We all know hockey is a tough sport with many different types of injuries suffered.

The Leafs were "Freakishly" healthy last year with their top 12 scorers only missing 16 man games combined.

Can they honestly maintain this rate??

Man games lost to injury for top 12 scorers on each team:

Anaheim - 66
Arizona - 126
Boston - 71
Buffalo - 96
Calgary - 47
Carolina - 44
Chicago - 90
Colorado - 119
Columbus - 28
Dallas - 137
Detroit - 153
Edmonton - 35
Florida - 112
L.A. - 67
Minnesota - 45
Montreal - 100
Nashville - 114
New Jersey - 146
NY Islanders - 74
NY Rangers - 74
Ottawa - 65
Philadelphia - 135
Pittsburgh - 197
San Jose - 86
St Louis - 108
Tampa Bay - 126

TORONTO - 16

Vancouver - 163
Washington - 59
Winnipeg - 119

I would expect any team with less than 50 man games lost to have that number increase, and as a result lose some production. And conversely, any teams with more than 100 to have a lower number which means they could be more productive than last year.

That Toronto number is A Freak of NHL Nature!!!

I don't wish injuries on any team, I'm a hockey pool player and have been bitten by the bug, but as the players say when asked about injuries "It's part of the game"!!

Isn't this not the same as asking will Leafs win the draft lottery before the season starts?Likely no.

Do they have a chance? Sure everyone does

So this whole conversation started with why I think the Leafs may miss the playoffs this year. I stated my reasons (among them injuries), and you, and I'm sure others have been attacking me ever since suggesting I'm out of my mind. I understand there are a lot of Leaf fans out there that won't be happy with what I'm saying but at least I am backing up with stats why I am saying this!! Holy Mackinaw

This isn't statistical evidence.

Your stating a projection based off that evidence, but you don't have any sort of evidence to back your claim. Show me a trend of increasing games lost by the 12 scorers, and then we can have discourse.

This isn't any different than the San Jose Sharks claim that RAIF makes. "Because they work well together." Okay, that doesn't prove anything.

When you look at the the trend of the 2014 and 2015 drafts, only two players, Dylan Larkin and Sam Bennett, had significance loss in Points Per Game. There are multiple reasons to explain that, one of them for Larkin is an overall below-average team.

Your not "out of your mind" by suggesting a regression. Your out of your mind because you don't have any support to back it up.

Oh I can go back 3 years and then make it statistical evidence, but I shouldn't have to. It's called the Law of Averages:

Law of averages - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

Law of averages. ... While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur.

I thought this VERY CLEAR picture of how fortunate they were last year, so fortunate that it cannot be sustained!!

Did you read this line in that article?
"As invoked in everyday life, the 'law' usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle."

The Law of Averages is not an empirical theorem. You should never use it as a primary backing for an argument.

The fact that Pittsburgh has lost the most man games for top 12 scorers and still has come out on top just goes to show how F'n good that team is. Idk how its even possible to hate on a team that good.

You talk about Toronto, but look at Edmonton too. 2 of the youngest teams in the league and they stayed healthy for the most part. Will be interesting to see how this season plays out.

I'm just not spending the time to pull out the stats to make the empirical theorem, I shouldn't have to anyway, you are arguing to argue. You know it's true and will happen....

Very good point. If they stay healthy they not only win President's Cup, they win the big cup AGAIN!!! And that's coming from a Bruin fan!!!

It also may help explain a really good year for Columbus, Edmonton and Minnesota! Although these are all pretty good teams anyway so they won't regress much.

The Leafs were freakishly healthy last year, their biggest injury was when Marner was out for like 5 games. It's crazy because the year before they led the league in man games lost. Probably should be normal this year. I think they'll probably stay at their spot in the standings though, because they are a better team than last year.

Thanks EthanK. Someone who understands. And I've said that if they regress it won't be by much but everyone is bashing me saying I think they will be at the bottom of the league.

All I'm saying is that when you are a "bubble" team to begin with, you can't afford regression. My personal opinion is that they will just miss the playoffs (because of a few factors stated), but still a team generally getting better every year. Another way of saying it is, just my personal opinion that they overachieved as a team last year.

Law of averages doesn't really make sense here, as we don't have a defined number of odds, and considering we are looking at one season to the next, no where even close to enough repetitions for it to mean anything.




He may have not used data to back his answer, but I think we can all agree here that a team is more likely to lose as the number of injured days for their top players increases.

That's mostly what I was trying to say, yes! And odds are, Leafs numbers will go up. Who knows, maybe not by much but they will

I was curious, so I ran some numbers, based on your 30 data points listed for last years season:

Assuming normal data:
Mean: 93.9
dof:29
St. D: 43.7

Toronto:
x=16
which equals: μ - 1.78σ

Frequency expected outside range:
mean minus 1.5 standard deviations: 1 in 7
mean minus 2 standard deviations 1 in 22

So Toronto's odds assuming the data is normally distributed, of having less than 16 days missed this year, lies somewhere in between 1 in 7 to 1 in 22

I'd conclude it is highly likely they have more than 16 days missed this year, although i doubt the assumption of normalcy is accurate, especially since the data has a lower bound of 0, log-normalcy may be more accurate to assume but I don't want to spend the time testing the normalcy.

Oh man, guys, really?? Just look at the numbers of man games lost!!! And as a fan of what actually happens when watching games!!?? Guys get hurt. Bruins lost Krug last night to a broken jaw. Colin White gone 6-8 weeks the night before. They don't have to be "injury prone". The "injury bug" does not discriminate!!

Leafs got lucky last year, chances are, they will NOT be lucky 2 years in a row. It's all I'm saying folks.....I don't need advanced analytics!!!

Maybe you should keep your personal opinion to the Bruins and not a rival team.
Maybe focus on the regression of Rask and Bostons awful management and trading away top assets (Lucic, Hamilton). Also focus on Bruins awful 2015 draft. They had 3 first round picks and chose Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn over players like Barzal, Chabot, Connor, Eriksson EK, Konecny, Boeser, White, etc.

I think you should worry more on Bruins problems instead of focusing all your time on the Leafs.

Alright, listen up people!!!

Nobody is suggesting that the Leafs are going to be as healthy as they were last season. But when you make these predictions, you have to assume that every team is going to have the exact same issues with health. If I want the Caps to win the Cup this year, I won't just predict "Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Murray, McDavid, Draisaitl, Stamkos and Kucherov are all going to be out for the entire playoffs".

Even then we still won't make it past the second round lmao

So you're saying I can't go on any threads that don't relate to Bruins?

No I'm saying maybe focus more of your time focusing on your own team instead of constantly bashing the Leafs. We get it, you dont like the Leafs.

Leafs fans also don't care about Bruins fans opinions. And vise versa

Can you give examples of those?

Regression of Rask?
Bruins "awful" management?
Awful draft?

Obviously you don't read all posts, because this has been covered in another thread and why those things happened and why those picks are still good picks!!. Hopefully ON3M4N pops in here to comment on your Rask comment and the others.....You can't just drop in on a convo without understanding the history first.

Again, before your top blows. I never suggested Leafs will be the worst team in the league!!! If as a Leaf fan, your team suffers a little regression I hope it's not too much, is that better???

Never said I didn't like the Leafs.

I know my favourite team, inside and out. I drop in on other conversations like, where does Florida finish in the East, and then everybody, I'm sure including Leaf and Hab fans, counting Bruins out (except maybe one) and I just added my opinion why I think Leafs and Habs may not and Bruins might? Am I not allowed to do that? And then I get bashed for my reasoning, so I start a thread to see if anyone agrees with my reasoning and some do, some just don't want to comment in my favour because they personally hate my opinions!! ha ha, and I'm ok with that, doesn't mean I shouldn't be allowed to mention them. It is a free world after all. Ignoring is ok, all good!!