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BeastModeUnknown

CPDunn Untouchable
Member Since
Mar 18, 2018
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St. Louis Blues
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Carolina Hurricanes
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Saint Louis
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290
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 3 at 6:33
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Borocop</b></div><div>idk the blues fan in me thinks brown would be a really nice piece in the middle 6, works hard, checks hard, can skate well. It wouldnt make sense for STL now because you're taking 2 pieces that can contribute when the blues inevitably go on another playoff run this postseason and turning it into one that wouldnt even really have an effect on the team because of how deep the wings are already. With that being said however, one of dunn or sundqvist are probably going to be gone in the expansion draft and if this deal was proposed in the offseason it would be waaay more likely. The sens would need to add a more enticing second piece than mike reilly, but the blues get a solid middle 6 guy with a reasonable cap hit for what he brings with some term to give them some flexibility to re-sign other guys in the offseason, in exhange for a guy they would have lost anyways and another depth contributor. Scott Perunovic could probably instantly step in right now for Dunn if were being completely honest and i think he has a higher ceiling in the long run anyways. I like dunn but if the sens added another decent piece instead of reilly (maybe abramov or another okay prospect) i wouldnt totally be mad at this.</div></div>

I do think your right. Reason now why I would be enticed to trade Dunn for more of Armstrong's asking price and up is because Scott Perunovich (Collegiate Defenseman of the Year, Captain of 2 National Championship Teams), and Niko Mikkola would be great everyday Left Handers. Which leaves Dunn sandwiched in, so yes Blues would probably be open to trading Dunn, but it would be for either an Expansion Draft Exempt player, or a Draft pick so we don't lose Vince Dunn for completely nothing. Scott Perunovich is one heck of a player, and Niko Mikkola has been holding his own. I think they can be valuable pieces here in the very near future.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 3 at 6:20
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Borocop</b></div><div>idk the blues fan in me thinks brown would be a really nice piece in the middle 6, works hard, checks hard, can skate well. It wouldnt make sense for STL now because you're taking 2 pieces that can contribute when the blues inevitably go on another playoff run this postseason and turning it into one that wouldnt even really have an effect on the team because of how deep the wings are already. With that being said however, one of dunn or sundqvist are probably going to be gone in the expansion draft and if this deal was proposed in the offseason it would be waaay more likely. The sens would need to add a more enticing second piece than mike reilly, but the blues get a solid middle 6 guy with a reasonable cap hit for what he brings with some term to give them some flexibility to re-sign other guys in the offseason, in exhange for a guy they would have lost anyways and another depth contributor. Scott Perunovic could probably instantly step in right now for Dunn if were being completely honest and i think he has a higher ceiling in the long run anyways. I like dunn but if the sens added another decent piece instead of reilly (maybe abramov or another okay prospect) i wouldnt totally be mad at this.</div></div>

Well it's kind of counterproductive in my opinion to just trade for another guy that we probably lose in the expansion draft anyway so we would pretty much lose Vince Dunn for nothing. Kind of where I stand. I did think about it, what if Blues traded a 2nd Round Pick, Klim Kostin, another decent forward prospect with a guy like De La Rose getting taken, or since Alexander Steen's contract is technically still up there in the LTIR if they take his contract instead which would essentially give them extra cap room for other players because that's a free roster spot, and extra cap due to LTIR reasons.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 3 at 5:34
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensibleguy</b></div><div>"he's like the back of my dad's car right now"

You're arguing with a kid, this isn't worth it, lol</div></div>

It's funny that you think you are arguing with a kid. In all actuality you are arguing with someone who knows a lot about Blues hockey. You on the other hand have never watched a single Blues game in your life, but now you have me blocked I can't make you salty because you can't see it. Only reason you blocked me is because I don't let you have your way homering at every turn. Tkachuk isn't the greatest on the ice, hate to break it to you, Chabot is not the next Bobby Orr, and I really hate to break it to you. Ottawa is not very good, and to think you want every other team to pay an arm and a leg for your players who gets scored on average of about 4 goals a night. I mean Getzlaf for Stepan as a base for a trade, and Tierney for Murphy as another base for a trade is just well OOF.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 3 at 5:28
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Borocop</b></div><div>jesus murphy dont take is so personally, it doesnt make sense for the blues anyways because they're already fine at the wing, sundqvist is a good player aswell so it doesnt really make sens to move him. Ill be honest im not going to read all of that lmao but i will say Stasny didnt get a first in return because hes got 1 year left and vegas was clearly selling him, browns a pretty good middle 6 winger on a fair contract for 3 more years, all i was saying was the value was probably alrightish</div></div>

Value is yes alrightish, but Ottawa is winning this one by quite a bit, and that's something Sensibleguy, and Alfie both don't understand. You are winning this because you are gaining pieces you need, but Blues are losing the deal due to one Brown not being a fit in St.Louis, and 2 Dunn being a valuable asset as a active defenseman for the Blues. Sensibleguy doesn't want to reason, which is why it was good talking to you more. i agree with you, and I like your perspective. It's rather Sensibleguy wasn't looking at it from Blues perspective which in all of the trades Ive seen him do he never has only looks at it one dimensional and thats in ottawa's position. (Most of his deals aren't that great either).
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 3 at 4:50
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWo/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPKThumb/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPKThumb/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94">

These are the main points, and Sundqvist is playing in a fourth line role because he's one of the better checking lines, and Sundqvist doesn't not only play bottom 6 lines, because the fact the Blues start the 4th line on the ice at beginning of the game most of the time show why he doesn't that just a little bit of proof. If you want to go based on his teammates being Paul and Tierney and whoever else in the mix. All of those players are better than barbashev offensively, and in normal circumstances, and probably right now even though stats aren't up to date this year probably better than Clifford offensively too. Don't keep it narrow minded that Sundqvist plays fourth line because that's how bad he is, no Berube loves to spread out talent on lines based on what he wants that line to be overall. Hoffman is on the third line right now. Sanford is on the first line with O'Reilly he primarily played with O'Reilly the past 2 years, I wouldn't put him above a 3rd liner in most cases, honestly Sundqvist night in night out outperforms him. This season Sundqvist has had a 60.9% Defensive Zone Start, so the fact that he's in his zone more time than in the offensive zone doesn't show poor metrics he just starts in his own zone a ton. They constantly put that line up against top lines. You'll see it often. Obviously I know Connor Brown is okay, but you see the stats up top.

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWiThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWoThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

If he's so good why does the team have a more effective offensive rating with him off the ice?

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPKThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPKThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

Why is it that offenses against Connor Brown have a +19 percent on the PK and without him on the PK it's a +9 Percent. No granted the PK of Ottawa is still bad either way, but it's worse with Connor Brown which proves my point. Only thing I will say and I've already spammed enough charts is that Brown has a +16 with on PP effectiveness. The fact that the 4 players that Brown played with the most was Tkachuk, Pageau, Tierney, Paul. And it was actually primarily Paul and Tkachuk as the top 2. Tkachuk is one of the best players on the team, and one of the most effective forwards right now. The top 4 players Sundqvist played with were Alexander Steen, MacKenzie MacEachern, Samuel Blais, Ivan Barbashev. Ivan Barbashev being the highest one and he has some very bad statlines on BOTH ends of the ice. I'm not gonna even get into how bad he is on measurements. Blais and Steen are okay, they aren't the worst but both of them are still below average. MacEachern is at best a Top 6 AHL player. Then when Sundqvist moves up the lineup he does very well because he has players around him, but I'm just saying the PK numbers speak for themselves that is an abysmal job by Connor Brown, and those are isolated numbers that has nothing to do with goaltending. Those are isolated numbers. Sundqvist over the past 2 years has had over 60% in Defensive Zone Start times. 58% the year before. They primarily use his line as a defensive line. Connor Brown doesn't have that great of a line.

Vince Dunn for the most part has had Robert Bortuzzo as his linemate with a mix in of Pietrangelo from time to time. Dunn's RAPM over 4 years has been exceptional. Mike Reilly your own fanbase on this server has called him "the worst defenseman on the team" If that's what you want us to downgrade to for if you want to say Brown is better, a very small upgrade to Brown when the gap between Reilly, and Dunn is that big. Especially when for upgrading at a very small portion we are taking on an extra million dollars that we do not have is preposterous for the Blues. Like I get where you are coming from, but the dynamic of the Blues is built on defense. We don't need Sundqvist to play offense all the time. Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou line has been phenomenal, Hoffman-Thomas-Bozak/Blais line will find it's way. Sanford-O'Reilly-Perron line has been dynamic as well. But what I come back to on this deal, and it was even said by Doug Armstrong you want Vince Dunn it's going to cost you a first round pick.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Borocop</b></div><div>there are defnitely teams that would give up a first for connor brown</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWo/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPKThumb/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPKThumb/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94">

These are the main points, and Sundqvist is playing in a fourth line role because he's one of the better checking lines, and Sundqvist doesn't not only play bottom 6 lines, because the fact the Blues start the 4th line on the ice at beginning of the game most of the time show why he doesn't that just a little bit of proof. If you want to go based on his teammates being Paul and Tierney and whoever else in the mix. All of those players are better than barbashev offensively, and in normal circumstances, and probably right now even though stats aren't up to date this year probably better than Clifford offensively too. Don't keep it narrow minded that Sundqvist plays fourth line because that's how bad he is, no Berube loves to spread out talent on lines based on what he wants that line to be overall. Hoffman is on the third line right now. Sanford is on the first line with O'Reilly he primarily played with O'Reilly the past 2 years, I wouldn't put him above a 3rd liner in most cases, honestly Sundqvist night in night out outperforms him. This season Sundqvist has had a 60.9% Defensive Zone Start, so the fact that he's in his zone more time than in the offensive zone doesn't show poor metrics he just starts in his own zone a ton. They constantly put that line up against top lines. You'll see it often. Obviously I know Connor Brown is okay, but you see the stats up top.

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWiThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWoThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

If he's so good why does the team have a more effective offensive rating with him off the ice?

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPKThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPKThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

Why is it that offenses against Connor Brown have a +19 percent on the PK and without him on the PK it's a +9 Percent. No granted the PK of Ottawa is still bad either way, but it's worse with Connor Brown which proves my point. Only thing I will say and I've already spammed enough charts is that Brown has a +16 with on PP effectiveness. The fact that the 4 players that Brown played with the most was Tkachuk, Pageau, Tierney, Paul. And it was actually primarily Paul and Tkachuk as the top 2. Tkachuk is one of the best players on the team, and one of the most effective forwards right now. The top 4 players Sundqvist played with were Alexander Steen, MacKenzie MacEachern, Samuel Blais, Ivan Barbashev. Ivan Barbashev being the highest one and he has some very bad statlines on BOTH ends of the ice. I'm not gonna even get into how bad he is on measurements. Blais and Steen are okay, they aren't the worst but both of them are still below average. MacEachern is at best a Top 6 AHL player. Then when Sundqvist moves up the lineup he does very well because he has players around him, but I'm just saying the PK numbers speak for themselves that is an abysmal job by Connor Brown, and those are isolated numbers that has nothing to do with goaltending. Those are isolated numbers. Sundqvist over the past 2 years has had over 60% in Defensive Zone Start times. 58% the year before. They primarily use his line as a defensive line. Connor Brown doesn't have that great of a line.

Vince Dunn for the most part has had Robert Bortuzzo as his linemate with a mix in of Pietrangelo from time to time. Dunn's RAPM over 4 years has been exceptional. Mike Reilly your own fanbase on this server has called him "the worst defenseman on the team" If that's what you want us to downgrade to for if you want to say Brown is better, a very small upgrade to Brown when the gap between Reilly, and Dunn is that big. Especially when for upgrading at a very small portion we are taking on an extra million dollars that we do not have is preposterous for the Blues. Like I get where you are coming from, but the dynamic of the Blues is built on defense. We don't need Sundqvist to play offense all the time. Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou line has been phenomenal, Hoffman-Thomas-Bozak/Blais line will find it's way. Sanford-O'Reilly-Perron line has been dynamic as well. But what I come back to on this deal, and it was even said by Doug Armstrong you want Vince Dunn it's going to cost you a first round pick.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Borocop</b></div><div>there are defnitely teams that would give up a first for connor brown</div></div>

Well that might be the case for you, but Blues aren't one of them. Blues will not pay a first round pick for a guy who on our squad, might not even have a chance at a third line spot. Because of Tarasenko coming back. Kyrou, Hoffman, Perron, Tarasenko, Sanford all have pretty much overall guaranteed spots. and the other side I'd be sure seeing Bozak on the wing as he was before. Connor Brown in my opinion and in a lot people's opinion is literally Tkachuk, and Pageau's creation. If you put him on the Blues, he won't have the same production unless he gets carried. Blues won't put him on the top line. You say he's better than Sundqvist at PK, well obviously if you look at the graphs I just showed you actually he's pretty abysmal. If you think Connor Brown is worth 3.6M as a third line and getting a first round pick doubtful. Dunn is with all things considered Number 2 Pairing on the Ottawa Senators. Mike Rielly is a cap dump. Sensible guy can say whatever tf he wants both of you can too. You want a first round pick for a guy who on toronto couldn't put those numbers up, but when he gets put with better players he gets those type of numbers. It's easily laughable he wouldn't produce that much in St.Louis. If you put him on with someone not named Tkachuk he definitely won't put up that many points.

Vince Dunn has 3 Goals, 2 Assists in 9 games as a defenseman. Your "First Round Pick, First Line Stud who is claimed to be an Ottawa Hero" has 4 assists in 10 games, oh and did I mention 2 of them were secondary, and 2 of them were created by Tkachuk himself. All Brown did was pass it up the ice, and Tkachuk created his own play out of nothing. Does that sound like an Offensive effective player? Does that sound like a Player the Blues need or want with how many wingers we have? Or is this just I want him so we are just gonna throw random players in that don't make sense for the other team BUUUUUT I want that player and I don't wanna give up anything real good because well Dunn got benched so he has to be crap.

Think. Sensibleguy is now on my ignore list, because he's like the back of my dad's car right now. Full of Sh*t. 43 points doesn't mean jack squat when you have Tkachuk as a linemate for the majority over 9/10s of his Time on ice. If you take away a top player (aka his time in Toronto) he doesn't give the same amount of production. But you are Ottawa fans and you guys are known to overvalue your players. I think you could ask anyone on Capfriendly I think very few teams would pay a first round pick for Connor Brown when Paul Stastny didn't even get a first and he's had better production, and a better track record than both players. Plus he runs the line, not feeds off of his linemates like Connor Brown.

I agree to disagree. Honestly Alfie has some good points, but you don't want to listen to my points, so I think you've kind of lost me. You aren't speaking reason. you are only speaking reason from an Ottawa point of view. You don't watch the Blues which is proven in how you say things. You say Sundqvist plays bottom lines, well that's completely false because all 3 periods. Sundqvist's line started the period right up against the top line of every team we've played except for LA.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 2 at 7:40
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Do you think that I’m acting like C Brown is an elite top liner, or Stone-esque? My whole point is that he’s not, and he’s doing well in a role way above his head. Yeah he played a lot with Tkachuk last year, but Pageau, Tierney, and Paul were his 1st, 3rd, and 4th most common linemates and they’re all 3rd liners on most teams, maybe 2nd on some, and he’s mostly with Tierney and Paul again this year, not much time with Tkachuk. He also scored 20 goals on Toronto’s 3rd line so he produces in that role just fine as well. If anything it’s harder to produce on Ottawa because even though he has one top line calibre linemate sometimes, the rest of the time he’s with 3rd liners and still produces at that higher rate. And he’s relied upon to go up against the best players in the league, not middle six matchups, and he has a porous defense behind him. If you don’t just cherry pick the stats you like and ignore the ones you don’t (opponent quality, possession metrics, etc.) if Sundqvist and Brown swapped teams Brown would likely be more impactful than Sundqvist is in St. Louis and Sundqvist would struggle more than Brown is in Ottawa.

Using hard stats like goals against this season is dumb when STL has only played 3 good teams (and Sundqvist was primarily matched up against the 4th line, sometimes 2nd line for those teams) and bottom-feeding teams for the other games, while Brown has played more minutes per game, and has matched up against Matthews 3 times, Scheifele 3 times, and Draisaitl once. And again, he has no support defensively or in net, whereas the Blues have a good goalie and one of the best D cores. So that was just all around a stupid comparison if you actually deign to look deeper than face value.

You have a point that Sundqvist is more physical sure, but more blocks doesn’t always mean better, Jack Johnson blocks a lot of shots and he’s not good. What that really means is you’re spending a lot of time in your own end and having to play defense, which is supported by his poor possession metrics. If anything that supports my point that Brown is more effective defensively as he can actually break the puck out and go the other way. Plus they have the same dzone start percentage so that’s not the explanation for why Sundqvist is in his own zone more. And again, Brown is playing against far superior competition. Maybe Sundqvist is a little more willing to throw himself in the way of the puck, but that doesn’t always help his team go the other way, which is what you want in order to win at hockey.

Calling Dunn the best player in this deal is just wrong in my opinion, he’s got good stats but he plays a sheltered, offensive role on the bottom pair with PP time. It’s great that he’s effective in that role but that doesn’t make him a top 4 guy when he’s never faced that quality of competition or taken a shift on the PK, so acting like being a good 3rd pair guy makes him a great top 4 guy and thus the best player in the deal is silly.

Brown is better at Sundqvist in a similar role both offensively (produces more generally with 3rd line calibre linemates while facing top line calibre opponents) and defensively (matches up against top line opponents and puts up better possession numbers). Being able to play up and down the lineup isn’t exactly a huge deal, but if you think it is then Brown can play on the 3rd line if you feel like it, and should play there, but he generally plays on the top line, which is better than generally playing on the 3rd line with the ability to sometimes play on the top line. Is this because Ottawa sucks? Obviously, but it doesn’t make it less true. In a lesser role he would only become more effective, and you have insurance in case of injuries. If Sundqvist is your best PK guy, then congratulations, you would get a new best PK guy. Posting a chart for Brown’s game by game stats from last year that shows him generally playing with 3rd liners and then saying “Sundqvist is better at advanced stats” is an odd statement that makes no logical sense and you haven’t backed it up at all. You could have at least posted Sundqvist’s chart for comparison and preferably explained exactly how that gives Sundqvist any sort of edge, because right now you’re just saying things, and that doesn’t make them true.

If we’re talking in terms of the trade proposed I would agree the value favours Ottawa, but it’s not because Dunn and Sundqvist are the two best players in the deal by a mile and the Blues are getting garbage. Brown is better than Sundqvist and Dunn is better than Rielly and they play in similar roles. The discrepancy is that Dunn is likely better in the 3LD PP2 role than Rielly by a larger margin than Brown is better in the 3RW PK1 role than Sundqvist is. If you then take into account that 3RW PK1 (arguably I’m being generous here as well, as even you admit Sundqvist spends time on the 4th line, while Brown is consistently top line in Ottawa despite being a middle six calibre player, he doesn’t play 4th line ever) is a more important role the value tips back in favour of the Blues as they’re getting the better player in that role, but goes back to Ottawa when you realize Dunn is younger and under team control for longer than Rielly. So that’s my thoughts on the trade, but the main thing I’ve been taking issue with is not the value there one way or the other, but the fact that you think Sundqvist is better than Brown when I have yet to find any data that supports this beyond surface level, which is often incorrect and the entire reason the advanced stats community has developed. Nobody cares about +/- or goals against if one player is playing Auston Matthews and the other is facing PE Bellemare, anyone would put up better numbers in those categories in the latter situation. I also take issue with Dunn being labeled a top 4 guy when he’s literally never played in that role and has been sheltered from any difficult matchup his whole career (which obviously a top 4 D would not be).

tldr provide any sort of evidence (preferably explained, not just random comments about swiss army knives or taking the piss out of a stat one guy’s good at without any reasoning) and look beyond the surface when comparing players on a good team vs. bad team. And consider opponent quality ffs lol</div></div>

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWo/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPKThumb/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPKThumb/1920/STL/sundqos94" alt="sundqos94">

These are the main points, and Sundqvist is playing in a fourth line role because he's one of the better checking lines, and Sundqvist doesn't not only play bottom 6 lines, because the fact the Blues start the 4th line on the ice at beginning of the game most of the time show why he doesn't that just a little bit of proof. If you want to go based on his teammates being Paul and Tierney and whoever else in the mix. All of those players are better than barbashev offensively, and in normal circumstances, and probably right now even though stats aren't up to date this year probably better than Clifford offensively too. Don't keep it narrow minded that Sundqvist plays fourth line because that's how bad he is, no Berube loves to spread out talent on lines based on what he wants that line to be overall. Hoffman is on the third line right now. Sanford is on the first line with O'Reilly he primarily played with O'Reilly the past 2 years, I wouldn't put him above a 3rd liner in most cases, honestly Sundqvist night in night out outperforms him. This season Sundqvist has had a 60.9% Defensive Zone Start, so the fact that he's in his zone more time than in the offensive zone doesn't show poor metrics he just starts in his own zone a ton. They constantly put that line up against top lines. You'll see it often. Obviously I know Connor Brown is okay, but you see the stats up top.

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWiThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWoThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

If he's so good why does the team have a more effective offensive rating with him off the ice?

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPKThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPKThumb/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

Why is it that offenses against Connor Brown have a +19 percent on the PK and without him on the PK it's a +9 Percent. No granted the PK of Ottawa is still bad either way, but it's worse with Connor Brown which proves my point. Only thing I will say and I've already spammed enough charts is that Brown has a +16 with on PP effectiveness. The fact that the 4 players that Brown played with the most was Tkachuk, Pageau, Tierney, Paul. And it was actually primarily Paul and Tkachuk as the top 2. Tkachuk is one of the best players on the team, and one of the most effective forwards right now. The top 4 players Sundqvist played with were Alexander Steen, MacKenzie MacEachern, Samuel Blais, Ivan Barbashev. Ivan Barbashev being the highest one and he has some very bad statlines on BOTH ends of the ice. I'm not gonna even get into how bad he is on measurements. Blais and Steen are okay, they aren't the worst but both of them are still below average. MacEachern is at best a Top 6 AHL player. Then when Sundqvist moves up the lineup he does very well because he has players around him, but I'm just saying the PK numbers speak for themselves that is an abysmal job by Connor Brown, and those are isolated numbers that has nothing to do with goaltending. Those are isolated numbers. Sundqvist over the past 2 years has had over 60% in Defensive Zone Start times. 58% the year before. They primarily use his line as a defensive line. Connor Brown doesn't have that great of a line.

Vince Dunn for the most part has had Robert Bortuzzo as his linemate with a mix in of Pietrangelo from time to time. Dunn's RAPM over 4 years has been exceptional. Mike Reilly your own fanbase on this server has called him "the worst defenseman on the team" If that's what you want us to downgrade to for if you want to say Brown is better, a very small upgrade to Brown when the gap between Reilly, and Dunn is that big. Especially when for upgrading at a very small portion we are taking on an extra million dollars that we do not have is preposterous for the Blues. Like I get where you are coming from, but the dynamic of the Blues is built on defense. We don't need Sundqvist to play offense all the time. Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou line has been phenomenal, Hoffman-Thomas-Bozak/Blais line will find it's way. Sanford-O'Reilly-Perron line has been dynamic as well. But what I come back to on this deal, and it was even said by Doug Armstrong you want Vince Dunn it's going to cost you a first round pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 2 at 4:32
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>I'm not saying you or sensibleguy has to agree with me. He put me on his ignore list because I'm not going to accept his homer opinion as an answer. Just because Brown averages first line TOI (which is how JFresh has that it's not based on his play on what line) it's doesn't matter if he plays more TOI or less TOI his stats are his stats. No way around it. It's pretty easy to get 43 points when you are a linemate of Tkachuk. I'm just saying from a standpoint. Sundqvist has been known on the Blues as the swiss army knife. He plays up and down the line and proved it first night against Colorado moved up the line got 2 goals in that game. Brown plays on the third line in Toronto, plays on a crappier team in Ottawa gets a top 6 spot. No way he makes top 6 in our lineup unless Hoffman goes out. If you wanna believe he's better sure, but Brown isn't better than Dunn. Dunn is the best player in this deal by a mile. Rielly is the worst player in this deal by quite a bit. Understand Brown and Sundqvist are very similar if not equal. Difference is Sundqvist steps up on Defense against Top Lines, Connor Brown hasn't ever done that. Another difference is Sundqvist has a better finishing percentage than Brown. Brown has had the same shooting percentages for awhile difference is he went to a new team got a bigger role, more ice time, and more shots that he takes. That's the only thing. If you want to believe that Connor Brown is this all elite player fine if he's so good keep him. We don't want him. We'll keep Dunn. Just agree to disagree leave it at this deal won't happen because both sides disagree. Blues like Dunn, and Sundqvist too much, and Ottawa fans think Connor Brown is the next Mark Stone/Leon Draisaitl. It's not the fact i'm delusional, it's the fact both of you haven't been watching Sundqvist play at all. You didn't watch first night when he took on Colorado and annihilated them. You didn't see how he changed the team when it came to playoffs. You don't see when things aren't working out Sundqvist 95% of the time gets moved to the top line to spark something. It's not the fact that I'm a homer, it's the fact I've watched every single hockey game from night one on NHL66.ir watching majority of the games in detail. Connor Brown wasn't very noticeable at all, but Sundqvist is literally blocking 12 shots in 9 games, and 27 hits in 9 games playing some of his best hockey on our PK. Connor Brown has 2 Primary and 2 Secondary assists has blocked 5 shots this season, and 5 hits this season. You are telling me he is on your checking line??? You want me to replace Sundqvist our best PK forward with Connor Brown? I mean come on 13 Total Goals have been scored against while he's been on the ice 6 of them have been on the Penalty Kill. Sundqvist against top lines 5 total goals have been scored while he's been on the ice and 3 of them were on the Penalty kill. I mean 43 points for a guy who spent the majority of the season with Pageau and Tkachuk. You wanna tell me he has that type of offensive upside when it's because of his teammates? <img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/playerOverview/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

Ivan Barbashev, and Alexander Steen/MacKenzie MacEachern was the teammates that Sundqvist had last year, AND HE WAS STILL OUTPRODUCING BROWN IN ADVANCED STATS. So again like your argument here is like just basic homer crap, that I've already done my research on I was just waiting to come home and get it and finally I have. There isn't a way you can convince me or anyone else otherwise that this is a good deal for the Blues because it's simply not.</div></div>

<a href="/users/csick" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@csick</a> is probably the only who can actually understand this mostly I know <a href="/users/sensibleguy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@sensibleguy</a> isn't gonna want to appreciate this not sure on <a href="/users/Claesson4Norris" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Claesson4Norris</a> will, but yeah this is just how I will directly give you why Blues would say this is a bad deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 2 at 4:29
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Look at that TOI, he’s playing 1st line minutes on a team with with one good defenseman and no goaltending. If he was playing 3rd line minutes (which is where he should be on any other team and would be on STL) he’d be dominating, obviously. And he has the same dzone start % as Sundqvist (plus as mentioned more TOI against tougher opponents) and doesn’t play PP1 so he’s not got a better role offensively. He is relied upon to match up against other teams’s top lines every game. Excuse me if I think Matthews and Scheifele are a tougher matchup than Getzlaf or a Kadri/Bellemare split. Also you’re just showing your ignorance with the corsi comment, that’s an indicator of possession. A good cf% means you can get the puck out of your end and into the opponent’s end which is ultimately the goal of playing defense. Corsi rel is how good you are at producing chances compared to your team. I don’t think Sundqvist is creating much of anything honestly, his corsi numbers are literally the worst on the team for a guy consistently in the lineup. If anything he’s the one getting carried lol, not Brown (another fallacious claim you made earlier). Plus there’s the fact that Brown outproduces him. And if you look at the 3-year trend in your own chart you can see that he’s actually improved since coming to Ottawa lol. You can like Sundqvist and think he’s a useful player, but he’s not better than Brown. The only thing he’s really got going for him in this comparison is he can play centre, although he’s not even good at faceoffs.</div></div>

I'm not saying you or sensibleguy has to agree with me. He put me on his ignore list because I'm not going to accept his homer opinion as an answer. Just because Brown averages first line TOI (which is how JFresh has that it's not based on his play on what line) it's doesn't matter if he plays more TOI or less TOI his stats are his stats. No way around it. It's pretty easy to get 43 points when you are a linemate of Tkachuk. I'm just saying from a standpoint. Sundqvist has been known on the Blues as the swiss army knife. He plays up and down the line and proved it first night against Colorado moved up the line got 2 goals in that game. Brown plays on the third line in Toronto, plays on a crappier team in Ottawa gets a top 6 spot. No way he makes top 6 in our lineup unless Hoffman goes out. If you wanna believe he's better sure, but Brown isn't better than Dunn. Dunn is the best player in this deal by a mile. Rielly is the worst player in this deal by quite a bit. Understand Brown and Sundqvist are very similar if not equal. Difference is Sundqvist steps up on Defense against Top Lines, Connor Brown hasn't ever done that. Another difference is Sundqvist has a better finishing percentage than Brown. Brown has had the same shooting percentages for awhile difference is he went to a new team got a bigger role, more ice time, and more shots that he takes. That's the only thing. If you want to believe that Connor Brown is this all elite player fine if he's so good keep him. We don't want him. We'll keep Dunn. Just agree to disagree leave it at this deal won't happen because both sides disagree. Blues like Dunn, and Sundqvist too much, and Ottawa fans think Connor Brown is the next Mark Stone/Leon Draisaitl. It's not the fact i'm delusional, it's the fact both of you haven't been watching Sundqvist play at all. You didn't watch first night when he took on Colorado and annihilated them. You didn't see how he changed the team when it came to playoffs. You don't see when things aren't working out Sundqvist 95% of the time gets moved to the top line to spark something. It's not the fact that I'm a homer, it's the fact I've watched every single hockey game from night one on NHL66.ir watching majority of the games in detail. Connor Brown wasn't very noticeable at all, but Sundqvist is literally blocking 12 shots in 9 games, and 27 hits in 9 games playing some of his best hockey on our PK. Connor Brown has 2 Primary and 2 Secondary assists has blocked 5 shots this season, and 5 hits this season. You are telling me he is on your checking line??? You want me to replace Sundqvist our best PK forward with Connor Brown? I mean come on 13 Total Goals have been scored against while he's been on the ice 6 of them have been on the Penalty Kill. Sundqvist against top lines 5 total goals have been scored while he's been on the ice and 3 of them were on the Penalty kill. I mean 43 points for a guy who spent the majority of the season with Pageau and Tkachuk. You wanna tell me he has that type of offensive upside when it's because of his teammates? <img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/playerOverview/1920/OTT/brownco94" alt="brownco94">

Ivan Barbashev, and Alexander Steen/MacKenzie MacEachern was the teammates that Sundqvist had last year, AND HE WAS STILL OUTPRODUCING BROWN IN ADVANCED STATS. So again like your argument here is like just basic homer crap, that I've already done my research on I was just waiting to come home and get it and finally I have. There isn't a way you can convince me or anyone else otherwise that this is a good deal for the Blues because it's simply not.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 2 at 3:40
Thread: St Louis trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Look at that TOI, he’s playing 1st line minutes on a team with with one good defenseman and no goaltending. If he was playing 3rd line minutes (which is where he should be on any other team and would be on STL) he’d be dominating, obviously. And he has the same dzone start % as Sundqvist (plus as mentioned more TOI against tougher opponents) and doesn’t play PP1 so he’s not got a better role offensively. He is relied upon to match up against other teams’s top lines every game. Excuse me if I think Matthews and Scheifele are a tougher matchup than Getzlaf or a Kadri/Bellemare split. Also you’re just showing your ignorance with the corsi comment, that’s an indicator of possession. A good cf% means you can get the puck out of your end and into the opponent’s end which is ultimately the goal of playing defense. Corsi rel is how good you are at producing chances compared to your team. I don’t think Sundqvist is creating much of anything honestly, his corsi numbers are literally the worst on the team for a guy consistently in the lineup. If anything he’s the one getting carried lol, not Brown (another fallacious claim you made earlier). Plus there’s the fact that Brown outproduces him. And if you look at the 3-year trend in your own chart you can see that he’s actually improved since coming to Ottawa lol. You can like Sundqvist and think he’s a useful player, but he’s not better than Brown. The only thing he’s really got going for him in this comparison is he can play centre, although he’s not even good at faceoffs.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Look at that TOI, he’s playing 1st line minutes on a team with with one good defenseman and no goaltending. If he was playing 3rd line minutes (which is where he should be on any other team and would be on STL) he’d be dominating, obviously. And he has the same dzone start % as Sundqvist (plus as mentioned more TOI against tougher opponents) and doesn’t play PP1 so he’s not got a better role offensively. He is relied upon to match up against other teams’s top lines every game. Excuse me if I think Matthews and Scheifele are a tougher matchup than Getzlaf or a Kadri/Bellemare split. Also you’re just showing your ignorance with the corsi comment, that’s an indicator of possession. A good cf% means you can get the puck out of your end and into the opponent’s end which is ultimately the goal of playing defense. Corsi rel is how good you are at producing chances compared to your team. I don’t think Sundqvist is creating much of anything honestly, his corsi numbers are literally the worst on the team for a guy consistently in the lineup. If anything he’s the one getting carried lol, not Brown (another fallacious claim you made earlier). Plus there’s the fact that Brown outproduces him. And if you look at the 3-year trend in your own chart you can see that he’s actually improved since coming to Ottawa lol. You can like Sundqvist and think he’s a useful player, but he’s not better than Brown. The only thing he’s really got going for him in this comparison is he can play centre, although he’s not even good at faceoffs.</div></div>
First Line Time On Ice on a ****ty team.