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Bigpapi

Grant
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Mar. 9, 2022
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2022 at 4:56 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2022 at 4:51 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 28, 2022 at 2:09 a.m.
Thread: solid team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bigpapi</b></div><div>Holy… I’d wish they draft miroschichenko or nazar if available but I think rutger might be the way to go in all likelyness</div></div>

Let’s break this down into stats. Let’s assign a percentage value that each of the 5 players in question (Mateychuk, miroshnichenko, yurov, Nazar, and lambert) are available at 21. I am not going to actually come up with a value for each, but just for the sake of the exercise let’s assume the average of these 5 percentage values (the chance of each player being available) is 25%, so this means the chance of any one of these players being available is 25%. This also means that chance of anyone player being already taken is 75%. BUT this latter number is the more important, because we only want one of the 5. We want to find the percentage odds for one of them being available, because it doesn’t matter which all 5 would be tremendous value at 21. So since there is a 75% that any one player is already taken, and we want to find the odds of only one being available ( ie the odds of not all of them being taken), we can do 0.75^5 (or 0.75X0.75X0.75X0.75X0.75). This value is the chance that all the 5 players are already taken and it is equal to 0.2373046875. Once we round it and turn it to a percent this is 24%. So there is a 24% chance of them all being gone, and a 76% chance on at least one of them being available.

Assuming the average probablility of any one of Nazar, Mateychuk, miroshnichenko, yurov, or lambert being available is 25%, I really don’t hate the 76% chance that we land one of them.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 13, 2022 at 10:59 a.m.