they wait until the 2025 deadline, but if he's traded in the off-season the return will be better (unless he refuses to sign a new contract). The only reason Hanifin returned what he did is because he was a rental who didn't give any assurances to Las Vegas that he would re-sign with them prior to the deal. The pressure point isn't as high in the offseason and there will be more interested parties.


No one has any assurances that Chychrun will sign with their team until July 1.
May 31 at 6:37 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Caerii
No one has any assurances that Chychrun will sign with their team until July 1.


That's what negotiations are for. Lets not pretend the vast majority of trades like this (especially in the offseason) don't result in a new contract being agreed to prior to a trade going through.

Nothing would make me happier than seeing Ottawa get hosed in Chychrun deal, but its not realistic to think he's going to pull a Hanafin. And even if he does, Ottawa would probably just wait until the deadline than take an offer they don't think is reasonable. Or make more of a hockey trade (like going after a Necas or Ehlers).
May 31 at 6:45 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Caerii
There is not a single person who has said what's proposed here is enough lol, why are you still acting like that's the case?


Dude what are you talking about. Go back and read what I wrote to YOU again. I never once said anything about you thinking the deal was enough so I don’t understand why you’re stuck on that.

You’re literally quoting something I said to someone else instead of what was addressed to you, which I think was a very reasonable reply.

I already addressed the differences with the Hanifin situation, not going back over that again.
May 31 at 6:53 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Burnout
Maybe if they wait until the 2025 deadline, but if he's traded in the off-season the return will be better (unless he refuses to sign a new contract). The only reason Hanifin returned what he did is because he was a rental who didn't give any assurances to Las Vegas that he would re-sign with them prior to the deal. The pressure point isn't as high in the offseason and there will be more interested parties.


Jakub Chychrun is also a rental.

Prices on 1 year rentals are lower in the offseason, not higher.
May 31 at 6:54 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Burnout
That's what negotiations are for. Lets not pretend the vast majority of trades like this (especially in the offseason) don't result in a new contract being agreed to prior to a trade going through.

Nothing would make me happier than seeing Ottawa get hosed in Chychrun deal, but its not realistic to think he's going to pull a Hanafin. And even if he does, Ottawa would probably just wait until the deadline than take an offer they don't think is reasonable. Or make more of a hockey trade (like going after a Necas or Ehlers).


What do you mean "pull a Hanifin"?

Hanifin was a normal rental, just like Chychrun is.

Calgary fans tried to convince themselves some magical extension was going to make Hanifin not a rental and jack up his price. I told them time and again.

And now we're right back here with Chychrun
May 31 at 6:56 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
You say this like a 1st, 2nd/3rd and a body isn’t a better deal than what was proposed here. On top of that Hanifin was traded at the deadline.

Regardless, two years of Chychrun vs one year of Chychrun… it was always a rental just one had more time on it. Hope this helps.


Hanifin had retention. the 3rd paid for the retention.

And Hanifin is better than Chychrun.

Yes, you are right. Virtually all of chychrun's value came from his cheap term. He had 3 years worth of cheap term. Now he only has 1. His price has gone down significantly.
May 31 at 7:01 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: MNCountryClub
I don't disagree, but I'm of the opinion that Guerin is gonna deal him, so that's why I keep using this trade. It's really just a proxy for some futures-centric package involving Gus.

I'm going for realism not what I would do personally.


I don’t think Guerin would trade him for a pick. He’s under pressure for the team to perform or risk Kaprizov wanting out. A player for player swap is most likely IMO.
May 31 at 7:02 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: dgibb10
Hanifin had retention. the 3rd paid for the retention.

And Hanifin is better than Chychrun.

Yes, you are right. Virtually all of chychrun's value came from his cheap term. He had 3 years worth of cheap term. Now he only has 1. His price has gone down significantly.


Chychrun had two and some change on his deal when Ottawa got him but sure. Whatever floats your boat.

And the 3rd was conditional, came very close to being a 2nd for Hanifin but if you want to say that was for retention then, again, sure.

If Chychrun’s being traded at the deadline then maybe it can be used as a comparable but as it stands it’s not entirely helpful.
 
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