Emotionally in 2018
Joined: Nov. 2016
Posts: 9,290
Likes: 3,387
Honestly, I'm still undecided as to whether or not I think Montreal is in. I'll explain my reasoning.
Up front, Pacioretty and Drouin are both excellent wingers, should get around 60 points each. For some reason, Montreal refuses to put Galchenyuk as their #1 center. He's the best option there, and quite frankly their only option. Drouin's skillset is much better served to be on the wing, so he really isn't an option. Putting Plekanec at 2C is a recipe for disaster, so making Galchenyuk their 1C and Danault the 2C is the best way for them to go about this. The sooner they realize that, the better their season will go. They can't have this glaring issue at a position as important as center. Outside of those guys, there isn't a ton to be excited about. Byron probably won't get to 20 goals again, Shaw doesn't chip in a ton of offense, Gallagher is inconsistent and always hurt, Hemsky isn't anything more than a third liner, etc. Not a lot to be excited about up front.
Defensively, they are extremely slow. Alzner is a great PK guy, but his lack of mobility really got exposed last season. While Weber is an excellent guy, he can't carry the defense core all on his own. Nobody else on that defense can anchor a pairing, which is going to be a big problem for them. It really is going to put a lot of pressure on Carey Price. I'm sure he can handle it almost always, but when he isn't playing or has an off-night, Montreal is in for some hell.
Also the style of play is going to be an issue for them too. It's clear by the moves Bergevin has made that he wants the team to play more physical (swapping Eller with Shaw, bringing in Benn, everything he did at the deadline last year, etc). Slow hockey doesn't really work in today's NHL.
Last reason why I'm skeptical about the Habs is that there are so many other teams trending in the right direction. I see 5 teams from the Metro getting into the playoffs (Pittsburgh, Washington, Columbus, Rangers and Hurricanes), which leaves three spots for the Atlantic. I think there will be 6 teams in the mix for those three spots -- Montreal, Tampa, Toronto, Ottawa, Boston and Buffalo. I like Tampa and Toronto over Montreal for sure, and the other three teams are teams that I think are going to be right around where Montreal will be. I'm really high on Buffalo this season, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they get in. Boston is flying under the radar a lot, they could be right there. Ottawa may not regress as much as everyone seems to think they will. I'm undecided on who I think gets that last spot, but I think it's very realistic to see Montreal not make it.