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AC14
Member Since
Dec. 23, 2022
Favourite Team
St. Louis Blues
Forum Posts
3051
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 13 at 1:13 p.m.
Thread:
Paraykos value
As noted, one can generally never say never, but he's effectively not available. The same need you describe for the Sens is the one the Blues have. We need more Parayko, not less. And there is no replacement of any kind in the system right now.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 13 at 12:44 p.m.
Thread:
Paraykos value
I mean I don’t think he’s totally off limits, but it would need to expedite the Blues re-whatever tenfold. He’s been a total horse. Like if the Canucks wanted to give us Tom Willander and some other fun stuff… that could be a starter.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 12 at 3:43 a.m.
Thread:
rebuild
Jets are near the top of the league. They aren't going to let start selling important roster players for 3rd round picks.
I doubt the wings would do that deal.
Two useless players for Leddy, Blues decline.
Hawks would have really no NHL caliber goalie if they made that trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 12 at 2:20 a.m.
Thread:
New Ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>
For all of Kyrou's shortcomings early in the year he's still a PPG player who is an absolute elite rush threat. That shouldn't be overlooked because Brady is a Tkachuk and is a bigger player.</div></div>
Kyrou has been much more attentive defensively this season. His largest issue this season is an outlier career low shooting pct. Hopefully, tonight's wicked display sparks him into moving back closer to his career norm.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11 at 11:55 p.m.
Thread:
New Ideas
I'm confused about "the emergence of Kessel" - at absolute best, he's been "do no harm". He's had some very shaky moments out there. When Krug is bailing you out, it's not so good. In no way, has Kessel "emerged" to the point we can start shedding a top 4 RD.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 11 at 7:39 p.m.
Thread:
Could See Tre Doing This
Yeah the blues aren't trading Parayko
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 10 at 10:55 p.m.
Thread:
Newhook-Dach - similar trades candidates
I won't act like Neighbours is untouchable, but I can promise you he certainly ain't available, either. It had better be a good ass deal for them to come off him. They love that kid like cake. And he's now actually looking like a for real top 6er.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 11:06 p.m.
Thread:
more fair offer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>We could benefit to add some secondary scoring. But I agree. Well most likely take a flyer on someone waived if we move guys out. I wouldn’t hate Snuggy coming up after the NCAA season for a few games just to see how he adjusts</div></div>
First things first, we need to offload and replace at least one top 4 LD. Until that happens, we're spinning wheels. If it does happen, I could totally see Army going after someone like Konecny who fits around RobTom's age, plays a Blues style and is in a situation where he'll possibly be UFA trade bait. The thing is, if we're splurging for a forward for now, I'd kinda rather it be a 2C so we can move Schenn back to the wing and still give our C prospects time to marinate. Of course, that's a harder nut to crack.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5 at 10:49 p.m.
Thread:
more fair offer
We're not in a splurge on an offense only winger phase.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 30, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
Thread:
Kevin Hayes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mergus80</b></div><div>1. MacFarland was at the Blue the Star game on Wednesday, Dec. 27th (according to your best pal Frank)
2. Stars aren’t in a position to sell, so he’s probably looking at the Blue.
3. Colorado is known to be in the market for a 2nd line center as Ryan Johansen isn’t working.
4. St. Louis probably isn’t trading Robert Thomas who’s in year five be of an eight year extension, or Brayden Schenn who was named captain over the summer.
5. Colorado has previous ties to Kevin Hayes, the only other center in St. Louis’s top nine.
Let me know if you need a picture book instead.
Again - I’m not advocating that this would be a good trade for the avalanche. Simply laying out what was reported by a credible writer.</div></div>
You're so angry, its funny. I would have guessed he's your best pal for the way you're offended by my opinion of his work. It's cool to fanboy..
1. GM's scout other teams often, he could just like hockey, or he could be checking in on two teams in his division. The Avs and Stars have made recent trades.
2. GM's make moves to improve their team, not every move is a selling.
3. 2nd line center isn't the only position they're looking to improve. Neither team has a 2c available.
4. Avs couldn't afford one or justify the other.
5. Previous, sure. Never argued that.
I wonder if the blues would be willing to use a retention slot for 3 years when the documented cost is a 6th.
A picture book would offer more in-depth writing than Frank. I appreciate the offer
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 26, 2023 at 2:50 p.m.
Thread:
Panthers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>First is nice but it’s 2 years out. </div></div>
No, it's <em>three </em>drafts away.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Samoskevich is quite good</div></div>
For college, yeah. At the NHL level, I'm not convinced. He actually plays smaller than he is, and he's already a little smaller than average.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 24, 2023 at 5:08 p.m.
Thread:
Defence Upgrade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Are you aware of who and what Nick Leddy is? Let’s then ask, what about Marco Scandella? How about Tyler Tucker? Maybe Niko Mikkola?
Then let’s add the defensive stalwarts of Brayden Schenn? Kevin Hayes maybe?
Quantifying defense individually is nonsense. All of the top players on most quantified defensive setups are generally on the same team or at least very close to their individual partners.
I’m not advocating the Leafs should take Parayko. I’m advocating that he’s a heck of a lot better than most people who lean on charts versus seeing individual impact give him credit for.
Will his contract be rough towards the last year or two of his deal? Sure. But in the meantime if we aren’t moving the rest of the group that is ensuring he has to be caved in there’s no reason to worry about it at this point in time. We are a 1 line team, with one good defenseman and two pretty solid goalies with a bunch of spare parts that don’t fit.
I’m not saying he’s Cale Makar, but not one of the best 60 defensemen in the league? You can probably make a list of 30-40 that I’d at least entertain.</div></div>
But no no no, we're supposed to take a circular subjective formula of another subjective formula based entirely on a subjective stat, with the player sight unseen! That's the true gospel! Only then can you understand that Timothy Liljegren is damn near an all-star while Parayko is one of the worst players in the league! It's unassailable! :tearsofjoy
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 24, 2023 at 5:22 p.m.
Thread:
Defence Upgrade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I’m just confused how all of the hockey geniuses with rinks 2 blocks from their house don’t understand that every defensive opportunity is not 1 on 1. Measuring a defenseman used in an extreme shutdown role with partners who have never done it before and forwards who lack defensive responsibility for the large majority of the group versus the field is not similar. You can move the goal posts for every scenario but it’s still the same. Absolutely nobody in the NHL is put through the usage Parayko and Leddy have the last two seasons. Do I expect his underlying stats to be good? No, he’s on the far extreme of what the baseline is.</div></div>
Well, we're supposed to defer to their inherently superior hockey knowledge, of course!
But yeah, the usage Parayko gets is downright sadistic. Now we send him out there half the time facing top lines along with the Blues 3rd and 4th lines. And he has been among the top few skaters on the ice in nearly every game this season.
But so what, right? Coz Dom, Mr. Subjective himself, who <em>tooootally </em>never thumbs the scale (wink wink), said snide stuff about a player he never watches. I'm not sure he could pick Parayko from a police line-up. But he's the authority. Coz Toronto osmosis.
AND if you do not defer to these blind authorities, you are a Toronto "hater" then. Because fake victimhood is a debate TKO. Or something.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 19, 2023 at 7:58 p.m.
Thread:
Asking price for Brady should be what Calgary got for Matthew
Matthew was fresh off a 100 point season and was a RFA so Florida knew they could sign him for 8 years. Brady has never had more than 83 points in a season and is signed for half the 8 years of Matthew. Not to mention that Brady is only on pace for 66 points this season.
Brady doesn’t get close to what Matthew got. Sorry Sens fans.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 15, 2023 at 12:48 a.m.
Thread:
next year
Deal. Hell, you could keep both those players and it's a deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 15, 2023 at 2:58 a.m.
Thread:
Quack
Value seems fair, Terry's on a better deal, Kyru is probably a better player, value proposition is probably a push. Everything else is expiring UFAs.
Question is why either team would do this, it's just shuffling pieces and not addressing either teams needs.
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Dec. 14, 2023 at 11:13 p.m.
Thread:
Jordan Kyrou
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>Blues fans just booed him when he stepped on the ice tonight.</div></div>
Fans are fans not the front office lol
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 13, 2023 at 4:46 p.m.
Thread:
hmmm
So basically you want the Blues to trade a player and retain for a 5th rounder?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 13, 2023 at 2:26 p.m.
Thread:
Its time
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>We are in 0 position cap wise and competitiveness wise to be shelling out a 2nd and a 3rd for a Backlund.</div></div>
Description brother. Always good to read first
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 8, 2023 at 12:56 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year Blues Give thoughts below Blues fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Why exactly would Bolduc have no value?</div></div>
Dude ignore this guy. PHI would be idiots not to accept this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 8, 2023 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year Blues Give thoughts below Blues fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HolyJumpin81</b></div><div>Fair point lol but our prospects are a bit away from making an impact and we can't really tear it down yet so we gotta start somewhere</div></div>
Armstrong will continue to let our stud prospects develop while continuing to try to field a somewhat competitive NHL club. Until our prospects are NHL ready and some of our aging vets filter out, the Blues will be in the mushy middle. Nothing wrong with that, but it's banking on these prospects developing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 8, 2023 at 12:11 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year Blues Give thoughts below Blues fans
In what realm of the multiverse does STL start shipping out assets when they can't win two games in a row? It's going to be a few years before STL makes a trade like this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread:
Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I took a few things away from this. I think the Kings do still have the culture of winning. Heck Doughty, Kopitar and Quick were some of the faces of those runs they went on. I think this is what pushes them over the edge currently to having them have been extremely successful the past two seasons. I think it's a model that's extremely similar to the Blues model. The outcome is the process of the whole type of situation.
I do agree with you though, I don't really consider them a true top end team. They aren't a Tampa, and barring Byfield ascending to being a true 1C with high end output and Clarke doing the same I don't think they'll get there. But what they do have is an extremely good base that should keep them successful and give them a chance for the next 5, probably 10 years.
I also don't really think the Pacific has been all that great anytime in the recent past. Alot of teams with alot of true issues.
But the good news for them is they have an environment for guys like Byfield and Brandt to be brought into good positions and be the alpha dogs there in the next 2-3 years while winning and doing so. I don't mind Armstrong shooting for this. But I also am not sure it's feasible to avoid the longterm turnaround. One way or another we're going to have to age out the Krug contract, ESPECIALLY if Doug isn't going to play hardball on the NTC.
I'm in a boat that has a pretty large appreciation for Armstrong as the GM and President of Hockey Ops. I think he's very concealed, but also very open and honest about his direction. Has he had some mistakes? For sure. I don't think anyone is going to know what exactly went down with the whole Pietrangelo situation. But that was a major root into the downfall of the roster. Not necessarily just because of the loss of Pietrangelo, but also because of the moves that seemed to be made out of urgency to try and fill the gap.</div></div>
Well the Byfield/Brandt thing, that's more or less what the Blues did with Thomas and Kyrou right? The team was good when those guys were coming up after being mediocre-ish when they were drafted. The Blues just couldn't maintain the momentum. Maybe you can blame some of it on the flat cap but you talk about Pietrangelo leaving- like to me that was just the worst offender of a problem the Blues had for awhile, which is that they seemed to stop understanding what made defensemen valuable, and generally acted very reactively.
- You extend Faulk into his mid thirties when he had never played a game while you're trying to re-sign your captain
- Bouwmeester goes down permanently and your only LHD is Vince Dunn so you panic and extend Scandella in his mid thirties based on 10 games while still trying to re-sign your captain
- Pietrangelo leaves so you panic and extend Krug (never mind that Devon Toews was traded three days later)
- Extend Parayko coming off a back injury until he's 37 because you can't fathom another Pietrangelo situation
- Scandella can't hack top four minutes (who would have thought?) so you panic trade for Leddy (giving away a future top pairing defenseman in the process)
Some of these guys are big. Some of them are small. Some of them are offensive. Some of them not so much. Some of them are puck movers, some not. They're all over the place except for one thing- they're old, and they're as expensive as they'll ever be. And in the meantime they hemorrhage younger guys who would go on to play top pairing minutes on other teams, and look pretty good doing it.
I don't mean to relitigate all this but when it comes to Armstrong- I think he's a decent GM, can't deny the ring, but I do think all GMs have a shelf life, and that timeline of mismanagement on the blue line is pretty damming. And frankly, I like Travis Sanheim but that's another guy signed into oblivion Armstrong supposedly tried to trade for. Not exactly indicative of someone learning their lesson to me. He can be a good GM but also, idk, for me maybe it's time.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2023 at 3:56 p.m.
Thread:
Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>So i did a little bit of brief digging because i was moreso interested in how the Kings exactly went about things because the draft picks the higher ones really have not been a huge factor thus far.
2017-2018 45-29-8 (98 points)
Notable Salaries:
Doughty 11m Thru 25-26 Still Active
Kopitar 10m thru 23-24 Still Active
Quick 5.8m thru 22-23 Traded last deadline
Brown 5.875 thru 21-22 Ran through Expiry
Kovalchuk 6.25 thru 20-21 (Contract Terminated 2019)
Martinez 4m thru 20-21 (Traded 2020 (2 2nd round picks))
Carter 5.275 thru 21-22 (Traded 2021 50% retained on expiring deal for 3rd + 4th)
After this season is when their collapse started equivalent to last season for us. They had made a few small additions in the offseason but nothing big.
2018-2019 31-42-9 (71 points)
extended Walker 2.65 thru 23-24
Maata 3.33 thru 21-22
Kempe 2m x 2
Iafollo 2.425 one year
The following 2 seasons they did largely nothing
2019-2020 29-35-6 (64 points)
No significant adds very similar
2020-2021 (49 points) COVID Year 6th in div
No significant adds very similar
Then this is where they started to be aggressive as there was very limited time on Brown, Maata expiring. Quick couple years left.
2021-2022 (99 points)
Added Danault
Added Arvidsson
added Edler
extended Roy
added Athanasiou
Trevor Moore Bridge
Stetcher minimal contract
Then the next year they added Fiala and that's pretty current to where they stand. Now there was certainly youth that came in to play in this but it wasn't very significant.
Vilardi 54 games 24 points 2020-21, missed most of 21-22, good season last season then traded in PLD trade.
Kalyiev had a pretty minimal contribution in 21-22, .5ppg last season in limited action, this season looks like he's taking another stride.
Byfield hasn't really jumped until this season. Last season wasn't bad.
What can we learn from this?
LAK realized it pretty quickly and started selling - Armstrong did the same this past season with ROR/Barby/Tarasenko
They then went into a holding pattern to let some of the other contracts run out (Brown, Kovalchuk (got lucky here), Carter, Martinez (debatable if it needed to run out wasn't awful), Quick, Kopitar, Doughty). The last two aren't really part of a problem really, just moreso they are running towards the end of their careers so included them.
What do the Blues have in that front that need to run out?
Saad - 3 more at 4.5m
Hayes - 3 more at 3.6m
Schenn - 5 more at 6.5m
Krug - 4 more at 6.5m
Faulk- 4 more at 6.5m
Leddy- 3 more at 4m
Parayko - 7 more at 6.5m
Scandella - Expiring this season not integral.
You can categorize Parayko, and probably Schenn in that moreso Kopitar and Doughty scenario. But they aren't those two. So there's one hurdle to climb. But what is good (Or bad however you view it) is that we essentially already have our Fiala in Kyrou, I would take Thomas' contribution over PLDs as well.
So while we can probably comp to the pieces that LA had we have alot larger of a hill to climb. Meaning I don't really see too well how we are going to start that uptick in year 4 of the retool without additional work (Moving Faulk/Krug). But what is good is the youth injection that we will probably miss out on isn't what turned things around for LA. However, it's highly likely it's going to be what pushes them upwards even more. So do we <em>Need<em> to bottom out? No not necessarily. LA rebounded with mainly young guys who weren't high end talents jumping up and their roles expanding. What worries me is how we're going to navigate adding in supplemental guys - Arvidsson/Iafollo/Danault/ to help push us over the edge if we dont</em></em></div></div>
Nice work! I'm sure that took a long time lol.
Yeah like I said I'm not totally sold on the Kings as like true cup contenders a big reason for that is a lot of their guys are really good but not great. To their credit, they do have a LOT of those really good guys, more than most teams. Kempe/Fiala/Danault/Roy/Gavrikov, even Dubois (maybe at a reduced price)- these are important guys that you have at the top of your lineup. But, I'm not sure they are the ones that are really making it happen in the playoffs. Kopitar/Doughty- still very very good but I'm not sure if they're still at that gamebreaking level. And then the young guys might just be a little too green.
I guess I'm also not looking at the Kings as a roster that's been "successfully" rebuilt. Like they're good this year and they've been decent the last couple of years. But since they won the cup in 2014 this is how it's gone:
14-15 missed playoffs
15-16 lost in first round
16-17 missed playoffs
17-18 lost in first round
18-19 missed playoffs
19-20 missed playoffs
20-21 missed playoffs
21-22 lost in first round
22-23 lost in first round
Maybe you cut them some slack for running into the Oilers twice and obviously there's still a wide range of possibilities for their future but I guess I'm not looking at this rebuild, with a lot of depth, a lot of big names but not a lot of game breaking talent anymore, and being like "woah the Kings!". They've done some good work here and there but they wasted a lot of prime years of Kopitar and Doughty without much direction after the 2nd cup win, then they rebuilt (which was necessary) and by necessity, had to burn more prime years, and now they're good but like I said I don't know that they have what it takes to get past some of the bigger guns in the conference.
So if Armstrong wants to emulate the Kings, I kind of would hope he would aim higher and be more aggressive (in one way or another).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread:
Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I don't think anybody wants to see it but it's the reality of the situation unfortunately. I really thought Doug would strong arm Krug into taking the trade to Philadelphia. I'm not sure of the reasoning for him being so stringent on NMCs yet he allows NTCs to be NMCs.</div></div>
He literally had a quote once where he was like "I've never had a NTC affect my ability to make a trade" and that certainly felt not true at the time but is absolutely not true now
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