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F3ruS

Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
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Nov. 14, 2018
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 8:56 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 8:50 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 8:39 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 8:36 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 8:11 p.m.
Thread: 2020-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Paquette and Killorn will both be moved, there are also ways to get rid of a big chunk of Coburn's hit as well if he won't waive. Paquette has no ntc either. Sorry, but we won't be trading either Cirelli or Serg nor losing them to an offer sheet.</div></div>

I mean if some team wants to get Cirelli for 8-9 million $, it's their choice. If Cirelli accepts it, it's his choice.
Based on our culture. Cirelli doesn't really like to play in Montreal/xyz insert other mediocre teams, i feel :)
He is my favorite player for a reason, like Point was last year. What Point said to offersheets? No thanks, delete my number from your phone Mr "Bergevin".... hahaaa... :laugh

Only bad Gm's make those offersheets with bad teams anyways.
I'm 90% sure Cirelli rather stays here for 5-6 mill(bridge or 5 years etc..) then go to 8mill to Buffalo... But anything can happen...
If he accepts the offersheet, we will make the correct decision. If the draft picks come from ottawa, we might even accept the 1/1 18.5% next year. You never know... All i'm saying, our cap problems are solvable, yes Paquette,Coburn, i already sold them in my test ACGM... The math works... trades can happen... I also waived some NTC.... easier here ofc... i would be actually shocked if they both stay... then BriseBois is a god... they are good players.. we just can't afford little overpayments in these years... too many big fish we have Vasi,Heddy,Stammer,Kuch etc...

I think Gourde goes 80%+... if he stays.... BriseBois will solve it... He has months to do it... And 10-20+ people helping him... Contracts can be buried as well btw... cap managing is his job and he is good at it... He just got 2 solid palyer for 3 mill $ combined. Price was crazy... but he got what he wanted.... I wonder what he wants to do with other problems? Oh yeah he wants to-----------------Solve it!

EASY!
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 26, 2020 at 7:45 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>One of the things I learned while being a programmer, there isn't always a software solution for a problem. The same is true with math. If you could mathematically figure this out vegas wouldn't make money. So yeah I get the math, I just don't think the math works. Even WSH with a harder road, has a better chance than TOR with an easier road at winning a cup. They are a better team. That part is missing from the math. TOR defense is really bad. Even when healthy.

Also don't put to much into these regular season games. TOR beat the penguins who have no blue line. 2 of their top 4 are out. They are/were missing 1/3 of their skaters. It's no surprise they can't win games like that. Neither can CBJ who are struggling right now with all the injuries.
But much like the AVs, people come back from injury. There is no one on the AVs that I know of that is out for the year. So I like the AVs chances. That's a team built to go into the playoffs both on skill and grit. They didn't really "need" help. Just time.
I wouldn't count WSH out due to their recent play. No team really wants their foot on the gas yet. Now is not the time to peak. I think that's a team people don't want to play.

I honestly put a higher rate on the idea that we might not get a cup winner this year. I'm in Europe. The place is starting to shut down. Football games are getting canceled. Large conferences are getting canceled. People starting to work from home all over. Store shelves getting cleaned out in some places. I was told not to travel as that is part of my job. Had to cancel 3 trips I had planned to take in the next 2 weeks. One in Spain the one in Italy, one in Greece. All cleared. Gonna be bored as hell for the next few weeks as there isn't much for me to do at work if I can't travel.
I'm starting to wonder if that's the future for the hockey playoffs. We might be getting games with no crowd.</div></div>

I'm from Hungary, i think the situation is not that bad yet, if u think about the virus.
But yes maybe no olympics this year, i read. But it's just rumours. That would be crazy if season is cancelled. Well sucks for Vegas then :)

You still don't get it, i tried my best though :cool
When u have 5 players injured the whole season. It's not like a magic trick, and bummmmmmmmmm... playoffs... everybody is healthy for all 25 games. = cup win
It will be MORE injuries. Especially when they play against like a team like Dallas.

Math says on other analytics site 11% for Tampa 11% for Colorado 11% for boston. Also top 3 fav my team.(would be fun to check if Penguins were favorites in all those 3 cup runs).

Anyways, last year every expert said tampa winning the cup.---&gt;epic fail
This year. Again lots of experts will say same thing?Right? Right...
If Ottawa is the best team next year with Lafreniere. They will say Ottawa will win. It's only based on opinions/analaytics/personal feelings. Ottawa willl have 15%(random number)

NBA: I think Milwaukee Bucks will win...
I don't follow NBA from adv stat related stuff... but i bet they are good favourite there. Like there is 16 teams in playoffs...
I bet they are top5... best teams are just best teams.. simple as that... :) :) :)
I predicted Bucks before season started... not 1 month ago... My opinion didn't changed...
My other fav is Clippers... from west... we'll see who wins there.. or noone wins... like u said haha...

Before season i don't remember who i predicted in hockey... maybe Vegas...
Then my opinion changed midseason... to Washington... now back to Vegas.
These things are changing. This math says current odds:
Just imagine Vasilevsky getting hurt for 3 months. Our season is over = 22%--&gt;0% . This can change in 1 day. The current situation is: It's wide open... 10-20% is not that high...

Getting 1st overall for Yzerman for :redwings = 18.5% ---&gt;rigged right? Poor Detroit... Sucks if the 82.5% will happen from the lottery balls... Rip Lafreniere dreams for Yzerman...
That's the reality though... Chicago will have 3% again in the lottery and they can get that "franchise player".

My scenario = only 31%(Vegas9%+Tampa22% combined)... = 69% will happen on average--&gt; likely other team wins...
It's just %.
I know most people hate math... sorry if you are one of them and i'm bored to you :)
I just like the math part of hockey...i can't help it :)

I watch the odds in tennis in grand slams as well. Then upsets happening every 3rd day--&gt; new math ---&gt; new odds--&gt; its fun.

When your team has 0% to chance = it's not fun though i know :)
But your team has pretty good chance like 10% :)) That's a lot, whatever i say here.
You won 3 cups so far in ~10 years.
Winning 4th = slim that's all i'm saying :)
<strong>Easier to go from 0--&gt;1 than 3--&gt; 4 in 10 years period... especially when Crosby+Malkin is regressing(they are way past their primes even if they get 100 points)</strong>

Imagine Ovechkin regressing in later of the season in march: No cup for Caps... they can't do anything about it... it's age... like Tom Brady this year... age catches up in NHL fast...
I'm already having worries about McDonagh contract next 2 years... etc... Stamkos already look "old" if u look at his face compared to babyface guys... everybody ages differently... but over 30.. it's happening to 95% of players... = regression

BTW did u know when ur team fully healthy vs injured it doesn't automatically translate into more points/better%?
So let's say mangames lost for Columbus: 300 ---&gt; in 2020 replay mangames lost = 150 .
Does that mean they make the playoffs, if we replay the season? Not at all. Just higher %. Again math :) They might finish worse... with 50 mangames lost...
Lower %, but can happen if we live in an alternate universe and could go back in time to replay the season. Injuries just 1 part from the whole... Pittsbugh surived it in reg season. Let's see if they survive it in playoffs.
Last year we had 2 top players injured before playoffs started?
Point+Hedman = we were done - 0-4. People laughed about the 0-4. But people never know the full story... they just see: Tampa sux... worst playoffs team ever. Tampa is soft etc... Our goalie was cold, our defense = garbage. This year i think it's better, but we have to wait and see. If we out in 2nd round(like u predict vs boston), it's not much better afterall... We should beat them on paper. 4-3 . But still close...

If injuries happens again, we can't do anything about it(now we have lots of injuries for example).... we need to fight through it... if we are not good enough.. rip season...
I hope u get it :) Can't really illustrate it better... :) I talk too much anyways. Sorry for long posts... no problem if u do'nt read them haha :laugh


NFL this year vs NHL this year Toronto: Who won????
Top tier Offense or top tier Defense ? Chiefs Vs 49ers?
Top offense Mahomes, the mvp.
What toronto has? Nr. 1 offense in NHL. Hard to digest i know...
They attack better than all other teams... Don't listen to media. Their defense is top25.(bad but need a hot goalie, we talked about it before)
Washington won the cup with garbage defense 2 years ago... like top20... you dont need top5 defense to win cups... upsets can happen.
Toronto in playoffs = pretty good = good chance for a cup = 5%. 1 in 20... if they had top 3 defense. Probably 25%...
5% is not that bad...

Your Boston,who you say they are so good team:
they only beat them 4-3...
Remember only 4-3!!!
Not 4-0
Not 4-1
Not 4-2
They almost lost. Is Boston the best team ever? Doesn't matter, almost they are out 1st round last year. They got lucky... I wouldn't bet money on Toronto neither , but i will accept it, when they beat us... and other teams... thats the 5% low but possible...
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 7:07 p.m.
Thread: 2020-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>They all have NTC. You’re going to have to trade 1 of Sergachev or Cirelli. Sorry about that</div></div>

NTC only works until you go to AHL/benched/scratched/waivers/contract termination it's not a clause written in stone by Jesus Christ --&gt; like just talk to a GM in person after season is over in a room. Can be waived in 10 min. Player+ human happiness &gt; NTC
Some players like "lazy" Kessel say: NAAH to Minnesota.... Then they say YAYYY to Arizona... If you can choose from 25+ teams, it's simple... If he wants to go only to 2-5 teams... harder but can be still solved

Do you want to go to XYZ(&lt;-- insert random teamname here, which is not Detroit/Ottawa or other 70 point teams, who are rebuilding)
After a huge failure in playoffs... changes needed... after deep playoffs run... also changed needed... after cup win... also changes needed... all scenario = Cirelli/Serg stays, sorry for other teams...

I can show you this picture:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large" alt="ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large">

Based on this: Bye Yanni
Down year, so i wouldn't expect too much of a return... It's alright though...
Killorn 90%+ gone, cap hell is cap hell... good return for him though... like JT miller... maybe little worse... but still solid return... career year
Backes just got moved for a fair price... and that contract looked unmovable... have u seen his no trade list? i wouldn't list anaheim in my top8 teams... but maybe he did... really doesn't matter... who needs to go... goes...

Serg is not that expensive btw... 3rd pair D... bridge.. low years.... low AAV(3-4)... Mcavoy in Boston was 5mill/year ... he plays 25 min/game Top pair D. Serg doesn't do those things...
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 6:30 p.m.
I agree + load management please for others. We look tired as hell...
4 goals / game allowed minimum nowadays...
We outplayed Toronto from Analytics POV- our XG + high danger scoring % was both higher, so that was an alright loss. I liked what i saw so far from both new forwards... They will come handy come playoffs time.

But i still have some new picture for you guys. So our season is hopeful. ;)

<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large" alt="ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large">

Look at Rutta's number :( We needed an upgrade for a crazy stacked team on the RHD - i was right - he is not the "solution".
Now we have a hole in our lineup... Bogo is Bogo, a bust... Yikes...

But on the other hand look at this, we have still the best % to win this s**hit...
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERtYfRTU4AADIo2?format=jpg&amp;name=large" alt="ERtYfRTU4AADIo2?format=jpg&amp;name=large">

Goodrow didn't helped much, but oh well, i hope he takes out a couple bodies in the playoffs. Analytics can't simulate that impact.(i think---- yet)
Last year Hedman out game 1 ---&gt; already injured (i know he played but how) + Point surgery needed(he also played) = we were instantly done... they just didn't tell us for obvious reasons. Injuries = best kept secret in the NHL. If a team knows about it, then they target that player... and bad things happen... after season... secret is unlocked (usually)...

Stammer has injury... not a secret anymore... needs a lot of rest... and we need to avoid pres trophy like plague anyways... so please Stammer... just go to the beach for weeks...:angry
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 26, 2020 at 5:55 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Yeah I have been hoping Carolina sneaks in to play the penguins becasue Philly and the penguins don't like each other. Last year they hurt Letang right before the playoffs in a dirty scrum by putting him in a headlock, he has neck issues from a previous herniation.
They aren't as bad this year, much like CBJ isn't but still you can expect it in that match up. Some of those stats though TOR as a 5% chance to win a cup but WSH is a 3% chance. I mean if I was betting money on one team making it there over the other it would be WSH.

I also would say COL has a better chance at winning a cup than the penguins.
A lot of it in the end is who gets hot, especially in net. Which is why I don't put much faith in any of these stats. They had the penguins and TB as cup favorites last year. They both fell apart.

If I had to pick 4 teams with the best chance it's BOS, WSH, AVs, STL.
Those are the 4 I think are the most dangerous. But we'll see. I think this really underestimates WSH. They are not a team that likes to lose. I think they are a dirty team they will do whatever it takes to win, but I do give them credit as they can win games.</div></div>

You don't understand this, it's math---&gt;it's never wrong in the long run:
Washington has really low % to win the whole thing, because they have the hardest path to victory. It's simple as that. When u you have possible 4 insane opponent. Vs like Toronto can have 3 insane + 1 easy.
Look at where it deviates the 2 teams:
Conf-Finals---&gt;Finals
21% vs 6% for Washington
14% vs 8% for Toronto

Meaning if they upset 2 teams, they most likely win the 3rd one, because at that point you have to admint, that they beat 2 solid top teams... so if they beat 2 solid teams, why they can't beat the 3rd who is possible weaker, than those 2. In theory Bos+TBL = the strongest this year, as the results shows...
You can say whatever you want, but under Keefe Toronto has really good record in the NHL.... the media is deceiving.
1 loss = end of the world for whole Canada nation...

In reality: Caps struggling for a while... they started hot... then they played bad for a while.. otherwise they would have been leading the whole NHL. Their fans i read it everyday - they say - fire the coach: Reirden. "FIRE HIM" - they chant
Yes i know they are good playoffs team on paper... but if Holtby starts in all games: posts .900 SV% ---&gt; they lose to all teams---&gt; physical play doesn't matter then...
Holtby needs to be again "old holtby" or start the new super goalie "Samsonov" - who puts up good numbers ---&gt; can be new "vasilevsky"

Back to Toronto.
I know they just lost to a Zamboni driver, who works for them. Haha :laugh :laugh :laugh
Before that who they destroyed by perfect play in every 60 min(rare in the nhl-they were truly awesome in that match)? Your Penguins
After that who they beat with solid play?(we played better, but they still won- a win is a win) My TBL


One last thing: Colorado is hopeless ---&gt; too much injuries ---&gt; Sakic saw that --&gt; No All-in --&gt; best gm in the league.
If MacKinnon doesn't carry they go out in like round2...
They have goalie injuries(on top of all the other injuries all the time) and non-top tier goalies anyways, they just signed Hutchinson, who the whole leafs fans hated like the worst person in the universe... That's the goalie they need to rely on possible, in case of more injuries. Varlamov last year = better goalie, than all those 3...
From the outside Colorado can look good, but if u see that they lose to LA ... almost twice last 2 weeks... that's not a cup winning team.
St Louis + Dallas + Vegas. I would rank these 3 other teams easily ahead of them.
As you mentioned, hot goalie is super important. However hot goalie can only can be, if u have a goalie who is capable of getting hot.
Like Fleury, like Lehner, like Vasi etc...

If you ask me about endgame:
Tampa Vs Washington
Dallas Vs Vegas

Finals:
:lightning Vs. :goldenknights

Stanley-Cup winner:
:goldenknights

They just destroyed 5 top teams in the nhl... and everyone else... and they got the best goalie tandem in the whole league. + they got rid of their worst player:Eakin, who was really bad... Oh did i mention Martinez, who comes from a top-defensive mindset team? From LA? He won cup as well...
Their coach is a proven good one: Debour--&gt; always good results in playoffs(mostly late years). They just pulled a "Berube move"--&gt; copycat league ---&gt; i think it will work
Unfortunately my heart will be broken once again. :cry

But until we are not out, i'm hopeful u know... upsets possible :grimace

If you want to hear my opinion about your team: Losing to caps in round 2 --&gt; your team had too many injuries, too much grind = worn out players when playoffs starts...(everyone needed to work 120% whole year = no rest for the body + mental fatigue will catch up). But 1st round Crosby + Malkin can carry easy ;) + Marino is Makar 2.0(kinda)
Main reason for Penguins fall:No Guentzel in playoffs. With fresh Guentzel, the odds for your team = much higher. He is elite. Such a good fit for your team. I don't know where you guys found him... i always thought he is bad and only speed+lucky+ good teammates... but now i think i was dumb :) Zucker can't replace him. Solid player, but that's it.
You need full team to go deep. Remember when Stammer injured couple years ago.. we missed the playoffs by 1 point... unlucky...

Remember why :blues won last year: They coasted for half a season = no fatigue. If St. Louis wins, that's impressive... i wouldn't bet a cent on it... However good they look. They look scary since couple games... It's still unlikely they repeat... They deserve it, if they can do it. That's for sure...
Forum: NHL SigningsFeb. 26, 2020 at 5:18 p.m.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 26, 2020 at 4:32 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>I wouldn't put the penguins on that list, they have the same problem TB does. It's why I don't see them going far. It is possible to rattle them teams have done it. Boston did it, NYI did it.
Also that CHI team of the past, I don't think you give them enough credit. That was the team with Buf was it not? I remember them always playing the penguins physical. It's why they had their number.

Anything can happen on that ice. But the reality is it's a hard hurdle to overcome. I mean last year for the penguins it was a large dose of Clutterbuck, Martin,, Cizikas. Given the two Cs aren't very big guys next to Crosby and Jake they are clearly more physical and gave them fits. They they add on Guys like Lee and Nelson and they just had a hard time. I'm hoping WSH and the NY play each other and one knocks the other out :tearsofjoy</div></div>

Look at this:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large" alt="ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large">

This is based on "the athletic" analytics, from the guy i respect. He does hard work each day, he is like obsessed with these stuffs. Always posts good things on twitter: like load managament should be in already in NHL. What i'm saying since 2 years... Let Stamkos rest for 2 weeks... he is suffering atm... looks injured...
In nba they do it all the time... fresh players in playoffs = easier to win

This shows that Goodrow was not really a good pickup from the win % standpoint(Coleman was pretty good), but i think the analytics can't predict the impact, when he knocks out John Carlson for a game or 2 in the playoffs. And lots of players playing through injuries... so it's even worse for those players (see Hedman last year vs Columbus - our defense completely collapsed - but he played a lot...for a while... then he gave up...)

Here is another one so you can see the matchups:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERtYfRTU4AADIo2?format=jpg&amp;name=large" alt="ERtYfRTU4AADIo2?format=jpg&amp;name=large">

So right now your wish will come true:
<em>Boston vs Carolina</em>
<strong>Tampa vs Toronto</strong> --&gt; dream matchup for us :rockon --&gt; i bet our 22% cup chance goes down, when it's not that 1st round matchup...

<em>Washington vs NYI</em>
<strong>Pittsburgh vs Philly</strong> --&gt; good luck vs the dark horse :shakehead

The bad thing is, that if we start winning soon, because the boys will be mad about losing games after a while, and boston keeps losing,(they allowed 9 goals vs vancouver recently...the boston defense which usually allows 2...) then we might win that sh**tty pres trophy...
The diff between Car and NYI only ~ 2 points, so NYI can be our first matchup... and you keep telling me they are bone crunchers. Oh and 1 word: TrotZ - No thanks...:help :cry
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 26, 2020 at 1:57 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 1:14 p.m.
Thread: WTF is this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Tampa's defense is fine and tougher than you think. It was a fluke fall and a rocket from Malkin that hurt Rutta and McD. Rutta has been vastly improved this year and has been a very solid defensive dman on the right side. Granted having Hedman as a partner is quite nice, but Rutta has held his own just fine. McD and Cernak are still a good shutdown 2nd pair, Cernak slumped a bit in the 1st half but has lately found his game again. Sergachev has taken many steps forward this year and Shattenkirk , while not great defensively, is still fine on the 3rd pair. Many of the dmen you mentioned would've been fine, but JBB was not going to trade for a rental and the 2 or 3 main guys with term would've cost far too much and Tampa would not have been able to afford their cap hit next year without basically guaranteeing losing one of Serg or Cirelli, which is unacceptable.

Tampa's big problem lately in the playoffs has been a lack of offense in big moments, not terrible defense. Not looking at last year, every other big series before where Tampa lost was because the top 6 went silent and Tampa didnt have the depth scoring to save it. Tampa also didn't have the size and grit to p l.j a yh a more physical, punishing game when the refs swallow the whistles more. They have now addressed both and have an offense that is capable to win different ways. The price was high, but JBB recognized what he believed was the weakness that needed to be addressed.

I wish the pick Tampa got back was Colorado's 2md or San Jose's early 3rd, as the loss of 20-25 or ~35 picks would have been easier to digest than the ~50 pick drop it will be, but Tampa has done very well in the mid rounds finding gems and even in a deep draft like this one, with Tampa's pick being where it would have been, at best a 50/50 chance that player makes a meaningful contribution within 3 years. JBB will likely recoup assets anyway this summer so it's not as though Tampa won't get picks back. JBB is playing a game where he has given Tampa a better chance now while slightly mortgaging the future. He is also working on keeping the team a contender 3 years down the line which these moves also help with.

I have never been a big fan of Cooper, so if the Lightning fail again I am 100% behind his ouster. I believe he is a good coach but no longer necessarily the right fit for this team. I hope he proves me wrong but if not, if look at Gallant perhaps if he's still available. With yhe.moves JBB made, he has clearly signaled that the time is right now and so another failure should mean a coaching change and if then still no success, perhaps a change in GM as well.</div></div>

Oh yes, we agree on a lot of things, i know Rutta is better then in :blackhawks( + i just saw today Koekoekk and he played hopelessly like i expected vs Blues - he is still bad :( ), <strong>But will Rutta be better in the playoffs? VS top team's top lines in tryhard mode + physical style. Not reg-season style of soft games...</strong>
You cannot base your evaluation on those games future playoffs performances...
My answer: He will be not good "enough" for a cup run... i hope i'm wrong obviously... but the eyetest to me in hard-fought physical matches shows = he is not good.

I'm talking about playoffs hockey, where every small mistake = you lose 1 game most likely.
<strong>Do you understand the difference between Rutta playing good(from the eyetest) vs Ottawa/Anaheim/1 meaningless Colorado game(just random examples) vs when we meet Caps + Mr. Tom "publicenemy Nr. 1" Wilson + possible Perfection line vs Boston in 2nd round. </strong>

Also i heard :islanders plays dirty in the playoffs too, if we meet and their coach is Barry "godtier" Trotz, who outcoaching Cooper in latest years...
What if we meet :stars in the finals? Have you watched the games this year vs them. We looked uncomfortable out there. Result 0-2 sweep for them this year... They play dirty , like Radulov + Jamie Benn ( almost just got suspended for a dirty hit)
You see where i'm going with this. If we would've gotten a guy like Dillon. He would've helped us a lot on the D-men front or a guy like Josh Manson... some of our forwards were rookies i know... but u cant have every 12 forward perfect... so it's alright to get 2 heavy hitter forward, who good on the pk/checking/clutch moments/energizers...


So back to Rutta and the "Enforcer type guys &amp; dirty physical teams"... They will just push him away from the middle or from the net and we allow 1+ goal for free...
But like a guy like Dillon, who is super physical and plays dirty and he pushes Kucherov to the ice and doesn't even get penalized for it? REFEREES are just plain r*tard*d in the playoffs. That's so bad for our team's long term success...

I just checked couple days ago the last 5-6 years overall points stats in reg season i wrote the stats in other post...
All teams almost has already!!! minimum 1 cup except :bruins and :lightning.
I wonder why? Oh yeah, because we never play like those teams together with boston... Boston is not that physical as other people say... they easily lost to Blues last year after easy 3 series...
Our tripping = penalty. Their Holding = game on... then eventually we lose... because 1 penalty / game = such a huge momentum change potentially and they allow every holding/interefence to go without punishment.
So that's why i'm starting to see the value in Goodrow the more days are passing since the trade happend. He will come handy in playoffs. But i feel our D-Core is just not good enough for a cup run ...
I wish Bogosian would be good, i wish man... other people call him = super trash in every forum i see.. it's not hopeful... but i'm still praying he will be "useful" in playoffs...

Anyways back to the Goodrow trade...
I wrote a long post about the 2 trades combined in other topic. And it comes out as a package deal:
middle 1st round + early 2nd round + early 2nd round for Coleman/goodrow package.
Not even that bad, if u analyze a little deeper. Between pick Nr 26th vs pick Nr 35th not much of a difference... Much smaller than pick Nr3 vs pick Nr 10...
But still both trades a big win for the other team... unless we win the cup in 2020 or in 2021 ( doubtful). Yes as a tampa fan i expect us to win it, but that's not the reality...

You always have to look it from a neutral perspective: Our D-Core has huge leaks = we have random chance of winning.(1 in 9 right now)
Yes i know, 10 games winning streak x 2 is a good sign for a cup win, but it's not a guarantee, when the referees will just take away their whistles and our team will have injury problems after 15 games in the playoffs...

Yes i know in theory we can get lucky, like last year's Boston and make the finals without playing "hard physical teams", where we have insane win %.
Like i have no doubt we win vs non-metro + non-central teams... or like the NYR/Panthers if they make it... we are king of the atlantic + we have like insane win % vs pacific teams... we are better than those teams.(usually they dont have a good goalie).Arizona has but they dont have elite forwards... kessel is regressing... hall = injury prone etc...

Other topic I wanna show you this list i made. In () are the expected playoffs results based on my calculations + season series + past history...
I watch often other games in the NHL as well... so i know every team basically... i know the main strength + weakness of every team...
If you think i'm wrong in any playoffs results, please share your thoughts.

<em>Physicality list NHL 2019-2020:
01. STL(0-4)
02. Washington(2-4)
03. Dallas(4-3)
04. Columbus(4-2)
05. Philadelphia(3-4)
06. NYI(4-3)
07. Anaheim(4-0)
08. TBL
09. Boston(4-3)
10. LA(4-1)
11. Pittsburgh(4-3)
12. Colorado(4-3)
13. VGK(3-4)
14. Calgary(4-2)
15. Ottawa(4-0)
16. NYR(4-0)
</em>
Who is not on the list---&gt; We probably win that series :)

So 03. Dallas(4-3) means = Dallas is 3rd most physical team in the NHL - and we will win the stanley cup finals 4-3 vs them.
You could ask? But why am i predicting a win---&gt; when we went 0-2 this year vs dallas?
Because the west is a bloodbath, and they will be "beat up" in june.
They play a hard style of hockey... and they are not a young team... so by the time they make it to finals... they will be out of gas/lots of injuries/fatigue/focus problems...
They can't play super-sayian mode vs us like Columbus did last year in round 1 or what they did in the reg season this year... Example from last year:
fresh Columbus-Tampa 4-0
vs
tired Columbus-Boston 2-4

You could ask? But why will Tampa be fresh in the finals?
Because based on my predictions, we only make the finals , if we avoid the worst matchups(Washington-Philly-Islanders).
So if we avoid these teams, we will be fresh. And we probably lose vs these teams anyways... so not worth to calculate what happens when we play these teams...
Odds are, we are out... we will just get outgrinded... Only 2 players,Goodrow+Coleman probably doesn't help... need more...

Yes i wrote a 4-3 win over Islanders but that's probably just wishful thinking on my part... i hope they will fail to make the playoffs with some miracle... I just hope they will be tired from the defensive grind in 2020 may, if we meet them... Trotz!!! probably beats us... so that matchup is just probably bad... Cooper just can't find a new strategy, when we losing badly vs good defensive teams...

Here is my current Stanley-Cup finals + winner predictions:
East :capitals
Vs.
West :goldenknights



<strong>Winner:</strong> :goldenknights

Dark Horse: flyers ( i want to avoid them 1st+2nd playoffs round like plague- so please no Pres trophy...)

Also before season i thought :blues never doing a repeat run, but now i think they are playing super amazing hockey again. So back2back cup = possible.... Good for them,if they do it...

Currently i don't think my 2 fav teams are making it. Avs has too many injuries the whole year = gonna be even worse in playoffs = almost hopeless + non-elite goalies doesn't help them... and you already know why i don't predict Tampa in the finals... Although with luck we might be there. Fingers crossed ;)
TBL vs VGK = would be amazing finals :cheers
I would put Tampa currently only 4th favorite only. If we would've traded for a shutdown reliable D-man: I would have put tampa in 1st place = Top favourite
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 26, 2020 at 11:50 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Especially when the refs swallow the whistles.

It's like a WR catching a pass over the middle. If the knows the hit is coming his arms shorten. The ball becomes the least of his worries. It's no different in hockey. You stop reaching for that puck, you turn faster, you push the puck faster causing mistakes. It ends up in bad play. Next thing you know, you aren't playing your game.</div></div>

This is exactly what happend last years vs :bluejackets.
But!!! all other series in previous years, i don't remember these things. Even in the game 6-7 series vs Wsh a year before, we were just out of gas. Like we had nothing in the tank. We scored 0 goals in 2 games. LUL Great way to play the game...

When we made a finals like 5 years ago vs :blackhawks , they were the better team, it was obvious(like we had a young and up&amp;coming Kucherov vs their already superstar status players + they were over the salary cap(borderline cheating - cap circumvention --&gt; huge advantage in the finals)

Ref's were "normal" to me in most of the previous series i watched over the year vs us, maybe i just haven't watched them close enough, because we kept winning(usually we don't get swept)...

So anyways, in CBJ series, the referees let them(whole columbus soldier army) do anything they wanted. Holding/Grabbing/Interference/Boarding/Cross Checking/Roughing... the list goes on...
Like how :blues won the cup. They hit hard and borderline "dangerous", like legion of boom in NFL couple years ago, like Kam Chancellor. Who won the super bowl that year? YES, ofc the Seahawks. The dirty team...
They made pass interference on 50% of plays, like Sherman... what the referees did? No flags on 95% of the plays...
I'm a Saints fan, so you got it, that i fed up completely with the referees in the NFL. I Don't even care anymore after last 2-3 years... I'm just laughing about them, and expecting the same trend continuing...
Rip Saints in next year too. Sean Payton loves them LUL :laugh :laugh :laugh

So anyways back to :nhl .
In theory it should be a penalty every 3rd move/hit these "tough type of teams" make, cause it's not in the rule books to injure every player with dirty hits or interefere with a non-puck carrying player when he almost has a good scoring chance... You know what i mean...
But the refs don't want to give 20 penalties/ game to only 1 team( Blues/Blue Jackets + Capitals this year... i have never seen the NYI play that dirty but if u say so i can add the to the list..., so they just rather don't give any over the normal 3/game --&gt; in playoffs it goes down to 2.5/game...
Let's collect these teams, which borderline cheating, by the help with the dear "NHL approved referees":
:capitals
:blues
:stars
:islanders
:flyers ( based on regular season, this team is the next one who doesn't respect the rules)
:bluejackets(if they did it in previous years it makes sense, i never payed any attention to them in prev years... they looked to me like a neverending loser team... i remember how they wasted Rick Nash in those years... same as Arizona in recent history... When will :coyotes win 1 playoffs series haha... maybe this year? i have my doubts... even though they just beat us 7-3, after last year's 7-1 in their home...

Any other "dirty teams" u can name? In the playoffs? So at least i know that i should prepare to lose vs them if we are not up to the task to handle them...
Goodrow looks good in this area from the 1st game. He is almost caused a concussion to a TML defender jeez... these guys hit hard... it was not a penalty... but that guy who got the hit got almost "KO"-d... :hushed
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 11:09 a.m.
Forum: NHL TradesFeb. 26, 2020 at 10:58 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lord_Simek</b></div><div>From a Sharks fan. Goody emerged this year as one of the elite penalty killers. Sharks have had the best PK in the league all year and a lot of that is due to Goody. He is versatile enough to play on top six (in emergency) and he sticks up for his teammates. He’s a great forechecker and is pretty good at face offs. I’m pretty shocked he got us a 1st but Tampa isn’t getting nothing in return. He’s signed thru next season at 925k. Sharks fans are pretty sad to see him go, he scored one of the most iconic sharks goals against Vegas in game 7 last playoffs. He was undrafted and had to work really hard to get where he is.

You paid a high price for him but he will seriously help your depth in the playoffs and kill penalties with aplomb. Not a great trade for TB but the fans there will appreciate him thoroughly.</div></div>

Thanks dude for the input, seeing him in the first game was refreshing, looks like indeed he is like a Coleman type energizer guy. He hit someone D-men first game, who almost got a concussion.
The hit was so big, but not against the rules... Will come in handy in the playoffs, so we don't get humiliated by the likes of Tom Wilson/Hayes/Reeves types of guys...
His PK skills looks sweet also, i knew about SJ killing it this year on the PK. But i knew they wouldn't keep up the 95% PK the whole year hahaa.... that was insane stat for lots of games earlier in the season...

Wish we could've acquired Dillon as well. I liked his playstyle in :capitals from the game i watched... He was so cheap, almost like under market value... Look solid.

As for Game 7's - Looks like our GM went for Justin " Mr. Game 7" Williams type of players. We also got Maroon, who scored big goal in some :sarcasm "unknown" :sarcasm game 7 hahaaaa :tearsofjoy

I think i figured it out, seeing the press conference with BriseBois after trade deadline. I think he is preparing the team for next year by selling Yanni Gourde/Alex Killorn. And probably we keep Tyler Johnson.
That's my current guess:
<em>Alex(wing)/Yanni(c) out --&gt; Coleman(wing)/Goodrow(c) in</em>

Looks like our scouts really watched Goodrow/Coleman for 40 games each this season... so they had both of these players are Nr. 1 priority at all costs...
Well the price was:1st round x 2 + 2nd.
As i already told in the last topic. Nolan Foote is a 2nd round pick and he is not NHL ready for years... If we don't pick him, he goes to like 35-40th place...
He needs to work a lot in lots of areas, before he becomes a middle six - or top9 forward in the :nhl

Also if you look at the other 1st round pick, it's most likely the same as an early 2nd round. There is not much difference between pick Nr. 26 vs pick Nr. 35.
It's not like it's top3 vs top 10, where top 3 99% is elite player vs top 10 = can be often bust/non elite like a medium skilled top6 guy or a top4D.
So almost 1st + 2nd+2nd the price, and we got back a 3rd in the Goodrow trade anyways...

<strong>So 1st round(middle-Vancouver pick like 20th) + 2nd round(early) +2nd round(early) for Coleman+Goodrow "combo".</strong>
It's not even 100% that from all of those 3 picks combines 2 solid NHL'er will come out in 5 years...
So for us it's not that important, because our window is until our main pieces not regressing. Max 5 years... there are couple players who already like around 29-30 years old...
Not the end of the world i guess if you analyze it a little deeper than the average Joe on the internet who only sees 1st round pick = god tier vs Goodrow = career 4th liner...
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 26, 2020 at 10:20 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pensfan89</b></div><div>Ughhh don’t remind me that my gm made that trade. Everyone is saying it was cause Kahun was pricing himself out. I keep telling people that he is an RFA and that bridge can be crossed in the offseason. The guy was on fire on the second line before he got concussed. Going for a cup run, you don’t trade a 2nd liner for two guys that were healthy scratches at points on buffalo 😂. I don’t see Rodrigues even being in the top 12 when ZAR gets back (provided no more injuries). I can’t see Sheary being in it if Bjugstad ever gets back either. Seemed like the Panarin for Saad trade except with lesser players lol.</div></div>

Imagine :penguins with Panarin right now! I would be scared to death hahaa:laugh
NYR &amp; him on fire this year. And he was insane vs us last year in playoffs round1 as well. I don't think Coleman+Goodrow on same level, so i don't think we win the cup, but we'll see.
Bookies says right now: We have 1 in 9 chance to win... At least it's better than the deafult 1 in 16...
This Bogosian "kid" doesn't look too good based on the first match Vs :mapleleafs
We should've went for Vatanen when we traded for Coleman... That wouldn't have been hard to negotiate based on what we gave up ( huge overpayment). They didn't get him too much value afaik...

At least the advanced stats say: we only give up like 5 high danger scoring chances with Bogosian in the 3rd pair in the whole match. Result: allowed 4 goals... Unlucky match... But at least we are one step further from the president's trophy hahaha. Looks like a curse. :bruins doing as well their best not to win it hahahaaa. All the top teams losing last few games in east. It's so funny. Just avoid that curse at all costs LUL
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 25, 2020 at 3:58 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pensfan89</b></div><div>But is it the best he could do? I mean he had a 1st which he gave up for Goodrow. Gustafson wasn’t the greatest but only cost a 3rd, cheaper than bogo cap wise, and much better offensively.</div></div>

Don't tell me dude, i'm really mad at him...(the Vasi contract almost 10 mill $ extension was nothing compared to this)
I wrote long posts about our GM and his lack of aquiring D-mens in this last 10 days in other threads...
It's painful... Now we have to rely on Rutta. Who chicago fans said are horrible.
Same with Schenn, and unfortunately, Coburn's contract is an albatross now...
Praying that Hedman will be injury free whole playoffs...

Our D-core in shambles because of injuries(like last years playoffs) and yes, that's the best he could do other than the panic move to get Goodrow...
I don't get it and probably i will never will understand this trade. I don't think anyone though we needed another forward... We had Verheaghe playing well + Stephens... If injury, we could rely on Joseph...
Yes if 10 injuries, then we were in trouble on the forward front, but the season is done anyways at that point---&gt; check Columbus

Couple years ago we got JT miller + McDonagh in a package, that was so sweet, i wanted something similar.

from :sharks :
Like Goodrow + Thornton + Dillon in a package for a 1st+ 2nd+prospect

from :ducks :
Grant + Manson in a package for like 2x1st round picks + 1 prospect etc...(if Manson if super expensive)

from :senators :
Ennis+Namestnikov+Borowiecki in a package deal for a 1st

Gustaffson/Dillon/Demelo all good options you are right, he missed on all of them. Namestnikov for a 3rd round would have been also insane pickup... Colorado got him(my 2nd fav team ) for a lot less... Easy to outbid them... With the way we go allin this year...

I would have rather payed more for a defender, than for any forward after the Coleman trade...
Well that's life, fingers crossed we can still beat your team come playoffs time. 4-3 tampa, my current guess, if i were a betting man.
I'm sure you thinking the same, except opposite results, hahaaa... :cheers

At least your gm did the same bad thing(from my POV): trading away a middle6 useful guy Kahun for questionable pieces coming back.
What's your opinion about that trade? Good/bad? Is Kahun done for the year or what?