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Book_Hockey

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Sep. 12, 2019
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New Jersey Devils
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7 at 12:16 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29 at 2:49 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 7:42 p.m.
Thread: Would not be the end of the world
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Don't pay for EH so using NST's on-ice numbers - Sergachev in 2019-20 had a higher xG%, was better at suppressing high danger chances and goals, and generally Tampa was better at controlling play while he was on the ice - in fact, he was better in all 3 of his first 3 NHL seasons at that than Miller has been. I understand that RAPM tries to cut out some noise from the affect teammates and QoC can have between two players, but sorry, I'm already subscribing to too many sports sites to add another!

Beyond that, though - I think it gets into splitting hair territories, because we can sit here all day arguing over which analytics provide a better picture of a player and it would be ignoring the simple fact that NHL GMs are loathe to set precedents when it comes to RFA players - while I won't disagree that in a completely open market Miller could get $5-6M AAV, there's no way in hell Chris Drury is going to go that far above and beyond that most recent highwater mark for an RFA defenseman, especially not in a flat cap world. What's the worst that'll happen to him, another team actually getting off their ass and offer sheeting someone?</div></div>

Honestly yeah man I think one of Miller or Laf is ripe for the picking in terms of an O/S. Will it happen? Probably not. More than likely not. But a team like MTL has the means/motive to go after a guy like Laf or Miller (space, Gorton drafted them, fills a need). Will it happen, probably not, but it wouldn’t shock me if it did
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 4:58 p.m.
Thread: Would not be the end of the world
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>there's a ton of numbers that disagree with you buddy. I think Key's a great player, for sure, I just think your valuation on him is completely out of line with how the NHL works.

to expand on the Sergachev comp: Mikhail had played 3 full NHL seasons by the time he signed his extension, scoring 40, 32, &amp; 34 points in them. He added in another 17 over 46 playoff games, and, again, played nearly 23 minutes a night on the Lightning team that won the Cup in 2019-20. He signed a 3x$4.8M bridge deal entering his age-22 season.

Miller scored a combined 32 points over 135 GP in his first 2 NHL seasons before getting 41 (so far) this year. He's got 7 points in 20 playoff GP to date, and while he still may win a Cup in his ELC, I think Boston and Carolina are going to make it incredibly difficult to do that. But even if he does, he'll have worse offensive production paired with worse defensive/possession numbers than Sergachev had during his ELC, while also being a year older at the time he signs his extension.

So seeing as the cap is more or less in the same place it was prior to the 2020-21 season when Sergachev signed his bridge deal, do you have any other reasons as to why Miller would sign for a higher AAV, higher than any bridge contract for a defenseman in recent memory? Would love to hear it.</div></div>

I don’t care about points. Points (especially as a defenseman) are a product of opportunity, playing time, and who you’re surrounded by. Miller’s on pace to put up 45ish? This season, which IMO is his first full season playing big minutes (I know he played a ton in the playoff run).

Defense possession numbers- what are you looking at? Genuinely curious. I’m using EH’s RAPM models and they’re not telling the same story.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 4:45 p.m.
Thread: trying to keep everyone no kane or vladdy but it will have to do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Onlyfairtrades1</b></div><div>50% of NJ smells like a Turkey farm mid summer, 45% is paved strip centers, and 5% is habitable. NYC makes up a very tiny portion of NY State, in case you didn't know. And Newark and Camden are pure paradise.</div></div>

“5% of the state is habitable”

NJ is the most densely populated state in America, so I see why you’d see that. But it’s literally all habitable. I live in Montclair. I’ve lived in Warren, Morris, and Camden counties. Right now I can be in the city in 30 mins, the beach in an hour, or hiking on the Appalachian Trail 50 mins. Can’t beat it.

“Newark and Camden are pure paradise”

Albany? Schenectady? How about Utica or Syracuse? Let’s not act like NY State is a walk in the park either. Half of it is farmland and the other half are rundown cities where all main employers have moved out. I do enjoy the finger lakes though I have a cottage up there.

“NYC makes up a very tiny portion of NY State”

Geographically, sure. But….

NYC’s population - 8.5M (2021)
NY State population - 19.8M (2021)

So roughly 43% of the states population lives in the city. Doesn’t sound like a tiny bit to me! Maybe so many people live there because the rest of the state (outside of Orange/Westchester County) is utter dog****, with out of date infrastructure and minimal jobs. Tell me, what state is only 5% habitable again?

But tell me how NY is so much better. You’re taxed slightly less, yet your school system (which has utterly failed you) is ranked significantly lower (16th nationally) than NJ (1st). Your roads stink. The city can barely balance a budget. But yeah you guys are the best. Typical New Yorker nonsense.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread: Would not be the end of the world
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Miller has a -3.5 defensive GSVA this year while Dobson had a 5.9 last year. And Miller this year has nearly the same PP opportunity that Dobson did last year (1:55 vs. Dobson's 2:37.) Add in the fact that RHD are currently valued slightly higher than LHD like Miller and you've got a very strong contract comp.

The numbers you're throwing around for a bridge deal are unprecedented, and that alone means they're extremely unlikely to happen. Mikhail Sergachev played nearly 23 playoff minutes a night for a Cup winner and *his* bridge deal only came in at a $4.8M AAV - why would Miller warrant a bigger contract than him?</div></div>

Because he’s better than any of the players that you’ve mentioned
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread: trying to keep everyone no kane or vladdy but it will have to do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Onlyfairtrades1</b></div><div>You don't know Gorton obviously or you're delusional. He could have issued plenty of offer sheets as the Ranger GM when he tore the team down and had tons of cap space, but he didn't because he doesn't believe in them, so know who you are talking about before you speak. But, let's just see what happens. If the Habs offersheet Laffy, i will come on here and say I am delusional, but if they don't will you do that?</div></div>

Literally agreed with you in my last post Laf would probably sign a two year deal but go off man. You know Gorton better than everyone, and everyone who disagrees with what you say is delusional and a fool. Because the Habs even entertaining the thought of filling a need with a former number 1 OA pick for the price of a second rounder is bad business and a crazy thought
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread: trying to keep everyone no kane or vladdy but it will have to do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Onlyfairtrades1</b></div><div>You're nuts if you think Gorton is going to approve an offer sheet for any player. Guaranteed there will be no offer sheet and Laffy signs a 2 year bridge deal with the Rangers.</div></div>

I think you’re nuts for suggesting Gorton wouldn’t approve O/S’ing a kid he drafted and plays for the team that screwed him out of reaping the benefits of the rebuild he constructed. If you’re Gorton, why wouldn’t you do that? You get a premium young asset that fills an area of need for a second rounder. If the rangers match, fine, but you made a move to improve your team at a minimal cost.

I don’t doubt he signs a two year deal. That’s probably what will happen, but the notion that an O/S is silly to Ranger fans is delusional