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Beggars_be_Leaf
Auston powers us
Member Since
Jun. 19, 2022
Forum Posts
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2022 at 1:31 p.m.
Thread:
Anaheim Avalanche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dallas_fan34</b></div><div>i know this is a joke but why would you sign strum to a $2,000,000 contract</div></div>
Forwards generally get paid $100,000 per point, especially UFAs in their prime years - mid to late 20s. He’s a career 1/3 of a point per game, which might translate into potential for about 25 points for a full season.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 30, 2022 at 8:43 a.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>Take a look at games played for the top point scorers. We were actually in the top half of the League in goals for this year. #2 among teams that missed the playoffs (behind only Vegas).</div></div>
Yeah, for skaters in their twenties, your guys do miss a lot of games during the season. Maybe instead of a better winger, the Blue Jackets should get a better physio.
Also a very unusual profile of where your scoring comes from . Above average from the bottom six, and lots of points from the D.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 29, 2022 at 4:11 p.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>Was the article suggesting signing them all?
Even if you went with those values for signings, you could just subtract mamin, Kerfoot, and Rodrigues for Nylander and Robertson, and probably keep Engvall over a ufa if he is signing for a similar amount.
Braun should be coming in as the 7th D so perhaps they pay him closer to 1m, and some of that would go to more money for Husso at least 3.5m if not in the low 4s. You probably then don't want Fleury (likely only signs for a year regardless of amount or location, save Pittsburgh) unless he is taking a discount that puts him in the 2s.
Kubalik at 2.5 would have to be a one or two year contract. Also, can't be signing all these role pieces to 2 years, the bottom 6 ufas who are older can probably be signed for a year at those values. If helm were to take 1m then two years.
The roster make up would then look like
Line 2: Kubalik-Tavares-Nylander
Line 3: Engvall(Wood) -Kampf- Robertson (could swap for Kuba)
Line 4: Wood (Cogliano) - Helm - Auston-Reese
Sandin in the top 6 somewhere</div></div>
Great suggestions. The article was just a list of top ten free agent targets, but i turned this ACGM into a “what if they signed them all.” I think seven of the top ten were forwards, and even with my unrealistically low estimates for UFA salaries, it requires Holl and Nylander to go, and doesn’t leave salary cap room for Engval and Kase. But those three subtractions means there are seven forward positions to fill.
Your alternate scenario also gives a good look at what signing most of those UFAs in the bottom six looks like, and even better if it allows more salary cap to be spent on goal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 29, 2022 at 3:55 p.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TampaBayLightning22</b></div><div>Maxim Mamin just signed with the KHL, Moscow Dynamo So he's not an option.
Zero chance that you're getting both MAF/Husso that cheaply</div></div>
Yeah, i think there’s about four of five of these salary figures i used which are a bit low. Of course, an alternate in net could be Campbell for $5M and anyone else they could get for $1M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 29, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BUFF36</b></div><div>Sabres aren't doing that for a 4th especially in 2yrs. Maybe since Columbus is giving you there 1st, you keep the 4th and give Buffalo your 1st this year</div></div>
I think the cost of buying out Mrazek is less painful to the Leafs than giving up a first. Someone pointed out one of the UFAs on this list has already signed with the KHL, so for this years cap hit for the buyout, the Leafs could just spend most of the season with one less healthy scratch in the lineup.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 29, 2022 at 3:42 p.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Sabres made their cap move and have no reason to help Toronto</div></div>
Could be. I haven’t looked at it closely, but i thought Buffalo could resign or replace all of their UFAs and still be short of the cap floor. Assuming they don’t add any high cost free agents at this point, as they have such a talented young roster. They are going to be quite the team in 2-3 years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 29, 2022 at 3:37 p.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>Columbus says no. No room for wings (no, not even Nylander), no interest in scraps, and they simply need the pick more.</div></div>
Fair enough argument, but Columbus needs offence probably most in the league. Your top point getter last season - 62 points?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 29, 2022 at 3:33 p.m.
Thread:
the Athletic article on suggested UFAs and RFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>You really think a 115pt regular season club brings in 10 new players into the starting lineup?</div></div>
No, i was just looking to see what kind of lineup that could build and at what cost. It’s not realistic, and to fill all these spots required me to use unrealistically low cap hits for a few of the new signings, but then 98% of the ACGM posts i have seen aren’t realistic either
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2022 at 2:54 p.m.
Thread:
Saving for a starting goalie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>why would you over pay for a middling back up instead of a proven starter then?</div></div>
Well, i have Kuemper who i think is the best UFA goalie with the maximum the Leafs can give him. If the Avalanche really love him, I don’t know if even $6.5 million would tempt him over to the blue and white, never mind what five or six other teams will be willing to offer top UFA starters next month. As for overpaying for a number one goalie in a trade, I cant see many that might available. For Gibson, there is little incentive for the Ducks to give him up, so overpaying would probably mean three big assets - first round picks/top prospects. For an old guy coming off a meh season. Bobrovsky with salary retention? I can’t see Florida supplying a divisional opponent their most important missing piece of the puzzle. Murray who cant even get the starters job in Ottawa?
Varlamov might be the only other credible starter that could be acquired by trade, but i already did an ACGM with that. This one was to look at covering this need another way - free agency.
Do you know of any other starting goalies available in that second highest tier to be had for a cost less than two Leafs first round picks or one of their core four?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2022 at 2:26 p.m.
Thread:
Saving for a starting goalie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lambchopz</b></div><div>At the time Mrazek was seen as a very capable tandem goalie</div></div>
Sure, but even at the time I didn’t like the terms of that deal. Dubas knew how squeezed he would be to pay Campbell or a replacement once Campbell became a UFA, that is to say year two and three for Mrazek. That deal only made sense if they thought Mrazek would be a clear number one.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.
Thread:
Saving for a starting goalie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>two first rounders and a 4th defender to get a meh backup and a bottom 6 forward? stolarz is worth like a 3rd at deadline prices and rassmussen a 4th. The leafs could get value for holl and just buy mrazek out and then the late pick value for those players than give up 1st rounders
not to mention, yikes that's way too much for kuemper</div></div>
The greatest problem the Leafs have right now is to get not one but two goalies, with limited cap space and a two year window when they know they still have their core four. The value to the leafs for two goalies is higher than just about any other team. They need most of their current cap space to get a starter - with about six teams looking for a starter and only three or four of that calibre on the market, none of those six teams is guaranteed to get one, so the three or four teams that are successful will have to overpay.
I don’t have an accurate figure but I speculate the number of teams looking for a good backup at a cost near league minimum is probably 10-15. There are a few free agent possibilities for this - Holtby, Comrie, DeSmith, but, just like trying to sign a free agent starter (but with worse odds), most teams will be getting a lot worse than they hope for as a backup. The Leafs should overpay if needed to get one by trade. Every extra dollar the Leafs pay for a backup ratchets down their chance of getting a good starter, as does the 1.5 million they would pay to buy out Mrazek. So this ACGM scenario isn’t just to give up a couple of firsts for a solid backup and a useful bottom six forward, its to get those pieces at the lowest possible cost while jettisoning Mrazek’s salary.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2022 at 4:58 a.m.
Thread:
Saving for a starting goalie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockey_Hippy</b></div><div>Wouldn't be my choice of trading partners either given that they've moved on from Mrazek once already,</div></div>
Detroit aren’t in a position to contend yet, but they have oodles of cap space and need goaltending still. If they sign a better starting goaltender in addition, they have enough cap room to buy out Mrazek.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2022 at 4:53 a.m.
Thread:
Saving for a starting goalie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>A 1st rounder for stolarz is bananas</div></div>
$11M+ for Mrazek as a backup was bananas, but Dubas still did it
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 24, 2022 at 2:16 p.m.
Thread:
Two UFA goalies and bottom six replacements
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Like your "Auston powers us"</div></div>
MVP, MVP…
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 23, 2022 at 7:19 a.m.
Thread:
Two UFA goalies and bottom six replacements
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Getting rid of 3.8m Mrzarek ain't that easy. Terrible signings that won't help the Leafs. An unworkable 21 man roster.</div></div>
Yeah, the point i was making with this roster is to see how limited the Leafs options would be if they don’t make any other trades from their current lineup or give up their remaining high draft picks and few prospects.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 23, 2022 at 7:13 a.m.
Thread:
Two UFA goalies and bottom six replacements
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FantasySens</b></div><div>The question i have for leafs fans is how enticing are Sandin and Lily to other teams in terms of offer sheets? Anything between 2.1 and 4.2 mil only requires a 2nd rd pick as compensation. That;s nothing for what I believe could be top 4 dmen in the league in a year.</div></div>
That’s a scary thought, as matching those numbers would entirely wreck our chance to get good value, bottom six forwards, without trading away some other player(s) on the roster.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 23, 2022 at 7:11 a.m.
Thread:
Two UFA goalies and bottom six replacements
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>Fairly realistic run, but I have a few thoughts:
-The consensus around here is Campbell for $4.25ish (Depending on term). You know what you've got in Campbell, vs. a MAJOR gamble in Husso. Guy is 27 and played over 40 games once in his career before this year (And that was in the AHL). Buyer friggin' beware.
-I don't think you need to pay DeSmith $2 mil. He's a 30 year old slightly above average backup. Not a bad target as a backup though.
-Meh to the bottom 6 signings...I guess it could go either way, but there's just about zero secondary scoring there, which hurts comes playoff time.
-I *think* it costs a 2nd to move Mrazek, but not a huge issue.
-You can only spend $82.28 mil this year, and a 21 man roster isn't really the way to go.
Kudos for 1)Not trading Muzzin, 2)Not dumping Holl, 3)Not sending Kerfoot to a non-contender for picks. A solid effort IMO.</div></div>
Thanks for the comments. I suppose the price Campbell ultimately gets comes down to how hard his agent bargains, and how crazy other GMs who are desperate for goaltending this offseason act. Like last year, i was surprised Dubas gave Mrazek what he did. Campbell is probably my second favourite option, after Kuemper, but I think there is a chance soup gets five million from someone else.
For me, this lineup was to illustrate what it looks like when you don’t trade away Muzzin, Holl Kerfoot or Nylander and still pay full price for goaltending (i.e. don’t imagine you can get Gibson or Varlamov with salary retained by giving up all our best picks and prospects). In that case, it leave them with an anaemic bottom six.
I really wonder what they will do with Sandin this year if they intend to keep Muzzin as well. My approach in this ACGM was to have Sandin as a fourth left hand D, and expect that he gives Gio and Morgan lots of nights off and replaces Muzzin when the inevitable injuries take him out of action.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m.
Thread:
Bitter Buds
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Ottawa is not trading Brown for futures now.
Maybe at the deadline IF :
- they don't plan to extend him
- they are "out of it"
- depending on who else they have acquired in the offseason
- depending on who else "emerged"
They will be able to get better quality pieces at the deadline so no point doing that. It doesn't accomplish anything</div></div>
Fair point - Ottawa hold all the cards, they are under no pressure to move him until TDL
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 9:31 p.m.
Thread:
Cancel the Shanaplan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jaok3</b></div><div>Don't know why people keep giving Engvall a contract and don' trade him? He plays a foot smaller than he is and is exactly the type of role player the leafs need to get rid of.</div></div>
we are hoping he has finally become a reliable half a point per game bottom six forward. Plus, he kills penalties, and we need these qualities more than ever now Ilya has priced himself out of town. but yes, he would get double the salary if he learned how to throw a check, but in that case, we couldn't afford him either.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 7:31 p.m.
Thread:
next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GenXHockey</b></div><div>Sorry but Toronto wouldn't give up 3rd.... Or anything for that matter.</div></div>
Funny thing about Brossoit’s stats, he alternates yearly between bad and good. 22-23 he is on schedule to give Vezina quality performance in 20 starts.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 6:34 p.m.
Thread:
JT times two and PK for the PP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>And I think that Muzzin is effectively untradeable due to his NMC -- I'd be willing to bet he loves playing at home and wouldn't waive it to go anywhere else, especially a non-contender, which really limits the field.
Welcome to CapFriendly, by the way!</div></div>
Agreed, and thanks. He’s also supposedly super popular with teammates, so another downside to trading him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread:
JT times two and PK for the PP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>One year of Stolarz is worth more to us than one year of Kerfoot. For one thing, we'd just have to go outside the organization to replace Stolarz, and Kerfoot is more useful to a contender. For another, we might want to re-sign Stolarz after this season, which would be effectively impossible if we trade him away.</div></div>
I only came across him because of all of the speculation about Gibson being traded. Stolarz seems like the perfect backup for a team up against the cap.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 6:23 p.m.
Thread:
JT times two and PK for the PP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>odyssey</b></div><div>only thing i would change is trading muzzin instead of sandin.
muzzin to a contending team for picks gives you more space and then you can play the better, healthier player in sandin
this team is great btw</div></div>
I have a suspicion that Muzzin would have a limited trade value - high cap hit plus age and concussion history, would love to have that cap space back though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 9:40 a.m.
Thread:
Cancel the Shanaplan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>finny690</b></div><div>Congrats for writing a Plan that is actually worth reading!
I do think Matthews could actually fetch a bit more
and the Devils trade is a bit rich in its return.</div></div>
>Fair enough, thing about the Devil’s roster players, you could remove them from the trade and use their cap space instead and still be nearly as well off, once you factor in the increases they will get starting 2023.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 9:36 a.m.
Thread:
Cancel the Shanaplan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jedihonesy</b></div><div>Do you actually think Matthews is worth that?</div></div>
It’s essentially Matthews for five first round choices, which is just a bit better than the four firsts due in compensation for signing an RFA offer sheet for 12 M +
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