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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 29, 2023 at 9:05 a.m.
Thread: small upgrades
TBH I would not trade Olofsson for Boeser one for one, much less add Krebs.
Neither Brock nor victor are noted for their defense, they get paid for their goal scoring capabiities.
Over the last four seasons Boeser has played 583:45 more minutes than Olofsson but has one less goal (80 v Olofsson's 81).
Two seasons since they both signed new contracts each Boeser goal cost $309,302 while each Olofsson goal cost $197,917.
Last season Brock played over 60% of the time with one of Miller, Horvat or Petterson as his line mate.
Last season Victor played about 10% of the time with our top two centers Cozens or Thompson.
Last season he had more goals than DeBrincat and only 22 forwards scored at at faster rate than his 1.6 goals/60.
The last two games of the season he played with Girgensons and Okposo yet netted two goals, keep him on that line and our fouth line may exceed 40 goals next year.
I sure hope Karmanos does not give Victor away for a third as many of the Sabre ACGM's often suggest.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2023 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: Looking at them
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lights</b></div><div>Yeah definitely a big Krebs fan, just wasn't sure if the Sabres would keep Mittelstadt or Krebs</div></div> It would be very unlikely that the Sabre would be trading Krebs who will be cost controlled for the next 3 years or more.
Newhook (63 pts over the past TWO seasons of 153 games) certainly should have set the market for Casey Mittelstadt (59 pts last season and 100 pts over his last 163 games).
The Sabrea are in a most fortunate situation.
They have a fistfull of prospects who could be better than the players they have in the NHL.
It would be likely that <strong>Casey</strong> would be traded over Krebs, not because Krebs is better, but rather Casey should return a significant return, much more than Newhook (31st and 37th OA).

While most Sabre ACGM's will disagree with me, <strong>Olofsson</strong> should return more than a mere third.
His cap hit is half, had more goals than DeBrincat last year while playing 500 fewer minutes, and did not have Pinto and Batherson as his primary line mates.
Victor has more goals over the past four seasons than Boeser and has a lower cap hit of nearly $2,000,000.
He will most likely be traded not because he is a one trick pony (who does that trick really well), but rather Savoie, Kulich, Ostlund and Benson combined cap will be less than his this year.

I see too many Sabre ACGM's diminish the value of his scoring prowess and over look that DeBrincat had a much worse +/- than his.
ONLY 23 NHL forwards scored faster than his 1.6 goals/60 min, that is a really good pony trick.
I would not suggest that he would return equal to Alex, but certainly significantly more than a third.

I could see an NHL GM viewing Casey and Victor as two thirds of a second line in exchange for a top 4 RHD.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2023 at 10:39 a.m.
Thread: notha1
<a href="/users/OldNYIfan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@OldNYIfan</a>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>Hard pass
You failed to pay for both Gibson and then also the retention</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>This ACGM isn’t mine- idc about the proposal
Gibson is a 30year old goalie coming off FOUR poor seasons in a row, with a high Cap hit
So AGAIN, what do u Ducks fans really think you’re gonna get for him???</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>A NHL caliber backup
A prospect/young player of either the following flavors' scoring winger with realistic 2nd line potential or defensive RD with realistic 2nd pairing potential
A 24 conditional 1st (make 2nd or 3rd round, Gibson plays over 50% games, slides to 2nd if not met)
Some toss in to make money work, if needed.</div></div> Let' pose a different question.
What is the value of a 30 yo GK who over the past four seasons has 0.902 SV% (52nd) and 3.32 GAA (68th)?
Whose best season during that four year period was four ago recording 3.00 GAA 20 W 26 L 5 T 0.904 SV%?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2023 at 9:30 a.m.
Thread: Simple
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Let's agree to disagree.
Will Quinn's be missed this season? Of course he will!
Can most of his production be compensated by other players? Most likely as he only scored 3 more goals than Okposo and 4 more than Girgensons!
Was he a primary candidate to have breakout season? Absolutely as his 14 g and 37 pts was nearly identical to Cozen's first full year 13 g and 38 pts.
TBH IMO Peterka, Power, Jokiharju and <strong>Levi</strong> will also significantly up grade their game.
Injuries greatly impacted Dahlin, Jokiharju and Thompson and we have not seen the best of them either.
Currently most sport pundits put them as a bubble playoff team.
They will reach 100 pts and easily make the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2023 at 9:10 a.m.
Thread: Exchanges at a glance
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Knuckl3s</b></div><div>I don't see the word "thin" in your previous post</div></div> I guess because I am a poor speller when <a href="/users/AntiAnalytics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AntiAnalytics</a> misstyped: "LAST YEAR, when we were <strong>then</strong> on defense" my mind automatically read <strong>"thin."</strong>
But more to the point, your trade implies Buffalo does not want Petry when you added a second.
In my first responce
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>I didn’t dodge the question
We were thin on defense, pointed that out in the VERY 1st sentence of my reply
<strong>You did which what I read, but you unfortunately misspelled "thin as then", LOL! :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh </strong>
Nice try though ‘nucker</div></div>
As I said earlier, Buffalo would not make this trade as they would not want to add to their cap.
But unless there is another trade that Pittsburgh has in mind, they should not make this trade either.
Petry v Lyubushkin hit/60, blk/60, TOI/gm, PKtoi/gm 8.4-5.8, 4.9-6.1, 22:21-15:01, 2:22-2:03
Petry is better but not $3,500,000 better.
To take on that much cap over a two year period would cost more than a second.
So, "Would the Sabres accept a second round draft pick to take on the cap?
For only a <strong>second</strong>, the Sabres would say no."
Well that is my penny and a half.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2023 at 9:23 a.m.
Thread: UFAs to be had
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>Tatar is the only one that would add wins to the team. Kinda funny the forward is better defensive value than the d-man.</div></div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bwhsocal</b></div><div>not saying jokiharju isnt decent middle pair but in 4 years in NHL misses 30% of games not getting a 2nd for him. AZ got durzi for a 2nd</div></div> Granato thinks Jokiharju is significantly better than Luybushkin at a lower AVV.
He played 6 min/gm more than Lyubushkin last year.
This past season 62.8% of his ice time was with Power and the previous season 60% of his ice time was with Dahlin.
Four years ago everyone wanted to dump Okposo's and Skinner's cap.
Now Kyle is the captain and Jeff is the team's top LW.
Three years ago everyone wanted to send Thompson to the farthest planet.
Now Tage is everyone's darling, and everyone <strong>says</strong> they knew he had the talent.
At the beginning of the last season, everyone wanted to see Mittelstadt in any uniform other than Blue and Gold.
This past season, finally playing on a top line, he generated 17 pts in just 11 games.
This years whipping boys are Jokiharju (see above to understand what Granato thinks of him) and of course Olofsson.
Both are much more valuable to the Sabres than the 2nd or 3rd round picks most ACGM's are willing to receive when they are traded.
Olofsson's AVV will be half of DeBrincat's but Victor had one more goal while playing 500 fewer minutes last year than Alex.
Olofsson's AVV will be about 2/3 of Boeser but over the past four season he has more goals and played in fewer games than Brock.

<strong>It is a good thing Sabre ACGM's are not making the final decision on the Sabre roster.</strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2023 at 8:40 a.m.
Thread: Lines Id try out
A lot to like about this.
Moving both Casey and Payton up the ladder.
Granato knows best, but since Girgensons and Okposo are very strong fore checkers if Olofsson would work out well playing on that line.
He is going to score whoever are his line mates and as you said about sample size, that line was together only 9 minutes last year but had two goals, +2 and 57.1% Corsi.

<strong>Most obvious is the LHD with RHD!</strong>
It is interesting that during the 21-22 season Jokiharju was paired with Dahlin 60% of the time.
But that same season when he was paired with Power, 7 goals were scored while only 5 were given up.
This past season Henri played with Power 62.8% of the time 39 scored 39 given up.
I will put my trust in Granato, he will figure out the best combination of talent, skills and personalities.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2023 at 4:48 p.m.
Thread: is this the year the drought ends
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I say not this year. But good reasons they could be a top contender in the East very soon. Good young "controllable" players and still lots of cap available in the next few years.
Wings and Sabres could be on top of the Atlantic soon.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>They didnt really do anything to address their largest concerns. And theyre betting everything on a rookie with 7 games to his name. Does this have a history of working?
86 pts, 11th</div></div> I think you are both pessimistic. Let's consider:
<strong>First,</strong> Florida may suffer from Stanley Cup Hangover.
Tampa is definitely weaker this season after losing Killorn to free agency and trading Colton.
Boston is definitely weaker as Bergeron and Krejci will no longer be their top two centers.
The Sabres missed the playoffs by one point and were only 7 pts behind the Bolts.
Buffalo may not jump over them but since they are weaker, Buffalo should get more pts when they play against them.
<strong>Second,</strong> Johnson, Stillman and Clifton do not have to out standing just better than Bryson, Clague, Fitzgerald or Pilut who played 132 games last year.
That my friends is an easy hurdle to leap.
BTW, most Boston fans lament the loss of Clifton, he will not let us down.
<strong>Third,</strong> just as Cozens and Mittelstadt had break out seasons there is sufficient evidence that Power, Peterka, Quinn and Jokiharju could do the same this up coming year.
<strong>Fourth,</strong> Levi does not need to be great, just better than any of the GK's the Sabres had last year.
Considering how he has excelled at every level of competition for the past 4 years, it is not a stretch to presume he will do the same next year.
<strong>Fifth,</strong> The Sabres will not go through two seperate stretches equalling 20 games in which they only collected 4 pts.
The defense is better with the Free Agents but more importantly Samuelsson, Dahlin, Jokiharju and Power are all a year older.
They have endoured near playoff atmospher over the last month of the season and performed well.
<strong>Sixth,</strong> the most important, Don <strong>Granato</strong>! Does he ever have a ill word to say about a player or get overly emotional?

Last year, I was wrong with my prediction that they would end with 90 pts.
I may be overly optimistic, but this season they will get 100, for all of the reasons above.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2023 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread: Swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tjm220</b></div><div>You’re dreaming if you think Buffalo even considers that deal. They don’t need any wingers from the outside. If they have any interest in trading a defenseman to upgrade at forward they would target a player better than Beauvillier, and probably move 2 players to make that happen.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>homiedaclown</b></div><div>We aren’t LOOKING for upgrades on the forward group though
We have A TON of forward talent coming still
So trading away a young RD that we (Sabres mgmt) likes,
for a rental forward, that just doesn’t make much sense for us</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Prime_Jimbo</b></div><div>Having said that, none of Jok, Bryson or Lub are getting upgrades at the forward group. Value wise it's not off but fit is no bueno. Thanks for stopping by.</div></div> Jokiharju is significantly better than Prime_Jimbo.
He was only 23 when the season finished, most defensemen picked late in the first round are still in the AHL honing their skills at that age.
As <a href="/users/homiedaclown" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@homiedaclown</a> said management likes jokiharju playing him over 21 min/gm the last two years, 6 more minutes per game than Bryson, Stillman or Lyubuskin.
So <a href="/users/Prime_Jimbo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Prime_Jimbo</a> you are partially correct Bryson, Stillman nor Lyubushkin will not return an upgrade at the forward group and Buffalo would not trade Henri to do it either.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2023 at 9:52 a.m.
Thread: Final Move
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pinslack</b></div><div>Good addition. Tatar is a 5v5 specialist but GMs tend to ignore the fact that those players<em> exist</em>.
<strong>He's also the type of player that gets you in playoffs</strong>, what would be BUF goal. In playoffs, he'll fade away but anyway BUF would not care at this point.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Just to add to comment. If Sabres are the sell mode at TDL, a responsible forward like Tatar would get return
<strong>Actually, by the TDL Quinn should be back, Kulich, Benson Savoie and others could be NHL ready, even if they were in the hunt they could be sellers for the right price.
They should keep all of their defensemen but if Olofsson had 20+ goals and Tatar was doing well, they would bring home good picks or prospects or both.</strong></div></div> <a href="/users/PHEN" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@PHEN</a> I keep checking the transactions hoping Buffalo signs him.
Excellent post.

<strong>EDIT</strong>
I really like your line up.
Girgensons at center makes so much sense with Jost a spare.
This is your line up, but I wonder if Olofsson playing LW with Girgensons and Okposo digging the puck out of the corners and protecting his back would work well.
I will leave it up to Granato.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 26, 2023 at 9:28 a.m.
Thread: Shaking things up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Okposo_Lover</b></div><div>Hard to gauge what Matthew is worth but this isnt enough. keller is incredible but there is a big difference between him and AM, and this doesnt fill it</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BURGHgirl</b></div><div>I'm thinking the Yotes would have to throw in Cooley, another A prospect and 1st x2 and 2nd minimum</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KrakenTheCode</b></div><div>Matthews, for as good as he is, is a rental until proven otherwise. Giving up the equivalent of four firsts and a second on top of Keller, Crouse, and McBain for a rental is a non-starter for any team, especially a team like the Coyotes that is still rebuilding.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bwhsocal</b></div><div>not a chance - AM is elite but as TML has shown you need more than a couple elite players to win, need a complete team and giving up 4 (1st rounder Ill consider a core player) core players makes the whole team weaker. Im AZ I dont do the OP trade and forget about cooley plus A prospect and more high picks added, good gawd thats idiotic.</div></div> Let me start, sometimes trading away a teams best player while adding depth will make a team better.
Matthews ($11,640,250 this year and $14,000,000 next year?) is amazing, but Crouse, Keller and McBain can PK (2:15, 0:35, 2:07 min/gm), are cost controlled for the next four years ($4,300,000, $7,150,000, RFA) while adding depth (37, 24, 12 goals last year) and grit (18, 194, 304 hits last year) to your team.
Use the draft picks from Nylander and this trade to make a pitch to Carolina for Pesce.
The Leafs gain cap certainty, grit, PK, and defense, while dropping goal production.
This trade could work out really well for both teams, just as the Eichel trade did for both Vegas and Buffalo, both were better the season after the trade.

Finally, the Buffalo trade.
Brodie, Niemala, 3rd for Stillman, Strbak.
Buffalo eats all the cap ($7,500,000 actual and $5,000,000 AVV) and gets RHD prospect.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2023 at 12:43 p.m.
Thread: Leafs Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Affectionate_Side_64</b></div><div>I'll be completely honest, this argument is a bit of a reach for me.</div></div> You really do not understand locker room issues?
It should have been obvious to every one, that once Reinhart, Ristolainen and Eichel (and Taylor Hall) were off of the team, the Sabre record improved 33% to 46%.
Neither Kane nor O'Reilly were in love with Buffalo and came with serious baggage while Lehner came with drug issues and blamed Buffalo management while Botterill checked on his progress even after Robin was no longer a Sabre.
Players do not perform in a vacuum, they want to be treated as fairly and equally as their team mates.
If one has an impression that a team mate is over paid, or that one deserve more it could disrupt the entire team.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2023 at 9:35 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Affectionate_Side_64</b></div><div>...Hellebuyck doesn't need to fit within those categories...
Krebs' raise will be negligible. Middelstadt and Oloffson are the type of players you need to be wise enough to acquire assets for in a trade, rather than investing salary in them long term with such an abundance of potential replacements coming through the pipelines.

Any trade for Hellebuyck is contingent on an extension. I might agree that $10 mil is too much, but 7 x $8 mil with a rising cap? I think it's very reasonable and worst case would not be impossible to unload in the later years of his contract.

I think Levi is a great talent, but hedging your bets on him at the age of 21 may not only be a detriment to your team, but to Levi himself. Some of the best goaltenders in the league played behind elite starters before the torch was passed, if anything it should help their development for when the moment is right to assume the top job.</div></div> Let me translate my POV, Buffalo will not trade for a top notch player whose salary will exceed Tage or Dylan as it could create locker room issues.
Skinner is an obvious exception, but he appears to be a great locker room and on ice team mate.
I do not know if Connor will be a great team mate, but his $8,000,000 will be an issue in just 3 years, less than half way through his contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2023 at 8:51 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Canes
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Affectionate_Side_64</b></div><div>Don't want to get caught up in the Timmins conversation because I can see now it might not be the best fit; this is why I welcome constructive criticism.
With regards to Hellebuyck, <strong>any reward that great comes with some amount of risk.</strong> The way I see it, you guys have acquired every piece you need to be a cup winner and goaltending remains the only question mark.

Having Cozens and Thompson as your top 2 centers signed for less than 8 mil long term is dreamy. Having Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson as the foundation of your D core for years to come is unfair. Then you add the talent you have at wing with guys like Tuch, Peterka, Skinner (for now), Quinn, Krebs etc.; add further your wealth of blue chip forward prospects like Benson, Savoie, Rosen, Ostlund; tradeable assets like Middelstadt and Oloffson; as well as your incredible amount of cap space and... man, Bringing in Hellebuyck gives you at least 5 years where you're a top 4 team in the leaue in my opinion. That to me is one of those rosters where a cup is just inevitable.

I understand there's risk involved, but in my opinion there's equal risk in not making a move like that as well. Look at Edmonton; if they had pulled off a trade for a player of Hellebuyck's caliber just as they were entering their window it's hard to believe they wouldn't have at least one cup to their name.

<strong>Your roster is incredible, it's time to take that next big step in my opinion</strong>...</div></div> First, great comments.
Very refreshing not seeing insulting statements about the Sabre failures over the past 10 years or directed to the ACGM.
Actually, Edmonton did take a big swing and miss when they traded Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson.

But let's move on to the Sabres' roster.
Players who were traded for when they were very young, Jokiharju, Thompson, <strong>Levi</strong> and Krebs
Players who were traded or signed who had a connection to Granato or team mate Greenway, Clifton with Granato; Stillman with Hinostroza and Johnson with Okposo.
Players who have been on the team for what seems like forever Girgensons and Okposo.
Players who like playing for Buffalo Tuch and Okposo (yes he gets mentioned twice as he moved his family to Buffalo shortly after his signing).
Players were drafted by the Sabres Peterka, Quinn, Cozens, Bryson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Power, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, and Luukkonen.
All others Lyubushkin, Comrie, Jost and Skinner.
All others is a very short list and other than Skinner are role players.
I will imagine Power and Dahlin will sign for less than expected as they will take the Western NY <strong>Cost of LIving</strong> discount.
You are correct, Buffalo has a wealth of cap space with a 24 player roster and only the Hawks and Ducks will be lower when the season starts as Wings, Preds and Yotes need to add a player while Buffalo will shed one.

Why Hellebuyck does not work:
<strong>First</strong>, he does not fit well in any of the above catagories.
<strong>Second</strong>, the cap space is a mirage because even without Connor some very difficult decisions will have to be made for the 2024-'25 season when Casey, Rasmus, Peyton and Owen are all looking for raises (along with Connor Hellebuyck).
All of the surplus cap space will just melt away when Conner wants his $10,000,000.
<strong>Third</strong>, the Sabres believe Levi will be their Hellebuyck, and so do I.
<strong>Lastly</strong>, their window starts in two years when Tampa, Boston and Leafs either cannot afford the talent that they have or the talent ages out.
There will be other challenges from the Devils, Wings, Sens but as you correctly pointed out it is not only the NHL roster that is young and talented but their pipeline is top notch as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2023 at 9:45 p.m.
Thread: Brodie and Murray Out and Dumba In
Treliving has certainly made it difficult to get the Leafs below the cap ceiling.
He signed Bertuzzi before he made cap space.
As one can see, even moving out Brodie and Murray still leaves the Leaf's with sufficient cap space for only a 22 player squad.

Few teams will offer help knowing that the Leaf's need to shed nearly $7,000,000 before the start of the season.

While the Sens will be responsible for $2,000,000 of Matt's $8,000,000 actual salary, whatever roster he is on will need to pay him $6,000,000, that is going to cost a lot more than a third.

Brodie would have value if his actual salary was not $7,500,000.
Compare his $5,000,000 AVV with Pesce's $4,025,000 AVV and it is easy to understand.
His production is not commensurate with his AVV and is woefully short of his actual salary.
It is a difficult reality to accept, but it will cost assets to move his salary as well.
Maybe less than Murry's contract but it will still be substantial.

It is unlikely that any ONE team could absorb both of their AVV's
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2023 at 9:16 a.m.
Thread: Risky
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Flames pass. Backlund and Markstrom almost certainly decline too</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BUFF36</b></div><div>Markstrom is owed 8mill in Salary this year and has 5mill in Bonuses over the last 2 years of his contract. I wouldn't do this deal for this.</div></div> Let's agree to disagree, stick to the worthyness of the trade and avoid any editorials about the better team.
TBH it surprised me that <a href="/users/Skyraider112" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Skyraider112</a> would make a post as this, it is so out of character for him.
I suppose that is why he called it "RISKY."
Let's agree this is not the direction Calgary wants to travel but it is certainly not a good move for Buffalo.
They are trying to build a team for next 7 years, trading for Backlund, and Markström would shorten that window to the next two or three at the most as they are 34 and 33 yo respectively.
They may be upgrades over Jokiharju, Luukkonen, and Olofsson which why the first is added but we have not seen the best of Henri nor Ukko-Pekka and Victor is a scoring machine.
Olofsson has more goals than Boeser over the past five years and outscored DeBrincat last year playing 500 fewer minutes with a better +/-.
Let me add he had 5 GW goals (more than any Flame) and only 7 PP.

So let presume both the Sabres and Flames would reject this trade for different reasons.