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Who adds what?
Jul 6, 2017
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Once upon a time...
As much as Kuznetsov is a PR issue, trading him for someone who might not play at all does seem risky. On the other hand, when healthy, Tarasenko is pretty good. I think losing Kuzentsov would leave WSH with a big hole at #2C until McMichael is ready to make that jump. He might be ready right now, or it could be another year. I don't know. Would adding Kuznetsov free STL up to trade a lesser #2C option along with their potential gamebreaking 1R?
I'm just a casual fan and I don't know what the rules even are about trading injured guys, but to me if there's a cheap placeholder who can take over Kuznetsov's minutes for a year or two, plus a risk-reward pickup who might equal Kuznetsov's points, then that could be tempting.
(eta: I'm talking about someone who can fill the 15 minutes a night Laviolette gives Kuznetsov, not the 18 minutes he's capable of. I'm sure STL isn't offering Schenn plus Tank for just Birdman. But there are four or five other guys on that roster who can kind of play center and I don't know enough about them to say which one could make up a third to a half of Kuznetsov's value, depending on Tarasenko's odds of staying healthy. If they're all too good for that, and WSH has to add, let's talk that through, instead.)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Hell yeah that’s all that kid wants to do is shoot!</div></div>
Perfect! When can he start?
Jokes aside, WSH LHD depth chart looks like: Orlov (#2D), Dillon (works well on top pair with Carlson), Kempny (works well enough to win a Cup on top pair if healthy), Chara (still decent if he wants another shot at the title), Fehervary (had good puck possession in a few games this past year. Is ready for a regular spot), Alexeyev (recent 1st rounder, rookie of the month for January in KHL, then did pretty well in the AHL), Johansen (former 1st rounder, future bottom four guy, hopefully). They're set. (eta: I forgot Nardella!! Bobby Nardella is a guy they signed out of college who just led a Swedish team in points, and might also be NHL ready, along with everyone I just mentioned).
If Col is getting a goalie it can easily protect from expansion, WSH would probably want to get back an exempt RHD prospect. Or an exempt forward prospect. My favorite Vanecek offer, and it's a controversial one but I keep seeing it, is Liljegren and a late 2nd. Since the Caps have no RHD prospects under contract, that addresses a need, and the pick is just a great bonus.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Talvitie is a smart, crafty forward...was on pretty good path to useful bottom-6 two-way piece until injuries put him off track while at Penn State.
He still has a shot I suppose, but likely a depth player.</div></div>
Right. Vanecek gets some interest on here from NJ, Buf, Tor, SJ, Edm, Col, and oddly one offer from Ari. So bidding could get up around a 2nd and a guy with top six potential, or a future top four RD, ideally. A few Tor fans are offering Liljegren and a 2nd, and if that comes through, I think WSH should be all over it, just based on their minor league depth chart.
This is the first build I've seen that leaves Vanecek unprotected in the expansion draft and defends him by exposing a recent 1st round pick elsewhere. Neat idea.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>Idk where you're getting this narrative that draft positions matter? I never said that. In fact I was quite clear saying that draft positions aside, you think McMichael is worth Lafreniere. He's not. All I mentioned was that Lafreniere was talked about going 1st overall since he was 15 for a reason. & that reason is because he was very clearly 3 steps ahead of his opponents at every level he's been at, even when he's an underager. & you're also the one that said the whole debate was justified because McMichael "scored about the same as Lafreniere in the same league." Which actually isn't true. At the paces that both players were at in the years you mentioned, if both play their full seasons of 68 games, Lafreniere outscores McMicheal by 12 points. So you're saying 12 points is close? Hey if you lose a game 12-0 that's okay then right? Cause it was a close game?
I never said McMichael was bad. I said he wasn't worth Lafreniere. Go find 1 credible hockey person that agrees with you on that. I'll be shocked if you do. You won't.
The only thing you've been right on (which I never disagreed with) is that draft position doesn't matter after you've been drafted. There's been good players go undrafted and there's been bad players go #1 overall. But points aside, McMichael is worth no where close to Lafreniere straight up. You also never took into account the fact that McMichael played on a far superior London team than Lafreniere's Rimouski team. Having better teammates helps you produce more points as well. Lafreniere has intangibles that McMichael doesn't and Lafreniere's ceiling is similar to the likes of Crosby, Eichel, etc. McMichael's is nowhere close to those players. McMichael will likely end up being a high valued 2nd line centre. A low chance at an elite one, but Lafreniere's floor potential is at the height of McMichael's. There's a good reason why Lafrienere played regular NHL minutes all season long as a teenager and McMichael didn't.
I'm honestly done with this debate with you. It's utterly pointless at this point if you still think McMichael is even in the same conversation as Lafreniere. Honestly, you've been nothing but bias and not proved anything. It was more of a waste of time for both of us.
If you're into points/game, here's a calculator that estimates McMichael's AHL performance this year translates to a 33 point NHL season. https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_nhle.php
Lafreniere's NHL production this year extends to a 31 point NHL season. They will each be 20 when next season starts. Lafreniere is slightly younger so he does still have a higher ceiling. But you can't get either for Marner under a flat cap because (edited: Marner's cap hit is nearly eleven million dollars). Cheers.
edited: I would love to learn how to apply quality of teammates corrections across different leagues, and I'd love to drill down further into the data if the AHL kept track of stuff like quality of competition or minutes, but yes, I think this is enough to say they're both going to be among the top 20 year old forwards next season, and I maintain that the Capitals whose biggest expiring UFAs are Ovechkin, who's getting a raise, and Chara, who's already at the league minimum, don't have cap space for a one for one. But I still think if CBJ is all in Tor can pull off a one for one for Foudy, easily. I'm just not sure if CBJ is all in.
2nd edit: not sure if you saw the tag, but I built a Kakko for Marner trade and Rangers fans passed. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/462888?post_id=2413583 I don't have the time to dig up the comment thread where Rangers fans offered Kakko for McMichael, but google exists and you can try to repeat it if you want. Caps should pass on that, too, fwiw. They probably just keep McMichael, I think. Because decent players on ELCs are extremely valuable under a flat cap.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>Let me get this straight, draft positions aside:
Yours debating that Connor McMichael is worth the same amount as Alexis Lafrieniere because in McMichael's draft + 1 season, he scored at a pace of 1.97ppg, and you're saying that that's close to Lafrieniere's draft season (because only 9 months in age difference) where Lafreniere scored at a pace of 2.15ppg. That's a difference of 0.18ppg. That's not even a fair comparison, but that's your logic.
Okay, so how valuable does that make Nic Robertson? In Robertson's draft + 1 season he had 1.86ppg which is only 0.29ppg less than Lafreniere and it's only 0.11ppg less than McMichael. And since scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in the sport. Robertson actually outscored both of them by a considerable margin:
Robertson: 1.19 gpg
McMichael: 0.90 gpg
Lafreniere: 0.67 gpg
Robertson outscored McMichael by 0.29 gpg and outscored Lafreniere by 0.52.
So by your logic, Robertson is worth either McMichael plus, or Lafreniere plus?
Give it a rest. You overhype the hell outta McMichael. This is a joke right?
Edit: forgot to mention, Robertson is only a month older than Lafreniere and he's also 9 months younger than McMichael.</div></div>
Who knows? Robertson might be the next Jan Jenik or Parker Kelly. Are those guys better than Matthews this year? They each had 1 goal/game in the NHL, putting them ahead of Matthews. So what if they each only played one game?
Robertson could turn out to be a steal, and it's great to see NHL teams taking a chance on a little guy from a state without much ice, but if you're so hung up on scouts always being right: how did McMichael get 34 more points than teammate Liam Foudy, that same year? https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0008142020.html Foudy was picked 18th overall in 2018, and McMichael wasn't picked until 25th overall in 2019. That's 224 spots later!!! :)
While we're at it, does Andre Burakovsky ever have a chance to be as good at hockey as the great Frederik Gauthier? Can Anthony Mantha ever get as good as Curtis Lazar? A draft by experts is a great way to rank athletes, but it only holds true for the next few months. Kids grow up quickly and they change by leaps and bounds. Some get better at sports and some get left behind. Teams are getting better at helping their top prospects develop, but there's only so much they can do.
Look, McMichael was a 25th overall pick in 2019 but right after that he scored much more than an 18th overall pick from 2018 and almost as well as the 1st overall pick from 2020. If he's so bad, let Washington keep him. Toronto can just go trade Marner for Foudy, the much better prospect, and Columbus might actually have cap space to consider something like that. The problem is that they're more likely to keep that cap space, save up some money, and rebuild for a year. Marner at $5M would change their minds in a heartbeat. Marner at almost $11M is probably staying in Toronto.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>Marner is worth more than that package alone. Marner isn't available, the entire core 4 isn't actually (as said by team management) but even IF he was, if your conversation didn't mention McMichael or a 1st, your call isn't even answered.</div></div>
McMichael in his draft plus one year scored about the same as Lafreniere in the same league. 9 months older, but still. Tor would have to add Liljegren to Marner to get McMichael. I doubt they consider that, given that, as you said, Marner is not available.
Just like MTL fans keep trading Drouin for Kuznetsov, Tor fans keep trading Marner for Kuznetsov. The core ideas aren't mine. I'm just trying to steer the conversation towards what I think could work for Washington, under the flat cap. Marner for an A+ center prospect and 10M of cap space is such a huge win for Toronto under a flat cap. They'll just sign RNH to cheaply replace Marner, and crack open the champagne over a free top prospect. And the Caps would lose Ovechkin.
Both Tavares and Kuznetsov have played a few games at LW. They could alternate at 2L and 2C depending whether the team needed goals or needed to protect a lead. Kuznetsov is slightly better at carrying the puck from end to end, and dishing out apples, but Tavares is better at getting back to protect his own net. I think they might each get 30 goals a year, together, given that Kuznetsov wouldn't be helping Ovechkin keep the goals lead, and could shoot more. I'm more curious about who Tor plays at 2R if they move Marner. Ideas?
I agree with OP's idea that Marner is worth way more than Alexeyev. Disagree that he's worth McMichael or Wilson, at his current cap hit, vs theirs. But I'm a Caps fan. What can I say?
Under a flat cap, a realistic WSH offer might be Kuznetsov, Alexeyev, and Hagelin for Marner and Engvall. An 80 pt center who's good in the playoffs is worth more than a 90 pt wing who isn't, but the age difference is worth an NHL-ready LHD prospect. Hagelin's better on PK than Engvall, which helps Tor. Engvall is better at playing center, which gives WSH insurance if McMichael stumbles. Caps still need to try to add a center over the offseason, with I don't know what cap space, but overall, I think Kuznetsov and Marner could grow after a change of scenery, and Marner is more valuable.
Would Tavares play 3C or 1L?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Kopitar, Byfield, Turcotte, Vilardi, and more down on the farm.
With our lack of quality at RW behind our former captain, and our lack of quality depth on both sides of the defense until the kids develop, I think a supposedly first-line center is among the lesser of our priorities.</div></div>
Fair enough. Do any of the Caps' bottom four defensemen fit LA's needs? I don't see Orlov or Carlson moving, but a lot of Caps fans are brainstorming trades with Dillon or Schultz involved. A few others don't seem to get how good Jensen and TVR are.
Schultz is usually an offensive specialist but somehow played a really good defensive game this year. The other three tend to focus on defense, but in terms of even strength points, Dillon and Jensen were right up there this year. Laviolette found a way to get them each to round out their game, and while I could see WSH happily keeping them all, if they're looking for a LW, they could make moves. Dillon also finished right up at the top in hits, for whatever that's worth, but I'm sure LA fans remember his toughness from SJ years.