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Glep
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Forum: NHLAug. 13, 2022 at 8:22 p.m.
Thread: Analytics are ruining your brains
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LloydminsterLarry</b></div><div>Watching 15 minutes of film on a player will tell you more than any chart can. Now the average person doesn’t have the time to do it so these new charts have become the way for the fans to debate who is good or who isn’t any good. We’ve been having that debate long before the analytics crowd existed. It’s nothing new for fans to argue. What I can’t stand though is random fan x who’s never played a single game will tell a fan who has played the game that this chart is the one and only way to determine if someone is good or valuable in some way. I had someone here explaining to me why the Oilers just can’t trade Warren Foegele because he’s an analytics darling apparently. I wouldn’t want to trade him if he was paid a million less but the results of the cap make him a must trade player. The naysayers will say just trade Barrie instead. The problem is what Barrie brings is harder to find than what Foegele brings. We can sign a UFA at a million or so bucks to do Foegele’s job. What’s left to replace Barrie is a downgrade but again these fans say we must overpay a winger because apparently he’s an analytic darling</div></div>

It’s obviously too much to do as teams employ people to scout NHL games to watch targets. Imo analytics aren’t perfect but watching a lot of hockey also isn’t perfect too. It’s impractical mostly but watching a lot of games myself, 2 a day during the regular season, and up to 4 on the weekends, I would say I can determine solid opinions on players. I do watch more hockey than the average fan but I do believe my opinion is solid. Not to mention I consume hockey media from other sources too. A solid analysis is the hockey guy on YouTube as he doesn’t really use advanced stats that much. Graphs are the quickest way but imo it’s gotta be a split between the eye test and the analytics. Hard to see a true happy medium now but I believe there are ways of getting the eye test and the analytics without giving up hours of your day to develop those opinions.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 13, 2022 at 7:19 p.m.
Thread: Canes Pull a Tampa for Playoffs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AceCane</b></div><div>Living a simulation right now so life’s a video game lmaooo but if im being real thats a fair argument i still think SJ needs to somehow fast track their rebuild rather than trying to hang on for a chance to make the playoffs or just a middle of the pack team wether its a trade with Canes or another team willing to pay for him they need to do something sooner than later</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AceCane</b></div><div>Living a simulation right now so life’s a video game lmaooo but if im being real thats a fair argument i still think SJ needs to somehow fast track their rebuild rather than trying to hang on for a chance to make the playoffs or just a middle of the pack team wether its a trade with Canes or another team willing to pay for him they need to do something sooner than later</div></div>

If there were to be a realistic rebuild for San Jose, i would imagine meier is a coin flip on if he stays or goes for it. The canes have a super deep prospect pool, but it would likely mean that the canes would have to give up their best prospects to get meier. The canes have the quantity but not the quality. I would imagine a package for meier without Jarvis would look like

To CAR:
Meier

To SJS:
Necas
Morrow
2023 1st
2024 conditional 2nd that can turn into a first

And picks or something to even it out.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 13, 2022 at 6:59 p.m.
Thread: Canes Pull a Tampa for Playoffs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AceCane</b></div><div>Normally id laugh with but whats your reasoning lmfaoo</div></div>

Quantity for quality in the sharks trade. Trading a recently signed UFA away which isn’t seen typically. “But Gunler and suzuki are good prospects” yea but not good enough to get meier+. If we want meier, morrow and drury is the start. Plus you’re giving up 3 Bottom pair/7th D men.

“But bear can play top line minutes and so can gardiner”
should they be playing top 4 minutes at all? Plus you’re adding in 3 picks which is something but clearly doesn’t make up for the rest of the fiasco.

I’ll put it to you like this. If the trade looks more like an video game trade an a real life trade, you messed up.
Forum: NHLAug. 13, 2022 at 6:46 p.m.
Thread: Analytics are ruining your brains
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HiddenValley</b></div><div>I couldn’t agree more. Analytics can be useful but that is one of a few sources of information you should be using to evaluate a player. The problem is, people use only that to form their opinion. When you can say nothing about the player other than look at their advanced stats, you really have no opinion about the player at all. There is zero context provided with these advanced stats. Analytics don’t tell you how fast McDavid is, how amazing Matthews shot is or how big of hits Seider throws. I hate that this has become a problem in the hockey world.</div></div>

I agree with you on how analytics don’t determine that, but I am saying analytics should be a tool used to determine a players worth. If you can use analytics as a tool, like what most staff in the NHL do, you form opinions based on a multitude of factors. Using different models, plus the eye test, plus whatever else you do to determine the value, you form a well developed opinion on everything. Models aren’t perfect for sure but they’re a tool to use. I like them but I also like the eye test but when I determine value, I would say it’s a healthy combination between the two. I can’t speak for others and there are definitely analytical kids who just say number number number but the eye test is crucial. Patrik laine is a solid example of analytics vs eye test. Laine had abysmal advanced stats in terms of EVo and EVd but his total stats come out to middle of the pack. Now is laine worth a middle of the pack asking price? HELL NO. He is worth PLD+ and that was when his value was down. PLD was in the 90% when traded while laine was in the 60s. Eye test is a key factor in developing an opinion so I use it with mine. It’s much easier to look at a graph than watch 15 minutes of a players film so that’s why so many do that now. Shame but it needs a happy medium.
Forum: NHLAug. 13, 2022 at 6:36 p.m.
Thread: Analytics are ruining your brains
How bout you pick 20 players at random and see where their value is compared to advanced stats. Sure reaves is a bad player but so is Jordan martinook. Why are both players on their respective playoff caliber teams despite being the worst analytically? They supply things that can’t be measured by analytics. How is analytics supposed to account for being a locker room guy or a physical presence on the ice? It’s not supposed to, that’s why humans make the decisions and not computers. Analytics are a tool to use and a tool that successful teams have been using as of late. John Chaykas yotes are a common argument against analytics. Based on analytics, he made moves that made zero sense with advanced stats. There are tools to determining a players value and the modern game relies on analytics as one of the main ones. Ryan reeves sucks analytically, that is fact. Would I want him on my team for the playoffs? I guess but I wouldn’t want him on the ice unless it’s against other grinders and I would rather have a guy like puljujarvi for that run. Analytics and the eye test are the main tools used in the modern game and the most successful teams use analytics now. It’s a tool used for determining value. Most people use Jfreshs or Doms models as their main arguments but really there are so many other ways to determine things. Teams have their own models and we don’t know those models but what we do know is that analytics help determine a players value but is not an exact indicator. If you want to stay in the past you can but the wave is to use analytics to help determine value. Not all of the value, but help determine value.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 13, 2022 at 6:23 p.m.
Thread: Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>LOL

Yeah I guess Sakic just used his magic wand...

*poof* "There you go Arthuri, you used to suck but you're good now"

And "take away all the teams that would pay a 1st and no team would pay a 1st" is a very uneducated statement LOL

You are hillarious and make ZERO sense (noticed the capital letters to make my point stronger?) 😉

Or maybe, maybe, Lehky and Armia have always been good performers in the playoffs because they contribute more than just points and Sakic knew it wasn't an overpayment because he WatChEs GaMeS.

Nah, you must just know better.</div></div>

You don’t get it. Lehky was never a good playoff performer before colorado so you can be sure to know that they weren’t paying a first for somebody who has been outstanding in the playoffs. Yes he played well with colorado in the playoffs but in 33 playoff games with montreal, he posted 12 points. FARRRRRRR from the playoff performer you claim him to be in montreal. In the Avs 20 games this playoff run, lehky doubled his playoff production from years previous. His PPG was .7 with the Avs and .36 with the habs. One is clearly superior. You claimed him to be a playoff performer which he was clearly not when traded. Lehky was worth the first because he was one of the top producers on the Habs, was an upcoming RFA, and was a cost efficient player to bring in. Not to mention montreal RETAINED on lehkonen. And yes I am aware lehkonen is more than a point producer but maybe just hear me out, I saw lehky play in the habs cup run and didn’t think much of him. I saw Josh Anderson play in those games and although he wasn’t producing on the score sheet, I liked his play in the run. Now lehkonen? He wasn’t good at all imo, he just was a non factor. Not to mention lehkonen was a healthy scratch at points too. I’m not saying they overpaid for lehkonen. You just simply have the reason why he brought lehkonen in wrong. You say it was because he was a playoff performer. He wasn’t when traded so it’s not that. Maybe it’s the fact he could be a solid contributor for the Avs for years to come? That seems a lot more plausible. The Avs have contract control over lehkonen so that’s a big part as to why that trade happened. You are making it out to be thag lehkonen was this great player for the habs in the playoffs but really it was just that he was a solid contributor who had contract control. Not to mention that it’s a better bet to bring in lehkonen than it is to keep Barron and a 2nd.

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/amp/

Dobber (an expert) guesstimated the players picked between 16-32 have a 50% chance at being solid NHLers. Excluding the 8 players drafted after 2013 expect pasta and roslovic (which helps the argument against lehky), only 19 players have played more games than lehky which excludes the fact that lehky is only entering the 8th year of his career and could double his numbers. 29 other 25th OA picks lehky is better than at only 7 years into his career. 60% of 25th OA picks, lehky is better than already. Plus the 2nd rounder too which all 2nd rounders have an AVG chance of 35% of being NHLers. So combining the odds, that’s an 85% chance of getting an NHLer for lehkonen. Barron isn’t worth a 1st anymore, and that second doesn’t cover the difference either. Do you think Barron plus a 2nd could have gotten the 32nd OA pick? Be honest. So did the habs even get a first for lehkonen or did sakic fleece them like he always does.

I watch games and what this boils down to is armia not being worth puljujarvi and if you had any lick of common sense you would agree here. Sakic got fair value for lehkonen and playing in a superior system, he is performing better than he ever did in montreal. And did sakic even give up equivalent to a first round pick? You weren’t right about lehky and even if you were, you would be right for all of the wrong reasons. End of discussion.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 13, 2022 at 12:17 p.m.
Thread: Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>People used to call me delusional and bring up regular season stats when I was saying Lehkonen was worth a first round pick because of his playoffs play.

They are silent now.</div></div>

You make absolutely ZERO sense. Lehkonen was at.5 PPG at 26 and was coming up to be an RFA. His playoff play? He clearly wasn’t a performer as he put up 4 points in 17 games. He was not a good playoff player till he was in colorado which was after the trade. Colorado was overpaying for a playoff push. Take any team outside the top 4 and none are giving up a late first for lehkonen. You clearly don’t watch hockey as this is clearly an uneducated statement to make. You were right about lehky for the wrong reasons and are wrong about armia just flat out wrong.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 13, 2022 at 1:13 a.m.
Thread: Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>Montreal says no because they cant/dont want to add any caphit, period.

People looking down on Armia should look at his playoffs stats and shut up.

Get real. Oilers would be lucky to get Armia for Poolparty.</div></div>

I can’t tell if this is serious of not so I will be critical of either situation.

If serious: you’re delusional. Armia was mid in the playoffs at best. 8 points in 21 games isn’t close to puljujarvis ceiling. Not to mention the 14 points in 60 regular season games this past year and playing like a replacement level player. Get real. Puljujarvi gaps armia in every facet of the game.

If not serious: make it a little more obvious you’re joking. This is coin flip on if serious or not. If it is a joke, make it slightly less believable.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 11:21 p.m.
Thread: NWWFTLF
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kster34</b></div><div>You literally showed them missing the playoffs :sarcasm
Understood you’re not a Leafs fan but that just strikes me as a bit crazy. Canes are just as, or more , likely to miss than Leafs other than their div is weaker (not by much but weaker) .

“Assuming the leafs goaltending goes as I predict and there is a top player sidelined by injury for 30+ games, these are my standings predictions.

Atlantic:
Y-TBL
X-FLA
X-OTT
X-DET
TOR
BOS
BUF
MTL

Metro:
Z-CAR
X-NYR
X-NYI
X-PIT
WSH
NJD
CBJ
PHI</div></div>

Assuming the goaltending goes as I predict and a top player is sidelined for 30 games. Is that the current state of the team. So as I just said. Agree to disagree. You won’t agree with me and I won’t agree with you.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 11:19 p.m.
Thread: NWWFTLF
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kster34</b></div><div>You can use that same dumb argument for your team too :tearsofjoy . So the people whose job it is to make money on bets don’t matter but “there are people”.. come on dude. You’re entitled to your opinion and so am I so all good. But Leafs are a better team than Carolina imo and they have a better chance (even though they play in harder division) of making the playoffs than Carolina. There are “lots of people who believe that “</div></div>

That the canes are too top heavy? That the goaltending sucks? That the canes could miss after their 116 point season? Got worse? Which argument do you mean pal.

Too top heavy? No. The canes are one of the most balanced teams in the NHL. If you followed hockey you would know this.

Goaltending sucks? Cant be this argument.

Could miss after their 116 point season? While possible, highly unlikely as the canes did not regress nearly as much as the leafs did this past off season, even with the pacioretty injury.

Got worse? They were better pre patches injury and are what most think, are relatively the same as last year as they have the youngest top 6 in the NHL with an average age of 23.6. Expect the top 6 to improve and the additions made will further the teams improvement.

I’m not saying it’s likely for the leafs to miss the playoffs but believe me, I’m placing a small bet on the leafs missing as the payout is massive. Now with a massive payout, that implies the general community believes the leafs will make it. I am against the general populous but it is not nearly as bad of a statement to say the leafs could miss as it is to say the canes will. The leafs would need one injury to have their playoff hopes in jeopardy. Patches being a top 4 forward for Carolina and being injured, do you see canes fans sweating the playoffs? What if nylander or Tavares got injured for most the year? How much do you think that changes the leafs odds. Now in this hypothetical imagine both aho and matthews went down. Which teams is better? Both missing their top forward and 4th best forward. Exactly. One of those teams is still making the playoffs with ease and the other is in danger of missing. It’s my opinion and as you said we are entitled to our own. We clearly won’t see eye to eye. Agree to disagree.