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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 14, 2023 at 12:14 a.m.
Thread: Leafs path to McDavid 2026-27
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>No i believe in this scenario they don't even trade him as a rental. They somehow convince marner to sign a deal without a no move clause and then immediately trade him for 4 1sts of value. Because surely the kings if they wanted marner would rather trade all those assets for him instead of just signing him as a UFA themselves</div></div>

In 2026-27 (which the ACGM is supposed to represent), Marner would be in the second year of his new contract, doubt he signs a deal that doesn't have a NMC in the first few years (likely has a full one all the way through), so it would probably be more to convince him to waive for some other team but doubt he would. OP also gave McDavid 8-years but makes no mention of how that would happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 13, 2023 at 11:42 p.m.
Thread: EDM-DET The HollandYzerman Masterpiece Deal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SwarmChair</b></div><div>I actually tried structuring it so
Detroit is slightly favoured. But maybe I missed the mark.

Ghost went for a 3rd last year so goes for a 3rd this year. Fair value.
Blackwood went for a 6th last year and is younger/better than Reimer. So the 6th is for Reimer. Detroit wins on value here.
Berggren and Broberg is close to a 1for1 swap but Broberg is higher draft pedigree and younger in a more important position, so the difference between the prospects is where the 2nd for 4th swap comes in. Maybe slightly favoring Detroit?


I like this deal for the Oilers cause it allows us to fill two needs on the line up and we don’t have to make a stupid move moving Campbell out. Plus Ghost under Coffey could see another level. And our RW sucks with Brown.</div></div>

Blackwood just had his rfa rights moved in the summer, not a comparable deal even if you ignore that his time was done. TDL deals are going to be a lot different than trades in June because teams can just pick up those guys in FA on July 1st.

Reimer would be more of a 4th since he's doing well, but possibly a 5th at TDL. Age isn't a factor on rental goalies who are being brought in to patch a hole and not be a difference maker.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 13, 2023 at 1:13 a.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>The leafs made a mistake not getting term:
The leafs made another mistake by overpaying by about 4.5 million AAV combined or so on the term they did get
The leafs made a mistake of buying Tavares when they weren’t ready to compete yet.
Those are SEPARATE mistakes.

The mistake of not getting term and not buying those extra years was <strong>bailed out by Covid stalling cap prices</strong>. This made the immediate AAV savings they got more valuable and lessened the hit of the next contract turning the mistake into a benefit

<strong>The mistake of overpaying was amplified by the lack of cap increase. A mistake turning into a more meaningful mistake</strong>

You seem to be unable to separate the 2.</div></div>

If the mistake was amplified by the lack of cap increase, how did they get bailed out? I'm starting to see what you're trying to say, but it's wrong as you're thinking is flawed.

1) When you say the mistake was "amplified by the lack of cap space" that's true, and it's proof that Covid made them worse off than if the cap were rising. They didn't get a bailout in those years which is what it sounded like you were saying to me and Herb_Brooks.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you're saying "Covid bailed them out of their mistake, due to their next contracts coming in at a lower cap hit". The next two points address why that's a flawed way of thinking and ultimately untrue.

2) You're valuing getting what you think is a better deal on the next contract more than competing on the first one (i.e, getting value out of the current contract). You're saying it's okay that they suffered in those 3-years because after they got better deals (which they haven't yet).

3) Your idea of a better deal is merely having a lower AAV. Having a lower AAV doesn't necessarily mean they got a better deal. 13.25M with an 88.7M cap is the same as 14.93M with a 100M cap. Also, if the cap was regular now, let's say it was at 100M, and Matthews got 14.93M, it would likely be on an 8-year deal and not 5, because there is no anticipated significant jump in cap coming up. If by the end of Matthews' 5-year deal, the cap is 100M, he might take a smaller % of the cap and sign for like 14Mx8 (until he's 38), but now he's signed at the tail-end of his career for a lot more than he should probably get. So, even on the next contract they aren't better off like you thought they would be.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 13, 2023 at 12:00 a.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Ovi deal was barely even worth mentioning:
A) it was 13 years of term
B) ovi signed it in the middle of the season where he won the Hart, Rocket, and Art Ross all in the same year.

Marner surpasses the next highest RFA winger deal (even to this day) by 1.4 mill in AAV. You gave it to him after a season a where he didn’t even crack 30 goals, recieve a single hart vote, finish top 10 in points. AND you didn’t get full term.

Making someone the 7th highest paid player in NHL history at 22 after a season where they didn’t crack 30 goals, 100 points, and you bought out just 2 years of UFA is getting HOSED.

I think it might be one of the worst negotiating jobs of all time</div></div>

The point of me mentioning the Ovi deal is to show what would have happened to those cap hits over time. The question isn't whether the Leafs got hosed, it's how did COVID save the Leafs like you were claiming? Covid or no covid isn't going to change what they paid them, the only thing that it would have changed is the amount of cap they had after the fact.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>The overpay is a completely seperate topic. The fact that the leafs got hosed on all those negotiations is what makes people think Covid screwed them, when in reality it was giving out ridiculous contracts.

Paying out the 2nd, 6th, and 7th contracts in NHL history to a guy who wasn’t top 5, a guy who was maybe a top 10 C, and a winger who you have 4 years of RFA control on was going to screw you no matter what the cap did. And the fact that you didn’t get full term on Matthews, Marner, or Nylander made it even worse.

Nylander contract turned out well, but his production at the time said he deserved 6 tops.

Again.

Imagine if the leafs bought those extra 2 years on Marner and Nylander, and those extra 3 years on Matthews.

That is the alternative. Especially on a guy like Matthews you buy the extra years. Like if he wanted to he could have walked himself right to free agency and there’s nothing you could have done about it. But luckily the lack of cap space due to Covid meant that the money just isn’t out there for him to get a massive deal in UFA from another team.

Again, you didn’t get full term. If the cap went up that would have destroyed you on their new contracts. But the cap stagnated, bailing you out on those 3 deals</div></div>

The Leafs are getting/going to get destroyed on their next contracts because the cap is going up now, what do you mean? Matthews would have had a 14.5Mx8 deal instead of a 13.25Mx5 probably, his next deal could be 16MX8 and just look at how old he would be. So, the idea that COVID bailed them out is simply not true, it made them less competitive in those 3-years in particular and is going to cost them more.

You're saying to imagine a worse scenario, that doesn't change the fact that COVID did not help them.

In terms of overpaying, there wasn't anything wrong with the Nylander signing (similar deal to the Pastrnak deal but it's a slightly lower % - Pastrnak had 70 pts in 75 games, Nylander had two 61 pts in 82 game seasons, Connor got the same % as Nylander but additional year 57 in 76 and 66 in 82 under his belt, Jets got a better deal but Nylander's deal is still within reasonable range) except that it didn't happen before the season, which 1) meant the Leafs couldn't afford another holdout and 2) it affected Nylander's development. Getting the full 8-years on the Matthews deal would have been better but at the end of the day Matthews has been the top goal scorer since entering the League, so he had the leverage, he wasn't just "a maybe top 10 C". The biggest issue came with the Marner signing, the AAV was too high all because he had 1 more point than Matthews at that time in their career. They weren't going to have him miss games after the Nylander ordeal went down the season prior.

Worth noting though, that none of these guys just got paid off on one fabulous year, they had 3-years of solid production.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 11:40 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Schuyler</b></div><div>Hischier and Matthews are for sure worse than prime ovi and bergeron</div></div>

Ovi was only better than Matthews in his first 5-years (up to when he was 25), not his entire prime. Matthews' years 6-8 are better than Ovi's years 6-8.

You have Ovi (20-25 - y1 to y5) scoring at a 0.63 G/GP rate and 1.29 pts/GP
then you have Matthews (24 to 26 - y6 to y8) at 0.69 G/GP and 1.27 pts/GP
Matthews (19-24 - y1 to y5) 0.64 G/GP and 1.12 pts/GP
then Ovi (25-27 - y6 to y8) at 0.51 G/GP and 1.00 pts/gp

Ovi's y6 to y10 production is 0.57 G/GP and 1.01 pts/gp. So, while Ovi has peaked higher at faster than Matthews, it's a pretty fair assumption that through their first 10 seasons, Matthews is likely going to have the better numbers.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 11:31 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>So in order to bring in matthews NJD would need to build a significantly worse d core??

Or the other options are to shorten our window significantly by not getting term on mercer
or paying significant assets to sell Palat now even despite him playing fantastic with Nico&amp;Bratt and being a fantastic playoff performer and leader?

So what you're saying is to fit Matthews NJD would need to make themselves significantly worse both now and into the future?</div></div>

Not significantly worse, because NJ does not have Marcus Pettersson. It's the same defense at the least but again that's based on your signings. What could be available to Fitzgerald is not limited to your hypothetical. There is the potential to have a better defense but that doesn't mean that it would happen, and regardless that does not mean that bringing in Matthews would make the team far worse in the short-term. You're bringing in the top goal scorer in the League onto a team that has the current top point producer by rate in the League. You also have guys like Timo Meier and Mercer underperforming, you don't know how adding Matthews would help or not help with that. I would assume that overall the offense would be better though.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 11:18 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>You seem to be struggling with some basic principles of young RFAs:

When you have a young guy hit RFA, you can do 1 of 2 things.

Option 1: Bridge Deal/Intermediate
You don't get full term and you have to sign them to a newer, much more expensive deal when the contract is over, but in exchange you get a lower AAV in the short term, and protection in case of injury/fall off
Option 2: 8 year deal
You offer them the full 8 years, locking them up through their prime years (28-31 or so), at a very reasonable rate, locked in price in the late term. In exchange you have to pay them more while they're still developing and assume the risk if they get hurt. (these deals often look like steals later on if the player breaks out and asthe cap goes up)

In normal times, the pros and cons for both generally balance out, as the early payments on long terms deals as the cap rises to make them look like steals.

Teams trying to immediately contend, and more often on their less core pieces, will more often go for bridge deals to maximize their immediate winning potential.

Teams that are more rebuilding, or looking to build a long term window/build around a true core piece, will often opt for the 8 year deals, knowing that the short term payments will be outweighed as the cap goes up and they develop into steals of a contract.

So, when the leafs did not get full term on the 3, it lowered the AAV they'd have to pay over the life of those deals vs an 8 year extension.

Whereas with Edmonton's 2, the 8 year deals raised the AAV to pay off down the line as the cap went up.

Now, when the cap didn't go up, the market stagnated. This meant that the higher AAVs that Edmonton had to pay early were even more pricey than they thought, and the money they thought they'd save compared to an extension after a bridge was less. This significantly screwed them over.

Now, compared to the leafs, when the market stagnated, this meant that the early money they saved by not buying those extra years was even more valuable than they thought it would be, and the money they thought they'd have to pay on the new deals was less than they expected.

The confusion here comes from 2 things:

1: the leafs got hosed in negotiations regardless, paying what they should have on an 8 year deal AAV wise, without getting said term. So fans looking back don't see the AAV savings bc they overpaid compared to the market
2: the Tavares contract, which is a UFA contract and so is a different principle.

On Veteran Long term UFA contracts, you almost always know that the deal will be bad towards the end of it as players leave their primes.
So with these you get a bargain in the early years, and pay the piper in the later years.
This is the reason Orlov got 7.75x2, because the term was short and so they don't have to pay the piper when he's 37, so they pay now.

WIth the cap stagation, that later price gets more and more hefty as it's a higher % of the cap than you thought it would have been.

The marner deal is especially unfathomable.

Here's a list of RFA wingers to get more than 9.5 million dollars:
Ovi at 9.538 on a 13 year deal in 2008
Marner at 10.9 mill.

Especially at 22 years old, with 4 full years of RFA control. And still not getting full term.
That's unfathomably bad deal considering he had never even cracked 30 goals.

Tkachuk after his 42 goal 104 point season, much closer to UFA: 9.5x8
Kucherov 1 year away from UFA after his 40 goal 100 point season: 9.5x8
Rantanen after his 74 game, 31 goal, 87 point season: 9.25x6

BENT OVER</div></div>

No one is talking about whether the Leafs got hosed on negotiations or not. You claimed that Covid saved the Leafs which doesn't make any sense. How do you overpay, then get saved by the cap not going up? So, what I'm struggling with is not the concept of bridge deals and 8-year deals, but where you get the idea that the Leafs got saved by Covid after overpaying. I do not see the relevance of any of the hypothetical contracts that you mentioned either.

All those contracts except for McAvoy and Pastrnak that you mentioned in the previous post were signed before Covid with certain projections in the minds of the GMs. All those GMs were blindsided by the flat cap and had to deal with a cap crunch but it was worse for the Leafs because their entire cap structure relied on the cap to go up. Without Covid over those 3-years their pay structure would have balanced out. You mention OVI's 9.5M which is from so long ago, but look at the cap % that he took when he first signed.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Go ahead, put matthews on NJD, take nemec/nico off.

I challenge you to make a roster better than this under the cap next year (and keep in mind I went and got TERM on the signings of Mercer, Schmid, and Mcleod)

Hughes-Haula-Mercer
Nico-Palat-Bratt (has been arguably the best line in hockey btw)
Mcleod-Meier-Holtz
Lazar-Foote-Bastian
Siegs-Hamilton
Marcus Pettersson-Marino
Hughes-Nemec
Schmid
Vanacek
Seeler
Cousins
Clarke</div></div>

There's going to be a cap squeeze with bringing in Matthews, so, they would have to make concessions, so basically instead of Nemec and Petterssen you're going to have some 3rd pairing guys on cheap deals, assuming there are no significant trades. If you want a better or similar team then either you're paying Mercer less or moving Palat.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 5:59 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Or instead of thinking of the leafs (because just how hard they got bent over in negotiations makes it difficult to see) we look at some other deals.

How much of an advantage did covid provide the bruins on the pastrnak deal?? 6.6x6 and then they're able to get him for just 11.25 on the new deal bc the cap isn't as high and nobody else can afford him.
And the McAvoy deal. Able to get that bridge sub 5 mill and then a lower price of only 9.5 on the new deal bc of covid

Or the Rantanen deal for Colorado.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Because every other team who paid more AAV to go full term got screwed more.

Imagine the oilers the last 5 years with Draisaitl at 6x6, McDavid at 11x6.</div></div>

I'm not sure where you are going with the BOS examples. A team like BOS would have had to pay McAvoy more perhaps but Pastrnak would still be at 6.6M for those 3-years.

Rantanen didn't get a cheap deal, he got an expensive one like Matthews.

Imagining Draisaitl at 6Mx6 and McDavid at 11x6 is like imaging Nylander at 4Mx8 and Matthews at 10.1Mx8.

If you mean to say that Draisaitl and McDavid had higher cap hits, than Matthews and Nylander sure, but they didn't have higher cap hits than Matthews and Marner, and their top 3 paid players weren't making as much as a Matthews, Marner, and Tavares. The media likes to lump in Nylander in there as well but it's not like they really got a bad deal. At the end of the day, no team not was paying 3-guys 10M+, so no one got screwed more than the Leafs who were anticipating that the percentage be less.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Matthews gives up 2.75xGoals/60 over the last 2 years 5v5
Jack gives up just 2.56xGoals/60 over the last 2 years 5v5.
Nico is of course the best defensively giving up just 2.41xGoals/60 at 5v5 over the last 2 years

Or we could take advantage of both 3 years of ELC nemec we still have and 2 years of ELC Luke.

<strong>NJD can fit them all fine as long as there isn't an extra 5 mill of cap from Matthews. Especially if we choose to let Nemec slide another year.</strong>

Nemec is playing because there is now a space for him to get meaningful minutes yes.

We decided 22 minutes a night in Utica is better for development than 15 minutes a night in NJD, and that the gap in play in those 15 minutes between Nemec vs Miller wasn't worth burning an ELC year. Now that there are minutes available, It's better for nemec to get them in the big show.</div></div>

At the end of the day though, instead of signing Toffoli to 5M or whatever it would cost to retain him, they could bring in Matthews and a bottom-6 guy. The cap situation would be similar, the only thing is that NJ is probably going to rely on Toffoli's cap hit to come off the books sooner rather than later which would help them sign other guys.

Nemec is more than likely not going to be a huge impact in helping NJ win the cup next year. It's possible but unless that happens then that year of Hughes' ELC will be gone.

Being patient and playing it safe is an easier option and could lead to a better team for longer but that doesn't mean that going for it now in a big move like this wouldn't be possible to manage in terms of cap space. The concerning part would be retaining Matthews (or not) and how that would affect their chances. At the end of the day though, it could be an option assuming that the trade was available.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 5:16 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Again:

Team A pays
4x4 with the intention of signing player to a 10x4 after that in order to take advantage of the immediate cap savings now, but more expensive in the later term (this is the leafs not getting full term)
Team B pays
7x8 to take advantage of the later cap savings when the cap goes up

Oh, but the cap doesn't go up.

Team B (not the leafs) now gets EXTRA screwed in the short term bc that extra 3 mill they had to pay is a bigger% of the cap then they thought it would be. Then in the long run that 7 mill is still a higher % of the cap than they thought it would be, so they get screwed again.

Team A, which didn't go for the full term (the leafs) gets screwed somewhat in the short term, but not really because those cap savings they thought they would get are now even MORE meaningful. Then the bridge deal expires, and the cap is much lower than they thought it would be at this point. Now because of this lower cap they only have to pay 9 mill on the new deal, meaning they benefit long term


You got hosed on the contracts yes, and the Tavares contract (which is different as a UFA)
With UFAs you generally underpay in the early years and then overpay as they age
But for young RFAs on long term deals it's the opposite, you overpay as they develop and then underpay as they hit their prime.

So more term=higher AAV

If you would have went full term on Marner, Matthews, Nylander, it would have cost you more in the short term with the expectation of savings in the long term
Then when the cap doesn't go up, you get screwed in the earlier years and don't get the relief in the later years

Covid bailed you out of the lack of term you got on them.

Now, you massively overpaid as if you were getting full term regardless even tho you weren't, but a longer term deal would have been even more affected by the cap stoppage</div></div>

Marner was the last to sign in sept 2019, so that means in the 2020-21 season, 2021-22 season, and 2022-23 season, the percentage of the cap that the core 4 were talking would have been less which means they have more money to spend elsewhere, Rielly probably would have gotten more but at the end of the day, Covid did not help them. Having more money, could have possibly meant that they could have signed Pietrangelo instead of Brodie, or just in general different players would have been available to them. The entire league would be able to spend more too, and maybe certain players would cost more, specifically goalies since before Covid their prices were shooting up.

Since the cap would be higher Matthews would want more money but that doesn't mean he takes a higher cap %, so he gets 14.5M or whatever but probably on an 8-year deal since there wouldn't be an expected jump in cap coming in 2 to 3 years. After his 13.25M deal, who knows how much Matthews will want?
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 4:38 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Yes. Luckily covid hit which helped you out on their next contracts.

On an 8 year contract teams will pay more in the short term for the contract to be better in the long term. They "buy" the UFA years, where in general the cap will have gone up significantly and so will the price if they were to let them hit UFA. It's where the entire concept of a bridge deal occurs.

2 options:
1)
First contract 4x4, next contract 10x4
2) 1 contract 7x8
Same amount of money, different ways.

But if the cap stops going up suddenly for an unexpected reason, that next contract for option A suddenly becomes 4x8 because there isn't money out there anymore, benifiting the teams who went for bridge deals and immediate savings.

Eg. McDavid deal
8x12.5

vs Matthews
5x11.6
Now, if the cap was at 90 million or so right now, that matthews deal is probably at 14.5 and not 13.25

So because of the unforseeable event of covid stopping the cap raise, you got bailed out for not getting full term on any of your extensions</div></div>

Matthews' contract being 14.25 -14.5M next year instead of 13.25M doesn't make any difference to the cap structure, it's still the same percentage roughly. The only difference is the real dollars. Covid didn't save the Leafs, it rendered their "overpays" useless, resulting in them having less cap to spend than anticipated which led to a lot of turnover. If the cap had gone up they might have had some more successful runs since they wouldn't constantly be losing their depth.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 4:29 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>What do you think the current players are interested in? Why did Domi and Bertuzzi only sign 1 year deals? Why did Matthews only sign for 4 years more? Why hasn't Nylander signed yet?

Players wanting more money is baked in the cake of every team.</div></div>

Every player wants money, but my point is, when you trade all your best players and have a ton of cap space, those who are interested are going to want to take that cap up. So, maybe if Bertuzzi wanted 6.5M, now he wants 7M+. They will leverage the teams need to improve. Of course, they would need to be better than Tavares, Hischer, and Vaerhaghe but at the end of the day, they aren't going to be saving any money. So, having cap doesn't mean anything if you can't sign quality players.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 4:13 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>NJ: Leafs get a 1C, 1D, and <strong>significant cap room to add in free agency</strong>.

Florida: Both Bennett and Verhaeghe are playoff proven players on good deals with two more years left. They're stock rose after last year's run.

Lightning: Leafs have a good chance at resigning Stamkos. <strong>Tampa has zero chance at resigning Nylander with their cap situation so for them Nylander is a pure rental.</strong></div></div>

Who is going to want to join the Leafs after these moves other than FA who are looking for an opportunity to make money. Their current UFAs will have a good reason to ask for more, as well as any incoming ufas. Need to save cap for Bennett and Vaerhaghe as well.

Did the TB fans convince you that they couldn't afford Nylander? Anyways, they probably can sign him after making a move but if they lose Nylander, then there's a good chance that Stamkos just goes back there.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 3:49 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Oh no the faceoff circle.

If only NJD had

Mcleod: 63%
Lazar: 58%
Hischier: 58%
Haula: 55%
Mercer: 51%
To take faceoffs.

Jersey would not have a better chance of winning the cup in the next 4 years.

First off without retention we can't afford it this year.

With Matthews it would leave us just 12 mill to pay/replace:

Schmid, Mercer, Mcleod, Toffoli, Nemec.

Let's say you give mercer 6x8, mcleod 2x2, and schmid 2x2. (so you don't get term on either Mcleod or Schmid

Then another year down the line how do you pay luke and holtz?

And by this point nemec is a quality RD that it costs 6-7 mill to find in UFA still costing 900k.</div></div>


Lol, what does having those guys have to do with Matthews playing as the 1C (1A) and Hughes as the 2C (1B)? And again it's not just the faceoffs, it's also because he's the better defensive player.

Bringing in Matthews at 13.25M over Hischer's 8M, likely means they can't afford to keep Toffoli, so it's replacing Toffoli with a league-min guy. From, the on out, the cap outlook is not going to be much different. Nemec looks good but, if Dougie wasn't injured he wouldn't be playing, so they don't need to replace him per se.

If they are that tight-pressed for money after that, they won't be able to afford Nemec, Luke, and Holtz anyway.

They can take advantage of Nemec's 1-year at 900K or they can just take advantage of L Hughes 1-year at 900K now.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 3:28 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan_the_Man</b></div><div>Stamkos 84pts in 81 Nylander 87 in 82 ohh the. Massive difference . And again Stamkos is a top faceoff guy and less of a defensive liability and isn't marshmallow soft like softlander</div></div>

I never said there's a huge difference, but I'm just answering your question of "Where has he been better?" and pointing out your bias. Stamkos is a top faceoff guy and Nylander is a top takeaways guy. You say "Stamkos is less of a defensive liability" which probably means 1) there's no significant difference or 2) your comment is just purely based on your opinion whether it's true or not.

The whole point is that there isn't much difference between the two in terms of production but there's a huge difference in age. Nylander is clearly the more valuable player at this point in time and your comment below suggests that this isn't even nearly enough to land Stamkos in terms of value.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan_the_Man</b></div><div>You're higher than a satellite if you think this gets Stamkos</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 3:04 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>What's funny?

Hughes is 4 years younger, has 5 more points in 5 less games this year, cheaper, and was better last year too.

Personally I'd take the guy who's better this year, was better last year, and is still improving</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Because NJD signed him when he was 19 years old before his breakout.

Jack age 20 season:
49 games 56 points 26 goals (48 goal 110 point pace after the christmas break)
Matthews age 20 season
62 games 63 points 34 goals
Jack age 21 season:
78 games 43 goals 99 points
Matthews age 21 season:
68 games 37 goals 73 points
Hughes age 22 season
20 games, 10 goals, 33 points
Matthews age 22 season:
70 games, 47 goals, 80 points

Seems like Jack is a step ahead. Much better defensively than matthews at that age too

Again, Jack better this year, Jack better last year, Jack still improving while matthews has peaked</div></div>

Kind of a pointless argument if you could have both it wouldn't matter. Matthews would be the 1A center simply because he's better at defense now and in the faceoff circle. Jersey would instantly have a better chance at winning the Stanley Cup for the next 4-years if they can find a solution in net. NJ would be like the Oilers but instead of having an overpaid #1, they have Hamilton and probably overall a better D-core, so the cap structure could work at least for the next at least with Hughes on his ELC, trying to move Palat when his NMC becomes a NTC should help with being able to sign L Hughes comfortably.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 2:47 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan_the_Man</b></div><div>Since the start of the 21/22 season
Stamkos 188gp 86g 130a 216pts 55% on face-offs
Nylander 188gp 84 g 114a 198pts is a winger who doesn't take face-offs. Where has he been better?</div></div>

2021-22 season is the only season in that time frame that Stamkos has out done Nylander, albeit it by a large margin. So, Nylander has been better last year and this year.

It's clear that Stamkos is trending down, and Nylander is trending up. Even if Nylander is just having a really good season this year, he's at least just as good as Stamkos. The points that you made are reasons why the trade wouldn't happen, but your original comment suggested that giving Nylander for Stamkos wasn't enough to land him which is ridiculous since he's just as good (if not better at this point in time) and 5-years younger.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 1:56 p.m.
Thread: A Whole New Core After Matthews Is Traded To Jersey And Marner To Florida
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>All fans other than the Leafs complaining about this trade are the reasons why Leafs fans troll other teams with ridiculous packages going the other way...

The Leafs decline every single one of these... Especially that NJD and FLO trades</div></div>

I think NJ one is the least harmful (aside from the fact that NJ probably wins multiple Cups). Sure, they are giving away a generational goal scorer and top 5 player in the League, but at least they are getting a good defensive C with term and good contract in Hischier and a highly touted RHD with top 2 potential, and Matthews is at least going to the other division. I don't think the FLR deal helps them improve right away, but once they re-sign Marner to a ~10M deal, they will likely find replacements for those guys, and maybe Bennett would find his way back since what makes him so effective now is the way he's playing in the FLR system. Nylander for Stamkos would help TB's longevity. So, even if Nemec becomes a top-10 defender the Leafs are probably fitting for a WC spot at the end of this just because TB and FLR are probably bound to get stronger.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
Thread: Larsson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CBA</b></div><div>The Leafs need defensive dman, they aren't winning in the playoffs because their D get pushed around or can't play defense
But they need good stay at home dman, unlike Justin Holl lol
Brodie was a great signing
Bringing McCabe was a good move
They just need a top4 stay at home RHD who plays defense first and physical</div></div>

Brodie is really a TWD, the Leafs just have had him during the time his offensive production ended up dwindling. He's not very physical either, so I imagine that's what Niemela could end up being like or more like Lilljegren, who was expected to be an OFD, but has been more like a DFD. Liljegren, is more physical than Brodie, I would still consider him a TWD since he can move the puck, and perhaps his offensive production is soon to come, but he's a defensive first guy, just not a stay-at-home guy.

Niemela isn't going to make an impact on the NHL anytime soon, and maybe never anyway, so the Leafs can get their physical defense first guy now, it's just a matter of whether or not they ship Niemela to do so. They need a guy that can move the puck in their top 4D, the stay-at-home guy needs to be stuck on the 3rd line. The problem with Holl was that he was just playing too many minutes.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2023 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread: Enough to get it done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Letsgosharks</b></div><div>is Connor Timmins good? I literally have no idea I just see these leafs posts sending him away every time</div></div>

Timmins been good in the few games he played with the Leafs between this and last year, and had a monster pre-season before being sidelined with an injury which is what's has been holding him back his entire career. Decently high draft stock but always injured, so who knows, would be a nice pick for the Sharks imo had they not had Addison already. I wouldn't say Timmins is a PP Specialist but they likely to have competition for that spot which might be good, but if they are both kept, it would likely lead to crowding each others' space like Burns + Karlsson. The move would probably to be to re-sign Addison to a one-year deal next year, and then they can decide the following year which to keep if not both.