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Aero_Astro_Guy

aeroastro.MN
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 14, 2023 at 1:23 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 5, 2022 at 6:04 p.m.
Thread: Carolina side
Necas and a first/second and maybe a smaller prospect would probably be the offer for Fiala. Drury isn’t going anywhere, especially since he likely makes the roster full time next season. But looking at the Canes right now, they definitely need a sniper, but I have a feeling that they will try running in back for another year. If Necas can truly breakout, he doesn’t get traded, but what happens afterward is a mystery. I am pretty sure Nino already has a deal in place, and there is a mutual interest between Tro and the Canes to resign, but I don’t know if that happens or not. And then TDA, probably takes a discount to keep rebuilding his image and play for a contender, but again, the future is a mystery.

That being said, Bear is likely traded in the off-season, and I think Canes go for a cheaper third pairing d than Rutta. Plus, Canes have at least 4 dmen in Chicago that could make the roster next year. Sellgren and Lajoie on the left and Chatfield and Keane on the right provides 4 quality options that can be rotated.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 5:28 p.m.
Thread: What I would have done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>None of this is known. And interest does not equal a bid. Fiala has to agree to sign with that team too. So you’re missing a few steps.

Say….hypothetically, all six have interest.

Which will have the cap space?
Which will hold out for UFAs (Gaudreau, Forsberg)?
Which of them will Fiala sign with?

Don’t expect a bidding war.</div></div>

I expect a bidding war about as much as you don't.

Interest is interest.

All it takes is that interest, from multiple teams, to ensure a fair return. Which is all I'm looking for in return for the guy.

Guerin clearly feels the same.

As for your hypothetical.

1) A team's cap space is determined by what they're willing to move to fit said player under their cap, even if it requires subsequent moves at a later date to accomplish, if they feel that player is worth it and what they need.

2) If they can afford either Gaudreau or Forsberg, they can afford Fiala. Who is younger and likely cheaper than either option and still has a year of RFA, albeit with arbitration rights, but still has that control. They do not.

In this hypothetical scenario a GM is competing with 4 other GM's for a player's services but is still dealing for a RFA who is younger than his UFA counterparts that can likely be extended for cheaper than the cost it would take to sign the others.

With Gaudreau and Forsberg that same GM is likely competing with 15 other GM's for that same player's services. Which is only going to drive that player's price up. How is that a better option?

Gaudreau is going to likely come in around $9-10M on his next contract. Forsberg $8-9M. Fiala will likely command $7-8M.

Ergo, Fiala likely makes for the best target despite the assets given up. He's easily the most economical choice out there this off-season. Which provides value.

3) If he's smart... all of them.

Seriously, this argument has never made much sense to me. And I'd expect his agent at Newport to feel the same way I do.

Limiting where he's willing to sign long-term with, only hurts him and his next contract. More teams involved means his agent can play this off like a real UFA signing and attempt to get the best contract possible for their client. If he instead decides to limit where he wants to go, something he doesn't have control over by the way, he's potentially looking at a worse contract that those teams ​can provide.

Limiting where he's willing to sign is asinine. Not if he wants top dollar on his next contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 3:36 p.m.
Thread: What I would have done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Guerin has been slighting Fiala in the media and has publicly said he doesn’t expect to get a haul in the Fiala trade (Guerin said not going “win the trade”). He also knows, it will not likely be a multiple team bidding war for Fiala (“in a perfect world there will be more than one team involved”).

I don’t know how people keep seeing a Fiala price so high. Believe what the GM is trying to tell you.


Take out Mercer and that is probably closer to package they will be getting.</div></div>

Your generalizing. And once again fitting the narrative by picking and choosing what he's said and disregarding other important parts because it doesn't fit that narrative.

Guerin literally walked back his comments on Fiala a few days later when talking to Russo on his Athletic podcast Straight from the Source.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>The context is that Guerin’s comments were actually about Matt Dumba, the longtime Wild defenseman whom Guerin feels is sometimes unfairly targeted for criticism. It’s not helping matters that the popular theory is the only way to save Fiala in Minnesota would be to trade Dumba, who has one year left on his contract at $6 million. That’s because other big-ticket players — guys like Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Mats Zuccarello — have no-move and no-trade protection.

So in trying to deflect blame away from Dumba, Guerin said, “Why is it always Dumba? Dumba plays a lot of minutes for us. There are a lot of things that Matt Dumba does really well. Everybody has their shortcomings. Kevin didn’t do well in the playoffs, but we’re all dying to keep him.”

Guerin continued: “If I sound a little pissed off or annoyed, I am. Because all I hear is Matt getting dumped on, and you know what? It’s not easy doing what he did, playing in the condition he did (after breaking and dislocating ribs in April causing a punctured lung).

“I like Matt Dumba. I think he’s a damn good defenseman, and people want to write him out of town just because Kevin had three good months.”

<strong>That last line was piercing and probably something Guerin regrets. He made clear on Monday’s hourlong “Straight from the Source” podcast on The Athletic that he feels Fiala had a “great year.”</strong>

<strong>“Make no bones about it: Anytime you produce like that, it’s a great year,” Guerin said, adding that Fiala had the right to be frustrated for some time because before Matt Boldy arrived in early January, he had a revolving door of linemates for much of his Wild tenure.</strong>

There’s no doubt that impacted Fiala’s ability to create chemistry with anybody, affected his overall consistency and often made him look like a man alone on an island who had to create everything all by his lonesome.

But regardless, the Wild don’t have much cap space, Fiala’s coming off a second straight disappointing postseason (one goal in 13 games over the past two playoffs) and it sure feels like the extremely complicated relationship between Fiala and coach Dean Evason (they’re good for each other but drive one another bonkers) is readying for a split.

“Kevin’s a good kid. He’s a good guy,” Guerin said. <strong>“He’s had some success here, and I think he likes it here. But I also think he’s realistic. His agents are good guys and smart and they know the market. It’s a tough situation. Hey, look, we really like Kevin. Kevin’s a great kid. He had a helluva year for us. Who wouldn’t want that on their team?”</strong>

Precisely.

Which brings us to who would want Fiala on their team and what the Wild could fetch for him.

As of now, Guerin said he has had no trade talks regarding Fiala, but he indicated that could start in a few weeks as the playoffs begin to wrap up and the July 7-8 NHL Draft approaches.

<strong>Asked on “Straight from the Source” how he’ll be able to maximize value for Fiala when everybody in the league knows he can’t afford him and he’s one year from unrestricted free agency, Guerin said, “In a perfect world, we’d probably have multiple teams interested. And I’m sure there will be, and then you make your best deal. Like I’ve always said, I’m not in it to win a trade. I want fair value for what we’re about to give up.

“We’ll see what the market is, but I think Kevin’s a pretty valuable guy.”
</strong>
</div>

Asking for what he considers fair value and not looking to pull a fast one on his fellow GM's doesn't mean he's looking to get bent over either.

Fair for him could very well mean Holtz or Mercer and a 2nd. Not necessarily the 2nd ova. You have no way of justifiably saying that he is going to get absolutely nothing of note back for a PPG 80+ point winger.

And by Guerin's own words. He thinks he's pretty valuable.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2022 at 10:18 a.m.
Thread: fiala
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tbrew</b></div><div>I don’t know about that Fiala deal. He was only good for 3 months, so it seems like a huge overpay</div></div>

Fiala is a hell of a player. He put up 85 point season with “only 3 good months” imagine what he’ll do when he puts a full season together?! 🤯. He’s a 90+ Point player if he’s playing with good players. He put up 85 points playing with a 4th line C and a rookie. Put him with Andres Lee and Brock Nelson or Barzel and man, those are deadly lines. Fiala constantly set up his linemates who couldn't finish. He’s got more assist potential. I’ll also say he’s very exciting to watch play, does moves only a handful of players can pull off.

This was more referring to Fiala the player not the trade package. As a Wild fan I’m sad to see him go.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2022 at 10:01 a.m.
Thread: My take on Devils trade
I don't think Mercer or #2oa are being offered unless its a trade for Wallstedt, which I doubt is even considered by MIN.

What are MIN's biggest needs? I have always thought they needed lower AAV player or ELCs, 2C or 3C, 2RW or 3RW and Draft capital. And if they keep Hartman at C, they would have bigger need at RW. If they acquire a top-6 C, Hartman can move back to wing. Does that sound about right? Here are our assets for each group

1. Low AAV (Boqvist, Kuokkanen, Bastian, McLeod, Smith...maybe Graves or Johnsson retained)
2. C (Zacha, Boqvist, Zetterlund, McLeod)
3. RW (Tatar, Zetterlund, Thompson, Johnsson, Stillman, Clarke)
4. Draft picks (2nd this year (#37), 3rd this year (#69), future protected 1sts)

Just spitballing packages here...
1. Fabian Zetterlund, Tyce Thompson, 2022 2nd round pick (#37)
2. Pavel Zacha, 2022 2nd round pick (#37), 2022 3rd round pick (#69)
3. Ty Smith, Chase Stillman, 2022 3rd round pick (#69)
4. 2023 1st round pick (protected), 2022 2nd round pick (#37), 2024 2nd round pick
5. Jesper Boqvist, Ethan Edwards, 2022 2nd round pick (#37)
6. Janne Kuokkanen, Arseni Gritsyuk, 2022 4th round pick (#101)
7. Ryan Graves (50%), Samu Salminen, 2022 3rd round pick (#69)