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Db1899

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Forum: NHLMar. 14 at 4:59 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>They’re just delaying the rebuild to get knocked out in the 1st rd. They need to go the San Jose route and tear it down</div></div>

From a financial perspective, it's a lot harder for teams like Nashville to just go into a full rebuild because they're more reliant on the gate revenue for their games than larger markets are. Bad teams don't sell as many tickets. Unfortunately this means they're usually treading the playoff bubble zone until something forces them to commit to a rebuild. Once Josi and Saros are gone it would make more sense since those players aren't easily replaced through trade or FA.

Ultimately you need to convince ownership that rebuilding the squad is a more viable investment than trying to sell out the arena.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 11:58 a.m.
Thread: New York Islanders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>macca2119</b></div><div>I hate a "Avs pass" post...

I started to think Nelson for RyJo might be interesting, but the numbers do not appear to justify that price. Keep in mind that the Avs 1st PP unit plays 80%+ of the PP, so Nelson's PP contributions would not really be of value. So, I wanted to focus on 5v5 numbers.

5v5
RyJo 9G 6A 53.6 FO% 46.1% OZ Starts 49.4 Corsi 2 yrs $4M
Nelson 17G 13A 46.4 FO% 59.3% OZ Starts 50.3 Corsi 2yrs $6M

My biggest concern is, in additional to the lack of expected PP time, what happens to Nelsons numbers when his OZ start time gets cut down (MacKinnon gets 72% of his starts in the OZ and that is not going down).
Basically the Avs would be giving up a first AND their top prospect (in a position of need) to move from RyJo's .33 ppg to Nelson's .5 ppg

Finally, the Avs cannot absorb the $2m difference in the contract.

Avs Pass ;)</div></div>

Nelson has been productive in a less-offensively tilted role before he really popped off in 2021-22.

2018-19 through 2020-21 he was getting more than 50% of his starts in the D-zone and was typically 6th on the team in PP TOI (so borderline PP1/2 I'd argue.) He still averaged nearly 28 goals/82 GP and was on ice for 54.3% of the goals scored 5v5.

I also don't know where you're getting Johansen scoring at .33 PPG and Nelson scoring at .5 PPG? Nelson has 46 points in 58 GP (.79 PPG) and 30 of those at 5v5 (0.52). Johansen has 22 points in 60 GP (0.37) and only 15 of those at 5v5 (0.25) No matter how you slice it, Nelson is literally scoring twice as much as RyJo this year.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7 at 6:53 p.m.
Thread: Marner gone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fail4Nail</b></div><div>- My rebuttal to your contract situation comment is that Dobson's contract is done after next year. He's going to get a lot of money, as he is deserved. That being said, as good as he is, he's not going to be McAvoy or Fox good, but he'll command as much money as them.
- I think there is a huge misconception with Bouchard. People are saying "he just took off" or "he's a product of McDavid" or "powerplay merchant". People don't realize that 2 years ago, he got 40+ points and played second unit powerplay, a unit that barely saw ice time. Same thing happened last year, until Barrie got traded. 2 consecutive playoffs now that Bouchard has been our best dman. Bouchard is prone to some bone-head defensive plays and puck watching, but he's a fairly solid dman.
- Question about Dobson though. I know he's good offensively, but how is he on the defensive side? I've seen he's a good shot blocker, but is he a good shutdown dman like Pelech?</div></div>

Dobson has taken a big leap on defense this year, which is why Isles fans are talking him up so much. He's over a PPG scoring wise, and playing nearly 26 minutes a night in all three phases as the de facto RD1. Not sure how much stock you put in Dom@the Athletic's numbers, but his Defensive Rating has Dobson in the 85th percentile to go along with a 100th percentile offensively. He's more or less been the best player in the Metro Division by Dom's "Net Rating" numbers (+19 overall), even. Dude has been legit this year.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7 at 6:31 p.m.
Thread: Marner gone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jaok3</b></div><div>Not that Marner would ever waive l think. Who was the Islanders leading goal scorer last year and did he have more than Marner's 35?</div></div>

Marner had 30 goals last year - Brock Nelson was the leading goalscorer on the 2022-23 Islanders with 36 (and Bo Horvat had 38, but 31 of those were with the Canucks prior to the trade.)

Regardless - the point would still stand. Marner is much more of a playmaker who also happens to score (guy has averaged 2.22 assists for every goal he's scored in his career) so he doesn't necessarily fit the player type the Isles would be looking to pair with Mat Barzal. And, personally, if I'm trading away one of the best young defensemen in the league to fill the square hole on my top line, I'd rather not get back a round peg - no matter how nice that peg is.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7 at 6:13 p.m.
Thread: Marner gone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fail4Nail</b></div><div>Has McAvoy and Fox died??? Not to mention Carlson, Weegar, Bouchard, Hamilton, Pietrangelo....Dobson is great, but you're overhyping saying he's the 2nd best RHD in the league.</div></div>

Not my argument, but I'd jump in and say that you could easily make a case that Dobson and his $4M AAV is the most -valuable- RHD in the league, and if you were starting a team from scratch, he'd be one of the first 2 or 3 picked (along with Fox &amp; McAvoy) - Carlson &amp; Pietrangelo are starting to show their age, Weegar is riding a ton of shooting luck, Dougie Hamilton is great but I worry about the injury history, and Bouchard is just now taking the kind of leap that Dobson took two seasons ago.

As far as the trade, there's two reasons I'd pass if I'm the Islanders: Dobson has a better contract situation (his current deal ends in RFA vs. Marner ending in UFA) and Marner's cap hit means that an Islanders team that is basically capped out would need to magically make $7M in cap space appear. That, last part, to me, is the biggest reason why this is a no-go.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30 at 10:39 a.m.
Thread: Not going all in but still buying
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>What did the athletic say about wahlstrom</div></div>

"It’s been a down year for the 23-year-old winger by every metric available.

Having dressed for just 22 games so far — and averaged 11:07 of playing time — Wahlstrom has naturally seen a decline in his boxcar statistics after previously holding down a regular lineup spot on Long Island.

What’s more concerning is the fact his per hour goal, assist, point and shot metrics have all seen a steep decline as well.

Wahlstrom is still searching for his form after missing half of the 2022-23 season due to a torn ACL. He was projected as a top-six forward when he was drafted 11th in 2018, but may need a fresh start somewhere else to take the next step.

A pending RFA with arbitration rights, he appears to be running out of chances with the Islanders."