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Speak of the Devil
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Forum: New Jersey DevilsApr. 16 at 7:27 a.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils 2024 Offseason Discussion Thread #1
Devils currently have #10 pick at 81 points

8. SEA: 79 pts (33-34-13): 2 games remaining vs WPG, MIN
9. CGY: 79 pts (37-38-5): 2 games remaining vs VAN, SJS
10. NJD: 81 pts (38-39-5): 0 games remaining

The odds for the final four games are as follow (<a href="https://www.moneypuck.com/index.html?date=2024-04-16" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">per moneypuck</a>)

4/16: SEA 34.3% -- vs -- WPG 65.7%
4/16: CGY 34.0% -- vs -- VAN 66.0%
4/18: SEA 48.8% -- vs -- MIN 51.2%
4/18: CGY 66.1% -- vs -- SJS 33.9%

Since we have the RW tiebreak, both teams would need 3 pts to overtake us. The odds for each:

SEA 3+ points....30.5%
CGY 3+ points....28.8%

Combined...

Both teams gets 3+ points...............8.8%
One team gets 3+ points...............41.7%
SEA &amp; CGY both gets 0-2 points....49.5%

...in other words, Devils pre-lottery position....

8th place............8.8%
9th place..........41.7%
10th place........49.5%

...and when factoring weighted average <a href="https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">lottery odds</a>, the probabilities of NJD actual draft position are as follows

#1 Overall............4.3%
#2 Overall............4.5%
#3 Overall............0.2%
#8 Overall............4.8%
#9 Overall..........29.5%
#10 Overall........46.4%
#11 Overall..........9.8%
#12 Overall..........0.4%

...or if you prefer odds in stead of probability

#1 Overall............1-in-23
#2 Overall............1-in-22
#3 Overall............1-in-650
#8 Overall............1-in-21
#9 Overall............2-in-7
#10 Overall..........1-in-2
#11 Overall..........1-in-10
#12 Overall..........1-in-225

In short, probabilities NJD pick improves/declines

Improves....43.3%
Stays #10...46.4%
Declines.....10.3%
Forum: New Jersey DevilsMar. 25 at 10:33 a.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils 2023-24 Season Discussion Thread #1
Pierre LeBrun conversation with Tom Fitzgerald below.

My takeaways…it’s definitely not all goalie or bust. Improving and developing the defense, primarily to control puck, is still first and highest priority. Adding some heavies on the wing seems like it will be a focus in off-season. And goalie hunt will be not be limited to “big game”.

- - - -
LeBrun: What’s gone wrong for Devils, and how to fix it? Catching up with Tom Fitzgerald.



MANALAPAN, Fla. — Tom Fitzgerald sat back in his chair and pondered the question, facial expressions preceding the words that came out.

Words about a New Jersey Devils season that began with such high expectations. And about a young team learning to deal with those expectations and adversity. And about why it’s sometimes difficult for teams to take that next step.

“It’s hard. It’s not a place where we thought we would be,” the Devils president of hockey operations and general manager said candidly as he began a chat with The Athletic last week at the GMs meetings. “We knew we would take a step back in certain areas, but with the belief that the lack of experience on the back end would pay forward with the experience these young kids are getting this year.

“We live with their mistakes. We think they’re going to be great young defensemen in this league sooner rather than later. But the reality is they’re young.”

The comment was about a young blue-line group, in general, but obviously, a pair of 20-year-old future stars are playing huge minutes for the Devils: Luke Hughes is leading the team with more than 21 minutes per night, and Simon Nemec is not that far behind at just over 20 minutes a game.

In no way does Fitzgerald see it as a bad thing. Both Hughes and Nemec will be better for it. But in the here and now, there are times when relying on two rookies — even uber-talented ones — hasn’t made for a smooth ride.

“We expected to take a step back, but with the anticipation that we would take two steps forward, and really taking this experience and paying it forward with more experience,” Fitzgerald said. “They’re going to get better. And the sky’s the limit with the two young defensemen in particular. We think the world of them.”

What’s interesting is that this is where the Devils GM took the conversation on his own after being asked generally about a tough season for his team. Most would have expected him to mention the team’s goaltending struggles first. But perhaps that’s a tired subject. Others might have also mentioned the team’s injuries, losing No. 1 blueliner Dougie Hamilton 20 games into the season was something the team never recovered from.

But Fitzgerald doesn’t want to use injuries as a key excuse, although obviously they played a role to some degree.

“It throws your rhythm off — continuity,” he said. “Last year, we didn’t have any (injuries), or hardly any. It’s real. Injuries are real. But it’s absolutely not the reason why we’re in this place scratching and clawing trying to get into the playoffs.

“I just think there’s a lot of areas we needed to be better.”

As the Devils GM noted, his team is still fighting and hasn’t given up on the playoff race. But as far as those areas where they needed to get better?

“Every team identifies those areas, whether it’s your play away from the puck, checking, defending, the front of the net, not giving up as many high-end, quality chances,” he said. “We’ll get our chances, but what are we giving up?

“I believe it’s only going to make us stronger with an understanding of, ‘Wow, this is what we need to do. This is how committed we need to be. We want to be those teams that we play that are extremely tough to play against.”’

Think about the metamorphosis that the Florida Panthers went through, going from a high-flying, offensive machine two years ago to a more balanced, playoff-style, responsible two-way team today. I think that’s what Fitzgerald hopes to see from his Devils team as they continue their evolution. They’ve got the talent. But can they learn how to win the proper way?

Getting more saves would help. And newly acquired Jake Allen got off to a good start on that front after coming over from Montreal on March 8.

It does make you wonder where New Jersey might be in the standings had a goalie upgrade arrived earlier, but it certainly wasn’t for a lack of trying. There’s a reason there are so few midseason goalie trades around the league.

“Well, we’ve been in the goalie market the majority of this year, for certain goalies that we felt were on the market,” said Fitzgerald, whose pursuit of Calgary No. 1 Jacob Markstrom was well-publicized. “You know, going into the season — and you look at what possibly was available last summer — teams weren’t trading me their goalies, either.”

The Devils and Jets did have a conversation or two over Connor Hellebuyck last summer, but obviously that never got to where it needed to go. The Jets ultimately wanted to keep him anyway if at all possible. And the other thing to remember about last summer is that Vitek Vanecek was coming off a season as the Devils’ No. 1 where his 33 wins were tied for seventh in the NHL with Juuse Saros — one win behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, one ahead of Ilya Sorokin.

No one’s confusing Vanecek with any of those guys, of course. He was a 1B having a decent year. But it’s just a reminder that the Devils didn’t feel nearly as desperate last summer as they would eventually get this season once Vanecek’s play deteriorated and eventually the goalie got hurt.

All of which put 23-year-old goalies Akira Schmid and Nico Daws in a tough spot, and neither was able to grab the job and run with it.

“We love what we saw in Schmid,” Fitzgerald said of the goalie who came in and had a .921 save percentage in nine playoff games last season for the Devils. “Maybe we got a little ahead of ourselves with a young goalie.”

The Devils had kept tabs with Montreal on Allen, while at the same time fishing for a bigger target in Markstrom and kicking the tires on Saros in Nashville among others.

Allen had to waive his modified no-trade to go to New Jersey, and part of making him feel comfortable doing that was Fitzgerald communicating that he envisions Allen being part of a veteran 1-2 punch next season if New Jersey can go out and get it done for a bigger name in goal.

Easier said than done, of course, going out this summer and finally getting Markstrom or Saros or someone of that top-10 stature.

“There’s zero guarantees, and it’s nice to have a plan and check a box, (but) goalies have to be available to actually have a market,” Fitzgerald said. “If they are, certain teams know that we will be in the market for those certain types of goalies. And Jake Allen understands what we are trying to do, although again there’s no guarantees.

“But yeah, that’s how we set things up.”

So can Flames GM Craig Conroy expect to hear again from Fitzgerald this offseason?

“Not just Craig,” Fitzgerald replied with a chuckle.

It was no laughing matter when Fitzgerald made a coaching change on March 4, firing veteran Lindy Ruff and replacing him on an interim basis with associate coach Travis Green, the former Canucks bench boss.

That was a tough, tough moment for Fitzgerald, given the work Ruff had done helping develop the team’s young core.

“I love Lindy Ruff,” Fitzgerald said. “I bought him in for a certain reason. He checked all those boxes. When this team does hit their mark, Lindy’s fingerprints will be all over it for how he handled these players when they were younger. And how he molded them and allowed them to become the offensive players that we drafted.”

But — and there’s obviously a but when someone ends up fired — the Devils have entered a different phase of their growth.

“As we grow, there are things that I want to see change,” Fitzgerald said. “This isn’t on Lindy. This is on me as a manager. I think great players take accountability, as well, and responsibility. I just felt — we want to be a team that can play off the rush like we were last year, but teams defended us differently this year. They didn’t want to get into a track meet with us.

“I wanted to see us become that type of team: be more mature with the puck, getting pucks in deep, clock management — just certain things. We kept shooting ourselves in the foot. I just wanted to see some habits that could change.”

The timing of the coaching change, so late in the regular season, is reflective of the fact that Fitzgerald still believed the season could be salvaged.

“Oh yeah. We did,” he said. “Travis is different than Lindy. There’s not one coach that’s the same. I’ve seen some things that I’ve liked.

“As many missing pieces as we may have out of the lineup, playing to a different identity is possible. And it’s a must, to be quite honest.”

Again, Fitzgerald hasn’t given up on this season, but regardless of how it finishes, he’s got an idea (outside of goaltending) where he’s going to look to tinker with his lineup.

“We’ve got a lot of skill,” he said. “We really do. I’d like to get a little harder.”

The team lost Miles Wood to free agency last summer and then lost Michael McLeod, who was charged with sexual assault in London, Ontario. Hockey-wise, the team hasn’t been able to replace what those guys brought on the ice.

So that will be an offseason focus.

“Get harder on the wing,” Fitzgerald said. “We’ve got enough talent for offense, but the game is still physical. You got to take hits to make plays. I want a team that is committed to playing through guys, not just circling off guys.

“And (players) who will allow our guys some time and space, because when guys in our league have time and space, they can make great plays. … Those are characteristics in certain players that I will be looking for.”

So an important offseason is coming again for a team that still has a bright future. But also a team that needs to pick itself off the mat if this season does likely end up with it out of the playoff mix.

It hasn’t been easy for Fitzgerald to digest, but he’s trying to keep it in perspective.

“I’m a passionate person,” said Fitzgerald, who signed a multiyear contract extension in January and got promoted to president of hockey operations with it. “I’ve got my convictions, and I’m as highly a competitor as the next guy. It’s not easy. It’s not easy. It’s my job to build this team around the pillars that we have. … And help them not piss away good years of their career by not being a playoff team. That’s my job.

“But the reality is — and I say this all the time — there are times where work is a little rough. Life is great. My life is great. Sometimes work is a little rough. But you manage that. I’ve got great support in my family, great support from ownership and our CEO Tad Brown.

“But at the end of the day, it’s my job to put the best team on the ice with an identity that I want our team and our fans to be proud of.”
Forum: New Jersey DevilsMar. 13 at 11:09 a.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils 2023-24 Season Discussion Thread #1
Comparing Sophomore seasons of recent defensemen, all games, sorted by pts

Soph Dman…........GP -- G -- A -- PTS (ppg)

Cale Makar…........42 -- 16 -- 35 -- 51 (1.21)
Adam Fox…..........32 --- 8 --- 40 -- 48 (1.50)
<strong>Seamus Casey….37 --- 8 --- 40 -- 48 (1.30)</strong>
Luke Hughes….....39 -- 10 -- 38 -- 48 (1.23)
Justin Schultz….....41 -- 18 -- 29 -- 47 (1.15)
Lane Hutson…......33 -- 12 -- 31 -- 43 (1.30)
Nate Schmidt........44 --- 3 --- 38 -- 41 (0.93)
Mike Benning….....42 -- 16 -- 23 -- 39 (0.93)
Zach Werenski…...37 -- 13 -- 24 -- 37 (1.00)
T. van Riemsdyk....41 -- 10 -- 25 -- 35 (0.85)
Quinn Hughes…...33 --- 5 --- 29 -- 34 (1.03)
Owen Power…......34 --- 3 --- 30 -- 33 (0.97)
Mike Reilly…..........42 --- 9 --- 24 -- 33 (0.79)
Will Butcher…........39 --- 9 --- 23 -- 32 (0.82)
Mason Lohrei….....40 --- 4 --- 28 -- 32 (0.80)
Scott Morrow….....36 --- 9 --- 22 -- 31 (0.86)
Torey Krug….........39 -- 11 --- 17 -- 28 (0.72)
Scott Perunovich..40 --- 3 --- 25 -- 28 (0.70)
Ian Mitchell…........40 --- 6 --- 21 -- 27 (0.68)
Forum: New Jersey DevilsMar. 3 at 8:43 p.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils 2023-24 Season Discussion Thread #1
In my opinion, puck protection out of the back has been the problem from start of year. Too much errant passing coming out of d-zone. The quality of possession drops, the quality of chances for declines, the quality of chances we give up gets worse. We spend too much time trying to recover from outlet passes in the skates. Team is built around scoring off the rush…but if we cannot start the rush, our strength is wiped out.

The fix is a few things: (a) improve puck protecting coming out if d-zone. Bring in one or two solid dmen that can deliver the puck safely through the neutral zone. Give us six good dmen who protect puck and most everything else will fall into place. (b) improve our ability to adapt in different situations. Have guys that can play hard on forecheck when middle of the ice closes up. Lindy’s biggest flaw is that he never changed anything. Zero flexibility, adaptability (we added a guy like Timo so we could have different approach…Thunder and Lightning…instead he tried stuffing Timo-sized peg into Bratt-sized hole).

An early off-season to-do list.
1. New coaches. I don’t think we need old, wise, steady…we need young, flexible, adaptable.

2. De-emphasize analytics. That’s on Fitzy. Data is helpful and should be used. But over large samples…over 82-games…I want to see wins generated in different ways (sometimes winning possession, sometimes goalies steal it, sometimes physicality wins, etc).

3. Add one top-4 dman. Hanifin worth have been great. Puck protection.

4. Add a veteran, respected goalie. Half the battle is the confidence game. I’d rather have a .905 goalie that the team plays confidently in front of…than a .910 goalie that loses the team when a soft goal goes in.

5. Add an identity line. Don’t have to be brawlers…but 3 guys on a fourth line that bring size AND speed…play heavy on forecheck. Guys like Wood, McLeod. Maybe even…dare I saw…a guy like Josh Anderson.

Future is still bright.
Forum: New Jersey DevilsMar. 1 at 7:55 p.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils 2023-24 Season Discussion Thread #1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>"Is it just me or do the Devils seem like they are super leaky when it comes to trying to acquire Markstrom? I assume all these leaks are coming from their side."

"Maybe NJ is using the media to poison the well (relationship between Marky and management)."

Lmaoo how have they convinced themselves that leaks going to posters on "CalgaryPuck" are from the NJD side</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I’d be pissed too. Their best player just threw their GM under the bus…who been underwhelming them with trades. Many of the CGY fans on here are blaming the media…which is always a bad sign (see the first ‘stage of grief’…it’s not a river in Egypt)</div></div>

<strong>FitzMagic!</strong>