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DarthBriggles

Hockey Fan First
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 16 at 8:44 a.m.
Thread: 2025
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2023 at 2:13 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2023 at 2:10 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Murray's a stone that costs too much woll and voit are just ok prospects at best and saros is one of the best goalies in hockey,kerfoot a ufa no value to Nashville, if you took your head out of your leafs bubble youd realize you have no idea what your talking about here.</div></div>

While I am a Leafs fan I am a Hockey fan first and I have a LOT of experience when it comes to understanding prospect and trade values. Furthermore I back what I am saying with FACTS and analysis from professional Hockey insiders. Meanwhile, you make baseless blanket assumptions with nothing to back it up.

Your player analysis is off all around. Pretty normal though for most people. They don't really know the value of unfamiliar prospects. There is a reason the Leafs prospects have been so highly ranked since the re-build/Matthews era began. Often it is actually non-leafs Fans that get the evaluation too low due to their prejudice, like you have displayed.

Murrays injury issues are a question mark. But he is still posting a 2.73 GAA this season. His starter status is indeed most likely behind him. But Nashville doesn't need a starter with Lankinen playing the way he has. And they can bury Murray's contract in LTIR if needed.

Woll may have been a "ok" prospect before he came up an has posted a 2.57 GAA, while posting a 2.32 in the AHL so far this season. Normally when Goalies are moving between leagues it hurts their play. This is not the case with Woll so far. All of which has only increased his already blue-chip prospect standing. Pairing him in a competative situation to battle for starting status with Lankinen should improve both goalies and net a very formidable 1, 2, tandem. All while saving money able to be spent on other prospects.

As for Voit. You're brain-dead if you think a 19yr old prospect putting up 80 pts+ in the last two years is "mid level". You need to so some research. Here I'll help you ... assuming you can actually read?

"Voit’s combination of his IQ, playmaking and creativity with the puck is always on display as it’s Mitch Marner-esque." ***see article link below***
https://thehockeywriters.com/maple-leafs-hidden-gem-ty-voit/

https://dobberprospects.com/player/ty-voit/

Saros is WAS one of the best goalies in the NHL. Only 2 issues with that. Nashville's trajectory and his value are in opposition. Making him a much more valuable trade-bait asset right now. His game is being wasted on the team in front of him and he's not young enough to Nashville has made it clear they are in a rebuild mode. Just look at what they have already moved ahead of this years trade deadline. They are clearly stocking the shelves in prospects and draft picks in bulk and quite willing to trade assets to do it. They traded Ekholm for a WHL 40 pts forward prospect a 1st and 4th draft pick, while sending back a 6th. Clearly Murray, Kerfoot, Voit and Woll are more valuable then that combination.

So yeah, your opinion is way off base.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2023 at 5:02 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2023 at 3:08 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 4, 2023 at 10:18 p.m.
If you understand the NHL in even the slightest then you are well aware that almost ANY trade if possible. And fans of any team tend to overvalue the players on their team over looking at the bigger picture. In fact it is very common for teams to make trades their Fans don't like for reasons that their Fans don't understand of consider. Almost ALL of the trades I have put together on this have been mentioned by experts in the NHL media as viable trades.

That said, 99% of the comments I see or have ever gotten on here are just completely idiotic. I honestly wonder if most of you people need reminders to keep breating or is it that you just don't have the first clue when it comes to Hockey.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tbrew</b></div><div>Why would NJ do that?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>that devils trade is horrific for the leafs. Downgrade on goaltending and defence and throw in a real good prospect. Just terrible.</div></div>

Tbrew thinks this is a bad trade for NJ and JaredOfLondon this is a bad trade for TO. Classic example of Fans missing the nuances of the game.

But to answer: Tbrew NJD are a young up and coming team. While they are overachieving this year, and yes they are overachieving. Their focus is to build around their younger (under 24) core players like Hischner and Hughes, Picking up good young prospects is right in their wheelhouse right now. Meanwhile Toronto is all in on making a deep playoff run the next few years.

JaredOfLondon: Toronto needs to make up some cap space to resign key players over the next couple of years. But they also have to go all-in to make deep runs at the playoffs.

So let's look at the trades:

While there is no doubt that Brodie is all around a better player than Graves. Toronto needs to find a way to clear up some cap space. They would also be gaining some much needed toughness and a little bit in terms of age. Overall this part of the trade is slightly in Toronto's favour. Hence they will need to give up something elsewhere.

Murray is the better goalie right now. But Blackwood has a slightly higher potential for upside AND again gains the Leafs some cap space ($2mil) plus a couple years in age. Again this part of the trade is slightly in Toronto's favour. Hence they will need to give up something elsewhere.


Fischer and Bastian are very similar in gamestyle. But Fisher is clearly the better player with a much higher potential. He also has a slightly higher salary. This part of the trade is in New Jersey's favour to make up for the slight deficit in the previous two parts.

This is where Hollowell and Minten come in as part of the trade. Toronto has to make up a bit in the trade for Jersey. Perhaps Hollowell is enough compensation on his own, since he seems to be almost full-time NHL ready. In fact on NJD he should be able to fill in as an option for the 3rd line D on the Right in case of injuries. Either way he give NJD some depth on RD and some upside.

While Minten has a very good potential. It is exactly that, potential. And it might be just that which makes this trade as a whole work. It's enough to put the whole trade probably in NJD's favor, but no guarantee. Meanwhile TO gains much needed cap space, missing team Grit and yet potential upside in a Goalie.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan_the_Man</b></div><div>Yeah TB is selling Cernak of all people this is pure comedy. Thank you I haven't laughed this hard since the last time I saw an almost identical trade.</div></div>

Geez you TB fans are stupid. Yes numbnuts TB would MUST sell to make cap space. Currently they have $700k in cap space and nearly $7 mil sitting on IR. At the end of the year they need to resign Cirelli, Killorn, and Sergachev at the very least. This means they need to make room. Cernak for Holl is not as big downgrade, if any, as most would believe in terms of ability. But this trade does gain age and grit for TO while gaining better two-way play and cap space for TB. In fact it is the age that gives this part of the trade a slight edge to TO that needs to be made up.

While Colton has established himself as a solid 3rd liner. Robinson has a MUCH higher upside to him. This part of the trade is a hands down win for TB with the only possible downside being Robinson's ability to stay healthy. That said he's only 21 compared to Colton's 26, so he buys 5 years of time to get there.

The addition of Niemelä and a 3rd rounder. Make this trade an overall no brainier "Yes" for Tampa. It clears up $3 mil in the Cernak for Holl part and $400k this year plus probably another $1.5 mil over the next couple years in the Colton for Robinson part of this trade. All in all $3.4 to $4.9 mil is not a lot of cap space considering Sergachev alone will be costing TB $3.7 mil more next year. They literally need to make trades like this and more to make that cap room available.

But thanks for the bonehead comment anyway.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 6, 2022 at 10:44 a.m.
Thread: 2023
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsradynasty</b></div><div>thats a very scewed holl cernak comparison so you don't think Colton gets any better ? i'm telling I'd wager a very large sum of money this doesn't get the deal done i think your analysis of holl cernk doesn't take into accountCernaks ability to read and jump in offensively has steadily been improving and TB really doesn't care if it gets any offense from Cernak.</div></div>

In the case of Cernak vs. Holl, I think Cernak is a step up with more defensive upside. Which is what the Leafs need. Tampa gets to fill the right side hole left with a decent 2nd pairing D-man at a $950,000 discount and adding some offensive capability. Tampa still has Myers, and Foote coming up an improving. I think both of them have a similar potential to Cernak. They all have 1-year left. With Tampa's cap issues looming that means something has to give. Holl fits in there well and gives some cap relief.

I never said I don't think Colton gets better. I'm counting on it. All-in-all what I am saying is Teams have to make sacrifices to meet the cap sometimes. This seems like a good solution for Tampa and provides some future potential upside.

Tampa has $5mil in cap space before this deal and $8mil after. I would think they would like to sign Palat ($5.3mil last year) and Ruuta (discounted $1.3mil last year) back. I don't think $5mil gets both and even $8mil cuts it tight. They may need to make even more sacrifices to make more cap room. But this deal certainly helps now and in the future.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 5, 2022 at 10:51 p.m.
Thread: 2023
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsradynasty</b></div><div>Nichushkin 6.1x5 ...TB I think the 2 players you touched wouldn't get the return it would take for TB to give them up</div></div>

Compare Nichushkin 27yrs (25G, 27A, 52Pts) VS Nylander 26yrs earning $6.9mil (34G, 46A, 80Pts), Bunting 26yrs (23G, 40A, 63Pts), &amp; Kerfoot 27yrs earning $3.5mil (13G, 38A, 51Pts). Also Nichushkkin has only had one season over 14 Goals or 34Pts. Last year Gaudreau 28yrs was making $6.9mil (43G, 86A, 129Pts) and Burakovsky 27trs was making $4.9mil (25G, 44A, 69Pts). Seems like $5mil is a reasonable salary. I put 3yrs considering that this would give him incentive to earn a bigger contract while still in his prime IF the production keeps up. More than willing to extend it 2yrs and even raise it to somewhere under $6mil.

Let's break it down. Tampa needs Cap space. Also they are more than likely heading into a transition period where they need to try to compete, yet look further down the road. They have several others to sign and positions to fill. Yes, the players beings traded away by Tampa require a high return. But there is always give and take in a trade.

Cernak (1G, 12A, 13Pts, 7+/-) VS. Holl (3G, 20A, 23Pts, 14+/-). Tampa looses 5years of youth and grit here. Gains offence. Also gains $950,000 in cap space. That's a whole entree level contract.

Colton is 25, Robertson is 20. Tampa gains 5 years here and all of Colton's contract in cap space. In terms of potential. Colton projects as a 20-30 goal scorer 3rd to 2nd line forward. Scouting report on Robertson projects as 2nd liner to All-Star 30-40 goal scorer like his brother.

Add in Mikhail Abramov 21yrs (projects as a 2nd to 3rd liner of similar offence as Colton) and a 1st round pick for a 4th.

All in all it look's like a perfect fit for Tampa's needs moving forward and reasonable extra incentive
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 1, 2022 at 8:03 p.m.
Thread: Test
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Alright you want an actual breakdown of this mess?</div></div>

Yeah. But an intelligent one.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Trade 1: Tavares declines because he has full say on where he plays and Toronto cant do **** about it. It's also a bad deal for Vancouver</div></div>

This could be correct. Tavares could deny the trade and that would be the end of it. On the other hand he could see an opportunity in Vancouver and understand how TO needs to make room. Hard to tell what people will do. He may love being a Leaf, but he may also love the team enough to make the sacrifice.

Not sure how this is bad for Vancouver. Vancouver has the cap room. Taveras is older yes, but arguably a better face-off man and was 27G, 49A, 76Pts VS. Horvats 31G, 21A, 52Pts. Looks like an offense upgrade. Perhaps Horvat and Boeser are a bit much. So drop Boeser and Kerfoot from the deal and it looks to even up.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Trade 2: Florida declines because they are in a cap crunch and Verhaeghe is cheaper with more term, he also doesn't play center so why are you playing him there?</div></div>

You're right Florida has cap issues. They have $$3mil in cap space. They will want to resign 23yr old Luostarinen (that's about $2mil) plus they need to fill 2 more rosetr spots.

So remove Nylander and insert Kerfoot into the trade. Now Florida gets 2 players at the price of $5mil total instead of one at $4.1. Kampf (27yrs) was 11G, 15A, 26Pts, Kerfoot (27yrs) was 13G, 38A, 51Pts. Verhaeghe 27yrs was 24G, 31A, 55Pts. So Florida gets two players that can play both LW and C that are the same age for $900k more and produced the same amount of Goals, 22 more assists. Meanwhile reducing their empty roster spots to 1 instead of 2 with $1.5 mil to spend.

Seems to make sense to me. Though I could see Florida asking for perhaps a mid-tire prospect or mid-round draft pick as well.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Trade 3: TJ Brodie decline, Calgary, and Toronto decline. Both team and player have moved on from eachother and Calgary isn't moving their #1 who's young and locked up long term for a couple #3's. At the same times Toronto isn't decimating their already extremely thin RD depth for an upgrade to Morgan's partner.</div></div>

Didn't realize Brodie had a NTC, so he could deline. But what makes you think he would? He might accept for the exact same reasons Tavares would. On top of that he has a good history with Calgary and didn't leave under bad terms. While Liljegren isn't at the level Andersson is, yet, he could be&lt; or close, in 2 years. Hence the 1st Round Pick.

Calgary has $26mil in cap room with 6 Forward and 2 Defence positions to fill. They will likely want to re-sign Gaudreau (approx $10mil+), Tkachuk (approx $10mil+), and Mangiapane (approx $4mil+). They will also have Monahan coming off IR (loved by the team and fans) at prob $3mil give or take.

They will likely let Zadorov go and try to retain Kylington instead since he will probably be at a lower cost.

That leaves 2 Forward and 1 Defence position to fill with very little room to do it. Again in this situation filling two RD slots with good players that will only cost them $1,8mil more. Or perhaps this is a 3 way deal involving Brodie going to a 3rd team and Calgary getting a different player for less. Add to that logic the 1st rounder and it certainly seems to make sense for Calgary, if they don't actually come out ahead in the end.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Trade 4: Tampa trade is just extremely lopsided, nothing worth discussing on it</div></div>

I completely disagree. As I answered this one on another thread I will simply leave it at that.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Trade 5: Muzzin declines, again full NTC, can block every trade.</div></div>

You keep saying people will decline. But there is not given reasoning. Players constantly waves their NTC's. If he won't go to NJ then maybe this is another 3-team deal. Either way the equity is there.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Now for the signings:
Nichushkin is going to get a long term deal of at least 6M, this is a massive underpay in both money and term</div></div>

$1mil less for a 3yr deal is a massive undersigning? He was only making $2.5mil in his last contract. Last year was his first and only year scoring more than 14G or 34pts in 6 full seasons (7 total). Seems to me like the legit concerns he may not repeat those numbers justifies the $1mil less. And by making the deal 3 years he has the opportunity to earn an even bigger payday if he keeps it up over those 3 years.

At most I could see the term being shorter (2yrs) or a little more money ($500kish)


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Marchment has earned a pretty decent raise, likely 3M and no less than 2.5M</div></div>

I can see your point here. But again he has only had 1 year of real performance. Marchment grew up a Leafs fan, liked being in TO and he may be willing to take a lower 1-yr deal (close to home) with the idea of that pay raise next year. He could have an even better year and earn himself a bidding war. Then again maybe the contract does need to be boosted a bit. But either way that doesn't put the nail in the coffin on this one. Keep in mind I'm showing depth of 5 Forwards and 4 Defence that account for an additional $4.5mil in cap room to work with.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Campbell will want at least 5 years of term and probably at least 5M, the latest report says he will get 6M</div></div>

Again this is conjecture. The "report" says he want's $5mil, I agree he could get up to $6mil. On the other hand, there is every indication he'd like to stay in TO IF he can get a contract close to his numbers. He made $1.65mil last year. Which makes $4.5 mil 2.5x's that amount and not that far off from the $5 mil he's reportedly asked the Leafs for. Lastly, as I pointed out above, with these trades etc the Leafs would have an additional $4.5mil to work with. Assume they signed Nichushkin at $5.5mil, Marchment at $2.5mil and Campbell at $5mil. They'd still have $2.5mil left in cap space. So this is very doable.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Boeser's qualifying offer is 7.5M </div></div>

Based on things I have mentioned above. I'll make adjustments to drop Boeser from the trade and adjust some trades/salaries.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Lyubushkin can probably get more on the market
Middleton and Appleton offer sheets will get matched instantly. </div></div>

Perhaps these are all true. Lyubushkin isn't a key component. But he might take the cut to avoid a move and he seems like he is still finding his stride. Didn't make a big splash when he got to TO.

As for Middleton and Mason. The offer sheets would likely be matched. But that doesn't mean they couldn't easily be traded for. Don't think either demands much other than a prospect of a draft pick.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Just because the trades worked for you on easy mode in chel doesn't mean they are remotely realistic</div></div>

It's kind of assuming a lot you'd say this. Ironic, because I did check them on NHL 22 but it was on Hard setting. In the Vancouver deal I was able to get a 1st back from Vancouver. In some of the other deals I was able to get picks as well. Not that I think it has any bearing on reality. Then again neither do most comments I see.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 1, 2022 at 5:54 p.m.
Thread: Test
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 1, 2022 at 5:08 p.m.
Thread: Test
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2021 at 2:43 a.m.
Thread: Test
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 12, 2021 at 3:41 a.m.
Thread: Test