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Idk whats realistic for Marner anymore

Created by: Agc1995
Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 2, 2024
Published: Jun. 2, 2024
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1$2,500,000
1$1,750,000
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6$4,000,000
7$7,500,000
2$2,500,000
3$3,000,000
4$3,500,000
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1.
TOR
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2.
TOR
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TOR
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2024
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$87,700,000$86,871,334$0$0$828,666
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
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$13,250,000$13,250,000
C
NMC
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C, LW
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UFA - 1
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RW
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UFA - 8
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW
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C, LW
UFA - 2
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LW, C
RFA - 3
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$800,000$800,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
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$2,400,000$2,400,000
C
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LD/RD
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RD
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$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 1
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$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
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$4,400,000$4,400,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
UFA
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$1,350,000$1,350,000
LD
UFA - 3
$3,000,000$3,000,000
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$875,000$875,000
LD
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Jun. 2 at 10:45 p.m.
#1
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Players as good as him the team trading him always lose the trade. Hard to replace a 90-100 point player
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Jun. 2 at 10:46 p.m.
#2
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Definitely not that. An overpaid depth C and a washed defender don't get the conversation started. The picks are nice but add quality
Jun. 2 at 10:48 p.m.
#3
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There are such polarizing views on Marner. Some people think he’s worth a shea theodore + and then others are more on this end of the spectrum.

This feels like a loss to me from the leafs POV but one I could stomach
Jun. 2 at 10:50 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Agc1995
There are such polarizing views on Marner. Some people think he’s worth a shea theodore + and then others are more on this end of the spectrum.

This feels like a loss to me from the leafs POV but one I could stomach


CF will do that to you.

A lot of people tend to think because he expires in one year he's practically worthless. Toronto fans tend to be unreasonable sometimes but it's not unreasonable to expect a decent return for a 90+ defensively responsible player lol
Jun. 2 at 10:55 p.m.
#5
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Simply can't see the hawks paying much of anything for marner when they can simply wait a season if they really want him without giving up assets. They're in no rush whatsoever
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Jun. 2 at 11:10 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Agc1995
There are such polarizing views on Marner. Some people think he’s worth a shea theodore + and then others are more on this end of the spectrum.

This feels like a loss to me from the leafs POV but one I could stomach


It’s probably somewhere in between. Marner has to agree to go some place and sign an 8 year extension. The combination of team who has the cap space to do that whom he wants to go to might be limited.

I’d offer you Ullmark and Lysell for him. It limits what Boston can do at the center position, but it gets them a bonfire scoring threat. Toronto could sign Montour for the difference plus some cap space. I don’t see these two teams trading with one another.
Jun. 2 at 11:35 p.m.
#7
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Marner’s such a weird situation. he’s gonna return less than a player of his calibre should, for sure. he’s being hard scapegoated, some of it deserved, some of it not. he’s a very talented player who will probably be worth his next contract, but not a lot of teams are gonna necessarily be super eager to hand out that 11M+ deal, even if he deserves it. the real killer is his full NMC, of course. it tanks value pretty hard. my first thought it like, maybe around the Meier return? a 1st, and conditional 2nd that could be a 1st, a B+ prospect and a decent young roster player in that case?

to make it easy to think of for the Leafs, the return they could probably expect imo would be another team’s equivalent of like, a 1st + Minten +… maybe like, Robertson or Liljegren?
Jun. 2 at 11:37 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Agc1995
There are such polarizing views on Marner. Some people think he’s worth a shea theodore + and then others are more on this end of the spectrum.

This feels like a loss to me from the leafs POV but one I could stomach


Theodore is in the same contract situation as Marner and might be viewed as expendable by VG since they have Hanifin now, they also have a rep of throwing guys aside, so if they are interested, then Theodore+ is probably the best or one of the best offers that would get. He'll probably be the best quality of player at the least even if maybe there are more valuable packages. Sending Marner out west would also be preferable. Saros is probably the next best option, and although he's probably technically ranked higher than Theodore among goalies, I think trading a forward for a defender is a mistake, even more so for a goalie in most cases. More than likely, it's not really worth moving Marner but doesn't mean they won't do it.
Jun. 3 at 9:32 a.m.
#9
uWu Garak
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CHI is not a team that is going to pay for Marner. They kind of teams that might be willing to pay for Marner, won't have the assets you want for him. And the situation is entirely up to him, which reduces TOR's leverage even further than it already is. I wish you good luck with that situation, but you might need to lower your expectations.
Jun. 3 at 11:11 a.m.
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Quoting: Agc1995
There are such polarizing views on Marner. Some people think he’s worth a shea theodore + and then others are more on this end of the spectrum.


Quoting: Carleton
A lot of people tend to think because he expires in one year he's practically worthless. Toronto fans tend to be unreasonable sometimes but it's not unreasonable to expect a decent return for a 90+ defensively responsible player lol


Quoting: Celtics21
It’s probably somewhere in between. Marner has to agree to go some place and sign an 8 year extension. The combination of team who has the cap space to do that whom he wants to go to might be limited.


Tacking on here: the biggest issue is people on CF want to assign objective value to a player that doesn't have the same value depending on what team you're sending him to.

VGK might be willing to part with Theodore+ to add a 90+ pt defensively responsible star player. NSH might be willing to part with Saros or Askarov to add a scoring punch they don't have. Both make sense because they're looking to add players that can help the current core compete for each of the next 9 years.

CHI/CBJ/ANA/SJ won't part with anything significant because to them, it's an $11M UFA who, even if he signs an 8 year extension, only fits the timeline to compete for the back half of a huge contract. Why would those teams give up a huge haul for Marner when they're not a Marner away from lifting the Cup, or even making the playoffs?

The annoying thing is so many fans get worked up when someone sends Marner to a bottom-feeder for key future pieces and get told no/those players are off the table. Those teams ("we", as a CBJ fan) don't want him that badly because he doesn't help us compete. It's a nonsense move.
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Jun. 3 at 11:15 a.m.
#11
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Chicago isn't giving up all that for Marner.
Jun. 3 at 11:47 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: CaseyFlyman
Tacking on here: the biggest issue is people on CF want to assign objective value to a player that doesn't have the same value depending on what team you're sending him to.

VGK might be willing to part with Theodore+ to add a 90+ pt defensively responsible star player. NSH might be willing to part with Saros or Askarov to add a scoring punch they don't have. Both make sense because they're looking to add players that can help the current core compete for each of the next 9 years.

CHI/CBJ/ANA/SJ won't part with anything significant because to them, it's an $11M UFA who, even if he signs an 8 year extension, only fits the timeline to compete for the back half of a huge contract. Why would those teams give up a huge haul for Marner when they're not a Marner away from lifting the Cup, or even making the playoffs?

The annoying thing is so many fans get worked up when someone sends Marner to a bottom-feeder for key future pieces and get told no/those players are off the table. Those teams ("we", as a CBJ fan) don't want him that badly because he doesn't help us compete. It's a nonsense move.


I dont see why Vegas trades Theodore for him smile

On a serious note. I believe Mitch Marner is a damn good player and I think he’s getting a bad wrap because Dubas and Treveling didn’t consider roster construction. That said, the roster construction is an issue.

Any team that acquires him is paying an extension in the 12M range. Is that Vegas’s MO? Not sure.

There is a difference between automatically saying no and considering a teams rationale for making a trade. I believe Ottawa would do it if they could pair him with Brady, but I’m not sure Ottawa has the pieces outside of Brady to make the deal work, Same wirh Utah and Keller.

The reality is Toronto is good enough where they won’t want a futures play because FA comes with inherent risk.

Its not easy to find an appropriate place for Marner even if he’d be a fit for a lot of teams if that makes sense
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Jun. 3 at 11:58 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Celtics21
I dont see why Vegas trades Theodore for him smile

On a serious note. I believe Mitch Marner is a damn good player and I think he’s getting a bad wrap because Dubas and Treveling didn’t consider roster construction. That said, the roster construction is an issue.

Any team that acquires him is paying an extension in the 12M range. Is that Vegas’s MO? Not sure.

There is a difference between automatically saying no and considering a teams rationale for making a trade. I believe Ottawa would do it if they could pair him with Brady, but I’m not sure Ottawa has the pieces outside of Brady to make the deal work, Same wirh Utah and Keller.

The reality is Toronto is good enough where they won’t want a futures play because FA comes with inherent risk.

Its not easy to find an appropriate place for Marner even if he’d be a fit for a lot of teams if that makes sense


I'm no Vegas expert so I won't hazard a guess at why, but it's definitely a popular theory.

Marner is a fantastic player, he's a top-20 forward and top-10 wing IMO, definitely not trying to downplay that. Is he worth a team's top prospect, a 1st, and more? Yeah. But is that player, at $11M, with a NTC that'll be used to dictate exactly where he goes, who will be looking for a $12M+ extension, on a team that's going to be looking for similar excellent players to change up their roster construction and continue competing, going to fetch that return? No, his inherent value as a player doesn't match what the market is going to be willing to pay/what Toronto is going to be willing to accept.

Team rationale is critical when considering potential returns, and too many fans can't separate how they value a player with how an acquiring team would value the player. I just wish people took the time to understand the rationale, but instead we get the curt responses instead ("he won't waive", "that's not enough", etc. etc.).

I totally get what you're saying about finding an appropriate place even if he fits a lot of teams. Finding a situation he'd be willing to waive/extend for, while also getting an acceptable return for Toronto, and a package that isn't too much for the acquiring team to give up, is so tricky.
Jun. 3 at 12:09 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: CaseyFlyman
I'm no Vegas expert so I won't hazard a guess at why, but it's definitely a popular theory.

Marner is a fantastic player, he's a top-20 forward and top-10 wing IMO, definitely not trying to downplay that. Is he worth a team's top prospect, a 1st, and more? Yeah. But is that player, at $11M, with a NTC that'll be used to dictate exactly where he goes, who will be looking for a $12M+ extension, on a team that's going to be looking for similar excellent players to change up their roster construction and continue competing, going to fetch that return? No, his inherent value as a player doesn't match what the market is going to be willing to pay/what Toronto is going to be willing to accept.

Team rationale is critical when considering potential returns, and too many fans can't separate how they value a player with how an acquiring team would value the player. I just wish people took the time to understand the rationale, but instead we get the curt responses instead ("he won't waive", "that's not enough", etc. etc.).

I totally get what you're saying about finding an appropriate place even if he fits a lot of teams. Finding a situation he'd be willing to waive/extend for, while also getting an acceptable return for Toronto, and a package that isn't too much for the acquiring team to give up, is so tricky.


Trades, in general, are hard to get teams to agree to. This one has some added complexity to it. It can happen, but my guess is the return (while impressive) may look a tad different than expected.
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Jun. 3 at 1:39 p.m.
#15
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Why are we acting like this is some huge overpay for Chicago? They get Marner and move none of their premium assets to do it.

Liljegren and Murphy are essentially a wash here, so it boils down to a dime-a-dozen bottom sixer plus #'s 18 and 34, for a team stocked with picks, to ensure you land Marner? Doesn't make any sense for Toronto's window but the value is far from unreasonable.
 
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