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Fleurdelille

Fleurdelille
Member Since
Jun. 2, 2016
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Philadelphia Flyers
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2023 at 12:37 p.m.
Thread: Outside fan looking in
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>worldwidesensei</b></div><div>BUF has no need for Boeser. We need RHD, so Joker going the other way makes no sense. And that trade package is wayyyyyyy too much.

Boeser 18 goals, nets 2 former 1sts and a 2nd, while Olofsson scores 28 goals, costs $1.9mm less, and only gets a 3rd. Please help me understand that reasoning.

Bryson for a 6th is also baffling.</div></div>

Boeser been has going through troublesome covid and tragically personal stuff with his father. Could benefit from a change in scenery. I can adjust values but you cant convince me Olofsson brings more value to any team. Boeser has more upside. I believe his best years could be in front of him with the right situation

Bryson was a massive liability last season. With a better D Buffalo makes the playoffs. Bryson and Ilybushkin pairing alone lost Buffalos games. You dont do Levi any favors exposing him to more of that defense.

Joki has some offense and questionable defense. While he is young and has some value he's not the kind of player I think Sabres needs. Especially not with power and Dahlin on the team
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 3, 2023 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: EDM TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>Obviously no other GM has actual interest in Josh Anderson, the only people who have brought it are Hughes himself, Peirre Lebrun, Elliot Friedman, Darren Dreger, Frank Serivalle, Bob Mackenzie and just about every other insider and expert.

I get how fans of other teams are weary of his trade value discussions on here but Habs fans are literally being told by just about every talking head that's it been confirmed other teams have interest in Josh Anderson, so I don't get why the skepticism on this site about his value</div></div>

I think Pittsburgh acquiring Rakell is a good comparison. For me, I considered the 1st the add to the trade. I could see a prospect too, but I dont you will get anything massive. We are bound to see eventually though. What are your personal opinion, is his play warranting a 1st this year?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21, 2020 at 5:55 a.m.
Thread: EDM MIN AA
Why wouldnt Edmonton just trade that for Dumba straight up if MN was interested. Oilers has plenty of Braccos. They'd get a younger player for multiple years on his contract at a reasonably cost controlled price. Sure, Dumba has not had a full offseason of training to get back to his game after the injury, but Barries best days are behind him while Dumba's isnt. Plus he has a physical aspect to his game.

Unless Larsson signs elsewhere as a UFA I really struggle to see why Edmonton would trade for a right-handed defensemen at all though.

Bear has won his spot. Larsson plays tough minutes. Bouchard is the organizations future top pair RD. And Edmonton has depth guys that can step in as 4th RD.

For the short-term, Edmonton isn't close enough to win to trade for a rental they dont even want to re-sign.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 9, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.
Thread: Yahoo Fantasy Standard Draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilsince95</b></div><div>I am betting on some rookies and sophomores, its fun that way. Took another probable starting goalie at the expense of a forward so I can ensure I almost always get goalie points by rotating them on and off the bench. My team wouldn't beat yours for the cup but...on fantasy points my team has the potential to explode I feel, depending on the rooks and sophomores:

Marchand - Point - Rakell
DeBrincat - Scheifele - Sam Reinhart
B. Tkachuk - P.L. Dubois

Seth Jones - Chabot
Spurgeon - Ellis
Makar

Bobrovsky
Dybnyk
Korpisalo</div></div>

Makar/Chabot could be great bets, Point/DeBrincat is bound to continue to play with superstars. The biggest question mark to me is Bobrovsky. Will he get good support from his defense? If Bobrovsky is the Vezina caliber version he will have better numbers than my goalies. If he slumps that's a big problem. That's something I like about picking Vasilevsky, his team is so good it's unlikely he'll have slumping numbers
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 28, 2019 at 4:36 p.m.
Thread: EDM fans I have questions for you
Combination of failing to develop draft picks after the 1st round (historically) and (mainly) Chiarelli absolutely butcherings Oilers depth by losing substaintial value in trade after trade is the biggest reason we suck.

Here is an exercise to give you an idea on how bad Oilers depth is.

If you remove the top 5 goal scorers on every team (last season for Oilers; McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Chiasson, Kassian), Oilers scored the least amount of goals of any team in the league. By a massive margain. In fact, Oilers depth scoring was so bad that it last season qualified as the worst depth scoring of any team in +40 years (cant remember exactly but I think in 48 years).

It was so bad that you could add a 10 goal scorer to 2018/19 Oilers and they would still have the worst depth scoring in that time period.

Chiarelli traded away roster players and got bad value back every time. When his back was against the wall he scorched the earth in an attempt to keep his job. Because we fail to promote players from our youth club we had nothing on the wings.

1. Draisaitl and McDavid are dynamic together like few others. If RNH actual had 2nd line wingers good enough to help him push offense it would be a great idea.

2. At this point there is none to replace him. Oilers would need to find a replacement. Given that he is soon UFA and the return for him would be unsatisfactory, I'd say no. Unless management dont think he will re-sign

3. Nurse had a good year and is a top 4 defender with potentional and trajectory to be top 2. He likes to carry the puck but he doesnt always have stellar decisionmaking.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 26, 2019 at 3:54 p.m.
Thread: Bergevins playbook on crack
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Sergachev played a LOT of PP minutes in his rookie year, yet was the most sheltered defenseman in the league at 5v5. This is exactly the way I see Bouchard being handled. And the only reason Sergachev didn't play on the 1st PP unit much was because he's blocked by Hedman. Playing with your team's top skill and with a man advantage is the very easiest minutes you can give a young player.


I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?

I was comparing Gostisbehere to Benning rather than Klefbom because Klefbom plays the hardest competition, Ghost and Benning do not. Apples-to-oranges, get it? Gostisbehere's scoring rate for the past 3 seasons is 0.84 P/60 at 5v5. Matt Benning's scoring rate while playing similar comp is 0.91 P/60. Benning also won his minutes with a 55.65 GF%, while Gostisbehere lost his at 46.55%.

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/233122">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/233122</a>

<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&amp;thruseason=20182019&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=y&amp;team=PHI&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=0&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&amp;thruseason=20182019&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=y&amp;team=PHI&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=0&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL</a>




But you're not doing that - you're trading cost-controlled Klefbom + a good prospect for Ehlers. I don't have a problem targeting Ehlers, but (a) Klefbom+ is too much to pay, and (b) Ehlers isn't a replacement for RNH since he can't play center.</div></div>


I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 24, 2019 at 1:35 a.m.
Thread: Bergevins playbook on crack
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Comparing Gostisbehere to Klefbom without taking into account the fact that Klefbom plays 1st pair competition while Ghost plays 3rd pair is always going to give you a false impression, which is why I compared his scoring to that of Matt Benning.

Is this an outlier year for RNH? He has averaged 58 points per 82 games throughout his career. If you look at his "5v5 P/60" scoring rates you'll see that 2018-19 was his 4th best year out of 8. So essentially, career average scoring. His TOI was up by almost 2 minutes per game and he played all 82 - that's where the increase came from.

EW's valuation chart shows RNH to be worth $7,916,808 on an 8 year deal. Gostisbehere is worth $6,128,899 at 8 years, although EW projects that he's unlikely to receive an 8-year deal, showing him at $5,718,637 x 6 instead. That's nearly a $2M loss in value.

Ehlers and Klefbom have very close actual value, with Klefbom holding the edge in 7 of the 8 years. For instance, Ehlers' current value is listed as $5,766,240 x 4, whereas Klefbom is listed as having $5,821,558 over the same term.

So you can see how you've traded away value here.

- You've essentially traded a very good 2C and replaced him with a very good 2LW which is a positional loss in value - RNH can play 2LW just as well as Ehlers can but he can also play C, something that Ehlers cannot do. Also, you're losing something on the defensive side of the puck at 5v5.
- You also moved the team's 1LD and replaced him with a 3LD / PP specialist - right at the time that Bouchard is coming in to run the PP. Gostisbehere makes more money than Klefbom and isn't nearly as good, and his PP acumen won't be put to full use on this team anyhow. That's a SERIOUS downgrade defensively.</div></div>

You gotta ask yourself if RNH really is the guy we want to be overplaying? I'd much rather see Draisaitl and McDavid be our Crosby and Malkin.

If you are asking rookies to come in and be the #1 PP guy off the bat I think you are asking too much. Isn't this a problem Oilers has had historically for how many years? Look to TBL's usage of Sergachev instead. Thats what believe serves Bouchard best.

You are the one wanting to talk about 5v5 production, you're the one talking smack about how Ghost can get points but mostly on the powerplay, and that he produces at the same rate as Benning(not true). Don't dodge, why does your "1st pair" defenseman have egregious 5v5 production in comparison? The guy had worse production then Larsson. If you want an argument about it then give me some answers (don't actually).

The truth is we look to advanced stats for mathematical certainty, but really, advanced stats are only a part of the picture. NHL isn't MLB where it's batter against pitcher, although we tend to use advanced stats as if it was. Specific advanced stats says even less about a player, clearly, because Klefbom a better defender then that.

I think committing 8M for 8 years to RNH would be a massive error, which is the whole point of the trades. If anything, your obscure evaluation charts only helped put a number on it. I think if we can convert 1 RNH year to 4 cost controlled Ehlers years, we're in a much better position.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 22, 2019 at 5:54 p.m.
Thread: Bergevins playbook on crack
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Ghost cannot defend and will always be worth less than a complete player. He can get points but mostly on the power play. He plays 3rd pair in PHI and scores at a similar rate to Matthew Benning.

MEH.</div></div>
That one dimension is really great though, when it's clicking.

5V5P/60. Who do you think is Klefbom and who do you think is Ghost below?
0.85 1.2
0.85 0.49
0.59 1.06
0.64 0.91

To say he can only produce at PP is incorrect.

This was Ghost for RNH though. Is this year an Outlier for RNH? He has 1 60 point season in 9 years, despite playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle. The narrative is that he's good defensively but if you look at Oilers PK this year he has terrible numbers (suggesting he is actually making the PK worse). He's not spectacular at the dot.

I love RNH but I think you are being biased.

*edit* to add to that, the suggestion is mostly about not having to commit to RNH's salary raise while Oilers don't have the depth to be truly competitive. By the time Oilers can truly be in discussion playoff success, RNH's best years will be gone

I think Oilers will need to commit to Draisaitl as 2C. RNH may not be a good enough 2C to win the cup in the latter half of his contract.