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It Is Umlaut Season
Member Since
Jun 20, 2017
Favourite Team
Ottawa Senators
2nd Favourite Team
Minnesota Wild
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr 11 at 8:28
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 5 at 11:10
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 29 at 11:58
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>Lassi was the captain of the Finnish world junior team right after his draft. Would have captained the team again this year but was a little too old. He's looked great in Belleville this year. I wouldn't say he's underwhelmed. On the other hand Peterka has done everything that's expected of him and more. I could see Ottawa doing this, especially if they take another RD in CLarke this year, but I agree that Buffalo doesn't really have any incentive to make the swap.</div></div>

Lassi has looked awful in Belleville this year, don't prospect hug and pretend everything is alright. He's been so poor that coach Mann explicitly and directly dragged him in the media and said how little he could handle the responsibility of being their powerplay quaterback, that he was nowhere close to a Wolanin or Brännström OFD with the puck, that he's being put into situations he's not ready for (PP and top 4), that he panics with the puck, and that he needs more time to adjust to the North American ice. He started with all the opportunity in the world and was gifted a spot on PP1 by virtue of how much the Sens wasted a pick on him but he's quickly been demoted and is now on the 3rd pairing and getting fewer and fewer minutes because he continues to be absolutely atrocious defensively and not contributing enough offensively to make it worth it. The fun part? This is the exact same thing that happened two years in a row in Liiga where he completely lost his coach's trust. He hasn't improved since being drafted too high. Woo!

And captaining the WJC team? He lead them to no medal, the team went 2-2 in the preliminary round and he had a miserable 3 P in 7 GP, good for a tie for 7th on the team and 3rd amongst D (behind two guys who were drafted after him and have been way more impressive than him since the draft in Liiga and the AHL). Just because he had a C put on his jersey doesn't mean anything. He was a complete disappointment at that tournament.

Buffalo loses that trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 15 at 3:41
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 6 at 11:34
Thread: How close
I'll offer a different perspective as a Sens fan: I think Brännström is a 3rd pairing, powerplay specialist at best. His defensive IQ is and likely never will be of top 4 quality and he's the kind of small player who really, truly is set back by being small. He is constantly muscled off the puck and loses countless battles due to his lack of strength, and while his skating is smooth, it doesn't make up for the areas in which he is poor. He is an <em>excellent</em> powerplay quaterback, potentially even better than Chabot, and really excels when he is mobile on the opponent's blueline. His passing and his shot are both above average and project to be solid tools at the NHL level. If he is anywhere else on the ice though, he's been a detriment to the Sens on a team filled with bad defenders. Fans just put on their blinders to hide from it because he was the return for Stone and because they want to see a future in him. While in Belleville, he put up a lot of points, but this was in part due to an incredibly strong powerplay unit and forward core that chugged along regardless of who was distributing the puck from the backend. All this being said, Erik Brännström has a ton of potential and is also very likely to make me eat all of my words. He's got a tremendous ceiling, I just adamantly believe he's going to come nowhere close to it.

However, I am just an idiot who watches from home. Pierre Dorion is the one who traded the soul of this franchise for him and boldly declared the day to be his greatest as a GM. The fans that herald Brännström as the future saviour of this blueline are going to be much like Dorion, and he's the one who Adams would have to convince with this trade. For that reason, it'll probably take a far-too-large plus from Buffalo's end.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 6 at 11:01
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 5 at 3:21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I don't follow the Sens that much, but from a simple logical deduction of Brown being a 23 year old prospect still not being able to break into one of the weakest rosters in league kinda tells me he's a bust. And it's kinda followed by Sens fans constantly trading him here.

Reilly has been comparably impressive this year, but according to the statistics this site here has shown me, Brännström's at least as good as him, and points wise more effective. I dunno whether they're used in different roles but the OTT fans seem to be pissed with how Smith is treating Brännström, more than actually agreeing with the guy of his decision.

I'm not that great of a judge on their play as I don't have all the facts, so I'm gonna go with what the majority in here have claimed, or by a simple logical deduction.</div></div>

Sens fans trade him a lot here because the organization has turned their back on him and as a result, he seems like the odd one out. The local media clown, Bruce Garrioch, attempts to throw assassination attempts at the youth of the team every game to see what sticks. The current circus is Logan Brown trade rumours. That doesn't make him a bust; most of us are terrified to watch any inevitable trade because he will almost certainly do better on whichever team he ends up on. He's ready for the roster, has comparable if not superior numbers to Norris, and yet he hasn't been afforded the same opportunity or a leash as long. It has less to do with his growth as a player and more to do with the stunting of his development and their failure to give him his earned opportunity. It's a huge debate in the fanbase and a hotly contested argument that the GM intentionally avoids and has remained secretive on. Their most recent public comment is that they "have a plan" for Brown but they won't share what it is. DJ Smith says he wants for him to play a stronger 5v5 game (while we were playing Batherson and Norris, who began the season with 1 and 2 even strength points in 16 GP respectively) and hopes that he changes his style of play in order to make it onto the roster. The same was seen with Colin White to begin the season, who has now become more of a grinder as the season has gone on.

Not sure which stats you've seen. Mike Reilly's isolated impact from hockeyviz has him at +16% relative to the league on even strength offense, and 0% on even strength defense. Ottawa's offense is 2.79 xGF/60 with Reilly (+11%), 2.45 without (-3%). Their defense is 2.19 xGA/60 with (-13%), 2.73 without (+9%). Conversely, Brännström is -4% relative to the league on offense, and is -1% on defense. With sheltered minutes, Ottawa's offense is 1.87 xGF/60 with Erik (-26%), 2.63 without (+5%). Their defense is 2.46 xGA/60 with (-2%) and 2.59 without (+3). Brännström's 5v5 CF is 52%, his xGF is 43% and his ixG is 0.38 while looking at a 59% oZS%. Reilly's 5v5 CF is 53%, his xGF is 54% and ixG is 0.84 while having 47% oZS%. To help line it all up:

Reilly: +16% isolated xGF/60, -0% isolated xGA/60. +11% team xGF/60, -13% team xGA/60. 53% CF, 54% xGF, 0.84 ixG, 47% oZS%.
Bränn: -4% isolated xGF/60, -1% isolated xGA/60. -26% team xGF/60, -2% team xGA/60. 52% CF, 43% xGF, 0.38 ixG, 59% oZS%.

This indicates that Reilly is absolutely blowing Brännström out of the water offensively, while remaining similar defensively (despite Reilly playing much heavier defensive minutes). Brännström has not been at least as good as him. Sens fans are upset with Smith because there were rumours that DJ simply doesn't like Bränn, and because Sens fans want the entire roster to be under the age of 25. They labeled Reilly as public enemy number 1 from the very start and decided that he needed to go, not realizing that he's actually been pretty good. Additionally, it's less of a Reilly vs Brännström battle and more of a Coburn vs Brännström battle, as Coburn was the one who got games while Erik was scratched.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 5 at 2:46
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I reckon that the TOP15-20 of the centers won't be moved for an offer as such, but everyone behind that are very close.

Brown is a bust, but Brännström is still looking very potential. Not exactly his fault if Smith doesn't like the guy. In terms of level he should easily be the 2nd pair D in Ottawa, but instead he trusts the position to players like Reilly and Wolanin, and the results are showing.</div></div>

Yeesh, probably don't follow the Sens much, eh?

Wolanin's a trainwreck, that much is true. He's awful defensively and he hasn't done anything right offensively. Surprisingly though, Reilly is actually incredibly effective and the stats all back it up. Even more so since being placed with Zub. Some fans may want to convince you he's the whipping boy because their head's in the sand, but he's actually been good. Conversely, Brännström is poor defensively <em>and</em> hasn't been doing as well offensively as you'd expect from someone who should in theory be a strong puck carrier. He's electric on the powerplay though, so he's got that going for him. Drw4209 was right, Brännström at this point is nothing more than a bottom pair PP specialist, and he belongs nowhere close to Ottawa's 2nd pair. They'd be worse off because of it. People can pretend like he's good because he was the return for Mark Stone because it makes them feel better, but no. That's not the case.

Brown is far from a bust though. You've got the players mixed up. It's not <em>his</em> fault that Smith doesn't like the guy. He's the one that should probably be on the 2nd line in Ottawa but won't because DJ (an assistant coach hired to do a head coach's job) wants him to play like a grinder.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 5 at 2:30
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 4 at 6:58
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sabres_Insider</b></div><div>I’m personally pretty high on Patrick. Maybe a team where he gets a bigger role will allow him to grow into a Sam Reinhart type of 2nd overall pick</div></div>

I don't disagree with that, we're just already witnessing Colin White put up 11 in 21 (0.52 PPG) this year and spectacular advanced metrics while playing with Nick Paul (0.40 PPG) and Evgeni Dadonov (0.36 PPG) and only getting minutes on PP2 on one of the worst teams in the league. Reinhart is a 0.65 PPG player throughout his career playing much of his time with Eichel. If White gets an upgrade on his linemates as the Sens roster improves, who's to say he can't grow into that player on his own? It's probably about as likely as hoping for Patrick to stay healthy and develop into a strong 2C.

For that reason, the Sens would be better off keeping White and developing him into that Reinhart-esque two-way player and drafting with those two picks (or trading them for another player; Devon Toews was acquired with two 2nds and would drastically improve the Sens blueline) than they would be acquiring a player who's just as likely to end up on the LTIR. If they were interested in Patrick, which I think they have many reasons to be, it shouldn't be at the cost of a player who offers similar upside because of the health setbacks that Nolan has endured.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sabres_Insider</b></div><div>Would batherson be moveable? I don’t think ott would do that</div></div>

Batherson is likely as untouchable as Stützle, Tkachuk and Chabot at this point, unless it's for a piece like Eichel.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 4 at 6:38
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 3 at 3:07
Thread: 2021-22 sens
Wowzas lots to say.

Virtanen is not a good asset and is a bad pickup. He's arguably not even worth a waiver pick up at this point, depending on your view of him. He also won't get ahead of Batherson, C. Brown, Dadonov, or White on the right side so he's out. No go. Gaudette has also taken a massive step back and it's just not worth the rest of the package to take that risk. Brown is still a really talented player and adding a 2nd to him isn't worth Gaudette, especially if he's going to only be a 4C on the team. That's just not a good deal in any way. Ottawa declines.

Ekholm is worth way more. He's a top pairing D that's caught lower because Nashville has Josi. They aren't going to be very interested in Tierney (they have plenty of middle 6 centers, and they pay them $8M oops), and Abramov is the only other valuable piece. That's just nowhere close to enough for Nashville. Nashville declines.

Beyond that, RNH is getting more, R. Murray won't come to Ottawa to play 3rd pairing, and Mike Reilly is not a RD. Reilly will also never play above Artem Zub in that spot, who is Ottawa's second best D (if not best D on some nights). Furthermore, Bernier will command more after how strong he has played for Detroit, but Ottawa sees Daccord as the future and will be shifting the backup position to him this season if it isn't already his. A Melnyk-run team will not pay that much to a 4th line, Virtanen is a replacement level player, not a 3rd liner, Nick Paul hasn't played center in years, and Dzingel is unlikely to be a longterm member of the team since they have younger pieces they'd like to add (like Pinto and Formenton).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 2 at 3:00