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Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 2:38 a.m.
Thread: Ill play
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CamdenHamilton</b></div><div>Only Problem is than they are back in the same position they were this year, with zero right handed options and running 6 LHD</div></div>

They probably need to sign one of the RHDs from UFA. Apparently, the Leafs are interested in Pesce if he makes it, so if they get him that would cover the defensive guy that they need to pair with Rielly. I think they would benefit from adding another offensive guy that could possibly be the PP QB (would need to have a more effective shot than Rielly from the point). Montour in terms of handedness would be a better option than Theodore, but he's two years older, and doesn't have the same consistency as Theodore. Maybe Hronek could be available via trade. So, I would imagine they end up with 1 (like last year, they have Liljegren) or 2 RHDs in the top 6.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:32 p.m.
Thread: Markstrom trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I think the whole goalie carousel moves after the draft. Bruins will want to sell Ullmark with extension on the table (and will want Swayman extension done). Nashville probably wants same with Saros (or maybe extend him themselves). Markstrom has a big bonus July 1st. It all points to the dominoes falling in July…so Devils 2025 1st is probably the pick that ultimately gets moved for a goalie.

<strong>The caveat is that (according to Michael Russo) Minnesota may use Gustavsson to move up in 2024 draft. So they could have first-mover advantage. </strong>

We shall see…will be interesting summer.</div></div>

Jersey should probably consider moving down for him then, depending on if and what Minnesota wants them to add. I suspect they value Gustavsson more than the 45th OV pick. I think Gustavsson and Schmid could be a great tandem. They got Allen for a year, which gives Schmid more time to develop. Seems to me like a perfect fit.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 5:57 p.m.
Thread: Marner to NYR with extension who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>Endorsements are income because he's on said team just as tax breaks are so, doing an after tax comparison and adding endorsements is just garbage . Every location and team has their advantages and disadvantages . Take their cap hit period as a comparison giving a team like Toronto the advantage of not counting taxes against the cap while also not counting endorsements heavily favors all Canadian teams. Either you add all those factors or none. You don't get to have it both ways.</div></div>

Endorsements don't apply to every player on the same team the same way, so it's not the same thing. Matthews' endorsements aren't the same as Marner's or Tavares' or Max Domi's. There are probably guys with no endorsements on the team. The tax applies to their income in the same way. Endorsements are also not all local either. So, there's no argument to be made for including endorsements when you want to say if a player is living up to his contract, you wouldn't even be able to do it. So, it's not having it both ways. You want to include all factors for a player signing a contract then you would include Crosby's superstition, how? If you say, well only monetary factors, it's clear that in Marner's case, endorsements were clearly a non-factor.

You said Marner is overpaid (meaning he's not worth his 10.9M cap hit), how did you come to that conclusion?
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 5:17 p.m.
Thread: Its not happening leaf fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ennis</b></div><div>Seems like that's kind of grasping at straws. Juice is a great goalie, big or small defenders in front of him.

Either way, it's all moot because I'm happy to keep him</div></div>

I'm not denying that he's a great goalie, but I don't think the solution for the Leafs getting "goalied" is to get a better goalie when they are typically getting eliminated in close winner take all games. There is merit to adding him though considering that the only teams that make it from the East in recent years are those with top-goalies (Bobrovsky could be seen as the exception or can consider it as him regaining form).

I don't think either team gets much better with the swap without several additional moves.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 4:51 p.m.
Thread: Marner to NYR with extension who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>If you don't think teams like say Toronto don't use endorsements as incentives to get players to sign and cheaper you'rea fool . Does it always work? No of course not . But Toronto is famous for it they even brought the CEO of Canadian Tire to the meeting they had with Stamkos last time to try to convince him and tell him how much he could make pimping 💩. <strong>So again you're in favor of making it advantageous for Canadian teams where the endorsements are far more readily available</strong>.</div></div>

I never said that Toronto doesn't try to pitch to free agents or players in general, that if they sign in Toronto, they'll have endorsement opportunities. No one is talking about incentives for the player to sign. Good weather could be an incentive for a player to sign. Marner's endorsement opportunities were not enough to make him sign for less, despite him being an RFA. All of that is irrelevant to what I'm talking about. <strong>I'm not saying to change how the cap hit works.</strong>

All I'm saying is if you want to compare two players' contracts or say a player is worth his contract or not, you're going to need to look at income (from the NHL contract) so that you can get a standard and compare. If you want to say "Cap hit is cap hit. Mr. X is not worth his cap hit, so he's not worth his contract" that's fair, but there's still an argument to be made for looking at income so that you standardize the numbers and compare. Otherwise, whose contract are you using as a standard?
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 4:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 3:51 p.m.
Thread: Marner to NYR with extension who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>Just as tax benefits are a benefit of playing in a certain market. If you count tax breaks against the cap because it unfair to certain teams you fairly must count endorsement potential against team too. Assinine take.</div></div>

If you're looking to compare cap hit vs the income players make from their salaries then it's not. A place like Anaheim has a high tax rate, but doesn't have the same endorsement opportunities as Toronto. If you're looking at all the low-tax states, the endorsement opportunities aren't all going to be the same. The most marketable players are going to get endorsements, wherever they play.

Would be difficult to compare players on the same team, let alone on different teams that have different opportunities and tax rates.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 3:34 p.m.
Thread: Marner to NYR with extension who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>Neither is Marner he's making 10.9'and next contract he's going to demand 12 but <strong>nice bull💩 diversion</strong>. If he didn't care more about rings than cash he'd made that when he signed this contract. <strong>Panarin isn't as good</strong> and to start the same season signed for 11.6</div></div>

<strong>What?</strong>

Whether Marner should have gotten paid so much as an RFA or what he'll make on his next contract does not change the fact that today, he's not overpaid at 10.9M. Maybe you just brought up Kucherov because of the kous' playmaking comment but the whole point of his response was to say that Marner is not currently overpaid. That's why I brought up Kucherov's cap hit if that's what you were calling a diversion.

You're absolutely right, that if he cared more about winning than lining his pockets he would have taken less.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boltsbeathabs</b></div><div>Don't think endorsements play a role so do you count endorsements against the cap too . Moronic argument.</div></div>

Endorsements are a benefit of playing in certain markets and/or being marketable. It's a factor for free agents looking to sign somewhere or RFAs wanting to leave money on the table. The team isn't the one paying though in the end.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 1:17 p.m.
Thread: According to David Pagnotta
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AEcho</b></div><div>I think NSH would be willing to spend in order to get a superstar or game breaking kind of player, I just don't know if Marner is that player for them. I won't say he can't be that player, but it would just depend on the cost. The big thing for NSH, if they were to give up Saros, is that they wouldn't want to give up much more than that as part of this deal, and that is more due to how much they value Saros. I think you are right that goalies are likely evaluated as lower than forwards and defenseman, but that is because a goalie can't really win you the game, they can either 1. Keep you from losing it or 2. Help you "win more" (e.g. bigger score discrepancies). That said, goalies at Saros's caliber can "win" you games just by continuing to give the offense time to score, and for TOR's case, that isn't exactly difficult.

But, if TOR is not interested in Saros, what does it cost to get Marner? For him I'd be willing to spend a number of assests for him. The only 3 prospects in my mind that are currently untouchable for Marner would be L'Heuruex, Svechkov, and Molendyk. Either of the 1st's NSH has for 2025 and some of the top prospects NSH has like Tomasino, or defenseman like Ufko I'd be open to moving. I wouldn't feel good about giving up Ufko, but I would consider him eligible from NSH in a deal that brings in someone like Marner, and NSH can draft for more RD's in the upcoming draft with their picks.

If the ask is Askarov, then I can't imagine that NSH would be very receptive to it. They aren't going to not consider it, but I'd rather try free agency before moving Askarov. The big reason for that, and with the idea of acquiring Marner is that NSH needs centers more than anything now, and NSH has an over abundance of RW's in system right now, so moving the goalie of the future for a piece to win now, when the team isn't exactly built to win now is really risky and would require a lot re-prioritization on NSH's end to make that happen.</div></div>

I don't think the Leafs would ask for Askarov but could be wrong, I think they would want someone with more experience to play in tandem with Woll or a starter. I just thought that maybe Trotz would want to cash in on his value sooner rather than later. Unless Draisaitl becomes available or they are looking to trade up in the 2025 draft (assuming there's a C they want) don't see them being able to get one any time soon. I personally think Gustavsson makes more sense for the Leafs but let's see what Treliving thinks. I don't think the Leafs would want the prospects straight up but maybe a 3-way between CGY could work.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>The thing is that Marner would be traded after he's paid his bonus on July 1st, so there is the chance that a lot of the FAs are gone if they can't get a deal finalized quickly. I do think they would work on a framework for a deal beforehand, but I imagine NSH would want to know Marner's expectation for salary as well. Teams can go up to 10% over the cap and the Leafs do have 18.5M cap to work with, so maybe they stall with their own FAs and sign a couple of big names to extend that time. So, with the assumption that the Leafs could take advantage of the cap space and it's Saros getting dealt, I think the cost on top would be minimal like Tomasino (former 1st) and a 2nd or 3rd, possibly other stuff added n the Leafs side.

Marner produced as a rookie with Bozak and JVR and he didn't have an elite center in his 2nd either, 3rd year he got Tavares, but you can see how Tavares benefited as well in the following year reaching a career high in goals. So, the question isn't whether he can produce without an elite C, it's how much will his production potentially drop and if he can produce with the guys NSH has. Almost everyone's totals in NSH over the years have been low for forwards, with the exception of Forsberg but his production is all over. When Duchene came his totals plummeted for example. However, I don't think Trotz is too concerned about that because of Marner's 2-way game. That being said he's probably still looking for a bargain.

If NSH is keeping Saros, then maybe a 3-way trade between the Flames, Leafs, and Preds could be worked out with the futures that Just_A_Guess suggested, personally I think Askarov would be on the table as well but I don't think the Flames or Leafs would want him anyways.

Flames: A ton of futures (mostly from NSH) + Liljegren/Fabbro
Preds: Marner + pick/prospect
Leafs: Markstrom + Andersson + a pick/prospect</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: How would you make a Mitch Marner Juuse Saros swap more fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeauxPreds1</b></div><div>I know I wouldn’t want to add too much more to saros from this pred fans. Marner may be elite but he also comes with a big price tag. And getting rid of that contract helps Toronto fill more needs on the defense. If they could Marner into saros and say pesce then I think they have a better all around team. I’m hesitant on Marner because will he be able to produce without an elite center</div></div>

The thing is that Marner would be traded after he's paid his bonus on July 1st, so there is the chance that a lot of the FAs are gone if they can't get a deal finalized quickly. I do think they would work on a framework for a deal beforehand, but I imagine NSH would want to know Marner's expectation for salary as well. Teams can go up to 10% over the cap and the Leafs do have 18.5M cap to work with, so maybe they stall with their own FAs and sign a couple of big names to extend that time. So, with the assumption that the Leafs could take advantage of the cap space and it's Saros getting dealt, I think the cost on top would be minimal like Tomasino (former 1st) and a 2nd or 3rd, possibly other stuff added n the Leafs side.

Marner produced as a rookie with Bozak and JVR and he didn't have an elite center in his 2nd either, 3rd year he got Tavares, but you can see how Tavares benefited as well in the following year reaching a career high in goals. So, the question isn't whether he can produce without an elite C, it's how much will his production potentially drop and if he can produce with the guys NSH has. Almost everyone's totals in NSH over the years have been low for forwards, with the exception of Forsberg but his production is all over. When Duchene came his totals plummeted for example. However, I don't think Trotz is too concerned about that because of Marner's 2-way game. That being said he's probably still looking for a bargain.

If NSH is keeping Saros, then maybe a 3-way trade between the Flames, Leafs, and Preds could be worked out with the futures that Just_A_Guess suggested, personally I think Askarov would be on the table as well but I don't think the Flames or Leafs would want him anyways.

Flames: A ton of futures (mostly from NSH) + Liljegren/Fabbro
Preds: Marner + pick/prospect
Leafs: Markstrom + Andersson + a pick/prospect