This is the debate thread between rangersandislesfan and I. We will be debating which team has the better chance to make the playoffs -- the Islanders (RAIF) or the Flyers (krak).

Our judges are: phillyjabroni, DoctorBreakfast, Jimmybooboo, ON3M4AN, and Rodzikhockey93

you can throw me in as a judge

count me in

Can i explain my reason now?

Go for it.

I think the Islanders will be better than the Flyers because Philly finished the season okay, but not great, and they lost Mason, and they lost Schenn, and they lost Bellemare. Sure, the Islanders lost Hamonic and Strome, but they got Eberle, and will be getting some prospects in the lineup. The Flyers have a good prospect group, but Pulock, Barzal, Ho-Sang, and Dal-Colle seems better than Rubtsov, Patrick, and Morin. Patrick is a great add for Philly, but isn't ready to be a superstar player yet. Philadelphia lost their starting goalie, so they don't really have a starter, and their defence isn't great. Their forward group isn't deep enough either. The Flyers have some good prospects, but we're talking about right now, not in 5 years. Some would say the Islanders have JT and that's about it for top 6 forwards, but Eberle could get 60+ points on a line with Tavares, Nelson is a top 6 forward who could get 50+ points, Barzal could be a pretty good player who cod get 50+ points right away, Beauvillier might be ready to take the next step and get 45-ish points in 2017-18, Anders Lee had a great season, i expect that to continue, Ho-Sang could get a 45-ish point season, Ladd should have a better year, and then yes, John Tavares should get 70+ points, also there's still a tiny chance of the Isles getting Duchene. Bailey had a good year too, Cizikas can add some scoring, and overall, their forward group is actually not that bad.

The Islanders coaching change, i think, is a big reason why they came so close to the playoffs. All they seemed to need was a coaching change, and there's a reason why they struggled with Jack Capuano as coach but suddenly started playing better with Doug Weight as the coach. Often if a team finishes the season good but misses the playoffs after a bad start, the next season they miss the playoffs again, but it's not like the Islanders just randomly started playing better and it just happened to be after the coaching change, that's the reason they played better at the end of the season, the coaching change.

The Flyers have a better #1 D-Man than the Islanders do, but Pulock, Hickey, Leddy, Boychuk, and De-Haan is better than Provorov, Ghostisbehere, and Gudas. Sure, Manning can help out on the 3rd pair, and MacDonald's a good player, but the main 3 guys on the Flyers' defence are Provorov, Ghostisbehere, and Gudas.
I think Pulock is a very underrated prospect by some people. He should quickly turn into a #1 defenseman.

Also, when Elliott's at his best, he's a great goalie, but when he's not, he struggles. Greiss is not a guy who seems like a cup winning type goalie, but he could bring them to the playoffs.

So this is why i think the Islanders will be better than the Flyers.

Krak, you are free to respond to that

The fact that I'm actually defending the Flyers on something is proof that I'm very confident in it. My argument is pretty much split 50/50 between what the Flyers do have going for them and what's wrong with the Islanders.

I'll start with what the Flyers have going for them. On offense, they have some high end firepower in Giroux, Voracek and Simmonds. The middle six is looking good with Courturier, Filppula, Patrick, Konecny, Weal, and Lindblom. Having players like Dale Weise on your fourth line is excellent, since there will be even more scoring. As far as the Islanders go, there are a ton of question marks, even with Tavares. Remember what happened to Steven Stamkos in his contract year? He was sluggish, never got going, and had one of the worst non-lockout seasons of his career. Tavares is going to go through the same process, meaning that these off-ice distractions will have an affect on his on-ice performance.

All of the points you made about the point predictions for the Islanders all had the same word in it: "could". You know what else "could" happen? Dan Girardi "could" win the Norris this upcoming season. Barzal getting 50+ points in a third line role is absurd. Why should Ladd have a better season? He's in the exact same scenario, just another year older. Any time you referenced the point scenarios, it's the absolute best case scenario. That's not how the NHL works.

Defense is the area where the Flyers are definitely much better than the Isles. Provorov is an emerging superstar, and Gostisbehere has shown too much potential to not bounce back. Gudas is a steadying presence, and there are some really good youngsters coming up this season in Sanheim, Morin and Hagg. Manning and Macdonald are also options for them on their bottom pair. That's a very formidable group, and the expected progress from the rest of their defensive youngsters mean that the group is only getting better. For the Isles, they traded their "#1 defenseman" who wouldn't be a number one on most teams. They did nothing to replace him. Nick Leddy is a solid guy, and De Haan has had his moments, but it pales in comparison to the Flyers defense core. With the Islanders, you're getting a lot of uncertainties. Pulock won't be a #1 defenseman right away, so there's still a huge hole on their defense.

Your argument for the Islanders goaltending being better than the Flyers makes absolutely zero sense. You started off by saying that "Philadelphia lost their starting goalie, so they don't really have a starter". You then proceeded to say "Also, when Elliott's at his best, he's a great goalie, but when he's not, he struggles. Greiss is not a guy who seems like a cup winning type goalie, but he could bring them to the playoffs". You contradicted yourself by saying that the Flyers don't have a starting goalie. Also, your stance on Elliot vs Greiss doesn't make sense either. This past season, their numbers were very similar. Elliot was .910 SV% with a 2.55 GAA, while Greiss put up a .913 SV% to go along with a 2.69 GAA. "Also, when Elliott's at his best, he's a great goalie, but when he's not, he struggles". Is this not true for every single goalie to ever play hockey?

In terms of coaching, you yourself said that teams that have a season like the Islanders did tend to miss the playoffs the next season. "Often if a team finishes the season good but misses the playoffs after a bad start, the next season they miss the playoffs again".

One last thing -- why did you reference German Rubtsov, when he doesn't project to have an NHL roster spot for this season? Also, why even bring up Matt Duchene? The Flyers have a chance of acquiring him as well, as does every other team in the NHL. Just because they were linked to him doesn't mean he has a better shot of going there than any team, especially since Hamonic is now gone.

RAIF, you are now able to rebuttal what Krak said

The Elliott thing, yes, it's true with any goalie, but Brian Elliott is often NOT at his best at all.
But when you say "you yourself said that teams that have a season like the Islanders did tend to miss the playoffs the next season.", you didn't mention what i said after that, which is that the Islanders made a coaching change, and that seems to be what helped them. I was saying that this is different.
Sure, the Flyers' top 3 guys on D are better than the Isles', but the Isles' D is deeper. And when i say Barzal 'could' get 50+ points, i mean i expect him to.
I could compare JT, Lee, and Barzal to Giroux, Simmonds, and Voracek.
Ladd has been a good player for a while, he just had a bad year, most players who have that play better the next year.

Then about JT, i expect him to just play his game and not think about the contract thing while playing. If he thinks it will do something to his game, why is he willing to wait to sign?

With the coaching, part of the reason that Weight was successful was that opposing teams weren't able to gameplan against them since they had no real knowledge on his coaching style. Also, a coach being fired mid-season ignites the team in a way that doesn't last very long. Entering this season, teams will know how to gameplan against Weight's system, and the players don't have the same motivation that they had when Capuano got fired.

Let me throw these statistics out there. Last season, there were four rookies to have more than 50 points: Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. Is Barzal just a notch under these guys? Players that came just short of 50 points as a rookie were Sebastian Aho and Matthew Tkachuk. Is Barzal a step above these guys? Some non-rookies who were in the 50s this season for points are Evgeny Kuznetsov, Claude Giroux, Ryan O'Rielly and Nathan Mackinnon. Is he going to be just as productive as these players? Some players who got less than 50 points this season were Jason Zucker, Kevin Hayes, Justin Williams and Victor Rask. Is he going to be more productive than these players as a rookie? 50 points is extremely difficult for a rookie to do, as there is only a select few players that can be that productive. Barzal getting 50+ is a huge mission, and it's highly unlikely that he gets there.

You aren't serious about comparing Tavares, Lee and Barzal to Giroux, Simmonds and Voracek are you? Tavares is a superstar, but you're throwing him in with a rookie and a player who had an extremely high shooting % this year at 17.8%. The chances of him being able to replicate that high mark is unlikely. Not impossible, but it's very unlikely. Meanwhile, you compared them to arguably the best power forward in the NHL right now, a player who nearly got 60 points in a down season, and a player who got over 60 points in a down season. If I had to pick one of those groups, I'd pick the Flyers in a heartbeat.

Aho was injured, wasn't he? Anyway, the Isles are kind of like Tampa anyway. They actually were better than Tampa this year, and just had a bad year after making the playoffs in 2015 and 2016, as well as 2013. Before the season i'm guessing you thought the Isles would make the playoffs. I actually didn't think they would this year, but i do think they'll be better next year.
Of Barzal plays with some goal-scorers, like Beauvillier, he could get 50+ points.

No, the Islanders weren't at all like Tampa. Tampa was a Cup favorite entering the season, but they got absolutely decimated by injuries and inconsistent goaltending, which lead to them missing the playoffs by a hair.

The point is, the Flyers have the upper hand in darn near every aspect of the game over the Islanders. The Isles have JT, a couple other decent forwards, a bad defense core, and a bad goalie tandem. When you throw in the fact that the contract situtation with JT may have a Stamkos-like affect on him this season, it isn't looking good for the Islanders. On the other hand, the Flyers have youth everywhere. The loss of Schenn has become quite overrated by many. While he scored 17 PPG, he only scored 8 at even strength and was a -13 on the season. His offensive zone starts were 57.1%, well above league average, yet his CF% was still below league average. The goals will come, and the defense is ready to allow less of them.

(PS -- before phillyjabroni says something about me using semi-advanced stats, these are very basic and is pretty much the extent of my use of analytics)

Im sorry if Im ruining this but I had to jump in here and point something out.

Yes I could also compare Tie Domi to Sidney Crosby, but how does that make any sense? Tavares has the upperhand over Giroux, sure. But Vorachek has the upper hand over Barzal. And Lee? He should be a bottom 6 forward. Simmonds would dominate and make him swallow so fast before he could say 'top 6'.

So Lord Farquaad, lets not make this mitsake again.

The Islanders' defence isn't that bad. They have Leddy, Boychuk, Hickey, Pulock, and De-Haan. I feel like Boychuk is actually a top 4 d-man. And also, i'm just going to say this: if they're that bad, why did they come so close to the playoffs? Also they were expected to be a bit of a cup contender by most (not me), and about what Mr_cap said, Anders Lee is not a bottom 6 forward, he just scored 30 goals, and Voracek is pretty off-and-on. But this is just me and krakowitz for now.
And let's forget about the Islanders. Even if they miss the playoffs, how are the Flyers better? The Flyers have Giroux and a few more okay forwards, not a good defence, and no starting goalie. That's just what you said about the Islanders but in my opinion you're undervaluing a 30-goal scorer in Lee, and a possible 60 point scorer in Eberle.

"Giroux and a few more okay forwards". Simmonds and Voracek are just "okay"? Also, throwing in players like Filppula for a full season, one of the most underrated forwards in the league with Courturier, plus adding the youth in Patrick and Lindblom looks really, really good. Especially when you consider that Lindblom was fourth in SHL scoring last season (widely considered to be the third best league in the world behind the NHL and KHL) there is a ton of ways that the Flyers can score.

The defense isn't good? Ivan Provorov has legitimate Norris potential, Gostisbehere will bounce back, Gudas is a physical force, and the kids are going to help out a lot. Sanheim, Morin, and maybe even Myers this season will bring energy and some more stability to their backend. And what are you talking about when you say they have no starting goalie? Brian Elliot is definitely a starter. Just two years ago, he had a .930 SV%. He can definitely get close to that feat again this season. How is he so much worse than Greiss?

No. Just no.

Well Tampa likely would have been better if they didn't have injuries.

Well 'JT and a couple decent forwards'. Are you saying that Lee and Nelson and Eberle are just 'decent'? And Maybe the Flyers have the more top d-men and forwards, but the Isles roster is deeper. For example, you can't say, 'hey, the Sharks defence is great just because they have Burns!' The Flyers' 4th d-man is Manning, or maayybee MacDonald. Manning can be a #5, and MacDonald's a good player, but neither of them are top 4 d-men.
The Flyers don't have a deep enough forward group. Sure, they have Giroux, and a few kinda overrated players in Simmonds and Voracek, then Couturier, Patrick, and that's about it for top scorers.
Brian Elliott could be a starter, but Greiss is a starter too. Greiss, i expect him to get a .908 to .912 SV%. Elliott could get anywhere from .875 to .940 ... what i'm saying is that Elliott is super off and on. When the Flames traded for him, didn't they think Ramo was too off and on or something? When they traded for Elliott i thought, 'wow, do they think this guy can be a full-time starter?' the problem is, Neauvirth isn't a good enough starter for if Elliott's struggling, which is likely.

I am saying that those players are just decent. Lee's shooting % was crazy high this year, which means a regression is almost a certainty. Eberle is the best one of the group, and he pales in comparison to someone like Simmonds. You're Islander bias is showing here. The Flyers group of forwards is much deeper than the Islanders' is. Philly boasts three scoring lines, while the Islanders have two on a good day. In today's NHL, three scoring lines is an absolute necessity. Only teams with elite defenses and goaltending can get away with it, and the Islanders certainly don't have either of those.

If you look at what I'd written before, I explain why the Flyers defense group is better than the Islanders. Please give me a reason for why this is true instead of just saying "the Islanders roster is deeper"

How deep a forward group is is not the same as the top players. The Islanders have guys that should get at least a point every 2 games in JT, Lee, Beauvillier, Eberle, Nelson, Ladd, Barzal, maybe Chimera, likely Ho-Sang, possibly Bailey and maybe just maybe Quine, but he seems like more of a playoff player. The Flyers have that in Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier, Patrick, and maybe Filppula and /or Lehtera. Konecny, Weal, and Vecchione go in the same group as some of the later Isles' forwards i said, but now that i think about it, not really Vecchione.
On D, look at the start:
Provorov vs. Pulock - Provorov is better
Hickey vs. Ghostisbehere - Ghostisbehere is better
De-Haan vs. Gudas - De-Haan is better
But then ...
Leddy vs. Manning - Leddy is better
Boychuk vs. MacDonald - Boychuk is better
And then - Mayfield vs. ?
Seidenberg vs. ?

And on forward, why can you say those players are just decent but i can't say that about Philly players? Lee was tied for top 10 in goals this year ... sure, it was just one year, but still ...

Sophomore slumps are very common, and nobody would be surprised to see Beauvillier regress. The reason Provorov won't regress is because he is already a high end player, where Beauvillier is somewhere around middle of the road. Chimera is injured to start the season, so you can't take him into account. Barzal will have a third line role playing with lesser linemates, so he'd have to carry the load on his line to get 40 points. There's no point in mentioning Bailey or Quine. How can you say that Quine is a playoff player when he's played all of 10 playoff games?

Instead of comparing the Islanders best to the Flyers worst, even the playing field. Provorov gets compared to Leddy (Provorov is better). Gostisbehere gets compared to De Haan (Ghost is better). Hickey gets compared to Gudas (close, but Gudas is better). Manning gets compared to Mayfield (Manning is better). Macdonald gets compared to Seidenberg (pretty even, but Seidenberg gets the edge). Pulock gets compared to either Morin, Hagg or Sanheim (impossible to say, since none have more than a few games of NHL experience).

I've already addressed Lee. The chance of him replicating his high shooting percentage is unlikely. Does anyone expect TJ Oshie to shoot around 23% next season? Of course not. The reason that I've said that the Islanders group is just decent is because I've provided reasoning, where you've just said what you thought without anything to back up your claim

First of all: I'd put Hickey ahead of Gudas.
2nd: I've given you a reason why the Flyers' forward group is just decent: They don't have a superstar forward, unless you count Giroux a superstar. Simmonds is comparable to Lee, as he only got in the 50s for points but got 30+ goals. I'll Say Simmonds is a little better than Lee because he's had some better years, even though Lee was better this year. Voracek vs. Barzal, i'll give it to Voracek but you never know, Voracek is a bit like Elliott ... he's kinda off-and-on. Couturier vs. Eberle, i feel like Eberle could actually get 60+ points on the Tavares line. Patrick will likely be a 2nd liner right away, and we are talking about right away, but the Isles also have Nelson, Ladd, Beauvillier, and Ho-Sang.
3rd: Beauvillier is less likely to have a bad 2nd year than Provorov. I'm not saying Provorov will have a bad year for him, i'm just saying Beauvillier won't. He didn't really do that much this year for the Isles, and i expect him to get at least a point every 2 games.

Please take into account the other Flyers forwards. You say "but the Isles also have Nelson, Ladd, Beauvillier, and Ho-Sang" while mentioning only Patrick with those players. The Flyers have Weal, Filppula, Lindblom, Lehtera and Konecny to counter that. Also, just because there is no "superstar" forward, it doesn't make the forward group bad. The Rangers have an excellent offense but no superstar. Surely you'd know that...

Please give me reasoning for why Beauvillier is less likely to regress than someone like Provorov rather than just stating your opinions.