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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 7:32 p.m.
Thread:
Hanafin
<a href="/users/armchairchaosontwitter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@armchairchaosontwitter</a>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 7:17 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Again you get into this fantasy about "personal income" taxes. Why do you NHL players are subject to personal taxes on their whole salary. Why do you think Matthews pays Ontario or even Canadian taxes? Never hear about any player signing or traded to the Jays or Raptors complaining about more taxes, but the tax experts on CapFriendly think it's an issue.
Now I don't think Matthew is resigning with the Leafs, but certainly the reason isn't going to be taxes.
I know of one former NHL who made about 20m is his NHL career. He never touched any of "salary" and lived on other incomes the NHL and sponsors. Almost all of that 20m and more was sheltered in his "corporation"
Nice chart but doesn't meet the reality check of what "entertainers" pay in taxes.</div></div>
I do agree I don’t know the inner workings but I use the tools I have. I’m using cap friendlys calculator to determine all this. I think it’s an issue because money is money. Sure realistically they aren’t paying over 50% like most residents of Ontario but is it absurd to say that there is a difference there? The MLB and NBA also aren’t as cap conscious as the NHL. All but 4 NBA teams are projected over their salary cap. The MLB has massive disparity between the top teams and bottom teams in terms of payroll. The Os have 65m in payroll. The Yankees have 390m in payroll. That is 6 times more. Neither are really comparable to the NHL as both of the Toronto teams are either over the salary cap or well above league average in terms of what they pay their players. It’s different for sure but I would say matthews could leave because of the money tbh. I want to get smarter with it so I do study it but as of now, that’s all I have seen in terms of salary.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 7:02 p.m.
Thread:
Suggesting An Adjusted Salary Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>I mean there’s always the option to not live in the city of the team you play for</div></div>
Ok? You would have to live in a different state or province to see that real difference in income tax most of the time. The calculator cap friendly has is based on living outside of the city for the cities where it is common for the players to live outside. It says in the description:
“ Residents:
All players are assumed to be residents of their local region
Washington: The majority of Capitals players reside in Virginia (where the practice facility is located) and are therefore considered Virginia residents for state and city taxes
Philadephia: The majority of Flyers players reside in New Jersey (where the practice facility is located) and are therefore considered New Jersey residents for state taxes
New York Islanders: The Islanders practice on Long Island. The players do not live in New York City and therefore are not subject to the NYC city tax rate
New York Rangers: The majority of Rangers players live outside of New York City and therefore by default we do not incorporate the NYC city tax rate”
Sure you could live outside but this calculator is based on the majority.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 6:53 p.m.
Thread:
Suggesting An Adjusted Salary Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NJDevils1317</b></div><div>Are you also accounting for the fact teams in Canada pay American dollars but cost of living is with Canadian dollars?</div></div>
That is a non factor here. This is solely based on income tax. It is also a double edged sword with cost of living as the Canadian dollar fluctuates in comparison to the American dollar. There are points where the Canadian dollar is .7 the American dollar which is great for the players but when it’s .83 the American dollar, it is worse for the player. It’s a factor for sure but not for this argument as it’s how much the player nets.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:59 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>Rich people everywhere dont pay taxes like normal people, especially rich people who hace connections to other countries where they can store their cash and assets. It doesnt matter where they actually live or 'pay' their taxes. Anyone who knows anything about taxes knows that.</div></div>
Dude I’m agreeing with you. I’m saying the base difference though is there and translates to the loopholes. There is a reason why business owners have land in Delaware. It Varys everywhere but no matter what loopholes you have, you are likely paying less in the states as opposed to Canada. End of discussion.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>xercuses</b></div><div>I ain’t reading all that
I’m happy for you tho or sorry that happened
Nah Fr tho it’s crazy what taxes do to ya
Cali taxes suck too</div></div>
Lmao. I’m seeing what an adjusted salary cap would look like and cali and Ontario would have like 94m as a cap hit which is nuts.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:20 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>The signing bonus money is key, players can take those large lump sums of cash and invest it to make more $$$ than taking the regular pay check style.
I'm sure the investment money profit doesn't balance out the tax money loss, but still it's another factor.
Also all the rich need to do is spend a few grand on a good accountant and they walk away paying less tax than the normal man.
The tax the rich motto always fails because the rich can find the loopholes the normal people can't.</div></div>
Signing bonus definitely is more lucrative because the money is upfront. I do acknowledge that it isn’t black and white like this makes it out to be but this is the start. One makes more than the other upfront but there is still taxes on the signing bonuses. It would be a nice loophole to get players to sign with you if you have worse taxes to just put most the money in a SB. There are so many aspects to the game and money is a key one that isn’t talked about as much. Sure you talk about AAVs and contracts but most don’t get into the deeper aspects. This was mainly to show the deeper aspect and when you peel back layers, it makes sense to leave. Sure he won’t be paying the 53% that this displays it as but if he has a similar quality accountant, he should be netting less playing in Toronto rather than somewhere else. There are more aspects to it but this is a rough outline of the netted money.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:13 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>lol if you think rich people in canada and other higher tax states pay taxes like normal people</div></div>
Do you think the rich people in the states pay taxes like normal people? If there is a 14% difference between the 2, I would imagine there is a similar difference between the 2 when it comes to finding loop holes and all that. Not going to be linear but expect there to be a difference nonetheless.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 5:00 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Wow you sure care a lot</div></div>
Nah I just find it interesting and would like to share my findings :)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:59 p.m.
Thread:
WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ReginaSask</b></div><div>This is great work and probably the best example of how absurd taxes are in Ontario</div></div>
Honestly the only ones close in the NHL are the California taxes and all Americans know how bad those are. For there to be a difference of 14% between the location of one teams income tax vs the location of another shows how the NHL may need a salary cap rule change. I think an adjusted cap would be much more fair for teams as it doesn’t give Florida teams a major advantage. Nashville having a cap at $82.5m is the same as Toronto having a $94m cap. Pretty unfair but it is much more simple to just have the same cap hit for every team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:17 p.m.
Thread:
How Far
6.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 4:07 p.m.
Thread:
matthews era
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>If Matthews leaves Toronto, it wouldn't 100% be all about the money. It'll be a personal choice, likely stem by the fact he is an American. Kachuk wanted out of Calgary for the same reason. Not money, mainly his desire to live in the States.
If any American team can step up for him, I'd vote for Vegas, if they can clear up the cap hell they're in before the summer of 2025.
Vegas seems like the perfect place for Matthews.
Maybe Dallas too, not Arizona for sure, unless Bettman lets the Coyotes allow Matthews to be a team owner.</div></div>
I do think it will partly be money and partly a desire to go to the states. I’m working on a post rn for it but the best suitors for Matthews imo are vegas dallas Seattle and the coyotes. Matthews to AZ makes sense in the same way tkachuk to St Louis made sense. They grew up there and it makes it a more desirable location for them as family and friends are there. Imo Matthews leaving makes financial sense and sense in the fact that he would prefer the states to Canada (no hate to Canada).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread:
matthews era
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kster34</b></div><div>End the debate - Cardiac has chimed in. Now you’re an expert in taxation too :tearsofjoy
Good to know your job hickeyctales are ridiculous too :squinty
Matthews is well aware that he’s playing for the most popular franchise in The league with the biggest fan base. Organization is first rate and team is top 5. He also can sign lucrative endorsement deals here due to popularity of leaf Nation. Can’t get that in usa except for a handful of teams, none of whom will have space. And lots of states have income tax rates similar to Ontario.
Never say never - players get to make personal choices. but to make blanket statements like you do - laughable</div></div>
I mean there are so many factors that go into a signing. Matthews could get brand deals in America just as easily. Here is an quote from an article that shows Matthew’s brand deals.
“he makes approximately $2.3 million from endorsements alone. He has partnered with high-end brands like Apple, Verizon, Upper Deck, Bauer, Scotia bank, and CCM Hockey. Additionally, he launched his first NFT collection in April 2021 through collaboration with OpenSea.”
Now I don’t know about you but the brands listed are mostly based on the states.
ScotiaBank- based in Toronto
CCM- based in montreal
Bauer- based on New Hampshire
Upper deck- based in California
Verizon- based in NY
Apple- based in California
Matthew’s is also signed by Bet99 (a sports betting company based in Toronto)
The only major brand deals I can see Matthew’s losing if he leaves toronto is scotia bank and Bet99. I don’t know about you but I can see Matthews being scooped up by another sports betting company like draft kings, fan duel, betMGM, or Caesar’s sports book. As for scotia bank, I can easily see another US based company coming in and paying those dollars scotia is paying.
Look I am saying I predict Matthews will leave because of the dollars and the brand deals don’t cover it. I chose his main 7 brand deals and 2 of them he looses if he leaves. It is a personal choice for sure but as an outsider, it makes so much sense for Matthews to leave toronto. No hate there but the numbers talk. Toronto gets screwed by location due to taxes. Matthews is losing out on millions in contract dollars playing in toronto and unlike other sports, that’s a hockey players main source of income. Stars included. Mcdavid makes $4m from brand deals and matthews makes $3.5m himself. Matthews is projected to make $3.7m from his contract this year and mcdavid is projected to make $6.2m from his contract as well.
I am obviously no professional but based on what I know and the research I have done, signs point towards matthews leaving, regardless of brand deals. Two years from now matthews will not be a maple leaf. Like it or not, he will leave Toronto for more money. Say I don’t know anything if you like but I would like you to give me a reason I cannot negate on why matthews will stay.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 2:55 p.m.
Thread:
matthews era
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>But Canadian beer, weed and women are better than American. So he stays !</div></div>
Real zinger right there. Absolute knee slapper. I am rolling around in laughter.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 2:51 p.m.
Thread:
matthews era
With that contract, Matthew’s is netting 8.6m. If arizona for example wants to offer Matthew’s a contract where he nets the same, they’re offering 14.8m AAV. If Matthew’s is getting 18.5m from Toronto, somebody else in the states will offer 15m and get him because he is netting more in America despite it being less money. Calgary offered guadreau 11m, he chose to go to Columbus for 9.75m. Obviously it wasn’t a highest bidder situation but guadreau is netting more playing in Columbus than he would have in Calgary. Face the facts, even if Toronto gives Matthew’s the best offer in terms of AAV, he is still likely leaving because realistically he would be netting more south of the border.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 1:56 p.m.
Thread:
Matthews gone
<a href="/users/armchairchaosontwitter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@armchairchaosontwitter</a>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 14, 2022 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread:
All-Time Carolina Hurricanes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>evelutions2</b></div><div>You can’t have an all time Canes list, and NOT have the BBC line of Bataglia-Brind’amour-Cole as a line.
Also, Pesce over Faulk, and Andersen over Mrazek.</div></div>
Nah Faulk stays, pesce over hedican. Also mrazek nor Andersen should be here. Martin Gerber or Kevin weekes have a better shot at being that 3G. Imo pretty solid team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 11:55 p.m.
Thread:
Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>tl;dr</div></div>
Fair enough
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 10:20 p.m.
Thread:
32 in 32 lineups - Carolina Hurricanes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cardiac</b></div><div>Imo KK should produce next year. Watching him, there were so many things to like and when he can’t centering competent line mates, he was pretty good. His shot selection was pretty good and it showed with his shooting percentage. He also didn’t perform abysmally imo given his numbers and his linemates. Jfresh’s model for KK doesn’t paint him in the best light but shows he has two way center potential. It shows KK improved his all around game yet foundered offensively and with the 12% with teammates shows he was really being held back. His three main linemates were martinook, Lorentz, and stepan. The highest war percentile between those 3 was 21%. With KK being over double that, I can see him breaking out this coming season with 60+ points. The eye test also backs up this claim as well because it was frustrating to see KK make solid passes and then being screwed by his teammates. He just wasn’t fit for that role as a player as his linemates didn’t mirror or synergize with KKs style. I genuinely believe KK could go PPG this season if he is playing with good linemates all season. That’s being hopeful but I think he could be a very very good 2C this year.</div></div>
Images didn’t work, just look it up if you want to see it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 10:19 p.m.
Thread:
32 in 32 lineups - Carolina Hurricanes
Imo KK should produce next year. Watching him, there were so many things to like and when he can’t centering competent line mates, he was pretty good. His shot selection was pretty good and it showed with his shooting percentage. He also didn’t perform abysmally imo given his numbers and his linemates. Jfresh’s model for KK doesn’t paint him in the best light but shows he has two way center potential. It shows KK improved his all around game yet foundered offensively and with the 12% with teammates shows he was really being held back. His three main linemates were martinook, Lorentz, and stepan. The highest war percentile between those 3 was 21%. With KK being over double that, I can see him breaking out this coming season with 60+ points. The eye test also backs up this claim as well because it was frustrating to see KK make solid passes and then being screwed by his teammates. He just wasn’t fit for that role as a player as his linemates didn’t mirror or synergize with KKs style. I genuinely believe KK could go PPG this season if he is playing with good linemates all season. That’s being hopeful but I think he could be a very very good 2C this year.
Forum:
NHL
Aug. 13, 2022 at 9:14 p.m.
Thread:
Analytics are ruining your brains
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LloydminsterLarry</b></div><div>I’m retired so now I have plenty of time to watch hockey again but when I was working full time I obviously didn’t have time to watch a lot of it, so I understand the appeal of having some charts that someone can easily click on.
I played in the Alberta Junior Hockey League and for a rather short bit of time in the WCHL, the former name of the current WHL. To give you an idea of how old I am I played against Darryl and Duane Sutter in the AJHL. The other NHL guy I faced was Kelly Kisio but I’m not sure how well known he is now a days. I’m going to trust my own eyes even if they’re ageing over a chart someone on the internet came up with, especially if I’m watching defenceman. Sometimes though I’ll get a number mixed up. I did it a couple times with the WJC this week. We’ve always had stats and we’ve always used them. I guess I’m just shocked by how quickly these analytics are taking over and how they’re all I see young people in particular pointing to.</div></div>
Tbh I don’t have much hockey experience. I played but never competitively. Definitely wasn’t playing in a league with future NHLers that for sure. Mind you if I was miles on miles better, I would have only been draft eligible this year. I want to turn my love for the sport into a profession for sure but watching and studying the game seriously for a few years now, I would say I have been able to develop and form solid and knowledgeable opinions on hockey. I am more of a fan than I was ever a player but despite that, I have grown knowledge on many facets of the game. I know what you want to see and what you don’t want to see in a player when you watch them and scout them and that’s why I have formed many opinions on prospects and players. Analytics don’t account for everything but when I form my opinions, I use both the eye test and analytics. As I said previously, puljujarvi I would want on my team over reaves for a playoff run. From what I have seen from puljujarvi, is he an offensive black hole. He is an analytical darling but he has had the opportunity to play with two of the best players in the world and hasn’t performed himself. Analytically he makes his teammates better but watching him, it doesn’t look like it as he is as he messes up so many good opportunities. His defense is solid imo but not as good as analytics make it out to be. A fully formed opinion on puljujarvi is that he has the tools to be a great 2 way winger but as of now, he hasn’t put it all together yet. I would trade at most a 2nd round pick for him as a low risk high reward trade. Ken holland likely didn’t receive a better option than a 2nd which is why puljujarvi hasn’t been traded yet. Holland knows his upside based on analytics and sees the flashes in his game so therefore won’t trade him because it would objectively be selling low on him. This should be his make or break year as he could either be a legit 2 way 70 point player playing on mcdavid or drais wing, or could be a third line defensive forward who scores 40 points which is good for defensive forwards on the third line. Hard to tell right now but imo at his age, he is worth a solid bet despite not playing super well last year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 8:46 p.m.
Thread:
LAF AND MILLER
My issue is is that the rags long term cap is screwed. The 2025-2026 season already has 53 million dollars in cap already locked up in 7 players. Its probably not a crazy assumption to say that will be over half the cap that year. That doesn’t include any of the young talent in miller Laf kakko chytil Lindgren Schnieder or Jones. All could be contributors to the rags for years to come. If just one of them has a breakout year, the rags are screwed on cap for the foreseeable future. Imo the best move for the rags future is to move trouba, bread man, or kreider. Those 3 total 25m and just saving 6.5m+ Could allow the rags to keep their core for years. The rags aren’t in a rebuild situation at all but I would say retool one of those three could be the best for long term success.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 8:36 p.m.
Thread:
Canes Pull a Tampa for Playoffs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Canesfan21_</b></div><div>Wouldn’t do that</div></div>
There you have it, that’s why it is not realistic to bring in meier unless he is on sale.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 8:30 p.m.
Thread:
Canes Pull a Tampa for Playoffs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>His qualifying offer is a poison pill. No team is offering the QO so he would likely become UFA if not extended. It is intended to give him leverage on extension.
Barzal, DeBrincat have similar, but not as bad, structure to their deals.</div></div>
What’s the QO? I know cats is 9m
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 13, 2022 at 8:24 p.m.
Thread:
Canes Pull a Tampa for Playoffs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>For a rental?</div></div>
Meier is a 25 year old who is an RFA after this year who was just PPG on an awful sharks team. Unless I am mistaken, meier isn’t a rental.
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