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PARAYKO RNH TRADE ( 2 OFFERS)

Created by: Solochop19
Team: 2017-18 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 13, 2017
Published: Sep. 15, 2017
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
2.
EDM
    STASTNY
    PARAYKO
    STL
    1. 2018 2nd round pick (EDM)
    Additional Details:
    RNH
    NURSE
    Buyouts
    Buried
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2018
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    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    2019
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    2020
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$75,000,000$61,471,998$825,000$7,225,000$13,528,002
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    $1,500,000$1,500,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
    C
    UFA - 1
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    RW, C
    UFA - 1
    $5,250,000$5,250,000
    LW, RW
    NMC
    UFA - 6
    $8,500,000$8,500,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 8
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $1,100,000$1,100,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    C, LW
    NTC
    UFA - 1
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
    RW
    UFA - 2
    $1,800,000$1,800,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 1
    $1,950,000$1,950,000
    RW
    UFA - 3
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
    LW, RW
    RFA - 1
    $725,000$725,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    $675,000$675,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    $4,167,000$4,167,000
    LD
    UFA - 6
    $4,166,666$4,166,666
    RD
    UFA - 4
    $4,166,666$4,166,666
    G
    NMC
    UFA - 2
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 5
    $750,000$750,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    $4,000,000$4,000,000
    LD/RD
    NMC
    UFA - 4
    $900,000$900,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    LD/RD
    NMC
    UFA - 4

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    Sep. 15, 2017 at 12:31 p.m.
    #1
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    Parayko is wayyyy more valuable than RNH. STL would not do this.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 12:40 p.m.
    #2
    Shibbal18
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    Parayko is a franchise player. Thats like offering RNH and some change for Drai
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 3:09 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: Shibbal18
    Parayko is a franchise player. Thats like offering RNH and some change for Drai


    A franchise player?! You do realize that he's not even the best RD on his team, right?
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 3:13 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: CD282


    A franchise player?! You do realize that he's not even the best RD on his team, right?


    If we are talking about strictly defense zone play. Parayko is the best defenseman on the blues
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 3:33 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: Pasta88Sauce
    Quoting: CD282


    A franchise player?! You do realize that he's not even the best RD on his team, right?


    If we are talking about strictly defense zone play. Parayko is the best defenseman on the blues


    Is he even that, though? Consider this:

    Ranked by GA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.
    Ranked by CA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.
    Ranked by DFA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.

    Bortuzzo, Gunnarsson and Shattenkirk (!) all ranked ahead of Parayko in these areas. Granted, they all played slightly more sheltered minutes than Parayko, but not incredibly so. Parayko played elites 31% of the time, while the others were 23% - 25%.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 3:58 p.m.
    #6
    Lets Go Blues
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    Quoting: CD282
    Quoting: Pasta88Sauce


    If we are talking about strictly defense zone play. Parayko is the best defenseman on the blues


    Is he even that, though? Consider this:

    Ranked by GA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.
    Ranked by CA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.
    Ranked by DFA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.

    Bortuzzo, Gunnarsson and Shattenkirk (!) all ranked ahead of Parayko in these areas. Granted, they all played slightly more sheltered minutes than Parayko, but not incredibly so. Parayko played elites 31% of the time, while the others were 23% - 25%.


    Hmm Interesting... maybe STL should trade Parayko. Of course, if anyone wants him now that these stats show he's the 4th best d-man on the team. Case closed, he sucks and the Blues are stuck with him!
    Pasta88Sauce and phillyjabroni liked this.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 4:53 p.m.
    #7
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    IMO, the second trade suggestion is more than fair. I think of it this way:

    - Parayko is pretty much Nurse with 2 extra years of development** (he's two years older). Crazy talk of Parayko being a franchise player is just that: crazy-talk. He's great, but Nurse is trending to be that player in two years. So the Oilers are getting a 24-year-old right-shot Nurse instead of a 22-year-old left-shot Nurse, if that makes sense. Win for the Oilers.
    - RNH is a very similar player to Stastny but with 10 years left in the tank vs Stastny's 2 or 3 (they're 7 years apart). RNH represents an immediate upgrade at 1C for the Blues, is under control for 4 years (vs Stastny's 1) at $1M less cap hit per year. Win for the Blues.
    - Blues are sending out $12.5M cap and taking $7M in return. They are getting younger players who are under control for longer (Nurse's contract expires next summer, but he's an RFA, vs Stastny who becomes a UFA).
    - Nurse will be signing at 1 year behind Parayko in his development (23yo vs 24yo) so he should sign quite a bit cheaper than Parayko: 6 x $3.5M is a good bet if he has a good season this year.

    ** This is probably a stretch, it appears that Nurse is a lot closer than that. Here are the facts from the 2016-17 season:

    Against elites:
    Parayko (31% of total ice time) 47.3 CF%, 50.2 DFF%, 45.8 GF%, 1.59 GF/60, 1.88 GA/60
    Nurse (24% of total ice time) 47.9 CF%, 47.8 DFF%, 53.8 GF%, 2.66 GF/60, 2.28 GA/60

    Totals:
    Parayko (1334 minutes) 51.0 CF%, 52.3 DFF%, 54.0 GF%, 2.43 GF/60, 2.07 GA/60
    Nurse (662 minutes) 51.1 CF%, 50.7 DFF%, 54.2 GF%, 2.36 GF/60, 1.99 GA/60

    Boxcars, 5x5 only (because Nurse didn't get any PP time to pad his stats) expressed in goals-per-60, assists-per-60, points-per-60:
    Parayko: 0.00 G/60, 1.08 A/60, 1.08 P/60 (0-24-24 in 1334 minutes)
    Nurse: 0.45 G/60, 0.54 A/60, 1.00 P/60 (5-6-11 in 662 minutes)

    If it weren't for his injury last year, Nurse might have posted an even better season than he did. As it is, he's closer to Parayko than most here would care to admit. Maybe that deal isn't as fair as I had suggested... maybe St. Louis is the one adding the pick.
    goldie078 and LobbysOilers liked this.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 5:17 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: AK_tune
    Quoting: CD282


    Is he even that, though? Consider this:

    Ranked by GA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.
    Ranked by CA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.
    Ranked by DFA/60, Parayko was 4th best Blues defenceman in 2016-17.

    Bortuzzo, Gunnarsson and Shattenkirk (!) all ranked ahead of Parayko in these areas. Granted, they all played slightly more sheltered minutes than Parayko, but not incredibly so. Parayko played elites 31% of the time, while the others were 23% - 25%.


    Hmm Interesting... maybe STL should trade Parayko. Of course, if anyone wants him now that these stats show he's the 4th best d-man on the team. Case closed, he sucks and the Blues are stuck with him!


    LOL. Hyperbole much? I never said Parayko sucks, and I would love to have him on the Oilers squad. See post #7 for more detail.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 5:19 p.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: F50marco
    Parayko is wayyyy more valuable than RNH. STL would not do this.


    Parayko is somewhat more valuable than Nurse.
    RNH is somewhat more valuable than Stastny.

    That's how this works.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 6:02 p.m.
    #10
    Lets Go Blues
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    Thanks for sharing the stats, but I don't think they're anywhere close to painting the whole picture. I doubt you'll be able to find anyone else on the planet that thinks Nurse = Parayko.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 6:17 p.m.
    #11
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    Thanks for the details CD282

    I do rate Parayko a bit more highly than Nurse for 2 reasons not covered yet.
    1. Parayko came out of nowhere from college and didn't miss a beat, I've been expecting Nurse to break through since he was drafted. Unfair, doesn't count for squat, but it's the truth.
    2. Parayko has a more punishing game, he's not just big, he plays a bit like Shea Weber. Nurse hasn't shied away from fights or anything like that, he's just less intimidating.

    You did remove PPG from the comparison, and just from memory Parayko does have a nice shot he scores with. I think of Parayko excelling in every category, where I think of Nurse as a very smooth defender. Nurse could outdo Parayko's last 2 years, with his own next 2 -- great point you reminded us of, but I would rather elevate Nurse than downplay Parayko in the evaluation.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 6:27 p.m.
    #12
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    Edited Sep. 15, 2017 at 6:32 p.m.
    Quoting: AK_tune
    Thanks for sharing the stats, but I don't think they're anywhere close to painting the whole picture. I doubt you'll be able to find anyone else on the planet that thinks Nurse = Parayko.


    It's kind of irrelevant, but a quick look shows Darnell Nurse and Nikita Tryamkin are good comparables 1 year apart. I'm so hopeful Tryamkin plays his 2 years in the KHL and returns to the Canucks.
    Worth noting that of the 3, Darnell Nurse was by far the earliest pick
    Darnell Nurse #7 in 2013. 6'4" 213 lbs
    Parayko was #86 in 2012. 6'5" 226 lbs (Parayko probably weighs more today, played like he was 230+ in playoffs)
    Tryamkin was #66 in 2014. 6'7" 265 lbs

    Byfuglien was #245 in 2003. 6'5" 250 lbs

    There is clear bonus value to being bigger so long as you can skate (Griffin Reinhart was drafted because he was big and had a familiar name. He can't even skate or read the play.)
    Until they change the rules, being a big body lets D get away dishing out a lot damage on guys standing still in front of the net or in the corners. You just never know if they learn to skate, read the game at a faster pace, or have hands softer than cement once they stop growing. All of them have the potential to play top pairing for a decade, although more and more giants who can skate are entering the league now so maybe that advantage disappears before they retire.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 6:46 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: AK_tune
    Thanks for sharing the stats, but I don't think they're anywhere close to painting the whole picture. I doubt you'll be able to find anyone else on the planet that thinks Nurse = Parayko.



    Stop trying to put words in my mouth - I never said "Nurse = Parayko." I do think that Nurse is on track to become what Parayko is, however, and demonstrated that he isn't as far behind as many (including you) think. If you choose to ignore the facts, that's your loss. I'm not sure what area you think Parayko is so much farther ahead that Nurse couldn't catch up in two years... I've demonstrated that he's nearly Parayko's equal offensively already, although I think Nurse needs to play a full season injury-free to improve his value and solidify his status as a bona-fide NHL defenceman rather than a prospect with potential. . Both have raw skills and haven't yet become the sum of their parts - whichever does this best becomes the better d-man, although clearly Parayko is ahead at this point. Remember what I said about two more years of development?

    Here's a recent scouting report on Parayko:

    Plus: Has excellent size, good mobility and plenty of offensive acumen from the back end. Displays all-around ability and can log a lot of minutes. His shot is deadly from the point.
    Minus: Is still a bit raw and unrefined in most areas of the game, so he needs to fully hone his skills to maximize output in the NHL. Could also stand to be more physical and imposing.
    Summary: Big, talented, all-round defenseman with some upside.

    Here's a recent scouting report on Nurse:

    Plus: Owns a huge frame and plenty of nastiness to his rock-solid defensive game. Is naturally athletic and displays plenty of shutdown prowess. Is also a willing pugilist, if need be. Skates very well.
    Minus: Is not a natural point-producing defenseman, so he will make his living on the defensive side of the puck. At times, he can get caught out of position when seeking out the massive body check.
    Summary: Talented shutdown defenseman with upside.

    They aren't so dissimilar as you might think. Both men are big (Parayko 6'6, 226 / Nurse 6'4, 220) mobile young defenders with gobs of potential - Parayko is simply a little further along the development curve. Compare them at various ages, though - at 16, 18, 20, for instance - and it could easily be said that Nurse is the better player. We wait...
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 7:04 p.m.
    #14
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    Edited Sep. 15, 2017 at 7:16 p.m.
    Quoting: goldie078
    Thanks for the details CD282

    I do rate Parayko a bit more highly than Nurse for 2 reasons not covered yet.
    1. Parayko came out of nowhere from college and didn't miss a beat, I've been expecting Nurse to break through since he was drafted. Unfair, doesn't count for squat, but it's the truth.
    2. Parayko has a more punishing game, he's not just big, he plays a bit like Shea Weber. Nurse hasn't shied away from fights or anything like that, he's just less intimidating.

    You did remove PPG from the comparison, and just from memory Parayko does have a nice shot he scores with. I think of Parayko excelling in every category, where I think of Nurse as a very smooth defender. Nurse could outdo Parayko's last 2 years, with his own next 2 -- great point you reminded us of, but I would rather elevate Nurse than downplay Parayko in the evaluation.


    Thanks goldie078, I appreciate your rejoinder. I also rate Parayko higher than Nurse, but I wonder if the next two years will change that. Nurse played very well after he came back from injury last year, so hopefully he can put together a 75-82 game campaign this year with good results. It's hugely important for him, as injuries hinder development.

    1. Parayko certainly took a different route to the NHL than Nurse. He never made major junior, wasn't drafted until his 19-year-old year, and then went to college. College is an excellent developmental path for a young defenceman who isn't ready for NHL. Nurse played in the best junior league in the world from 16, was a high pick as an 18-year-old, continued in the OHL until 20, then made the jump directly to the NHL (with a 9 game stint in AHL). Personally I think he would have been better off with a full season in AHL, but Edmonton was starving for defence. St Louis wasn't, so Parayko didn't play in the NHL until 23. We still haven't seen Nurse at 23, so it's hard to compare them directly.
    2. Nurse has a nasty streak that's pretty intimidating, if you ask me. He seeks out the big hit more than Parayko does (see the pro scouting report I quoted above), which can take him out of position leading to chances given up against. This is one area he needs to work on, these things come with experience.
    3. I removed PP points / ice time from the discussion (as is often done in the analytics community), because Nurse didn't play on the PP and Parayko did. It gives a more accurate picture of the two players. Parayko does have a nice point shot and uses it to some effect on the PP. This also increases his value relative to Nurse.
    4. I'm sorry if I came across as downplaying Parayko, as it was not my intention. I have great respect for the player and, as I said previously, would love to see him in an Oilers sweater.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 7:12 p.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: goldie078
    Quoting: AK_tune
    Thanks for sharing the stats, but I don't think they're anywhere close to painting the whole picture. I doubt you'll be able to find anyone else on the planet that thinks Nurse = Parayko.


    It's kind of irrelevant, but a quick look shows Darnell Nurse and Nikita Tryamkin are good comparables 1 year apart. I'm so hopeful Tryamkin plays his 2 years in the KHL and returns to the Canucks.
    Worth noting that of the 3, Darnell Nurse was by far the earliest pick
    Darnell Nurse #7 in 2013. 6'4" 213 lbs
    Parayko was #86 in 2012. 6'5" 226 lbs (Parayko probably weighs more today, played like he was 230+ in playoffs)
    Tryamkin was #66 in 2014. 6'7" 265 lbs

    Byfuglien was #245 in 2003. 6'5" 250 lbs

    There is clear bonus value to being bigger so long as you can skate (Griffin Reinhart was drafted because he was big and had a familiar name. He can't even skate or read the play.)
    Until they change the rules, being a big body lets D get away dishing out a lot damage on guys standing still in front of the net or in the corners. You just never know if they learn to skate, read the game at a faster pace, or have hands softer than cement once they stop growing. All of them have the potential to play top pairing for a decade, although more and more giants who can skate are entering the league now so maybe that advantage disappears before they retire.


    I'm not sure this is relevant, but Parayko was not picked the first year he was eligible, but taken in his second year of eligibility. Tryamkin was passed over for two years after he was eligible. He's actually a year older than Nurse, but was taken in the next draft.
    Sep. 15, 2017 at 7:44 p.m.
    #16
    Lets Go Blues
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    no worries, I'm not upset, I just like defending Parayko. I think the missing piece in all of this is production. Parayko has a couple 30 pt seasons already and still has upside. also not sure how to look up the stats but apparently paraykos zone exit % is top notch.
    Sep. 17, 2017 at 7:30 a.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: AK_tune
    no worries, I'm not upset, I just like defending Parayko. I think the missing piece in all of this is production. Parayko has a couple 30 pt seasons already and still has upside. also not sure how to look up the stats but apparently paraykos zone exit % is top notch.


    Defend Parayko all you like, but use facts and analysis instead of name-calling and innuendo.
    Sep. 17, 2017 at 8:34 a.m.
    #18
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    CD282

    Visit the GM Game 2017-2018 under the forums section of CapFriendly.

    You would be a great addition
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 11:54 a.m.
    #19
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    Edited Sep. 18, 2017 at 12:03 p.m.
    Quoting: CD282


    Defend Parayko all you like, but use facts and analysis instead of name-calling and innuendo.


    Using terrible stats like those stats measuring against elite is bad. binning bullshit is just bad.. Use GAR or WAR impacts far more telling.

    Parayko .22 EVO60 .12EVD60
    Nurse .01 EVO60 -.02EVD60

    Just not close.
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 6:17 p.m.
    #20
    LobbysOilers
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    Quoting: CD282
    IMO, the second trade suggestion is more than fair. I think of it this way:

    - Parayko is pretty much Nurse with 2 extra years of development** (he's two years older). Crazy talk of Parayko being a franchise player is just that: crazy-talk. He's great, but Nurse is trending to be that player in two years. So the Oilers are getting a 24-year-old right-shot Nurse instead of a 22-year-old left-shot Nurse, if that makes sense. Win for the Oilers.
    - RNH is a very similar player to Stastny but with 10 years left in the tank vs Stastny's 2 or 3 (they're 7 years apart). RNH represents an immediate upgrade at 1C for the Blues, is under control for 4 years (vs Stastny's 1) at $1M less cap hit per year. Win for the Blues.
    - Blues are sending out $12.5M cap and taking $7M in return. They are getting younger players who are under control for longer (Nurse's contract expires next summer, but he's an RFA, vs Stastny who becomes a UFA).
    - Nurse will be signing at 1 year behind Parayko in his development (23yo vs 24yo) so he should sign quite a bit cheaper than Parayko: 6 x $3.5M is a good bet if he has a good season this year.

    ** This is probably a stretch, it appears that Nurse is a lot closer than that. Here are the facts from the 2016-17 season:

    Against elites:
    Parayko (31% of total ice time) 47.3 CF%, 50.2 DFF%, 45.8 GF%, 1.59 GF/60, 1.88 GA/60
    Nurse (24% of total ice time) 47.9 CF%, 47.8 DFF%, 53.8 GF%, 2.66 GF/60, 2.28 GA/60

    Totals:
    Parayko (1334 minutes) 51.0 CF%, 52.3 DFF%, 54.0 GF%, 2.43 GF/60, 2.07 GA/60
    Nurse (662 minutes) 51.1 CF%, 50.7 DFF%, 54.2 GF%, 2.36 GF/60, 1.99 GA/60

    Boxcars, 5x5 only (because Nurse didn't get any PP time to pad his stats) expressed in goals-per-60, assists-per-60, points-per-60:
    Parayko: 0.00 G/60, 1.08 A/60, 1.08 P/60 (0-24-24 in 1334 minutes)
    Nurse: 0.45 G/60, 0.54 A/60, 1.00 P/60 (5-6-11 in 662 minutes)

    If it weren't for his injury last year, Nurse might have posted an even better season than he did. As it is, he's closer to Parayko than most here would care to admit. Maybe that deal isn't as fair as I had suggested... maybe St. Louis is the one adding the pick.

    parayko is getting really overrated really quick and nurse is severely underrated
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 6:44 p.m.
    #21
    Lets Go Blues
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    Lobby: I agree to an extent, but overrated and untrade-able are different things. The people expecting him to win a Norris are a bit too optimistic IMO, but I do think he'll get better over the next few years and be able to play 25-27 min per night against top players.

    As to CD282 accusing me of name-calling (?), show me. All I said was that smoothing out all of these stats to even-strength per-60 isn't my preferred method to rate players. Players earn PP time, off. zone starts, time against elites, etc. And I took "Nurse is trending to be that player in two years" as Parayko = Nurse. That wasn't fair on my part (I still disagree that the two are on similar trajectories, but we'll see).

    I'm not sure how to decipher the stats JuniorGM is throwing out there, but I like it . smile
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 6:54 p.m.
    #22
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    EVO and EVD are essentially Even Strength Offensive WAR (Wins/Goals Above Replacement) and Even Strength Defensive WAR (Wins/Goals Above Replacement)

    WAR/GAR is your value to ones team; the market should incorporate that. For example, per DTM the Heart, Oscar Klefbom was top-3 in WAR/GAR. That doesn't mean he is the 3rd most valuable defensemen around the league, it means 3rd in highest value to his respective team.

    In short, Parayko is vastly more valuable to the Blues compared to Darnell Nurse who is limiting in value to the Oilers; keep in mind, this is for Even Strength only, the majority of the TOI for a player
    CD282 liked this.
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 7:01 p.m.
    #23
    Lets Go Blues
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    Quoting: phillyjabroni
    EVO and EVD are essentially Even Strength Offensive WAR (Wins/Goals Above Replacement) and Even Strength Defensive WAR (Wins/Goals Above Replacement)

    WAR/GAR is your value to ones team; the market should incorporate that. For example, per DTM the Heart, Oscar Klefbom was top-3 in WAR/GAR. That doesn't mean he is the 3rd most valuable defensemen around the league, it means 3rd in highest value to his respective team.

    In short, Parayko is vastly more valuable to the Blues compared to Darnell Nurse who is limiting in value to the Oilers; keep in mind, this is for Even Strength only, the majority of the TOI for a player


    Ah, thanks for the info ya Jabroni cheers Do advanced stat guys keep track of successful zone exits/entries for individual players?
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 7:45 p.m.
    #24
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    Yeah they should. It's hard to find a full site that has all that in on central location

    Ownthepuck - HERO ratings
    Hockeyreference - Possession and Generic stats
    Hockeyviz - Visual aids on replacement, shot location, and "value"
    Natural Stat Trick - basically everything else
    A_K liked this.
    Sep. 18, 2017 at 7:46 p.m.
    #25
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    I haven't been able to find a zone entry and that sort of thing
     
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