Joined: Jun. 2017
Posts: 373
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In my mind, players that drive possession are probably less likely to have a sophomore slump. Which means talents like Mathews, Werenski, Tkachuk, Mantha, and Provorov probably don't regress. Furthermore, players in great situations probably also won't regress. Point, Nylander, Hartman, Guentzal, and Laine probably fall under this. Lastly, the players that had unusually long slumps during the year will also probably not regress. That includes Aho, who went on a freaky goalless run this year.
That leaves Rantanen, Skjei, and Brown on the list provided.
Rantanen shot 15% this past year, and while that is technically possible, it's more likely he is a 11-13% shooter rather than 15%. While his total points may not decrease, I will take that his goal scoring will.
Skjei got a reasonably decent chunk of powerplay time this past year; with Shattenkirk now there, I expect he'll return back to the second PP, if RM doesn't take it. He may not regress defensively however.
Brown scored 20 goals this year on 16 minutes of ice time, but had mediocre possession numbers and shot 14.4%. Along with the general depth of the Leafs' wings, he is my greatest regression candidate of the players you listed.