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Cody_Eakin

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Apr. 23, 2021
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Buffalo Sabres
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2023 at 12:02 a.m.
Thread: Sabres Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>If he was 23, 13th overall wouldn't even come close for Pesce.

Pesce has been a core piece of a cup-caliber team for half a decade. Defensive studs like Pesce are more difficult to replace than offensive ones, especially those who shoot right-handed. A 28 year old RHD who is one of the best in the league in his own zone is a pretty damn good piece that could be available. 13th overall is going to be the starting point from Buffalo, because plenty of other teams will be interested in Pesce</div></div>

Lol be realistic. We've had guys way better than Pesce get traded. Dougie Hamilton got traded for the 15th pick + 2 2nds. He was 22 and could also play on the top PP.

You're completely ignoring the fact that he's a rental. He's turning 29 at the start of the season. Would likely want a long term deal extending him way into his 30s.

"13th overall is going to be the starting point from Buffalo" No 13th overall pick is a wet dream for Canes fans. Not a starting point. Especially in a draft like this.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 19, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.
Thread: Who knows
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>Lol no he didnt, he said that oct 5 2020

Eichel was dealt Nov. 2021 (after the locker room interview O'reilly style)

Its not anything specific he said, its reading between the lines. And if you listen to media availabilities for GMs that actually do s***, they all take responsibility and offer concrete answers on what they will address. Thats not the same as actively saying " I want this guy" or "this guy sucks" but its a far cry from "I think this sub 870 goalie is our future (UPL) and Okposo will be here till death do us part" .</div></div>

Adams has mentioned it multiple times during that summer. Not just on one date. I don't think he was ever clear with his intentions until after the season started. Downplayed it the entire time. Everything came from Eichel's camp.

It's not reading between the lines. It's freaking out over nothing. It reminds me of Bills fans freaking out when Beane said he wasn't planning anything big in the off season. The same off season we signed Von Miller.

"And if you listen to media availabilities for GMs that actually do s***, they all take responsibility and offer concrete answers on what they will address." Adams &amp; Granato plan has been crystal clear this whole time. This is the best season in 10 years fielding a bunch of kids. A stocked pool of prospects &amp; promising young players. You are getting mad because a GM said he liked our young goalie and was interested in our CAPTAIN coming back. Jeez.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 5:50 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>I know plenty about the player. I like the player. Hell, I advocated trading for him before he ever debuted in the NHL. I said more than once he could very well make good on the contract. None of that changes the fact that he is not yet a bona fide NHL top 4 defenseman just because he played less than half a season with spotty results in the top 4 of a bottom tier defense stable. OBVIOUSLY. When he can ably play, for gosh at least one full season, in the top 4 of, say, 25 teams or more, THEN we can say he's "a top 4 Dman".

Meanwhile, you imagine 140 minutes of 5v5 play with Sandin (20 games, huh?) means he's practically halfway to being a top pairing guy. Somehow. Against all reason and fact. But sure, the guy saying entirely reasonable, glaringly obvious things is arguing in bad faith...</div></div>

That's the thing. I never said "bonafide" you just keep repeating it. You just misrepresent arguments instead of addressing what I actually said. I said he played in the top 4 this season and on the top pair with Dahlin at the end. That is true. You said he was on the 3rd pair with Bryson &amp; Fitz all of those minutes. That was completely false. You get caught being wrong &amp; just move on to the next argument. That's acting in bad faith.

If you knew plenty about the player you'd know his ceiling is much higher than a 4th d man lmao. The role that he's already playing in.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 11:02 a.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ColonelX</b></div><div>Long time I haven't seen a Chayka's special, we'll see how this one turns out.
If he hits his 2LD ceiling the contract isn't even much of a bargain (more like going rate than anything else) so I don't see the upside considering they'll have other dman to spend money on soon.</div></div>

His 2LD ceiling when he's already been playing top pair LD? It's funny how people in here are so clueless about a player. It's fine to not know about a player, but at least do some research before commenting about it.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChrisNapoleon</b></div><div>Somehow worse than the Andrew Ladd contract...</div></div>

Yea a 22 year old 6'4 defenceman with great defensive metrics is similar to a 31 year old power forward FA.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Personally? If he doesn't take a step up, he's overpaid. And his defensive numbers away from the top pair were abysmal - go check out his sub-40% CF/SF and 8-27 GF-GA numbers when he was with Casey Fitzgerald last season if you think I'm just making things up. He put up better numbers with Dahlin, but to me that doesn't scream "top pair guy", it just says he's able to keep up with a superior player while not being able to make a lesser player better. That's fine! There are tons of players like that, and it doesn't mean he's not a top-4 player. I just don't think he's a slam dunk top pair guy that's going to make this deal look like a steal.

If you want a little more to back that up, I think one of his better comps is Jonas Siegenthaler - both defensive LHD, similarly sized players, and Siegenthaler is only 3 years older and signed his extension 10 weeks ago.

Sieganthaler put up better even strength possession numbers (51.2 vs 47.6 CF, 51.0 vs. 47.3 Fenwick) with similar PDOs (so can't say one was bailed out by better goaltending), and was better at preventing goals when he was on the ice shorthanded (7.2 GA/60 vs. 8.1 for Samuelsson), while having a little over 2 seasons worth of NHL games to judge his game on. He just signed for 5x$3.4M - so the Sabres gave more term and more AAV in this deal today.

Again, my point is that it's not that Samuelsson is going to be a bum, or not live up to the deal, or whatever. It's just that it doesn't make a ton of sense to hand out this deal right now when there is very little I could picture Samuelsson doing that would push his value *higher* than this. He's most likely a middle-pair guy going forward and this is a higher-end middle pair AAV.</div></div>

Raw numbers are not a good way of evaluating a player's defensive game on a bad team. ROR's numbers were bad in Buffalo, despite playing well defensively. You have to look at his isolated impact. He had great numbers.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/LxzAAgA.png" alt="LxzAAgA.png">

The team is much better defensively when he's on the ice.

"If you want a little more to back that up, I think one of his better comps is Jonas Siegenthaler - both defensive LHD, similarly sized players, and Siegenthaler is only 3 years older and signed his extension 10 weeks ago. " Yea that's another good example. I think Samuelsson has a bit more offensive upside though.

I think the contract will either be fair value or a steal. A top 4 d man making 4.2M is right around what they should be getting.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>So your comparisons are a guy on LTIR for half his deal and another who was traded away one year into his deal. So how is it a smart money decision again?!</div></div>

Yes, because a player having serious issues with chronic arthritis is predictable in the future lmao. Klefbom's contract was great when he was playing.

Marino's contract is fair value. Getting 4.4M for a top 4 defensive d man is fair.

The cap is also going to skyrocket in the next few years. A 4.2M contract will look like a 3.5M contract the 3rd year of his deal. Paying 3.5M for a top 4 dman is great value. A huge steal if he becomes elite defensively.

You continue to embarrass yourself.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Samuelsson being a $7M player in 2026-27 is probably the top 25% of outcomes if we're being generous - not saying that he's a bum, but that I could easily sit here and find 3 guys who flamed out after a good half-season for every defensive Dman you could bring up that wound up being a $7M player by the end of his RFA years.

And to be fair, if you're assuming he bridges at around 3x$2.5M, most of the savings you're talking about in 2026-27 are going to be wiped out by the fact that you're overpaying him by about $2M from 23-24 through 25-26.</div></div>

The cap is going up nearly 20M in that time. Contracts are going to jump like crazy. At that time his deal would be comparable to a 3.5M deal today, which would be pretty close to his bridge amount. Near the end of his deal it would be close to 2.5M for a top 4 defensive d man.

Guys like Cernak already got 5.2M and that's before the cap has even jumped. You will start to see defensive guys getting 6M-7M pretty soon.

He's playing top pair, has strong defensive results, and this contract would put him 71st highest paid d man. Do you think that's an overpay or fair for what he brings currently?
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 1:02 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>Islanders were thinking they needed to overpay to keep him off free agency after, surprise surprise, a bridge contract of 4x1.6M.

Keep your comparables coming, it just shows how ridiculous Samuelson's contract is because he doesn't have statss and/or milleage...</div></div>

How are you missing the point this bad?

I'm not even comparing Pelech to Samuelsson. I'm showing how dumb it is to evaluate a defensive d man with points, which you were doing. You just commented on a player without knowing anything about them and continue to double down.

An actual comparison would be Oscar Klefbom 7 years 4.1M after 77 games &amp; John Marino 6 years 4.4M after 52 games
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 12, 2022 at 12:56 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Mattias Samuelsson (7 Years / $4,285,714 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>Here's the big difference: Pelech had played in almost as many *playoff games* as Samuelsson has regular-season games when he signed his big extension. He had basically 4 seasons worth of games backing up the analytics that said he was a top-tier, shutdown defenseman.

Samuelsson has half a season showing that, with some pretty bad numbers on the PK(not great for a DFD). It's not saying he can't live up to it, just that it's a huge risk - and acting like everyone who's tugging at their collar over giving a guy like that $30M is a "casual" is being a bit defensive.

My own opinion is that this is a bit premature - he's a defensive defenseman. What could he have done this season that would've put this contract out of reach for the Sabres? Everything in his junior/professional career shows that he's probably a 20-25 point guy at his peak who can shut down another team's top line. Guys like that usually don't get paid much more than Pelech's deal, which is only about $1.5M more than what the Sabres gave Samuelsson. I don't think the Sabres would have cost themselves a more expensive contract extension by waiting to see if he could make the leap this season.</div></div>

I'm not comparing Pelech to Samuelsson. One was 27 when he got his contract and the other is 22. I'm showing how stupid it is to evaluate a defensive d man by points.

"and acting like everyone who's tugging at their collar over giving a guy like that $30M is a "casual" is being a bit defensive." No, but not knowing anything about the player and giving takes is. If you're looking at point totals for a defensive d man it's very clear the person is clueless when it comes to the player. Just like someone bringing up point totals for Pelech is certainly a casual.

If we gave him a 3 year bridge the cap would be about 95M-100M at the end of that deal. If Samuelsson is still playing on the top pair with good results that would likely be 7M+. This contract could have potentially saved the team 3M per year at that time.