Brian2016

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Forum: NHLJun 21 at 3:47
Thread: UFA Signing Predictions
Amazing post! it'd take me 2 months supply of adderall to complete these predictions!

Here's a few discrepancies:

1. Sami Vatanen: $4M x 3 seasons. He's injury prone, but was on a near career points pace before he was hurt and subsequently traded to CAR. He could be a really solid 3rd pair D on a contending team.

2. Jacob Markstrom: $5.5M x 4/5 years. He's arguably the top UFA Goalie. He had an incredible season despite playing behind a mediocre D.

3. Mikael Granlund: $4M+ x 5 years. He hasn't meshed well in Nashville, but he's still capable of 55+ points in the right system. I'd love to see him in EDM or CGY next season.

4. Cody Eakin: $1.75M x 1 year. I think you're spot on with the term, but anything over $2M seems a bit too much for a 29 y.o. coming off a 15 point season on a loaded VGK offense.

5. Brenden Dillon: $2.75M x 4 years. He's way overrated, imo. I think he's best suited as a 3rd pair D on a good team, but not in WASH.

6. Jimmy Howard: PTO haha

General conclusions:

This year's UFA class is very heavy on Goalies, solid on Defensemen and Wingers, and exceptionally weak on Centers. Haula will be overpaid in spite of his injury history (good call).

Dadonov will end up a better value contract than Hall, Toffoli, and Hoffman. I think he stays put in FLA.

Krug re-signs in BOS, Pietrangelo re-signs in STL, Barrie goes to WPG. He'll score 70+ points next season on the league's top PP.

Overall, considering the flat cap and other circumstances, GM's will be reluctant to sign Goalies and 30 y.o. plus vets to long-term deals. I call this the Binnington effect.
Forum: NHLJun 18 at 7:52
Forum: NHLJun 8 at 2:32
Thread: Where will hall go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HurricanesMan</b></div><div>Dallas needs space to resign Heiskanen, also another NTC/NMC to couple with Benn might hurt them come expansion</div></div>

Your concerns are def. valid, but I think they could make it work if they follow the TOR cap structure. Hall would need to take a slight discount, though. The problem is that Benn, Seguin, Radulov, &amp; Pavelski aren't anywhere near as productive as the Leafs' big 4 Forwards. But the Stars could trim a lot of fat by trading Comeau and/or Cogliano and giving Miro a bridge deal w/ a high qualifying $$. I'd need to run the numbers, but it looks possible.

They certainly could be in trouble when the expansion draft comes around w/ all of their NMC's, but they might be able to trade a pick to Seattle to make things work. Their window is wide open to contend. Without adding some top six scoring, they'll have a tough time getting past STL and COL, imo.
Forum: NHLJun 1 at 9:40
Thread: Veteran UFA Big Money Contracts From 2019
Let's look back at the top 15 or so big time UFA deals from last summer. I wanna focus primarily on 27-28 y.o. and up on multi-year, high-dollar contracts. How many have paid off so far? How many are solid deals? How many have underperformed? How many have been disastrous thus far? I've included pending UFA's who extended w/ their current team before July 1st, like EK65 and Brock Nelson.

Home Runs:

1. Artemi Panarin

Solid Deal:

1. Anders Lee
2. Semyon Varlamov
3. Gustav Nyqvist
4. Kevin Hayes
5. Brock Nelson

Below Average:

1. Joe Pavelski
2. Matt Duchene
3. Tyler Myers
4. Mats Zuccarello
5. Anton Stralman

Disastrous:

1. Sergei Bobrofsky
2. Michael Ferland
3. Jake Gardiner
4. Jeff Skinner
5. Erik Karlsson

My conclusion: I must admit, there may have been some confirmation bias at work here. I generally don't like long term deals for older players, unless they're All Star caliber players who aren't injury prone. Out of the 16 players that I reviewed, only 6 have lived up to the level of expectations their contracts suggest. That's only a 37.5% success rate. Panarin is a superstar. He was expected to perform well for $11M+, but not many people saw him as an MVP candidate. Clearly, he's an exception.

Another thing that stands out is Lou's success at locking up his NYI core on fairly reasonable contracts. All 3 performed well. None of whom were spectacular, but all were solid players for the money, in my opinion.

Paying Bob $10M will have a lasting impact on how GM's value the position. Watch how much more reluctant teams will be in the future when writing these checks.

Overpaying vets w/ injury troubles also proved to be a costly mistake. Several of the "Disastrous" deals were signed by players who're often hurt. Crazy. I'd be willing to bet that this theory would hold up in past years, as well. It's clearly a long man's game (a speed game), now more than ever.

Bottom Line: Some of these guys may bounce back next season, but the downside far outweighs the upside for most UFA's. Why would any team, unless on the verge of contending for the Cup, gamble so much on a 28 y.o. veteran when results seem so definitive? Just wait and see how much Taylor Hall is paid this summer!

The expectations on a guy like Skinner were so unrealistic that you really need to wonder how Botterill still has a job. At least SJS and FLA were supposed to be legit contenders when the overpaid EK and Bob, right? Ouch!!! How often do teams get crushed on RFA big money contracts? My guess is that the failure rate is a fraction of what it is for vets.
Forum: NHLMay 29 at 9:39
Thread: Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>even home ice advantage in the first round... is there any fans in the seats? both teams are going to be rusty. I love the nhl. I want to see it continue. but this? nah this is gunna be a bleep show where some random team that shouldnt have even been in the playoffs to begin with wins because they expanded it and actually got real minutes in real games. The entire point of the "playoffs" for both players and owners is money. Money for this year, money for next years contracts. Its all a money grab. Look at whats going on with MLB. owners want to pork the players, players know they are baseball, without them theres no baseball.</div></div>

I def. agree with what you're saying, but I'm just so desperate for hockey right now.

As far as the Draft goes, I hate the league's plan. If a team like DAL got knocked out in the play-in round, they'll have a shot at the 1st overall pick (if they have a 1st rounder, of course). Can you imagine the outrage around the league if DAL lands Lafrenierre?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26 at 5:50
Thread: Marner to NJ
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>firezfurx</b></div><div>A 5-10 pick in a draft has less then a 40% chance of becoming better then Marner. Also, it's Vancouvers 1st so it's in the low 20's. Furthermore, a guy like Severson could be got from a rebuilding team for a 1st, and a decent prospect. With all that taken into consideration, that mean's that Marner is valued at 3 low 1sts. (Wood + 2nd +3rd = 1st.) Are you telling me you'd trade Panarin for 3 1sts? (Yes Marner is more valuable then Panarin. He is younger, and although he isn't as good now he will certainly be in 2-3 yrs. Also a better contract)</div></div>

I actually disagree that Marner is more valuable than Panarin, even when considering age. Marner will probably never become an elite goal scorer, despite being surrounded by elite offensive talent (only 16G in 59 GP). Panarin is a top 10 player in the league right now (32-63-95). He's an elite playmaker with below average line-mates. Marner could potentially become a top 10 player, especially given his defensive abilities, but he's got a long way to go.
Forum: NHLMay 25 at 1:11
Thread: Is price elite?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kotkaniemi15</b></div><div>Price is mostly an elite goalie right now. Like anyone, he isn’t 100% consistent, and he has his off nights. There aren’t really any games in the last while where I’d say he’s been bad, except for whatever reason, in November for the past 2 years.

Montreal is no longer the team they were in 14-15 when Price won the Hart. They have great SAT percentages, and usually outshoot their opponents quite a bit. There haven’t been too many games where Price is able to show how important he is. The amount of games Price has quote unquote “stolen” each season has been lower recently than it has been before, but that’s just due to the habs improving.

At this point I’d say that over the past year or 2, Price has been good for most games, bad very rarely, and amazing a few times.

Is he elite? I couldn’t tell you. “Elite” doesn’t really have any kind of tangible meaning. Is he the best goalie in the NHL? Probably not. Goalies are so hard to differentiate, and a lot of how they play depends on the team around them. All I can say for sure is that Carey is a starting goalie, and that there’s not much that separates a lot of the good goalies in the league.

What I can say is that he is great for the Canadiens, and for them, well worth his contract. Price isn’t going anywhere, so it doesn’t really matter how he stacks up to other goalies, or whether his work is recognized with a Vezina or not.</div></div>

Well said. I agree 100%, I would only quantify your statement by stating that I feel comfortable ranking him among the top Goalies in the league. How many Goalies have been more consistent over the last 5 years when you consider his team and lack of support? What would Bob's numbers look like if he played for the Habs instead of CBJ? What about Bishop? Rask? Who knows!