What would you trade for Trouba?

Gardiner + Leivo/Soshnikov

The Jets are rather weak on the wings, and were among the worst NHL teams in goals allowed and PK last year. Players like Connor Brown, Kapanen, and even Komarov could fill the gaping holes on their lineup. Losing them would also hurt the Leafs a great deal, but not as much as losing Gardiner, in my opinion.

The Jets also have to be realistic. They can't sign 5 defensemen with top-4 contract money, and hope to sign Laine and other rising youth long term. So Gardiner may not fit their plans so well. They have one too many D right now. I'm sure the Jets would rather keep Trouba, but the feeling may not be mutual.

I value Trouba somewhere above 1 first pick + 2 second round picks, a bit more than Hamonic. So I'd propose Brown + a first pick (and maybe another prospect like Leivo). Can give Marchenko as well to fill a depth spot. I think it's a fair trade.

that wouldn't get it done ... in my opinion, Gardiner=overrated.

Probably Kapanen, Dermott, and maybe a pick.

Gardiner had a 40point season pair that with a cheap 3rd or 4th line forward in Leivo/Sosh that is what Toronto would pay for a guy that has proven he is a childish monkey, like Trouba.

& this would also be why Toronto will not get Trouba, if that is your best offer.

I'm gonna go ahead and guess you were one of the people who called Drouin a "childish monkey" too.

Bill, I think that it takes a bit of a gamble and likely an overpayment so I would offer up Gardiner, Leivo, Shoshnikov, and a 2018 3rd round pick! Some will say that moving Gardiner for Trouba, is solely a lateral move, but I see Leafs D depth being hugely skewed to the left side and this would open up a spot on the main team for a Dermott, Borgman, or Rosen sooner rather than later.

Billus: On this site, about the only trade for Trouba goes to the Leafs. Rarely are other teams involved. And mostly it's a vast overpayment., cause so many think Nylander and Marner have to involved.
From the Leaf view, if Gardiner is included, does it really help the Leafs that much.? Gardiner was the best Leaf Dman that much so it's just a lateral move. I think the Leafs could put together a good package of NHLers and maybe the Rangers too. Bruins could include some high end AHLers. But if the Jets intend to make the playoffs, maybe they need Trouba more than. some lesser pieces.
My offer last week was Brown, Dermot and Carrick. To me that was more than generous for 3 years of Trouba.

I've been doing a lot of numbers research trying to find the right fit for the Leafs on their #1 need: a top pair young right-handed defenseman who also shows promise as a shutdown defensive partner. That would allow Morgan Rielly the chance to play to his strength,spending more time as a puck moving offensive D-man. Right now he plays the 3rd toughest minutes in the league and is spending too much time in his own zone. Hainsey is the temporary solution but he is not ideal. At least he fits the profile of being more focused on defensive responsibility.

Here is a chart I constructed based on Goals Against Replacement (GAR): Top D-Men Based on GAR EVD
I'll skip the detailed explanation but it uses models to predict a player's GAR, the chart ranks the top D-men on overall GAR who have met a basic level of "EVD", Even Strength Defense GAR.
Notice Trouba is #2 on the list at age 23. Not bad.
(Chris Tanev was another I liked that I thought Leafs might be able to trade for and he made the short list as well. Josh Manson is just off the page.)

Here's a Hero Chart of Trouba vs an average #1 Defender. He passes that test too and it weighs in his last 3 seasons (age 21-23): Trouba Hero Chart
By the way, when it comes to the defensive side, Manson's shot suppression is literally off the charts at a 10/10 but that could be related to more sheltered minutes.

Anyway, all that above to show how Trouba made my short list.
So all the above is why I was asking what it would take to get him in a trade (and I know there are rumours he doesn't want to be on a Canadian team).
I would be willing to give up a lot, I wanted to hear what you guys said. Because I think the Jets may know his market value could be very high.

Gardiner ranks in the top 30 D-men on a lot of stats metrics for last season, I'd hate to lose him. He drives a lot of the play when he is on the ice. But he makes a trade more feasible I guess.



I think you're right, the 1st pick + 2 seconds got Hamonic and at least based on recent fancy stats (grain of salt), he does not really compare well to Trouba.



I'm a Gardiner fan but I know many fans don't see it. I would rank him as one of the top 40 Dmen in the league right now



I think the lack of shutdown defensemen on the right side really limits the Leafs. The team overall just gave up too many scoring chances.



Losing Gardiner would be a big blow. I'd rather see something happen involving our wealth of wingers plus some picks and a good defense prospect. Jets are probably on JVR's NMC list.

The Leafs should really consider sending Connor Brown+ type package for Trouba. Anyway, your forward group is quite good and needs a fair chunk of your cap money in the near future. Why not shift one part of that money from F to D? Worth it, imo.

I got no horse in this race though.

Any trade like this for a top pair RHD will feel like an overpay to most Leafs fans who are in love with these young forwards lol. I agree that Leafs probably need to rebalance some $ to D but it's tricky with the 3 rookies needing $25M+ in a couple years. Most of my projections sacrifice further forward spending beyond the Big 3 for a top RHD signing.

Yupp, sounds about right. You know what you're doing. If the Leafs solve the RHD conundrum, they'll be a real team to fear.

JVR/Komarov, Rychel & Dermott.
JVR and Komarov are expiring but help them this year and can be replaced internally with Leivo (hopefully we can re-sign at a good rate next off-season if it still leaves room for the big 3).
Rychel as a wing prospect because above are UFA (also there is no clear path for him in the Leafs org).
Dermott as a d prospect to replace Trouba down the road (Dermott's down to about 5 - 7 on LHD depth, making his road to the show almost impossible barring catastrophic injuries).

I think Trouba is the best fit too, right age, right side, right size, right skill-set.
Not sold on Manson because of the minutes he plays and I know Tanev's numbers look good but I've never been impressed watching him (I know defensive d men aren't supposed to attract attention but the best ones make you say "wow, how did he escape that forecheck" sometimes).

While we are talking trades. Parayko is a stud!

I'm ok with a big package going out if it brings back a top pair RHD. But ONLY for that.

Strip away the rentals and a waiver level (Rychel) and the trade is Dermott.
I just don't see the Jets going for that.

Yeah, Parayko was picked 86th, might be best draft pick St. Louis ever made that deep in the draft. He looks like the next Chris Pronger to me. Blues will not let him go.

The Leafs have an abundance of forwards, I'd package Connor Brown with Dermott and a 3rd. To me that seems more than fair for Trouba.

I only think the Leafs need defence because i DON'T think Gardiner is a top 4 D. If he is, then you have Reilly, Zaitsev, Gardiner, and Carrick, and there's your top 4 ... since i see him as a bottom pairing guy i'd give up something pretty good for Trouba ... i don't think i'd want to move Brown or Hyman ... i'd rather go for a guy like Tanev. Maybe Kapanen, Dermott, a 2nd and something else for Chris Tanev? Or is this too much?

That's way to much for Tanev. Also, how is Gardiner not a top 4 D-man?