May 29, 2018
Toronto Maple Leafs
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HawksFan28</b></div><div>Nylander is probably going to be traded for a cost controlled defenseman...... Funny how he's not signed yet.
I mean the notion that Toronto fans believe the leafs can somehow defy the salary cap is pretty amazing - especially when it's simple math..........But yea I forgot, those young kids don't care about getting paid market value.....
And it's funny, you keep on referring to contracts that were signed a while ago...... There is a reason why Crosby only makes 8.7 million - right because he signed his contract 5 years ago when 8.7 was tops in the league...
You're joking yourself if you think this is all going to workout without any cap issues at all....
Nylander will probably be traded -- and you can bet if some GM's want to get nasty they give Nylander an offer sheet and really force Toronto's hand, the same can be done next summer with Matthews and Marner if theyr'e not signed to extensions........ And to be honest with you, If I'm Lou - you can bet your ass I will offer-sheet anyone of them considering they lost Tavares for nothing....</div></div>
You're only lying to yourself if you think i compared Nylander's contract to contracts that were signed a while ago. I only referred to two contracts, Pastrnak (SIGNING DATE: September 14, 2017) and Ehlers (SIGNING DATE: October 4, 2017) only one year ago so how does this compare to bringing up Crosby's contract? Did you also notice how these players were signed in the fall and not immediately after July 1st, funny how they weren't traded. Also I'm not suggesting that the leafs rip these players off and somehow defy the cap like you seem to think. You originally set the parameters for "market value" (remember age, production, potential and comparable contracts?) All i did was use those metrics to show that Nylander's market value was not as high as some people like to point out, especially not at this point in his career where he has no contract leverage as he is just finishing his ELC, has no arbitration rights and is an RFA whose only play is to sit out until he gets what he wants, which in the end will only hurt his value especially if he sits the full year. Btw the Islanders don't have the picks necessary to offersheet Nylander unless they re-acquire their own second and third rounders. And plus, even if they did offer sheet any of these players you realize they would have to sign it for it to mean anything right? Why would any of these kids leave what has the potential to be a perennial Stanley Cup contender to play for a team who currently looks like they would lose to the Marlies? Would they really do that for a few extra million bucks, none of these 3 players are even 22 years old yet, they have over a decade to make more money than they could ever know what to do with.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HawksFan28</b></div><div>Wrong.....
The cap went up - that means salaries go up too, the only comparable to Matthews is McDavid, and no doubt Matthews will get McDavid money if not more. 12.5
Marner is going to want Draisaitl money and he will get it 8.5
Nylander is going to want 7.5 at least..
Look, JVR just got 7, are you saying Nylander at his age isn't worth more than that?
Toronto is going to be in cap hell with 40 million tied up in 4 players..
And the notion that these kids will just take a "discount" isn't going to happen - this is the first huge contract these kids are going to have to get paid and they're going to want as much as possible, because who knows, they could get injured 2 years down the road and they're no longer the player they once were - but at least they will be set for life... So you better believe they're going to get paid...
I mean at the very least Toronto is going to have to dump Kadri and Marleau..
The notion these guys are going to take lowball offers is just insanity when you look around the league and there are guys that aren't as good as them making more .....
Age, potential, production and comparisons is how you determine these salaries - not what you believe they are "subjectively" worth..</div></div>
If Dubas wants to play hardball with Nylander all he has to do is look no further than Nik Ehlers' deal in Winnipeg, who is set to make $6M per for the next 7 years starting in 2018-2019. So if the Leafs were to lock up Nylander for $6M per for 7 years, both players would make 7.5% of the $79.5M salary cap in 2018-2019. What makes these two players comparable is nearly everything. So using your metrics of age, potential and production for comparison you will see that Nylander and his agent are not in a position to demand $7.5M.
Both are 22 years old and were drafted in the first round of the 2014 draft (8th and 9th overall) and both signed their ELCs at age 18.
In two full seasons Ehlers scored 54 goals, 70 assists and 124 points (25 on the PP) in 164 games for 0.76 points per game, playing 16:30 minutes a night on average. In the same two seasons Nylander scored 42 goals, 80 assists and 122 points (38 on the PP) in 163 games for 0.75 points per game, playing 16:30 minutes a night on average. Both players have played with elite line-mates at both 5v5 and on the powerplay.
Both players have the potential to be top line scoring wingers (which they already are). So judging by their past performance it is easy to project that both players will consistently score within the 60-70 point range over the course of a full season.
Thus, since many of the contracts in the league are decided by comparable player contracts, a precedent has already been set that a winger of Nylander's caliber, at his age, is objectively worth $6M per year. What statistics can his agent bring to the table that would merit his client being paid more? Maybe David Pastrnaks contract? lets see.
Pastrnak is also 22 years old and signed his ELC at 18.
In the same two full seasons, he has scored 69 goals, 81 assists, and 150 points (50 on the PP) in 157 games for 0.96 points per game. Making it likely that he gets 70-80 points a year in a full season.
He makes $6.6M per season which started in 2017-2018 meaning he made 8.8% of the $75M salary cap, which for Nylander would only come out to $6.9M per year. However, based on production and potential it does not appear that he deserves as much as Pastrnak.