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Arh613

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Oct. 8, 2021
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Buffalo Sabres
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 23 at 1:08 p.m.
Thread: probably not right
Ignoring the Calgary deal, because everyone knows Rasmus Andersson is not being traded, the others are fine value wise. If that is San Jose’s price for Sturm, I would make that trade yesterday. However, I propose an addendum to your plan. Some San Jose fans have seen value in bringing in Olofsson, and rather than taking a third round pick in return for him half retained, I would rather look to get an asset the team can use now. Specifically, I would go after Luke Kunin, who brings the size and physicality that this team is missing. He doesn’t exactly have a great scoring touch, but produces about as well as Greenway. The Sabres clearly need another power forward type like Greenway, and Luke Kunin not only fits that bill, but is not an old player who will be going away. Some would say bringing him in takes a roster spot from players like Kulích next year, but none of them bring the size or physicality I am talking about here. You are probably saying goodbye to Okposo, Girgensons, and possibly Robinson next year, he replaces one of them.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2023 at 1:23 p.m.
Thread: everybody will like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>No he is not worth that much, but I think that we need to start differentiating between the value of a first round pick.

If the Sabres 24 1st is somewhere between 17-24 (first round exit), 25 1st is between 24-32 thats way way different than it being top 10 picks. The quality and timeline of players is crazy different in those positions. Rosen was taken 14th overall, and truthfully I like him as a prospect. He is now going into his D+3 without any NHL games and probably doesn't get any this year either tbh which is completely fine because he was a project, but you wouldn't trade say a 20th overall 24 first for him at next years draft I don't think, point being that he may be worth a bit less than Sabres fans are valuing him as. Savoie is really the only blue chip piece. Krebs is a nice defensive bottom 6 C with some attitude (likely SOME untapped offensive potential) and Joki is a toss in very servicable bottom 4 dman who would need a contract.

I agree that this price is likely a bit high on what Petterson would be worth, but lets not pretend like Eichel (who never went over 100 pts in Buffalo) with a serious neck injury didn't get a significant trade package.
projected mid to late first = projected mid to late first
projected mid to late first &gt; projected mid to late second
Savioe &gt; Krebs
Krebs &lt;&lt; Tuch
RFA Rights to Joki

I don't wanna trade Thompson and a 1st because we already know who he is as a ~90 point ~40 goal guy at 7Mill AAV long term. I'd wayyy rather move futures</div></div>

I hear ya, BUT :

1- Vancouver isn’t moving him
2- we aren’t bringing in a $10mil per player

Seems to me that you’re putting a lot of thought into something that has a near zero percent chance of happening
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2023 at 12:28 p.m.
Thread: everybody will like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>I agree with what you are both saying, but IF (completely not likely to happen) he didn't wanna commit longterm wouldn't you think that Vancouver would be looking for more of a futures package?

PS - If you posted the same thing about Dahlin I wouldn't be able to wrap my mind around it. So as I know that its like a 0.00001% chance that happens I'm not too worried about the answer</div></div>

Assuming Buffalo's first is a top 10 in 2024 and Buff is offering Savoie, Rosen, another 1st and Krebs (although I find him overrated on CF :flushed ) and Jok (who is merely is nothing burger in this deal)....

AND, assuming Petey isn't happy with the direction the team is heading, yes this is an offer that would be discussed.

I say 'discussed' because it would be held in a super secret location in the middle of Siberia so no one knows Allvin had discussions about the franchise player, even if he ends up miffed about team direction. It's a lot of talent on the board, especially if the 2024 pick is an early first.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2023 at 7:29 p.m.
Thread: Three Teamer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>Okay fine, but I need someone to please explain to me where Hanifin is playing and how we are affording the 8x~6 mill AAV contract that he is going to command next offseason.</div></div>

If you've listened to Granato and Adams talk in the past about their opinions on the handedness, it should be obvious that they prioritize the right fit in terms of talent, character and ability first and don't really worry about a defenseman playing his natural side vs. opposite side. Granato recently said during development camp that any of their defensemen should be able to play with one of the other 5 defensemen and we've seen that in the past how the 2LHD Dahlin/Samuelsson pairing works.

There have been enough rumblings in the past to suggest the Sabres do have interest in Hanifin, no doubt because of his age, USNTDP history under Granato and ability to play an up-tempo system because of his skating. If they were to try to acquire Hanifin, it would be because they'd see a top 5 group of Dahlin-Power-Hanifin-Samuelsson-Clifton as deeper and more reliable 1-5 than they had before, regardless of how many RHD vs LHD they'd have. The question would be if Jokiharju has to be forfeited in the Hanifin package or not. Erik Johnson has to be assumed as a regular but only for 1 year at the moment. As to pairings, it shouldn't be unexpected if Granato expects any of Power, Hanifin, Clifton, Jokiharju and/or Johnson to play either side at different points of the season. Adams is likely also making sure he keeps space for Ryan Johnson in 1-2 years and even Novikov potentially - which a Hanifin commitment limits.

The bigger obstacle of why they wouldn't go after Hanifin, which you alluded to, is what his next extension will look like. Adams has to be thinking long-term - if Dahlin and Power get extended in the $17-18M combined range on top of the $4M committed to Samuelsson, it's hard to see Adams wanting to give Hanifin also $6-7M and have nearly $30M tied up in 4 defensemen.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 21, 2023 at 12:44 p.m.
Thread: totally unserious organization
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>Where are you getting the internal cap number from just curious?

Maybe unsustainable and I agree that not everybody will have career years again this season, but is it not reasonable to expect at the very least a more consistent presence an output from nearly every player: Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Mitts, Krebs, Dahlin, Power, Sammy + including Levi in the goaltending conversation already improves the roster. Building through the draft means that you need to let players develop and play. No reason to try to open a window for 4~5 years right at this second when you could have a ~10 year window starting after next year based on the pipeline + assets on hand</div></div>

I could say "you ask around, you hear things" but thats not a good answer since you dont know me cant take my word for it so Ill put it this way. If you closely follow the spending habits over the last few years, you can see a major shift in how the team operates.

it's not just the lack of activity in the trade market or FA, i mean as pointed out, FA is a cesspool anyways. They are nickel and diming players at the lowest level. Dustin Tokarski left because the pegula's didnt want to give him a 1 way deal, which is typical for goalies in the AHL. The structure of contracts for fringe forwards? also includes a massive drop in minor league salary. Its a difference of like 200k, which they never used to care about, now its the biggest deal in the world.

But maybe the biggest give away is that if you look at these extensions, save for the first year of the deal, none of it is structured with bonuses. Almost all high end players get them throughout their deals, but the Sabres absolutely refuse to give them. Ever wonder why the worlds worst penalty kill never gets upgraded? That would require paying assistant coaches who know what they are doing more money than the goofballs who are currently here. The scouting department is still bare bones. Kevin Devine and Jerry Forton still have jobs here!! Part of it is the hit they took from the pandemic, sure, but really theyre just far more committed to the NFL side of thing because frankly, its better for them.

About the compete window, I have a genuine question. What team has ever had a 10 year window? not a window as in like playoff team, 10 years of genuine stanley cup competitive rosters? Most of the best usually get a 4-5 year target zone because they double down to improve their chances of winning. ITs the natural trade off. Your window gets "shorter" but your odds at winning in theory get better
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 21, 2023 at 12:49 p.m.
Thread: totally unserious organization
Sounds like you are pretty despondent. Which is weird considering the massive improvement our team and organization has made in the past 2 years. If there is any time to be hyped to be a Sabres fan its now. Adams' is smart, he won't overpay a UFA when he knows that could hurt our future. Okposo and Girgensons are proven NHL players, giving them 2.5 mil for one more year is a great thing. Especially with how important both are to the young players in the locker room. Greenway was a flyer, one I personally didn't like and still don't. However, if he turns in a 25-30 point season and chips in physically than that trade may show some value.

Our organization really just needs one more really solid defenseman and a goalie to tandem with Levi. Those can be acquired via trade or FA and there are plenty of options for both. We have a plethora of prospects and picks in which we can spend some to acquire an impact player.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2023 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>I would think that is true, but maybe if the sabres added something like a B prospect or another mid round pick that could be enough to dump Mantha + only move back 3 spots and acquire a bottom 6 forward who can play wing or center and is somewhat cost controlled. I threw in Bryson at basically league min to be like a 6/7 D if that's of interest as well. Is there something to be added that would make the Caps move back or are they most likely to stand pat and see who falls to them?</div></div>

The Caps problem is that they have too many bottom six forwards and not enough top six. They've also got their top 6 D pretty well set and a few guys who should be competing for the 7th D spot (lucas Johansen, Hardy Haman Aktell, Gabriel Carlsson if they give him a QO). This trade doesn't really do much for the Caps.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2023 at 1:49 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>I would think that is true, but maybe if the sabres added something like a B prospect or another mid round pick that could be enough to dump Mantha + only move back 3 spots and acquire a bottom 6 forward who can play wing or center and is somewhat cost controlled. I threw in Bryson at basically league min to be like a 6/7 D if that's of interest as well. Is there something to be added that would make the Caps move back or are they most likely to stand pat and see who falls to them?</div></div>

In all honesty, I don't think the Caps are seriously considering moving back at all. My belief is that there are three possible outcomes for the 8th pick on draft day (ranked from most likely to least likely)
1. The Caps stand pat and make the pick at 8 (I would guess Benson, Dvorsky, or Danielson, or possibly even Michkov if he falls all the way to 8)
2. The Caps trade up, most likely with Montreal, to take Michkov.
3. The Caps trade the pick as part of a bigger deal for a top 6 forward, i.e. William Nylander
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 14, 2023 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: Simple moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>Excuse me if I'm asking a dumb question here, but what do you think Gibson's value is?

In addition what pieces is Anaheim looking for in a return assuming that you have a realistic expectation in mind?

Could it be possible that Gibson is more valuable to Anaheim then outside teams looking at the recent trend in statistics? (Again forgive me, I am unwilling to pay for fancy analytics at the moment so maybe he is playing significantly better then his raw stats show.) Because to be quite honest I would be nervous about the Sabres acquiring Gibson at his current cap hit and thinking he's the guy who is gonna stabilize the crease leading up to Levi..</div></div>
It makes little sense for Anaheim to retain on Gibson when you guys have over $9 million in cap space.
Change the draft pick to your 2023 first and I think that's a fair offer for four seasons of a starting goaltender.
John Gibson trades are one of the five most controversial topics on CapFriendly, because a significant portion of almost every fanbase will scream -- not say, scream -- that he's no good, so I admire your firmness in raising the subject at all.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 14, 2023 at 9:53 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2, 2023 at 1:33 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>Not right now, just like John Marino wasn't at this time last year. Not saying he will definitely get moved, but there are often surprise defensemen that get moved in the offseason and he could be a candidate being on a team with FO turnover. You'd know better than me tho


Asking for savioe is unrealistic IMO, I'd be willing to negotiate on the year of the first though.</div></div>


The Crux of the issue with Anderson is that he isn't close to his prime yet and by virtue of his position is in higher demand. Moreover, he is on a very friendly deal with term still. Even if you are rebuilding/retooling, there isn't much incentive to trade him unless the deal is significantly above market. Of all the teams Calgary could/should trade with Buffalo seems the most logical though. Calgary has a lot of pieces that could provide that added depth/leadership for Buffalo to make the playoffs. Buffalo also has a deep prospect pool which will be vying for roster spots.