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Flyers2000

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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14, 2021 at 12:35 p.m.
Thread: Rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Dude. I know it has been a disappointing season, but this is a massive overreaction.</div></div>

Ideally we could salvage all this, but the pieces we need are high end ones and idk how easy it will be to get them, plus the timing is looking bad with Carolina becoming great, the Isles looking better than I gave them credit for, the Pens and Caps having juice in the tank, the Rangers on the rise. Then you obviously have Tampa and Toronto in the Atlantic, Florida looking a lot better than I would have thought, Montreal on the rise, Boston seems to be declining but they still have juice in the tank. Feels like we have to be truly great (even better than 2019/20) if we want to come out of the East and idk how easy it will be to do that in the offseason. The East is peaking, and with some of the high end talents in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, maybe now is the time to call it quits for 2-3 seasons in hopes of getting that high end talent and building for 4-5 years down the line
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 30, 2021 at 2:38 p.m.
Thread: Does the Quantity Equal Quality
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>True, but add in the prospects and picks for those upgrades. As for Oleksiak and a top 4 RD I would just look for that in UFA or another trade. With only sanheim and hart and partick to re-sign, we have enough money. Dealing ghost for picks, would allow a Savard or top RD UFA or signing Ullmark as a UFA.

Collectively you've dealt 5 starters, 5 good prospect and picks, let UFAs walk and acquired just 4 guys. Thats a ton of stuff to give up. Again I dont think you have to give up so much for a 1RD or a 1C, I think the team is better with TK, Patrick and Myers than it is with Eichel.</div></div>

The UFAs I made walk weren't needed at all and there's only so much room for our prospects. We have so much depth that we should be looking to shed some quantity for some quality. Maybe I went overboard but the Flyers do have the depth to replace essentially any players they'd lose. It's not like there's many players on that team that would not be here for 5+ years either
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 30, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.
Thread: Does the Quantity Equal Quality
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Nice ideas, but you are getting close to gutting the system for two players. As far as Ellis, I think something like Tyson Foerster or Morgan Frost, 2021 PHI 1st (probably mid round), Ghost (who's playing well on both sides of the puck and isn;t too bad of a contract or risk), and either Emil Andrae or Eliot Desnoyers or LD Mason Millman. Thats 2 really good prospects, a good pick and a player (and still a bit of a overpay IMO). NASH would possibly want more, but its pretty fair.

Ellis is on a 6.25mil deal for 6 more years at 29 yrs old and has an injury history. Im just not sure hes worth TWICE as much in trade as a RD Savard or a Matt Dumba, or just waiting for UFA when 6.25 mil goes a long ways.</div></div>

That's completely fair. This team has so much depth that they are in a position where they should be giving up quantity for some more quality. Maybe I overdid it and maybe the players I chose to get back were not the right ones, but this is personally the type of deals I'd want the team to make if they had the chance
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 30, 2021 at 11:35 a.m.
Thread: Does the Quantity Equal Quality
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>And the Ellis deal is pure over payment from PHI.

Last years number 1 pick in Foerster
a number 1 pick
blue chip 2nd round pick in Brink
emil Andrae, a rising mid level prospect
and a serviceable Ghost is a lot for a 29 yr old with injury history.

I really like Ellis, but dont think hes worth 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, at their advanced stage of development.</div></div>

This was nice to hear. Apparently they want a lot for Ekholm so I assumed I needed more for Ellis. Was not sure how much and tried to compensate for the fact that I am biased. Perfectly fine with overcompensation over undercompensation. I will say that Ghost was simply for cap reasons. That could've just as easily been a separate deal, although you might argue it's still too much
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 20, 2019 at 10:01 a.m.
Thread: Hexy come back
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dmh1055</b></div><div>I don't agree that if they did nothing they would be better. I also don't believe that good teams win by only building through the draft and or trades. It's a 3 prong building process. Hayes is a good type of UFA to add. The Flyers have a glaring hole in the 2C role. Patrick has not yet been good enough to play there. Hayes will be. He's also only 27 so the risk of him falling off is much less and he's played a lot less games than most 27 year olds so I like his odds of playing well into his age 33 and 34 seasons even if his role diminishes to line 3 by then. The Flyers don't have much in the way of center prospects coming. Frost has played center but all indications are he's viewed as a wing at the NHL level which is common for junior age players. Simon Gagne was a center in junior and moved to wing as a example.

I thought last year made it clear that Provorov and Sanheim needed help. Myers didn't show he was ready for Top 4 NHL minutes yet and Gudas is overmatched in that role. I believe they're getting it in a similar fashion the Flyers added Derian Hatcher and Jason Smith. They're not long term commitments either which is good.

Fletcher has made solid moves to improve the team immediately. He also did nothing to handcuff the team from signing the important cornerstone young players they have. The moves may have a feel of underwhelming because there's no star. But it's good players. Hayes adds 50 to 60 points that didn't exist last season. If Patrick breaks out for the same we may be talking about a high seed in the standings and a deep playoff run next year. We're no longer asking the young players to make the team okay. We're asking the young players to lead the team from okay to great and the time is now. That's what these moves symbolize.</div></div>

Just so things are clear, I am not saying we would be a better team without these additions than we are with these additions, I'm simply saying we would be better than last year regardless of the additions. With that being said

I'm fairly confident they would have been better. Last year we were extremely unlucky, stats prove it. Odds are we wouldn't get that unlucky again. The biggest improvement in terms of players would be in nets. Instead of using 8 goalies, most of which aren't NHL caliber, we would have Hart who even at his worse is better than what we had. Up front, had we not signed anybody, I'd be fairly confident in Frost and/or Farabee making the team and even if they aren't great, they'd be improvements over the guys like Lehtera, Weise, Varone and Knight. Losing those 4 is essentially addition by subtraction. Having a full season of Myers instead of A-Mac/Folin would do wonders. Youngsters would most likely improve. Provorov and Ghost would most likely play better than they did last year. We also have a better coaching staff. Not saying we would be Stanley Cup contenders, but even before these moves were made, I would bet on the team improving

As for last year's defense, Provorov had a down year, no doubt about it, but if you go to as recent as two years ago, he and Ghost were 1st pair d-men the way they played together. Feel like we should have used that pairing more this year in hopes to get them back on track. I disagree with the Gudas comment though. Dude has always faced 2nd pairing level of competition and he's always done well, at least from an analytics point of view. Dudes a number 4 which isn't spectacular but solid nonetheless. As for Myers, we just gotta hope he's good

I'm not saying I don't like the additions, don't get me wrong. If you asked me if I rather have Hayes, Braun and Niskanen or not have them at all, I'd obviously say I want them. They improve the team, no doubt about it. But if coming into the offseason you told me we'd spend 17 million dollars on additions, I'd be pretty disappointed to find out those were the 3 guys. It's pretty much all that bums me out, not because they aren't good or players we can use, just feels underwhelming. Maybe my expectations were too high, idk
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2019 at 12:06 p.m.
Thread: Ghost be here
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>markmws</b></div><div>Totally understand, however I never compared him to Mete, who is significantly younger and clearly does not bring the same skill-set as Ghost. Mete is not apart of this conversation. Ghost drives the play, and I like that. I am very happy when the puck is out of our zone. When it is in it, it becomes a circus. Fletcher has a tough job, as does his counterparts. He will have to improve his team offensively while staying under the cap. It's a very good team. One way to do this is by trading from strength, in this case his defensive depth. With Proporov, Sanheim, Myers, Morin, Ghost, Hagg, and Gudas, along with Mcdonald and Schlemko in the fold, they are in a position to either do nothing with their defense or trade for more offense. I wouldn't call someone dumb for making a trade, or not making a trade: People in those positions try their best and with the ability of hindsight we can judge their decisions.</div></div>

The comment I replied to, second paragraph, 1st line: “I think Mete, at least defensively, is already superior to Ghost.” Hence the reason I compared them both defensively. If you don’t want to do that, I could have always compared him to the rest of the league

You say Fletcher will have to improve the team offensively and one of the ways to do that is trading from strength. First off, I question how much of a strength our defense is considering it wasn’t great last year and Fletcher has also stated he wants to add to that unit. Nevertheless, trading the d-man with the most upside offensively isn’t the best way to get better offensively. Dude had 65 points last season. This year, the PP was extremely unlucky. Stats prove it, our GM said it. If it had average luck, Ghost probably has a season of just under 60 points and nobody is even thinking of trading him to improve the offense. You also mention the cap, which I agree is crucial. Only thing is Ghost is arguably on the best non ELC contract besides Couturier on this team. If you want to improve the team, he isn’t the guy you look at to trade

If you can get a better player than Ghost in a trade, you obviously do it. But once you start thinking too much about need and not about quality and value, that’s where the bad deals come in, JVR for Schenn, Hall for Larsson, those type of deals come to mind
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2019 at 3:14 a.m.
Thread: Ghost be here
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>markmws</b></div><div>I live in Philadelphia, and there are PLENTY of people who would be willing to offer Ghost a free ride to the airport: He is a dumpster fire in his own end. The trade off is that he is a very good puck mover. Those same people would throw a parade down Broad St. If the got Domi for Ghost.

I think Mete, at least defensively, is already superior to Ghost. The Canadians have a good one, there, and he seems well on his way to being a top-4. I am not sure Shaw alone would get that deal done: while Ghost is not the best in his own end, he IS a left-shot puck moving d-man, and they're rare. I would assume Shaw and Juulsan/Fleury would do it.</div></div>

Ghost's defense is underrated because people forget the best type of defense which is making sure the puck is not in your zone. Sure, once the puck is in our zone, Ghost isn't good. He's not physical enough to constantly win puck battles and his defensive coverage just isn't good. But the dude does such a good job at breaking up plays in the neutral zone and getting the puck out thus not needing to defend, which is the best type of defense. Offense is easier to judge because often times you can just look at points and you know more or less who is better offensively. Defense is tougher to judge because there isn't really a black and white stat for it. But analytics help us get a better idea of how one does defensively. Every one of the following stats is at 5v5

CA/60 which is how many shot attempts a player allows per every 60 minutes played
Ghost: 56.37
Mete: 59.97

HDCA/60 which is how many high danger chances a player allows every 60 minutes played since shot attempts don't tell the whole story
Ghost: 10.10
Mete: 10.72

xGA/60 which is how many goals each player is expected to allow for every 60 minutes played. It removes the effect bad luck or goaltending has on players since that isn't always equal
Ghost: 2.23
Mete: 2.29

If it wasn't obvious, lower is better. It's a clean sweep for Ghost. He suppresses shots at a better rate, allows less high danger chances and on an even playing field, would allow less goals. All this while having an extremely down year, which should be put in quotations, mostly because stats prove that the "down year" was mostly because of a horrifically bad PDO (puck luck)

Ghost was phenomenal in his rookie season, everybody loved him. Was bad in his second season, mostly because of injuries but we learned that after the fact so people became skeptical. He was phenomenal in his third year, ranked as a top 20 d-man in the NHL, even received Norris votes, everybody loved him. Gets unlucky in his 4th season, mostly on the PP causing his point totals to go down and now people want him traded. People are bandwagons, not only when it comes to teams but even when it comes to players. Your stats look good, they love you, they look bad, they hate you. But at the end of the day, if the Flyers want to be a better hockey team, trading Ghost isn't the way to go because it is very doubtful that you're getting a better player in return, especially in a trade with Montreal since their better players probably aren't on the block. If people want to be dumb, so be it. Hopefully one of those people is not Fletcher
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2019 at 10:20 p.m.
Thread: Ghost be here
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>skriko</b></div><div>mete has not even reached his ceiling, only reason you think ghost is that good was from 2 years ago when philly totally way over achieved ,true team showed up last year and now u dont have simmonds either ,good luck</div></div>

That isn't remotely true. Only reason I say it is because I live in Montreal so have seen many Habs games and I'm a Flyers fans so I stream many Flyers games and it's clear as day who will be the better player lol. Ghost had more points in an off year than Mete has in his career. In 4 seasons, Ghost has had two seasons where he played like a 1st pairing d-man and two seasons where he played like a 2nd pairing d-man. Offensively, Mete's best season IN JUNIOR was as good as Ghost's best season IN THE NHL. Dude doesn't even have a goal yet lol. And he was on the better team lmao. Mete should be a solid player, but he won't be on Ghost's level. Anybody with a brain can see that

Also go look at how Simmonds played in Nashville. Dude is past his prime. We should have traded him 2 years ago
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2019 at 10:13 p.m.
Thread: Flyers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>skriko</b></div><div>philly has 7 forwards signed as of now ,,last time i look into hockey they need 14 to have a team</div></div>

Yes, we have 7 forwards signed in Giroux, Couturier, Voracek, JVR, Raffl, Patrick and Lindblom. Raffl will be on the 4th line, the rest in our top 9. Hayes will most likely sign with us making it 8 forwards, including 7 in our top 9. Konecny is an RFA who will sign and play in our top 9. That's 9 forwards, 8 of which are in our top 9. Laughton is an RFA and will be our 4th line center. Hartman is also an RFA. He will either be on our third or fourth line. That's 11 of 12 starting forwards. Healthy scratches will be two of Bailey, Aubé-Kubel, Varone or Vorobyev. Frost or Farabee also have a chance to make the team. That's 17 possible forwards. At most, we can use 1 top 9 forward, that's it. I'll gladly take a player like Byron off the Habs hands, I won't take both Byron and Shaw though, especially not for Ghost
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 5, 2019 at 2:09 a.m.