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DReedy14

D. Reedy
Member Since
Jan. 9, 2020
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San Jose Sharks
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2023 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread: Call me Sonny Weaver
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MitchMafia</b></div><div>Another ridiculous Murray to Sharks / Leafs get fleeced trade. I get when you’re a fan of the Sharks (no hope of playoffs soon) that the off season is more exciting than playing season but still…leafs aren’t spending a first to dump one year of Murray. He’s either hurt (LTIR) or he’s not and he’s a perfectly capable nhl goalie (of which there are too few)</div></div>

I get when you're a fan of the Leafs (no hope of actually moving past the second round) that the offseason is more exciting when you can talk s***. We can too, y'all are the Knicks of the NHL, lots of talk and media coverage but very little actual success. No, my team hasn't won a cup, but yours hasn't since there were only six teams. SIX. More than half a century, in a massive market with plenty of free-agent appeal and you guys have as many Cups as the Atlanta Thrashers.

It's a low first, so what would you say is a fair cap dump price for Murray? If not a first, then what? I see a team that doesn't have much cap room but needs to make a move. Trading Nylander isn't a good idea unless you're getting a player of equal value for less money, which isn't likely. Same goes for Marner. No one is giving you equal value for JT given his contract. No reason to move AM. Maybe you try and switch up the defense but I doubt you can convince Reilly to waive after he signed such a long deal. You could move Brodie out, but is the added cap room for trading him for a cheaper top-4 D going to clear enough room to add an impact player and replace Bunting? Probably not. I'm sure O'Reilly gives you a nice hometown discount, but who else will you keep at under $2 mil. You have $14 mil in space and need to fill seven forward spots. Are you ready to run it back again with the same team but maybe a different goalie? I'm sure the TOR faithful would be thrilled by that idea...
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2023 at 4:04 p.m.
Thread: Call me Sonny Weaver
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>glarson17</b></div><div>Why is San Jose potentially paying 4 1sts and a 2nd for 7? That’s absurd</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>This draft is so deep and I feel we can get impact players into the 2nd round and I would rather have 3 1sts 2 2nds and 5 tries to get hopefully 4 NHLer a and 2 plus players vs 1 chance on an albeit star potential player.</div></div>

In average draft years that might be absurd but my reasoning is that this is a unique opportunity because Michkov is a way, way better prospect than who is usually taken in the No. 6-8 range. If he wasn't Russian and under contract for three more seasons, he'd go No. 2. His talent is regarded as being better than most No. 1 overall picks. The Sharks need quality more than quantity. Michkov has risk, which is why he'll slide a bit, but he's not making it past WSH at No. 8. His comparison is Kucherov or Kaprizov, a superstar who can carry a top line from the wing.

In order for this to work, the offer has to be so good that you convince AZ or PHI to move out of the top 10 when they need high-end talent too. It has to be a proposal that's egregious enough for them to actually accept. Getting Michkov, while still filling the Sharks top need of a C1 prospect, would be a huge win on draft day.

Thank you both for your comments, the whole point of this site's tool is for fun and discussion so I appreciate the alternative viewpoints.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2023 at 9:26 p.m.
Thread: Call me Sonny Weaver
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>Rather have Perrault Tom Willander &amp; Lohen Zeimmer plus the 2nds than Michkov</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Waffelz</b></div><div>I don't know if I make that last trade as the Sharks, that's a ton of assets to give up on a risky pick. The first 2 I would definitely do, though.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jfkst1</b></div><div>It's an insane amount of picks to give up for one player. Michov would need to be amazing to justify that.</div></div>

Good points. With this loaded of a draft, those picks in the 20s could very well end up legit middle-six forwards. There is such a massive group of talented guys who could go anywhere between like No. 8 and No. 28 that this would be insanely risky and maybe even stupid.

However, my thinking with this is that the Sharks have plenty of middle-six forward prospects (quantity) but lack truly high-potential prospects. Michkov fits that bill. He's looking like he could truly be a game-breaking talent. There's obviously risk with his contract status, being Russian, and whether or not he wants to leave to play in SJ. But if they can leave this draft with a new No. 1 center prospect AND an elite winger, I think that's worth giving away all those hypothetical picks. With Smith and Michkov, we could be looking at a Brayden Point/Nikita Kucherov combo.

I also think an overpay value-wise would be required to get AZ or PHI (or even WSH) to move down in the draft, given their need for high-end talent.

Also, thank you for your inputs. I appreciate the discussion!
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2023 at 11:47 p.m.
Thread: Sammy Meier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NotDougWilson</b></div><div>I've noticed that Devils ACGMs have been more lenient on their trades than Sabres ACGMs. I understand why, they don't have to make a move with such a loaded prospect pool. But, it's not very often they can get in on an elite winger like Meier. Their top 6 would be Stanley Cup caliber as soon as next year.</div></div>

I think I've seen about the same types of offers from BUF and NJ fans. It's basically variations of the same value -- and always short of what the price should be for a point-per-game winger at his age.

At the end of the day, I just hope Grier doesn't panic and take a less than excellent deal. I don't think there should be much rush to trade Meier. There's still plenty of time before the deadline AND they don't even have to move him. I really, really want more than what a lot of these trades appear to be: A first-line forward (Eklund) + a mid-twenties middle-six forward + late first. That, to me, doesn't come to close to the value Meier provides. I don't care that these deals rarely produce a prospect who equals the star (such as the O'Reilly to STL for Thompson and more), I would rather them re-sign Meier because he's young enough to still be good once the Sharks have the potential to be competitive again. I'd rather have a star winger still in his 20s ready to go with Bedard/Fantilli/Carlson/etc. in a couple of years.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2023 at 8:15 p.m.
Thread: Holtz for Meier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Devsfan25</b></div><div>Holtz and Nemec? Is that a joke? Nemec in untouchable and if he were to be moved, the trade would be 1 for 1. Holtz, Sharangovich, 2023 1st, 2024 3rd for Meier and Bonino</div></div>

Not joking, but as I said, I'm sure y'all are opposed becaus Nemec plus Holtz would be more than Meier's value -- which I already consider quite high. But I just don't see a reason to give up Meier for Holtz (who, while being a very good prospect, still is very unlikely to reach Meier's level) + the usual package of young third-line winger and a late first. Late firsts usually churn out third-line players (if that). Sharangovich, who I see value in, will never be more than a supporting second-line winger. If Holtz hits and becomes a first-line goal scorer, then great, but that's not as historically likely as people often think.

I don't think it's one-for-one. No matter how good Nemec is/will be, he's not a can't-miss (almost no such thing) and defensemen usually take a while to develop. Maybe Nemec plus the late first (and dump Johnsson) to SJ for Meier (50% retained) and Bonino. If I'm building a franchise to win Cups, I would focus on acquiring/keeping elite talent. You can always find role players in the middle rounds of drafts and in free agency. Always. What you can't find easily are top-line/pairing players. Meier is one. So, with the benefit of his qualifying offer in my back pocket, Grier has some leverage and doesn't need to rush a trade. He has 12 months to trade Meier if he wants. With that in mind, and with Meier now the top talent on the market, Grier should be holding out for a haul. The worst case scenario is they don't get a massive package of assets and they trade him next year -- or just re-sign him. My hope is, with how many ludicrous trades real NHL GMs make, that Grier will be patient. Holtz + Nemec for Meier is too much but it's not nearly as one-sided as trading Huberdeau, Weeger, a first, and change for Tkachuk. And the Panthers are rightly suffering for that.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2023 at 6:40 p.m.
Thread: Holtz for Meier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Because we don’t have to. We have plenty of other assets.

Also…while it’s early to call Wahlstrom a flop, I don’t think he ever had a golden shot like Holtz.</div></div>

But <a href="/users/csick" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@csick</a> is right. He's an 80-point forward. He's 26. He can create his own scoring chances and converts them. That's extremely valuable. Unlike many other high-scoring wingers, he's not a product of the system or talent around him. Meier is legit. The cost to acquire him should be very high because that's his value.

I'm sure y'all are opposed, but I want to hear what you think of Nemec + Holtz (with the assumption that Meier would sign an extension upon arrival). While Holtz sounds like he'll pan out to be a true top-6 wing, historically, less than 18% of players who are drafted between picks 6 and 10 end up even close to how good Meier is now. If the Devils believe they have a legit shot at the cup this year and next year, who is helping them more, Meier? Or Nemec and Holtz? Easy, it's Meier. I understand the value of Nemec and Holtz, but neither are likely to be true key pieces (top6F/top4D) next year, let alone for this playoff run. The Devils would still have Luke Hughes on the way. Maybe the Sharks send Bonino and/or Reimer if NJ wants them as well. The Sharks should expect to take back Johnsson to make the money work (or another cap dump).
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2023 at 6:27 p.m.
Thread: 23-24 Leafs with Meier
I would be appalled if the Sharks accepted that Meier offer. Swap Nick Robertson for Hirvonen and add a second first-rounder then maybe, but that's still a lot of underwhelming assets for a 26-year-old, first-line sniper. Low first-round picks are often projected to be good third-line players. Knies sounds a lot like Lawson Crowse, a third-liner who's scoring goals this year thanks to an unsustainable shooting percentage and plenty of opportunity playing on a bottom feeder. Robertson has some potential but really hasn't done much yet and hasn't been good enough to stay in the lineup. None of that is very exciting for a team that has plenty of quantity but would need A-level assets to trade such a valuable player. I just don't think a Meier trade to TOR works. They're probably better off going after O'Reilly...
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2023 at 6:11 p.m.
Thread: My ideal TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CheechYou</b></div><div>I wouldn't trade Barabanov unless it were for the equivalent of a 1st or more. He's such a key player for the Sharks and they would miss his play so, so much. I desperately hope Grier sees things the same way and holds on to him barring a massive overpay.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sleeparc</b></div><div>Barabanov alone is worth that trade. Don't think he'd agree to go back to Toronto anyway. He has a 10-team no trade list and I guarantee Toronto is on it.</div></div>

What??? A first? For an offensive winger who's really a third-line winger for a good team? The best-case scenario is he's a Janmark or Jarnkrok, who both were swapped at the deadline for third-round picks I believe. If you were running the Sharks when they were a contender, would you really want your team to trade a first-round pick (albeit a low one considering the expectation of progressing in the playoffs) for a Barabonov? He's is definitely replaceable in the offseason. By the time the Sharks are good again, Barabonov won't be a key player. He's just a guy who is quick and skilled enough to keep up with good players and not be a hindrance to offense.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Meier and a D-Man
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>worldwidesensei</b></div><div>What makes you say that?

Meier played in the Q, a league that is notorious for high scoring, and the most points he had was 90.
Savoie had 90 last year and is on pace for 89 this year.

Both were drafted #9OA.

Savoie &lt;&gt; Meier straight up is a fair deal. I don't wanna give up more than that. Maybe I would give you a 2nd on top.</div></div>

Why would a team trade a true first-line forward for just a top-6 forward prospect? Even if both parties like Savoie to become a first-line forward, there is a lot more value in a 26-year-old first-liner than a 19-year-old prospect who might become one. Going into last season, would you have traded Alex Tuch for William Eklund? Of course not. The value of a young player who is already producing as a first-liner is much, much higher than a guy who might be as good as him one day.

And I wasn't knocking Savoie, just looking at historical stats of how many prospects actually end up as point-per-game players and it's not as common as you might think, even for guys picked in the top-10 of drafts. According to Byron Bader's (Hockey Prospecting) study, only about 18% of players drafted with picks 6-10 in the NHL draft turn out to be "star" players (forwards who produce 0.7 or more points per game, 0.45 for Dmen). While I don't like using the term "star" so loosely, the truth remains that while Savoie and many other guys have the talent to be high draft picks, many of them just don't end up stars at the NHL level. For every Meier, there are several Pavel Zachas and Brett Connleys.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2023 at 6:17 p.m.
Thread: Should NJD go all in
Meier's QO is $10 million, meaning if he doesn't sign his extension, a team that wants to retain his rights would need to offer him more than that. But my guess is that if a team is going to pay the haul of assets to get Meier, their plan is to sign him to an extension (probably in the $8-9 mil/year range).

That said, the Sharks can QO him this summer. They don't need to trade him now, they have leverage (although trading him now helps tank for this draft). That said, and this is directed at every ACGM here who wants to send him to NJ for Holtz and a 1st, the Sharks better not trade Meier for just that. Holtz projects as a legit top-6 winger (one-year of progress ahead of Eklund) and that first-rounder will be late. That value isn't close to a 26-year-old, first-line, elite goal-scorer who doesn't have injury concerns.

However, I like the Gurianov idea. While that might be steep for Dallas, there are always teams that will dump overpaid wingers who are still young (like him) to clear cap space even though those players might just need a change of scenery, like Kubalik is enjoying in Detroit after CHI declined to re-sign him.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2023 at 6:03 p.m.
Thread: SJ Retooled Cup Contending Team After Meier to NJD Landing Bedard Signing Pasta
I think NJ gives up Holtz or even Nemec before Mercer. The Devils are a contender right now so they shouldn't trade pieces that are already producing. That said, I want a hell of a lot more than a young middle-six forward with potential + a mid level Dman prospect + a late first-rounder.

Maybe I'm dreaming but I want Nemec + Holtz for Meier.

I'd be surprised if Pasta left Boston but I'd be even more shocked if he wanted to go to SJ. That'd be way, way more of a surprise than Gaudreau choosing Columbus. Why would he want to join a rebuilding team in a small, non-traditional market, leaving Boston where he has thrived and has talent around him with legit chances at a Cup the next two years? The Bruins won't let him leave, not matter what dollar figure he wants.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.
Thread: Sabres
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MayDay19</b></div><div>So we give away 5 1st round picks and our top goalie prospect for Sorokin and Meier? Hell no.</div></div>

BUF would be giving up five first-rounders, except Middlestadt's value isn't a first-round pick (it's not our fault BUF picked him over Norris/Necas/etc). And you'd be giving up a lot of prospective value for a true first-line sniper who is still just 26, and a top-5 goalie who is only 27. No matter how good you think Savoie, Rosen or Levi will be, it's statistically unlikely any of them will be as good as Meier and Sorokin.
However, I think San Jose would want more than Middlestadt as the third piece with Savoie and the '23 first. Throw in some other NHLer to make the money work but fair long-term value would need another prospect in that trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2023 at 5:44 p.m.
Thread: Tim Murray is back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldBoisClubSandwich</b></div><div>Portillo will be a UFA after next year and choose his team

The problem with all these Chych for 2 1sts + top d prospect trades [which yours isn't even] is that Zona doesn't replace his value either way in their timeline to rebuild. They will most likely have a really nice playoff team next year and an even better team in '25 with or without Matthews for a cup run because they'll have Bedard/Fant/top tier C with their other blue chip forwards. Chych + Ghost have been a league leading top pair playing on a shallow team. Yotes should resign and keep that top pair nice n cheap with Vej 1G and ELCs Bedard, Cooley, Guenther, Geekie. They can spend to the cap and have in the past when the team was better. If you disagree, put the actual future team together and see for yourself.

This and most other offers don't replace his value in that equation. He most likely isn't traded and they both will be happy by the end of his deal about it... most likely.</div></div>

Wait, you think the Coyotes are going to make the playoffs next year? Or even the following season? Are you crazy? Even if their '23 pick + Cooley + Guenther all develop super quickly, and Keller stays healthy, and they keep Chychrun, and somehow convince a good UFA to come play in Arizona, that team isn't sniffing the playoffs. I get having optimism but what team has rebuilt that quickly? Even if you think Bedard will immediately be a superstar like McDavid, the Oilers already had Draisaitl and Hall (before trading him).

Regarding the Meier trade: I don't think this is far off from a fair swap. On the surface and by straight-up value, I think it's pretty even, but the Sharks have to want more than a young but third-line center + a decent Dman prospect a mid-range 1st, and two 2nds. With so much quantity in the system, the Sharks really need more quality. I think if it's Buffalo, the Sharks would want something like:

Meier to Buffalo for a 2023 first + M. Savoie + JJ Peterka or Ostlund + a mid-round pick or throw in prospect

Personally, I hope they bring in a young/prospect defenseman. Samuelsson would be great for SJ to add but if I were Buffalo, I wouldn't move him or anyone else who is already helping them at the NHL level.