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Leafs Washington trade? Carlson, JVR, Kapanen, ++

Created by: Billius
Team: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 7, 2017
Published: Aug. 7, 2017
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Leafs trade JVR (retaining salary), Kapanen, Carrick, Rychel and 2nd round pick to Washington for John Carlson who is a UFA next season. They will sign him to an extension as part of the trade.
This trade also helps Caps solve their Salary Cap issue.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$3,000,000
Trades
TOR
  1. Carlson, John
Additional Details:
Caps have $4M cap space to sign 6 more players. Carlson is a UFA next season and Caps already have 3 Dmen signed for $5.75, $5.5 and $5.1M. They can't afford a big contract extension with Carlson.
So a trade with the Leafs makes sense if it can bolster their forward lines and bring in some young, low-cost talent ready to play.

Carlson is a top pair RHD Dman, highly ranked in GAR (goals above replacement) and just what the Leafs need to solidify their defense.
JVR is also a UFA next year but Caps can offer an extension with Lars Eller off the books next year.
Caps can help retool with promising and inexpensive young players like Connor Carrick (RHD 2nd or 3rd pair), Kapanen (pt per game in AHL at 21) and Rychel (young power forward).
Leafs offer a 2nd round pick to balance the trade out, given the market value shown for Hamonic.

The key to this trade is the Leafs ability to help the Caps fill out their roster, provide 2017-18 cqp relief and offer a high level LW in JVR, along with low cost NHL-ready prospects.
WSH
  1. Carrick, Connor
  2. Kapanen, Kasperi
  3. Rychel, Kerby
  4. van Riemsdyk, James ($2,125,000 retained)
  5. 2018 2nd round pick (SJS)
Additional Details:
JVR UFA after next season.
Leafs retain 50% of 2017-18 salary.
Rychel is waiver eligible, but good fit for Washington bottom 6.
Carrick was in Caps' system, good young mobile RHD.
Kapanen is NHL ready, top 6 potential.
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
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Logo of the SJS
Logo of the TOR
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Logo of the ANA
2019
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
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Logo of the TOR
2020
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$75,000,000$72,745,834$5,370,000$5,400,000$2,254,166
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 3
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
C
UFA - 2
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW
UFA - 1
$2,950,000$2,950,000
RW, LW, C
UFA - 1
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
UFA - 5
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
$612,500$612,500
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$4,200,000$4,200,000
C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW
UFA - 2
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
$1,000,000$1,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
$2,000,000$2,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 5
$3,966,667$3,966,667
RD
UFA - 1
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$4,050,000$4,050,000
LD
UFA - 2
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 7
$850,000$850,000
G
UFA - 2
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
UFA - 2
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD
UFA - 1
$1,450,000$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:17 a.m.
#1
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I suggest this puts Leafs in exactly the same position one year out in terms of resigning Carlson to a manageable cap number, except they've given up 3 young controllable assets and a solid pick! I see Leafs doing something on the RD, but this as above doesn't make sense!! *At least to me!
PS: I do like Carlson
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:21 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: Doug7004
I suggest this puts Leafs in exactly the same position one year out in terms of resigning Carlson to a manageable cap number, except they've given up 3 young controllable assets and a solid pick! I see Leafs doing something on the RD, but this as above doesn't make sense!! *At least to me!
PS: I do like Carlson


I'd guesstimating Leafs sign Carlson to an extension for around $6.75M x 7 years as part of this trade arrangement.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:29 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: Billius
Quoting: Doug7004
I suggest this puts Leafs in exactly the same position one year out in terms of resigning Carlson to a manageable cap number, except they've given up 3 young controllable assets and a solid pick! I see Leafs doing something on the RD, but this as above doesn't make sense!! *At least to me!
PS: I do like Carlson


I'd guesstimating Leafs sign Carlson to an extension for around $6.75M x 7 years as part of this trade arrangement.


Which might be workable in 2018/19 with really only Nylander due an extension, BUT how does that fit in 19 when Gardiner, (who might be odd man out anyway) Matthiews and Marner need resigning?
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:30 a.m.
#4
Ioriomilkshake
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If Caps can afford JVR in 18-19, they can afford Carlson. This trade doesn´t make any sense for Caps since it leaves them with only two top 4-D.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:39 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: Doug7004
Quoting: Billius


I'd guesstimating Leafs sign Carlson to an extension for around $6.75M x 7 years as part of this trade arrangement.


Which might be workable in 2018/19 with really only Nylander due an extension, BUT how does that fit in 19 when Gardiner, (who might be odd man out anyway) Matthiews and Marner need resigning?


I took a look at that and there were two options: either lose Gardiner or else work some magic to offload Martin and Marleau's third contract year. I have a CF showing that Carlson would fit if Marleau and Martin were out. But I think it would be more likely that Leafs can't afford to keep Jake.

Quoting: Capsule
If Caps can afford JVR in 18-19, they can afford Carlson. This trade doesn´t make any sense for Caps since it leaves them with only two top 4-D.


You raise a good point. I was wondering that too when I first did this. But Caps have a decent top 4 without Carlson and they benefit at a minimum of trading for a LW they can use on 2nd line that they can likely re-sign PLUS all the NHL-ready extras Leafs sent their way. If they did re-sign Carlson, they have a very expensive allocation of Cap to their top 4 Dmen.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:40 a.m.
#6
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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An absurd overpayment by the Leafs. JVR for Carlsson OK. Kapanen might be JVRs replacement in future years. And you traded one RHD (Carrick) for another Carlssson. Yea, I know Carlsson is better, but the net gain at RHD is zero. Leafs can't afford or even want to sign Carlsson to an extension at at anywhere near that money.
And if Carlsson is so desirable to the Leafs as a resigning, can't the Leafs just wait a year, sign him as UFA and keep their assets.

Capsule: I'm sure the Leafs can't afford or even want to sign resign JVR next summer. Agree not having Carlsson this year really hurts the Caps.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:46 a.m.
#7
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As a Caps fan, this makes no sense for them. Defense is going to be a weak point for them already, so why would they make it worse to strengthen a position they are already good on? Their 2nd pair will be questionable even with Carlson.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 10:58 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: palhal
An absurd overpayment by the Leafs. JVR for Carlsson OK. Kapanen might be JVRs replacement in future years. And you traded one RHD (Carrick) for another Carlssson. Yea, I know Carlsson is better, but the net gain at RHD is zero. Leafs can't afford or even want to sign Carlsson to an extension at at anywhere near that money.
And if Carlsson is so desirable to the Leafs as a resigning, can't the Leafs just wait a year, sign him as UFA and keep their assets.

Capsule: I'm sure the Leafs can't afford or even want to sign resign JVR next summer. Agree not having Carlsson this year really hurts the Caps.


I'm thinking that a player like Carlson would not likely be available July 1st. He would either be given an extension by the Caps or dealt in a trade. I'm speculating the latter because of the Cap problem Washington is in.

Here's what I was working with when I did this: the pricer is steep and I kept adding to the deal when I looked at what Adam Larsson (Taylor Hall) and Hamonic commanded (1st, 2 seconds). I would argue that Carlson is a definite top pair RHD and only 27. The other two are not close to Carlson imo.

I think I commented on affordability above somewhere.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 11:00 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: timmyv38
As a Caps fan, this makes no sense for them. Defense is going to be a weak point for them already, so why would they make it worse to strengthen a position they are already good on? Their 2nd pair will be questionable even with Carlson.


What do you think Washington will do with Carlson's contract up after this year? They don't have a lot of wiggle room under the cap.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 11:04 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: Billius
Quoting: Doug7004


Which might be workable in 2018/19 with really only Nylander due an extension, BUT how does that fit in 19 when Gardiner, (who might be odd man out anyway) Matthiews and Marner need resigning?


I took a look at that and there were two options: either lose Gardiner or else work some magic to offload Martin and Marleau's third contract year. I have a CF showing that Carlson would fit if Marleau and Martin were out. But I think it would be more likely that Leafs can't afford to keep Jake.

I actually do feel they will either trade, and/or move on from Gardiner before then, as they have a steady stream of puck moving LD which should be ready by then! I also see them finding a way to move Marleau's $6.25 cap hit, as he will actually only be owed $1.2 in that final year! Good solid reasonings provided for your deal! However still not convinced! lol

Quoting: Capsule
If Caps can afford JVR in 18-19, they can afford Carlson. This trade doesn´t make any sense for Caps since it leaves them with only two top 4-D.


You raise a good point. I was wondering that too when I first did this. But Caps have a decent top 4 without Carlson and they benefit at a minimum of trading for a LW they can use on 2nd line that they can likely re-sign PLUS all the NHL-ready extras Leafs sent their way. If they did re-sign Carlson, they have a very expensive allocation of Cap to their top 4 Dmen.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 11:15 a.m.
#11
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Still don't understand why people think Caps don't have room next year? I have them with $6M+ in space WITH Carlson signed at $7M AAV. That being said, I make that trade in a second if I'm the Caps. That's a great return.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 11:16 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: Capsule
If Caps can afford JVR in 18-19, they can afford Carlson. This trade doesn´t make any sense for Caps since it leaves them with only two top 4-D.


As a Caps fan I can tell you Carrick is becoming a solid 2nd pairing guy and Djoos is an unknown but looks promising. Had 3rd more points last season in the AHL.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 12:23 p.m.
#13
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Good God. I know Carlson is a defender and JVR a winger so people will value Carlson way higher but they are both UFAs!
Don't see Washington dealing Carlson either. They will 're sign him and move another defender if they have too.
Also how are the Leafs going to pay Nylander and Carlson next year and have enough to sign both Marner and Matthews the following Year?
Literally so many UFA/RFA looking for pay raises within 2 years and you got rid of the cheaper depth options in Carrick an Rychel as well as short term cheap top 6 player in Kapp.
Aug. 7, 2017 at 2:10 p.m.
#14
Ioriomilkshake
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
Quoting: Capsule
If Caps can afford JVR in 18-19, they can afford Carlson. This trade doesn´t make any sense for Caps since it leaves them with only two top 4-D.


As a Caps fan I can tell you Carrick is becoming a solid 2nd pairing guy and Djoos is an unknown but looks promising. Had 3rd more points last season in the AHL.


I´m a Caps fan too, so I can tell you that Caps are in win-now mode so it doesn´t make sense to trade Carlson for a top 6 D just because he has top 4 upside.
Aug. 10, 2017 at 1:37 p.m.
#15
Who adds what?
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I'm a lifelong Caps fan, and I think Carlson is absolutely a #1 defenseman, and a fantastc power play asset. He's the reason the Caps were comfortable losing Mike Green for nothing. I could see this trade happening at the trade deadlne, if it's good for the Leafs. The Caps want to spend this season auditioning their AHL guys in bottom six roles, auditioning their bottom six wings in 2nd line roles, and trying out a couple of defensemen, one of whom (Madson Bowey) is supposed to be the next Niskannen/Carlson. If Bowey and one of the Caps' several LHD prospects are coming along, I could totally see the Caps moving Carlson for a guy they know in Carrick, and three middle six wingers to keep them from having to play all their forward prospects in the playoffs. If the Caps can't re-sign either Carlson or JVR, they'll be pretty happy to get back a good young player like Kapanen, and a defenseman who already knows most of the team from his time in Hershey. Of course, Washington will then, at the same time, make a couple trades for defensemen, because there is no way Barry Trotz is going into the playoffs with just Orlov, Niskannen, Carrick, and rookies. But they were going to end up picking up one or two depth defensemen for insurance, anyway. This just makes them want another 2nd pair guy to hold things together.
 
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