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CantStopWontStop

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Forum: NHL11 hours ago
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
Imma bring this up at the all star break next season, never again until. I promise.

I use 5v5 rate metrics to compare players. It eliminates special teams usage, ice-time usage differences, empty net goals and 3v3 overtime. It doesn’t matter if one player has more games played or missed time for injury. You can see career trends in rate metrics you cannot see in accumulating stats, and I think 5v5 is as clean as it could get, representing the portion of hockey that often decides who wins and loses, the fairest thing we have to compare two players in different environments.

Since the trade, Michael bunting has higher 5v5 rates than Jake Guentzel in the following categories:

5v5 goals, primary assists, secondary assists, points, hits, takeaways. He’s also sat in the penalty box less and scored more game winning goals.

He is close to but behind Guentzel in shot generation, which makes sense since he goes to the net, but doesn’t discount that Guentzel is clearly better. Guentzel is clearly the better perimeter forward, has much more skill and body, and has a stronger 2-way game, but Bunting is able, and will continue to be able to contribute more to winning hockey by going to the net. The recipe is simple and you don’t have to believe a random internet stranger: literally every coach ever, all age levels, has a speech ready about working hard and going to the dirty areas, and they’re usually giving that speech to guys like Guentzel.

This trade was robbery, absolute robbery. The hurricanes upgraded the penguins, reduced their average age, saved them future money, gave them assurity for the next 2 seasons, and gave them a bag full of futures while freeing themselves of a trap of their own creation - giving Guentzel 21/22 minutes a night. Yet the consensus since day one has been the other way around. Baffling. Bunting isn’t even taking Crosby’s wing! He was with malkin mostly. Rust took Crosby’s wing, was just above point per game from trade deadline on, just like Guentzel (mid) was previously. God help this comparison if bunting got to be Crosby’s tap in merchant for a month.
Forum: NHLYesterday at 7:20 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
(Behind the scenes on how the perfect bracket was submitted?)

Imma be edgy and take Toronto over NYR out of the East, with the Lightning winning the battle of Florida.

Its borderline clinical to suggest the Bruins will lose in the first round again, but here I am. It’s hard to pick against the hurricanes - they’re near perfect, but I think in 7 games against the rangers I see the rangers prevail. I really like how the lightning matchup against the panthers, and think they’re maybe the best team to take them out. I think everybody else is kinda in trouble if the panthers get past the lightning. A lot of this is Vasilevskiy - he presents problems for the way the panthers score goals. He uses his size so well, his presence in close in action is notably better than his peers.

I think that Toronto’s skill will run wild and that they have enough on the team for the nights they’re muted. —unless Charlie Coyle has a Selke like series, they should manhandle the bruins (if Coyle plays 21 min a game+ and holds down torontos top end scoring while contributing offensively good luck cause bostons middle is gonna grind ya to dust). I wanna pound the table that coyle is under recognized, here’s a chance to make me look stupid - entirely possible he’s caved in, Toronto is so good. Be fun to watch this on display. I think Coyle can do a lot of good work but Toronto prevail, but if I am right and he’s very underrated, then my bracket will be blown up and I won’t care anymore.

I also think Toronto needs the reduction in spot light. They aren’t all in. I think you’ll see Toronto play more true to itself. It’s still extreme distraction, pressure, focus, but it’ll be like taking batting practice with the extra weight on the bat then taking it off to go hit. They don’t ultimately get the cup, Cheveldayoff does, but runner up is way better than first round loss.

Jets Leafs Final. Jets cup.

The jets haven’t lost this month, shutout their divisional peers multiple times. Haven’t had a muffin game - all contenders down the stretch (the wild once, kinda bubble contender), hot at the right time if you recall my prediction specifically that this would occur, best goaltender, deep diverse offense and defense, can win at any pace, have faced adversity, large amount of battle tested impactful guys in all positions, only the kings/predators matchup well against them but the jets are deeper and more polished. Meanwhile the jets have shown the ability to slow down top heavy teams, and will handle the Mackinnons and Mcdavids of the conference. The stars present the biggest challenge, but late rounds and old teams will do what it does.

Cheveldayoff conn smythe: the Dubois deal, Monahan deal, Tiffoli deal, resigning the best goalie in hockey all top gm marks and created a monster of a team while also having one of the least desirable markets with unfavorable tax status. He’s the mvp, and the cup will enshrine him as a goat gm.
Forum: NHLTue. at 9:35 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
I don’t think any of this takes away from achievement: each moment is the collective group competing against each other and is what it is:

But I predict we will get more big numbers from standout performers - for quite a while. Like record breaking stats. This is good! The alternative is hooking and holding. Nobody liked that path. It was awful. It took years of obstruction calls to break out of.

Expansionary time, while only at 46 new jobs, has an effect.

And the pandemic shutdown year has had an effect - players in early development missed a year, everything got nudged right a little bit, and everything took a haircut.

What we’re seeing is the cream rising to the top, while the main contents are being diluted. The cream is still the cream, undiluted. It rises higher and higher.

If the league adds another 46 new jobs over 5 years, this will accelerate. If you remember or can go see how bad hooking and holding were during the last expansionary period, you’ll maybe guess that there is quite a bit of runway for the top performers to do even more.

As a side bonus, to combat this, the league is placing a greater emphasis on safety: each acl surgery or serious concussion is further dilution, and the leagues efforts here benefit all.

It’s a good time to be a team with an elite performer and it’s a good time to be an elite performer.
Forum: St. Louis BluesSat. at 9:36 a.m.
Thread: 2023/24 post mortem, offseason predictions
Offseason Predictions:

Welcome your new coach, Joel Quenneville. I’ve been around too long, the little PR process in place right now seems obvious to me. Guy who has no job gets in local podcast to talk about wanting a job. They’re seeing how you all feel about it. I personally do not believe the average hockey fans cares about the past, oblivious to them, none of the details matter at all they do not care or know or care to know. Heck, I bet if you ask most casual blues fans, they’d be all for a guy who let some Blackhawk get diddled. Blues internet people have an oft repeated phrase for about 15 years running: F the hawks. Well - Q was all for that. My opinion is he has been sentenced for a crime, if that sentence ends it ends. I’m not going to waste my time stressing over it and I’m not going to stop liking my team. There’s far worse injustice in the world on a daily basis than if the league decides a 3-year ban was appropriate. Stl has previously hired individuals needing a 2nd chance. I hope Bannister stays, either at the nhl level on Qs team or AHL as HC with more power. He’s somebody I want on my team. But will see: I bet if you gave me a taste of the NHL while I was in the AHL I’d have a hard time heading back.

One or more of Binnington, Krug, or Parayko will be traded for various reasons. Binnington: cause his window is closing and he wants to win. Krug buyout possibly. Parayko because he’s the only one with value that you can move without jacking up your future because you get something good in return.

Parayko could be a great asset for Utah. Utah has so many futures. I think stl and Utah make excellent trade partners. I hope Doug Armstrong hits that jackpot, cause that franchise has an absolute massive amount of assets to trade, and apart from a few guys, stl has quality guys to offer in exchange. I think there’s some real win win trades.

Binner has trade value, could be a great target for Jersey, has a similar attitude as Jack, has a similar playstyle to Jake Allen who is having some success there, but unfortunately is old. Jersey would likely send a goaltender back among other things, and our depth chart would be young, but up to 3 deep with Zherenko. It would also be fun if he were a Flyer considering their Hextall days, but they just got that absolute unit of a goalie from Russia.

I feel bad for Krug, but this is the most competitive league in the world and it says sorry not sorry. If you want a spot you have to do better even when the situation is less than ideal. It sucks. The system does not have mercy. If you’re going to be capsized defensively that can be fine, but you gotta create offense, and that didn’t happen this year. Perhaps some other defensive change happens that allows stl to avoid buyout. Krug is not “the problem”, the mix, depth chart, and the series of injuries are. Something has to give.

I don’t think Kapanen returns. I think the DUI a week before a “prove it” season did it for me, not specifically because of the dui, but because he was busy filling his body with alcohol instead of post workout. At a certain level of fitness, drinking becomes repulsive. Your body is a temple and when you take care of it to the extreme, harming it is sacrilege. I’m not paying a person 3 mil a year to figure it out if he isn’t at that level. I don’t think athletes must abstain, but the week before the season you’re proving it is the time to be at your peak. I would have tried to release him then. I absolutely would not offer him a contract this summer. Not even for league minimum. It’s not personal, I simply value icetime - and I can find somebody to fill his minutes who is taking this as serious as they need to be, probably for a lot less money.

Otherwise, barring wild mega trade, I think the forwards look about the same. There should be one addition (two depending on sundqvist recovery timeframe), but it wouldn’t have to be a premium player. It’s hard to predict some acquisition as it really depends on the observations of all these young guys in the line up. Perhaps there’s an obvious hole to them that will be filled.

Post Mortem:

My expectations were that the blues were a bubble team and I got exactly what I expected.

I think Schenn got thrown under the bus a bit and whether that belief is correct or not, I like how his season went, how the team played all things considered. Buchnevich really played hard for the team as well, got rewarded with way too much icetime, but that’s an indicator of a depth problem. I would resign Buchnevich, he’s shown a level of compete, intelligence, and versatility that is hard to find. The contract might get iffy at the end but that’s okay.

Robert Thomas is elite. Imma start banging the selke drum next season. I think that award has his name on it within 5 years.

It will be beneficial to have given Dean, Alexandrov, Bolduc, Toropchenko, and Perunovich real ice time the past bit. No clue where they all end up, but I like that Krug was scratched (until Faulk injured), Hayes scratched so this icetime could be given. Now all those guys have concrete examples of things they need to work on as they develop.

I dislike the blues 5v5 scoring, is absolute dumpster, worse than Chicago. This is the gms failure, not the coach or the players - a depth team cannot compete without depth, and (among other things) a replacement for vrana should have been acquired the second month of the season.

Buchnevich would have way more energy per shift if he were skating 16-18 min versus 21-24 min a game. He should be skating 16-18. Dominant teams without unique players (mcDavidless stars, bruins) keep their minutes flat so every time a skater hits the ice they’re pulling from a larger energy pool. The only guys on those teams who go above 18 are guys who do both pp and pk, and thru the season they mix that up so the end result is quite dispersed. Go check out their teams icetime distribution compared to ours. I made trade proposals here for Josh Anderson, Tarasenko, Patrick laine (not knowing), and a few others at that time - if it’s obvious to me as an outsider…and you can’t convince me there wasn’t a reasonable deal to be found - you didn’t need to target a top liner or otherwise premium asset, didn’t have to be young, didn’t have to have term. But whatever.

The team had an outstanding record against good teams - just too many depth chart holes to do that reliably.

I think my standout moment was Kyrou getting booed after chiefs termination, which is a good indicator the season wasn’t spectacular. I have -NEVER- seen that reaction in stl. I think his future here is fine, and that the lowpoint is in the rearview, but if he were traded I wouldn’t be surprised. Another option for Utah. I like him, I think he’s a very cool unique element. I think the team is very dangerous if he’s on it and the rest of the forwards are properly placed on the depth chart, and he's used as a unique weapon, not in all conditions. If he’s taking a share of premium opportunities, but a peer with a different skill set is taking some too, both will be more effective. Kyrou is closer to Mitch marner than he is far, and moving on from him is silly. But if he goes I think that’s fine too. Whatever. I wish the local reporter who always has an opinion on Kyrou would stop being so …

I don’t understand how that guy gets money for doing what he does. It’s very immature for somebody who is so experienced … I could accidentally do a better job with no experience.

Lastly, I like Snuggerud staying in the NCAA. We have enough to develop. Stl will be in a better position to help him succeed a year from now. Historically, stl has given into every demand for collegiate prospects. Stl will again pay the fair price to get him when the time comes, and our lack of enough scoring depth gives him a future that could project high up on our depth chart. What more could he get elsewhere. Same with Perunovich - his future is in question - who else is going to bend their defense around him like stl has. Stl has the benefit of being able to offer opportunity,

It’ll be better sooner than later and interesting in between. This offseason has the chance to be one of the more dynamic of the teams history.
Forum: NHLSat. at 8:50 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
It’ll be interesting the coming years as to where bad contracts go.

So many teams have benefited from the coyotes historic strategies with cap dumps, injured players. Now, that pressure relief is gone.

It’ll also be so wildly unique for the trade scenarios. The franchise has an absurd amount of futures and cap space.

This new team, with all its futures, has the chance to be a true contender its first year and for the medium and long term.

Some things that could be cool:

What happens if somebody like draisaitl or marner is traded to the new Utah team. (I think both resign where they are) They’d have so many assets to send back along with quality nhlers. The trade possibilities are wild. They can afford anything they want, can make offers that can’t be refused.

Some gm is going to hit the jackpot.

I put it over in its place cause it’s long and most people don’t prefer that - but if somebody does like them, here’s a Blues post mortem and prediction thread:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/823174
Forum: NHLFri. at 4:20 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
Let’s just say: it’s fantasy land and in this place Mark Stone is cleared to play in the nhl prior to the final day of the season, and that he has to be activated off ltir because he is no longer injured. In this fantasy, the NHL office 100% believes that a ploy is in place so that Vegas can avoid cap compliance through manipulation of recovery times. (I acknowledge this is most likely not the case today).

Any guesses at:

What actual remedy would Vegas have to become cap compliant: Would they be forced to trade a player? Or is there something they could do roster wise to make this work?

What possible ways could the league render punishment? Just ding them a draft pick and move on? Let them play out the playoffs in the fantasy environment where they’ve failed to be cap complaint by like 8 milly?

We’ve seen punishments for negotiating with other teams players, and we’ve seen punishments for writing contracts that are cap circumvention, but I don’t think we’ve seen “team making player be LTIR when they are not” punishment. And it isn’t like there is a whole off season to consider these things: If this fantasy scenario occured, there’s like a week to make a decision.

I can think of a dozen times a player returned to play prior to estimated recovery times. I’d almost suggest that a player who has gone through numerous long recovery periods has become experienced at it, should be better than average.

Google says this, I haven’t read the source:

“NHL teams that violate the salary cap can face fines of up to $5 million, contract cancellations, loss of draft picks, loss of points, and/or forfeiture of games.“
Forum: NHLFri. at 9:35 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Nonsense.

SLC is about one-third LDS. The state is about 60% LDS.

The vibe in SLC is not same as say, Provo, where BYU is located, which is more heavily Mormon. SLC has a more diverse group of people and probably also includes a higher percentage of “Jack Mormons” (non-practicing Mormons).

Regardless, Bigamy/Polygamy is illegal in Utah for a century and a half. It is seen has a crime in Utah, just like any other state. It’s not something one ever sees or hears about in the state unless you cross paths with one of a few, small fundamentalists groups that are in rural areas (and make up about 0.1% of overall LDS population).

But based on where our culture and society are, for some reason, many feel like anti-Mormon hate is acceptable (while antisemitism, Islamophobia are not). None of it is okay.

Now <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">LDS is least liked religious group in US</a> per recent Pew study.

Be better, people.</div></div>

I think a lot of angst about certain large groups is simply because they’re just hedge funds exploiting tax code and the population to further selfish interests. The day the Mormon church dissolves Ensign Peak Advisors is the day I respect them. Until then, a spade is a spade. As it turns out in this case, the spade is one of the top 5 largest private investment firms globally.

Funny how hard it is to separate money and religion. Almost like one is a tool to get the other. I wonder how much the portfolio holdings influence religious teaching. (Spoiler: 100%)
Forum: NHLApr. 10 at 8:50 a.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
Charlie coyle for selke please.

Over 60% d zone starts all year. 200 minutes pk icetime.

1G/60, close to 2A/60. (Both career highs).

Kinda almost doubled his career hits best season.

Plays like every important defensive minute he could for a team who lost 1 1/2 centers (Bergeron, krejci sorta) and has been a playoff lock all season.

Charlie Coyle is the definition of the best defensive forward in the nhl.

I like guys like Auston Matthews playing 200ft - is winning hockey.

But guys like him simply do not get the challenging defensive icetime a skater like coyle gets. Skaters used for heavy offense don’t get the d icetime to earn the award. Maybe that’s unfair, but I bet Charlie coyle would score a bunch more, have a bunch of inflated stats, if he was at 60+ ozone starts, more pp time, rest during opposing teams push. Coyle should be recognized with a nomination at least, last year was a tragedy, as he was asked to set the table for his aging top line, set nhl regular season points record with him at 70% dzone draws.

I’d personally vote:

Marner (to win, because he is the best all things considered 200 foot forward and it overcomes his slightly offensive usage bias, and maybe that bias exists because of him creating ozone draws), Coyle, then I think you could give nominations to Barkov, Kopitar, Lowry, maybe even like Jamie Benn, Robert Thomas, nick suzuki, Nico hieschier.

I wouldn’t personally vote Crosby or Matthews even tho they’re goats, they just don’t get the job the others get, and they have their own categories of awards to win. Even if they’re both better at being a 200 foot forward than the award winner.

I’m probs missing somebody obvious it’s early.