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CaptJosef

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 28, 2020 at 8:54 a.m.
Thread: Laine
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mulletmario7</b></div><div>My thinking with having Sanheim be the center piece is that with guys like zamula and a lil ways down the line york and maybe wyatt wylie coming up it wouldn't be that big of a hole to fill naturally. Also I think myers has a better chance to be the #2 dman then Sanheim does. Something about his (myers) game with his size skill and speed makes we think he has a higher ceiling then Sanheim.

Also just saw the friedman report that they want a rhd so maybe they could work a trade around Niskanen +++ (frost would have to be included with maybe someone like laughton who can play center along with picks obv). Jets would be getting more nhl experienced players to mix in with their core plus young pieces in Frost and picks... Just more a spitball idea</div></div>

I sort of feel that this is the start of the Flyers window and taking out a key piece from the D sets us back a way while guys like York and Zamula develop (it's taken 3 and 4 seasons for us to really getting to a point of real confidence in Sanheim and Provorov).

As to the Myers/Sanheim thing, flip a coin I think. I don't think Myers will ever have Sanheim's IQ and vision, but they're both great pieces.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 28, 2020 at 7:51 a.m.
Thread: Laine
The problem with the Flyers using Sanheim as a centrepiece of a Laine trade (or any trade really) is that he's our 2nd best D. One year down the line Niskanen is gone and you're left with Myers and Provorov. Ghost, much as I really like him, hasn't been good enough for 2 seasons now and hoping he becomes a top D again is a long bet. He's a solid #4 in a core that has a great top 3 D. Myers probably fits in as the #3 in that group in the end. So now you need a #2 D.

Plus if Patrick can't go you've also traded the natural replacement in Frost.

I like Laine but moving Sanheim creates a bigger hole in the roster than adding Laine addresses as we're deep a wing as it is (Konecny, Farabee, Lindblom, Giroux, Voracek, are all top 6 wings, JVR and Laughton are middle 6, then there's Brink, Allison, and maybe Ratcliffe as prospects).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 28, 2020 at 5:13 a.m.
Thread: eventual 2C and defense help
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tsyls</b></div><div>Think about this, when was the last time a 22 year ld player that still has team control, who’s scored 138 goals in 237 games been traded?? I can’t remember that happening for a long time. I know that the Jets know they don’t have to move Laine, and they’ve set the price very high. It makes sense, to get a guy that young that’s under team control and can score that many goals as easily as he can, there’s no doubt you’d have to pay a stupidly high price to get him. You’d have to pry him off the team, give Chevy an offer he can’t resist.</div></div>

I get that. I really do. But that does bend both ways. I'm not saying Winnipeg has to move him, or the Chevy has to take any old offer. What I'm saying is that there are holes in the Winnipeg roster that need addressing (urgently?) and as such not addressing them is arguably a bigger mistake is than holding out for a massive overpayment to turn up. You have to strike while the iron is hot. Where would the team finish without a Vezina (and 6th place Hart) season from Hellebuyck? You don't sell Laine cheap, obviously, but do you stand pat if you don't get the 'offer you can't refuse' instead of the best offer than helps the team be better overall?
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 27, 2020 at 3:38 a.m.
Thread: eventual 2C and defense help
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tsyls</b></div><div>You can’t use a math equation to value a trade, do we know where those picks are? Do we know how strong the drafts are? No, so I mean, I get why people do that. But you can’t evaluate a trade based on O/S compensation. I think Laine is worth Frost + Sanheim + 2020 1st. Each players value is different obviously, I just can’t say like oh Laine is worth 4 1sts cause for all we know those first could all be picks 30 and that’s not worth Laine imo, especially with a few weak drafts thrown in there. I think there are teams that can offer the right package, just have to figure out who’s willing to pay that price.</div></div>

Fair enough. It was more for illustrative purposes, especially for those saying it would need to be 4 pieces made from top first round picks.

Laine is valuable no doubt but some of the suggestions, to me, are very rich. Like the type of value we've not seen in recent memory. I understand that Winnipeg has negotiating power here but they also have holes that need to be addressed.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 26, 2020 at 3:33 a.m.
Thread: eventual 2C and defense help
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jaycee</b></div><div>Flyers going to need to add another prospect and 23rd overall this year if we realistically want to get it done.</div></div>

I couldn't disagree more. First thought as a Flyers fan is that we can't fit that trade under the cap but assuming we make space elsewhere I can't see us giving up Sanheim and Frost.

I guess a lot of this is based on how you view Laine. He's a very good player but, imo, not a franchise player. I think you pick one top prospect / player our first round pick and work from there. People saying 4 of Frost, Farabee, Sanheim, Patrick, and our first round pick are way off. When was the last time a real trade was that stacked for anyone?

Look at the Stone and Karlsson trades, two of the best players moved in recent times. Stone (with a new contract) was a top prospect a 2nd round pick, and a cap dump UFA. I realise the Jets have more leverage with Laine though however Stone was wanted by most the league.

Frost could certainly be the centerpiece of a Laine trade, Sanheim too (I think the value is fair, I'm not sure if the Flyers give up their second best D though). Then our first round pick. After that is probably several middle 6ers or B grade prospects.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 25, 2020 at 3:35 a.m.
Thread: Smaller Tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Subban $1.5 x 2 = $3 million
JvR $1.5 x 3 = 4.5 million

net = $1.5 million

It would be then PHI retaining $500k over three years (total $1.5 million) and NJD retaining 0.</div></div>

But that's just salary retention... There's no circumventing of the cap going on, both contracts are getting paid in full the Flyers are just retaining for longer. It means, in essence, the cap hits are the same for the first two years (the retained salaries cancel each other out) but the Flyers retain $1.5M in year three.

Eg:
Year one of the trade: Flyers retain 1.5 (JVR) but also receive 1.5 'discount' on Subban. Net cap change = 0

Year two: as above.

Year three: Subban's contract has expired so the Devils are no long retaining on it. JVR has 1 year left so the Flyers are still retaining $1.5m on that contract. Net cap change = a 1 year 1.5m cost to the Flyers or saving to New Jersey depending on whose books you're looking at.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 24, 2020 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread: Smaller Tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Detroit declines. That's basically a late 1st rd pick and Laughton is good but with no 20 or even a 15 goal season it just doesn't make sense for Detroit. Hagg is some where between a 4 and a 6 I'd give up a late 3rd for him but that is about it.</div></div>

I get what you're saying but at the same time the value of picks usually flattens out around the 20 mark if I recall correctly so I guess it depends. A late first round to late second round don't change your chances a a great player much.

Laughton was also on pace for a 20 goal 45 point season in addition to the 9 points in 15 playoff games he put up. It was something of a breakout season as a middle 6 player who played wing and centre at various times.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 9, 2020 at 2:32 a.m.
Thread: Hear me out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Voracek makes no sense with the timing of Ottawa's rebuild, and even if he makes less than his cap hit, that doesn't mean the Sens are "saving money", because they are spending money they don't need to on a player who doesn't fit at all with the timing for this team.

Ghost also doesn't make very much sense for Ottawa. The Sens have offensive/puck moving LD, what they need is a legitimate top 4 defender in the style of what Marc Methot was for Ottawa years back. Right now they have nobody who plays a Defense first game that is any good. Also your proposal of Gost-Zaitsev would be an unmitigated disaster defensively.

"Taking on" Gaborik's contract isn't really incentive for Ottawa to do anything. The Sens are trying to save money through the rebuild and operate with a low overhead while they are a basement team. To that end, Gaborik give the team nearly 5mil against the cap, with a cost basically a league min contract in real money.</div></div>

As I've said above I disagree with the the whole rebuild timing thing. They have good young players in the NHL now, and they're about to add two more with the two top 5 picks (both of whom could well feature on opening night). They also have 13 picks in round 1-3 in the next two drafts. I'd argue this is exactly the time they need to add some better players around their youth. Especially while the flat cap means teams near the cap ceiling will have less leverage.

Edut: They also had $16m in salary on IR for $19m cap space this past season. Gaborik is owed $3m in salary next season too (though I believe insurance probably covers it).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 9, 2020 at 2:16 a.m.
Thread: Hear me out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mintyfresh</b></div><div>Don't think Ottawa would consider this trade. They aren't competing so adding Voracek doesn't make sense for them. Voracek is an interesting case. He's productive (although at times inconsistent), but he is over-paid, expensive, and over the age of 30. We'd have to send him to a team that is somewhat relevant, but also can afford to add him or at least have a cap dump they want to get rid of that they can add to the trade. Very few teams fit that mold.

Columbus, Carolina, Montreal, and Vancouver are the teams that come to mind. Carolina has enough talent on their roster to trade for a better asset that earns this level of money so lets take them off the list for now. Vancouver is the most interesting one. They could use his help, but cap wise it would come down to Philly taking on a bad contract like Roussel or Beagle, and also it would pretty much mean they can't bring back Markstrom.

But moral of the story to be honest those are the 4 main teams I think any Voracek trade could "realistically" happen with.</div></div>

Ottawa have to try and compete (or move in that direction) sooner or later and like I say, they had $19m on IR this season. Well, here's ~$13m that can actually feature to push the team forward. They have 2 good /great young D and a few good forwards. Plus with 2 picks in the top 5 (fair to think at least one of them makes opening night roster) it's reasonable to say they need to take a step forward and plug in some decent players around that youth.

The Sens don't need more picks for cap dumps as they have loads of picks already. They need some players who can contribute while also eating cap to make them compliant. They'll also want to do that with players whose real wage is lower than their cap hit (because Melnyk is so tight).

I could see there being other teams that were interested in Jake but for most teams his cap hit is prohibitive, for the Sens that's not the case, it's a bonus.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 9, 2020 at 12:31 a.m.
Thread: Winnipeg Fans Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HarterCart79</b></div><div>Migraine disorder is part of the problem, but he's also going to have problems with fans and media in this town which will attribute to his stress and confidence. I think it's unfair, but seeing Lindblom return from cancer and play put the writing on the wall for Nolan. Did you hear the organization praising him, his teammates saying anything about him? No, he's on social media posting about buying a new mattress when his team is winning an OT game in the playoffs. That shows you how invested he is in his teammates and the organization and they see that. I bet you anything he gets shipped somewhere this summer.</div></div>

I don't really buy into that stuff at all. If there were really deeper organisational issues we'd almost certainly know about it via at least one plugged in respected journalist. Fact is it's not news anywhere credible. Also Patrick has zero trade value. No team is going to gamble a large trade return on him as he's got the migraine issue. There's no upside to trading him. We won't get a good return, he wouldn't free up any meaningful cap space, and if he can play he's going to out perform his cap hit for us anyway.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2020 at 11:41 p.m.
Thread: Winnipeg Fans Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HarterCart79</b></div><div>Patrick is a former #2 overall pick and needs a change of scenery and hes from WPG, as does Ghost. He could return to a PP1 quarterback with 60 point potential if given more ice time with a different coaching staff. Laughton is a useful top-9 fwd, JVR could replace some of Laine's PP production, and Zamula is a very highly ranked D prospect, which last I checked the Jets are in need of. Two first rounders...I get your point but I still thought its enough quality within the quantity haha. What it it was Sanheim instead of Ghost?</div></div>

Patrick needs a change of scenery?! The guy has a migraine disorder. It's not as though a trade sorts that out. We're just going to have to be patient with him, frankly he has zero trade value right now.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2019 at 2:17 a.m.
Thread: Johnny Hockey and Lucic - Cap Neutral Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Macker74</b></div><div>I don't think its contradictory I just think its a move that makes Calgary a worse team for sure(Giving up the best player in the deal) and still have cap problems so it would be hard to improve to become a contender so if you are trading Gaudreau for a player like Frost and a 1st or one of their young Dman you would get some Cap flexibility back to add some more depth plus a very good looking young player who looks ready to play.</div></div>

I'm not saying it doesn't make sense to look for that return for Gaudreau I'm just saying that a trade based around Frost isn't improving the Flames and there isn't really any way for the Flyers to help out their cap space. In fact there's only a handful of teams that could take on that much cap and most of them are rebuilding so probably don't have the assets spare for a trade to make sense.