DirtyDangles

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Philadelphia Flyers
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Forum: GM Game 2019-20Oct 2 at 1:21
Thread: 2019-20 GM Game - General Discussion
If anyone is interested in a player pick'em hockey pool feel free to join using the link below. You pick a lineup every 2 weeks but can only use a player a maximum of 3 times. $25 USD entry. If I missed tagging you I am sorry! Anyone can join!

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Forum: NHL SigningsSep 13 at 7:37
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>That’s the take by Corey Pronman, who travels the world and ranks prospects and young players. Over the past few years his impression of Provorov has gone down a notch. He may not be elite (Top-10 D in the NHL) but he can still be a very serviceable top pairing defender and, should he get there, then this is a great contract. It’s just that he has a ways to go. As per my later post, looking at his overall game, scoring, play driving, and ability to suppress scoring chances, he’s at the level of an average 2nd pairing defenseman as it stands right now.</div></div>

And how were his numbers the previous year? The guy has proven he can be elite so for anyone to claim he won’t be is asinine.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep 13 at 8:48
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (&gt; 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.</div></div>

So Provy has one down year and all of a sudden he doesn't have elite potential? Can you elaborate as to how that is the case?