Danny12357

Member Since
Jul 12, 2018
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
2nd Favourite Team
Washington Capitals
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166
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0.23
Forum Threads
2
Forum: NHL SigningsMay 7 at 12:14
Thread: Boston Bruins signed Jaroslav Halák (1 Year / $3,500,000 AAV)
The Bruins are an aging but excellent team, and the last few seasons having a tandem has really helped them a lot. A one year deal on a guy who has consistently been one of the better backup/1A goalies seems like a great bet. The performance bonus allows them to push that part of the cap hit to another year if needed.

Overally Halak is a 35+ goalie, and he will almost certainly make $3.5M in total against the cap, so I don't think it's an insane steal. Maybe he could have gotten 2 years or maybe pushed it to $4M, but overally I think he took a bit of a gamble on trying to win it with a great team, and that team figured out a way to keep him while paying him relatively fairly, so it seems like a great deal no matter how you slice it.

Boston has some contracts that have aged insanely well that allows them to overspend a little in goal, and given the age of this team, I think a tandem is a great way to capitalize on their current roster. There will almost certainly be several teams next year that have less money committed in goal and will probably get better overall performance, but two good goalies just makes it less likely that a rough year from a goaltender is what sinks them, and when a team's core is getting a little older, you really don't want to write off seasons because of a rough year in goal.

Overall, I think the AAV is fine, performance bonus helps, term is ideal.
Forum: NHL SigningsApr 17 at 9:50
Thread: St. Louis Blues signed Marco Scandella (4 Years / $3,275,000 AAV)
If this was 2 or 3 years for this player, I think it would think it was solid for a team needing to add a guy to round out their top 4, and that 4th year really wouldn't be all that bad.

However given the uncertainty over the cap, and the fact that this likely all but guarantees St. Louis is going to be weaker next year in some way, I don't think this was all that smart of a signing right now.

The Blues don't have a lot of easy to move contracts if the cap stays flat or comes down. The contracts they would like to move are likely Faulk, Steen, Allen or even Schenn's (despite a good season, his age and cap hit and term don't look great for that signing). None of those will be easy to move with the level of uncertainty and potential for a very short "offseason".

So that means this team is likely selling low on value contracts, or just letting Petro walk. Either will be a pretty big step back.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb 25 at 10:45
Thread: (NYR/CAR) - Skjei for a 2020 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tormundgiantsbane</b></div><div>I don't see lottery protections in the conditions... IMAGINE both Toronto and Carolina miss the playoffs and both picks win lottery spots haha.</div></div>

The conditions are where this could get really fun.

The condition is that Carolina has to give the Rangers a pick in this year's draft, but can give them the lower of the two between their own and Toronto's. However Toronto can defer their pick until next year if the pick ends up being top 10.

So I wonder what happens if Carolina misses and wins the lottery, and Toronto misses and finishes with a the 10th overall pick. I know it isn't likely, but then Toronto could choose to defer. If they defer, Carolina now has only one pick to offer the Rangers. I wonder if a side deal would then be possible. Carolina could want to offer something to Toronto to convince them not to defer and the Rangers could offer something to Toronto to force them to defer so they could get the lottery pick. I don't know if that's the way it would work, but I wonder if there is any language in the actual contract or CBA that would prevent something like that from happening.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb 25 at 10:37
Thread: (VGK/CHI/TOR) - Subban, Demin for Lehner for Dzierkals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Looks like it was 1.1m retained, atleast how it shows on our cap. We are also using ltir so the benefits of pro rated salary aren’t There. AAlso a good way to open up relationships with western teams for trading further on down the road.

I see what happened. Chicago retained 50% and leafs retained another 50%.</div></div>

It was about 44% of the 50% that wasn't already retained. It was an overly complicated deal, but basically amounts to $180k in real cash for a 5th round pick. Once the Leafs decided to make no other trades, the cap space was just going to sit there. They had no other way to use it. It's about paying cash for a pick.

I don't know how much a 5th should be worth, but the cap space ends up essentially irrelevant, since it just expires at the end of the year.
Forum: NHL SigningsFeb 25 at 10:07
Thread: New York Islanders signed Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
That is a lot of assets and a big gamble of a deal on this player.

$5M, or more importantly, 6% of your cap space always seems like a weird amount. If the player is a bonafide top 6 guy, it's probably a steal, if not, it's an overpay. Centers are a bit of the exception, as I can see merit in having a third line center paid more than a typical bottom six forward, but that's usually accompanied by a team playing a good complimentary winger in their top 6, who is making far less than typical top 6 players, which helps offset the cost.

I like Pageau, but I think he just got paid as if he's a 25 goal scoring center. He likely isn't. This year, he's been force fed insane amounts of minutes, and he's scoring on an absurdly high percentage of his shots. He isn't creating near enough offense to make anyone believe this is just who he is now. Also, I am never a fan of giving a player you expect to play in your bottom six a term longer than 4 years. It's not just about age, but a 6 year term is very inflexible in terms of shaking things up if things don't work out. If Pageau isn't everything the Isles hope he is, that cap hit with that 6 year term becomes an anchor. The problem is, they are essentially paying him as if he is going to play at his ceiling for the next 6 years, and I think that's a tall ask.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb 25 at 9:25
Thread: (VGK/CHI/TOR) - Subban, Demin for Lehner for Dzierkals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>What's going on here? Toronto paid a first and a second for Freddie Andersen, and now Las Vegas is paying a similar second and Malcolm Subban for Robin Lehner? And since when is a fifth-round draft pick sufficient compensation for retaining $2.5 MM?</div></div>

The Leafs are retaining $1.1M in cap space, but that isn't really relevant. They paid about 180k in cash for a 5th. They aren't using all of their cap space this year.

Lehner is likely a pure rental for Vegas. Freddy was a 26 year old RFA who signed a 5 year extension. Also, the 1st Toronto gave up was already set, and it was the 30th selection, it wasn't much more valuable than a mid 2nd.

It seems like you really like to try and throw anything negative back at anything the Leafs do, but with so much ammunition to choose from, this is a a massive reach.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb 24 at 5:10
Thread: (SJS/TBL) - Goodrow and 2020 3rd for Greco and 2020 1st
I didn't mind the Coleman deal, he is a better player, but this is a bit much considering what they already have done.

I know this is also about replacing whoever it is they need to trade in the offseason, but chucking away two firsts in this draft is a lot for 3rd line players.

Also, Tampa is currently has just over $76M spent for next season, with Cirelli and Cernak as well as some depth pieces to sign. Obviously they plan to move out some salary, but who?

Palat should get a decent return except he is the guy they would most like to keep out of their seconadary players, and has a full NTC which will hurt his value. Johnson, Gourde and Kilorn wouldn't necessarily be easy to move if you could negotiate with all 31 teams, but with full NTCs I can't see how they move them without adding sweetners. I am not saying they have negative value per se, but when you can only deal with a few teams they are willing to accept a trade to, I can't see that GM knowing Tampa is in a tough spot just doign them a favour.
Forum: NHL SigningsFeb 24 at 4:59
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Jake Muzzin (4 Years / $5,625,000 AAV)
This is close in terms of value over a 4 year term. Muzzin will probably provide value pretty much in line with where he is being paid. Likely able to be even better in years 1-2 with being a little over paid in years 3-4.

Where I think the Leafs did pretty well is not having to overpay in term or dollars for a D who kind of fits every teams ideal 2nd pairing guy. Some grit, some toughness, moves the puck well, plays both ends well, some leadership. Those players that the old school and analytics crowds like equally are usually destined to be overpaid.

What could make this deal better will depend on structure. If the NTC terms aren't bad in years 3-4 and he is making less in cash than cap hit, the Leafs could very well have a D that will probably be worth more than his cap hit early in the deal, and actually trade him for positive value at the end.

There is still a bit of a gamble, they are signing a 30+ player for four years and paying him in a way where he needs to be at least your 3rd best D, but I think with the teams needs, and the way this type of player will get valued league wide, this is pretty solid.