Based on a roster construction for 2025-26, for which JT is moved on, McCabe re-signs at 4x$5, Knies 3x$4, Woll (or another 1A G) 4x$4 and Cowan is a regular.
THE GOALS:
1. REVAMP THE DEFENSE
2. CULTURE RESET
Overspend a little to fully revamp the D this year. You’re never guaranteed a good crop of FAs and next year's RHD list is shaping up to be quite weak.
THE ISSUES:
1. The Leafs seem to have a hard time attracting marquee FAs
2. Big FA signings are often mistakes and contracts often don't age well
Plan: Overpay a little to attract 2 of the top FAs available, without getting into really undesirable contracts. The current window, as-is, is the next 4 years; if contracts age poorly, so be it. Try to get it done without spending assets to acquire similar profiled (age & contract) Dmen.
My bonafide Top 4 UFAs available:
Tier 1A - Skjei (LHD), Montour
Tier 1B - Roy, Pesce, Tanev, DeMelo
Tier 2 (ok as #4s, great #5-6) - Chatfield, Carrier, Zadorov (LHD)
HOWEVER, if the Leafs CANNOT sign at least 1 (if not 2) Top 4 UFAs, the trade route might have to be explored (Would something along the lines of Pulock & Theodore be the most attainable trade-wise?)
My trade targets:
- Weegar (NTC, 30yo, 7x$6.250, will cost a kings ransom to acquire, would be my #1 target RHD stud)
- Pulock (NTC, 29yo, 6x$6.150, not sure how his game has been lately or his cost to acquire, could be fit?)
- Parayko (NTC, 31yo, 6x$6.5, not sure he's interested to waive NTC for TO, will cost a decent amount to acquire)
- Andersson (will cost a kings ransom to acquire)
- Theodore (1 year remaining at $5.2, will need to be re-signed at near 8x$8. Not the end of the world, but more cap planning will be required between this year & next, wont be cheap to acquire)
- Other targets, which I don't consider bonafide #1-3 this team is looking for: Durzi, Marino, Chychrun, Chabot, Schneider (if the pro scouts see him developing into a stud)
NOTES:
1. Bertuzzi is signed here (rumors of his camp & the Leafs talking), but if it's not him at 5-6M, other Top Line Wingers:
Tier 1: Toffoli, Marchessault, Duchene, DeBrusk
Tier 2: Perron, Duclair, Teravainen, Arvidsson, Joshua, Domi
2. Cowan starts the year with the big club. If/when he gets sent back to London, Holmberg joins the 3rd line and Knies moves up. (Also possible one of Grebyonkin, Minten or Steeves or even Tverberg, Quillan or Hirvonen make the team out of camp, or get the callup when Cowan is sent down).
3. I don't see a world where the Leafs are offered much in terms of solid players that fit their biggest needs (Top 4 RHD & 2/3 C) for Marner. I believe it will be a mix of young players, slight contract dumps, picks and/or prospects, which the Leafs would then use to acquire their actual targets/upgrades from the roster I have created.
*Cody Glass might be a bit of a long shot to provide the impact needed for this team at 3C, but I could also see him being flipped with extra assets to acquire a guy like Morgan Frost instead, who would play 2/3C and should become 2C next year.
4. If the Leafs spend more on the 1B goalie (ie. Brossoit @ $2.5M), most likely will need to downgrade one of the D (ie. Chatfield to Edmundson/Lyubushkin, Roy or Skjei to Tanev/Chatfield/Carrier, Walker, etc)