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Lets Go Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 2:43 p.m.
Thread: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>1 - Dude, what?? No clue what you're missing. I used to think he was a less mean Ekholm. I may have undersold him.

2 - First of all, I did not say that one D change make us a contender. More importantly, puck decisions affect every single thing you mentioned and every single thing you didn't. Handling of the puck touches every aspect of the game, in both directions, PLUS the mental part of the game. Puck decisions are everything. Whether your roster is in a transition phase or contending, puck decisions can make you or doom you. That's not the weeds. That's the forest.</div></div>

Ok, if they just made better decisions with the puck, they'd be good. Unfortunately the summation of puck decisions is what equates to the quality of the player, and that's hard to change.

Regardless of how hopeful you are that the roster can transition into something better, is it unfair to say that the GM galaxy-brained the last 5 years? Is he not allowed to receive criticism for his terrible contracts? A rebuild/retool/re-whatever - that was always going to happen in the "window" world that the cap produces - would be much easier if there wasn't a massive amount of money owed to under-performers.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 2:23 p.m.
Thread: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>First of all, step back from the ledge about our prospects, buddy. Lindstein is far better than Gunny (who isn't a bad thing btw). Develop is not a straight line, sometimes demotions are just to allow the kid to play top minutes with top responsibilities before he comes back.

As for the defense, I keep saying this, it's not all about "the defense" crew. So much of the blame lies with the forwards it's not funny. Schenn by himself turns the puck over in/at our zone more than all our Dmen besides Krug put together. And when it is the Dmen, it's often not even the D part. It's the puck decisions part. Turning over the puck at our line to give the other team a 2 on 0 or passing straight to their unmarked guy in the slot are not really "D" matters. Puck decisions are the #1 problem plaguing the Blues, both this season and last. We're too cute too often. That's not how we're meant to play. We're not meant to be reckless with the puck and then chase it all night. We need puck control, and this group is way too careless. Silly mistakes with no pressure and everything. Hard to blame the D or the G when they keep getting these impossible situations thrown at them.

If we cannot move Krug, just buy him out prior to UFA day. Grab Forsling. That one change would change SO much. We need to play the offseason smarter than we've played the regular season. Past decisions are gone, we go from here.</div></div>

Lindstein is David Runblad if he isn't Carl Gunnarsson. Maybe I'm exaggerating the prospect part but it's impossible to judge for a few more years. I just don't see much to get hyped about.

You're getting into the weeds when you talk about puck decisions; look at the big picture and tell me that replacing Krug with Forsling is gonna make this team a contender. 3 guys on pace to eclipse 45 pts. 21st in goals, 15th in goals against while getting the absolute max performance from the goalie tandem. Anyone who needs to be moved can decline the trade. This team is stuck in the mud my friend.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread: The Value of Buchnevich
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>I appreciate the thought in your description but at the end of the day all of these arguments are meaningless. NHL teams decide whether they're going to trade a player or not, then worry about price -- there's no magical 'godfather' offer or breaking point at which they make decisions like that. IF (and that's a big if) the Blues decide to trade Buch, the return will be extremely predictable.

At the end of the day, he is a good (even very good!) player but not a superstar approaching 30. Those players ALWAYS go for exactly 1 first, 1 a B- to B+ prospect, and salary filler to make the deal work. Sometimes you get that extra second, sometimes you don't. Lindholm is just the latest in a long line of the exact same returns for this level of player. Horvat, Meier, DeBrincat, Bertuzzi, ROR, Tarasenko, Fiala, Giroux, Tofolli, Reinhart, Mantha are all just forward examples from the last 3 years. Add H. Lindholm, Orlov, Kuemper in there as well for even more comps or if you want to stretch back the time period a bit add in Zucker, Stone, Pacioretty, Hall, K Hayes as well.

The ONLY players who have been moved for significantly more than this are Eichel and Tkachuk -- two players who could make legitimate claims to being top 10 forwards in the league both now and at the time they were traded -- and Brandon Hagel, who had a uniquely low cap hit / buyer in Tampa. I think Buchnevich is certainly towards the higher end of players in that first group, but definitely not in the Eichel/Tkachuk tier.

The final thing I'd say is about "cap dumps." A cap dump is taking on a bad contract (especially one with many years left) in exchange for picks. Most trades for big players don't involve dumps but rather salary filler. Guys who probably are overpaid/paid for too long but are necessarily taken back to facilitate a deal. Think Craig Smith to WSH last year in the Orlov deal, Rutta/Granlund/Petry/Hoffman in the Karlsson deal, Beauvillier in the Horvat deal, and most recently Kuzmenko in the Lindholm deal. These players do not increase the value that a team gets back for taking them - it's just the cost of doing business. Ceci/Forbort/Atkinson all fall into this category and would not increase the amount of futures needed for a deal. Even Kuznetsov is bordering right on that level for that proposal, and certainly wouldn't add a whole other first rounder.</div></div>

Can't argue about the salary + B prospect + late 1st package for a 1yr rental, but Buch would be a 2-yr rental, at either 5.8m or 2.9m. If no one wants to offer better than the stock rental package, no reason to do it until next season.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 19 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread: Deadline version 69 - gut this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Last night officially put me in tank mode.</div></div>

Welcome aboard the ship, let's take on some water. Admittedly this was a really tough part of the schedule, but it feels like the past 2 games mark the end of the new coach bump. This team is just low on talent and unable to outscore the elephant-in-the-room top 4 defense. Like <a href="/users/AC14" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AC14</a> said, the depth beyond the top line is just not there. And we've been waiting for the special teams to show up but we're now past the halfway point and it's still a bottom 3 PP. It could've gone either way this season, but now the important thing is that it goes either way. Don't finish in 17th place for the love of God.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 17 at 12:36 p.m.
Thread: Kinda hard to evaliate what to do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>smokewiseganja</b></div><div>I’ve seen a few games. The underlying numbers are all you need to know he’s not great. Blues fans seem to be the only ones that think he’s decent</div></div>

Whether we're right or wrong, we've all seen what Parayko can accomplish in the right situation and we're convinced that the numbers are dragged down from playing the no.1 role on a below-average team with a well-below-average defense and an awful choice for a partner, the always professional but mostly terrible Mr. Nick Leddy. It's easy to say that he'd be better somewhere else or with some other partner, hard to prove it. Maybe the contract will age poorly but right now the guy seems to be capable of his former self.

And we know that trading him would put the remaining Dmen even further out of their depth and this team would absolutely stink for a few years. Not the worst thing to happen, but not the direction the front office is taking. I think once they trim the fat they'll be searching for a capable partner to pair with Parayko.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 9 at 4:46 p.m.