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Colorado Avalanche -- how did the tire fire start, how will it end?

Sep. 15, 2017 at 2:26 p.m.
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Edited Sep. 15, 2017 at 2:33 p.m.
Since 2009, Colorado has drafted nobody past 10th overall
54 draft picks, and their haul is Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Jost, Makar

In 2013, they could have drafted local boy and top D prospect Seth Jones instead of Mackinnon. It would have done more for the team and they could have added a nice piece for trading down to 2nd or 3rd overall. Granted in 2011 they could have drafted Adam Larsson instead of Landeskog, or in 2017 they were forced by the new lottery to draft Makar instead of Nico Hischier.

Their biggest win was getting Kyle Wood in the 3rd round of 2013, but they traded him in February 2016 to the Coyotes in a package that returned Mikkel Boedker. The Avalanche missed the playoffs by 6 points, a weak 82 pts to Minnesota's lucky 87 pts, in Patrick Roy's last season as coach. Boedker immediately left for San jose, something Paul Stastny had done 2 years earlier when Colorado was at the top with 112 pts or 3rd in the whole league (Stastny left because there wasn't room enough for him, Duchene, O'Reilly, Landeskog, and Mackinnon. So he got paid elsewhere)

Quoting: wikipedia
The 2010 off-season proved limited activity on the Avs' part. Stan Kroenke bought full ownership in the St. Louis Rams of the NFL in 2010. Since the NFL does not allow its owners to hold majority control of major-league teams in other NFL cities, Kroenke turned over day-to-day control of the Denver Nuggets and Avalanche to his son Josh toward the end of 2010, and must sell his controlling interest in both teams by 2014.[80] ...former Avalanche great Joe Sakic served his first duties as new alternate governor and adviser of hockey operations of the club.


Quoting: wikipedia
Greg Sherman (born March 30, 1970 in Scranton, Pennsylvania, United States) is the former general manager of the Colorado Avalanche of the National Hockey League,[1] a post he has held from June 3, 2009 to September 19, 2014. Sherman stepped into the role following seven years as a special assistant to general manager François Giguère and was later replaced by Joe Sakic.


Sounds like a real Mike Milbury hockey genius, I'm surprised I haven't heard his name before.
**edit: this was wrong **
Greg Sherman is still around as GM until summer 2014. He was the one who traded Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart for Eric Johnson. He was the one who let Stastny go for nothing.
Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic took over the roster summer 2013.
I don't have any insight into the management or scouting. I just have an open question because there has been nothing positive since 2009 in terms of drafting/trading/signing


The problems were there before Sakic, Colorado was still coasting off their good '05, '07, '09 drafts. Come 2014, they had lost Stastny and Shattenkirk and were relying on the last above-average draft from '09 with Duchene and O'Reilly.

They've been bringing in about 1 NHL player per draft, nothing past their first pick. Good NHL players have been leaving at increasing rates because everyone hates losing. Now Colorado can't/didn't even bring any free agents in. It's going to be a disaster, maybe no as bad as last season, but there's no hope for the future. They'll still be a losing team, so the pressure will increase to squeeze more wins out, and the players will crack eventually.

2014 was definitely a turning point. Sakic's failure was not immediately overhauling and improving scouting, and then trying to squeeze wins out now at the expense of the future.

If you want an example of a team going from few poorly made draft picks to more draft picks and better selections, the Canucks are a good example under Benning. There have been some questionable choices under Benning, but his scouting team is a real strength. I consider 200 NHL GP as the threshhold between a hit or a miss.
2014: His first year was 5/7 (2 1st, no 4th)
2015: 3/7 (no 2nd, 2x5th)
2016: 2/6 (no 2nd, no 4th, 2x7th)
2017: 5/8 (2x2nd)

Take the 1st + 2nd round picks out, and A GOOD draft is hitting 1/4 or 1/3 on the other picks. This just reflects what I'm confident in today, but you get the point that in 4 years that's 15 prospects. For the slowest of them to develop, you need to add 4-5 years before the NHL. That's just for 200 GP, not saying whether they'll be mediocre or great.
19 play every night, plus the spares, plus the farm team. It takes a long time to build a team when you are only adding 2-3 players per year.

Sure you have some veterans, sure you acquire some older guys who can play in the NHL but who won't be getting any better.
The point is it can be 5 years to start rising in the standings, and 5 more years to hit your stride with a pipeline full of good prospects.
Unless Sakic is super intelligent and a an excellent communicator, he won't be given the trust and confidence necessary for a 10 year project.
If he's savvy and bold, maybe he blows up the team and gets it done in a total of 6 years. Good luck trying to sell fans on trading everyone older than Mackinnon who is 22.

This is much bigger than being just about Duchene now -- whether he stays or goes changes nothing about what led to the tire fire of the modern Colorado Avalanche. I won't be surprised if Duchene is traded before the season, I won't be surprised if he holds out, I won't be surprised if he plays and is dealt at the trade deadline. It all changes nothing for the Avalanche, no one is going to trade an entire winning team to them.\

The worst part for Avalanche fans is they're bound to be better this season with Eric Johnson healthy and a coach who can be expected to take no chances, it'll be a false hope because there's nowhere to continue up from there.
Kotkaniemi15 liked this.
Sep. 15, 2017 at 8:24 p.m.
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ouch
 
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