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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7 at 12:16 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29 at 2:49 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 7:42 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Don't pay for EH so using NST's on-ice numbers - Sergachev in 2019-20 had a higher xG%, was better at suppressing high danger chances and goals, and generally Tampa was better at controlling play while he was on the ice - in fact, he was better in all 3 of his first 3 NHL seasons at that than Miller has been. I understand that RAPM tries to cut out some noise from the affect teammates and QoC can have between two players, but sorry, I'm already subscribing to too many sports sites to add another!

Beyond that, though - I think it gets into splitting hair territories, because we can sit here all day arguing over which analytics provide a better picture of a player and it would be ignoring the simple fact that NHL GMs are loathe to set precedents when it comes to RFA players - while I won't disagree that in a completely open market Miller could get $5-6M AAV, there's no way in hell Chris Drury is going to go that far above and beyond that most recent highwater mark for an RFA defenseman, especially not in a flat cap world. What's the worst that'll happen to him, another team actually getting off their ass and offer sheeting someone?</div></div>

Honestly yeah man I think one of Miller or Laf is ripe for the picking in terms of an O/S. Will it happen? Probably not. More than likely not. But a team like MTL has the means/motive to go after a guy like Laf or Miller (space, Gorton drafted them, fills a need). Will it happen, probably not, but it wouldn’t shock me if it did
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 4:58 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>there's a ton of numbers that disagree with you buddy. I think Key's a great player, for sure, I just think your valuation on him is completely out of line with how the NHL works.

to expand on the Sergachev comp: Mikhail had played 3 full NHL seasons by the time he signed his extension, scoring 40, 32, &amp; 34 points in them. He added in another 17 over 46 playoff games, and, again, played nearly 23 minutes a night on the Lightning team that won the Cup in 2019-20. He signed a 3x$4.8M bridge deal entering his age-22 season.

Miller scored a combined 32 points over 135 GP in his first 2 NHL seasons before getting 41 (so far) this year. He's got 7 points in 20 playoff GP to date, and while he still may win a Cup in his ELC, I think Boston and Carolina are going to make it incredibly difficult to do that. But even if he does, he'll have worse offensive production paired with worse defensive/possession numbers than Sergachev had during his ELC, while also being a year older at the time he signs his extension.

So seeing as the cap is more or less in the same place it was prior to the 2020-21 season when Sergachev signed his bridge deal, do you have any other reasons as to why Miller would sign for a higher AAV, higher than any bridge contract for a defenseman in recent memory? Would love to hear it.</div></div>

I don’t care about points. Points (especially as a defenseman) are a product of opportunity, playing time, and who you’re surrounded by. Miller’s on pace to put up 45ish? This season, which IMO is his first full season playing big minutes (I know he played a ton in the playoff run).

Defense possession numbers- what are you looking at? Genuinely curious. I’m using EH’s RAPM models and they’re not telling the same story.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 4:45 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Onlyfairtrades1</b></div><div>50% of NJ smells like a Turkey farm mid summer, 45% is paved strip centers, and 5% is habitable. NYC makes up a very tiny portion of NY State, in case you didn't know. And Newark and Camden are pure paradise.</div></div>

“5% of the state is habitable”

NJ is the most densely populated state in America, so I see why you’d see that. But it’s literally all habitable. I live in Montclair. I’ve lived in Warren, Morris, and Camden counties. Right now I can be in the city in 30 mins, the beach in an hour, or hiking on the Appalachian Trail 50 mins. Can’t beat it.

“Newark and Camden are pure paradise”

Albany? Schenectady? How about Utica or Syracuse? Let’s not act like NY State is a walk in the park either. Half of it is farmland and the other half are rundown cities where all main employers have moved out. I do enjoy the finger lakes though I have a cottage up there.

“NYC makes up a very tiny portion of NY State”

Geographically, sure. But….

NYC’s population - 8.5M (2021)
NY State population - 19.8M (2021)

So roughly 43% of the states population lives in the city. Doesn’t sound like a tiny bit to me! Maybe so many people live there because the rest of the state (outside of Orange/Westchester County) is utter dog****, with out of date infrastructure and minimal jobs. Tell me, what state is only 5% habitable again?

But tell me how NY is so much better. You’re taxed slightly less, yet your school system (which has utterly failed you) is ranked significantly lower (16th nationally) than NJ (1st). Your roads stink. The city can barely balance a budget. But yeah you guys are the best. Typical New Yorker nonsense.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 3:47 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 12:31 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 12:19 p.m.