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GalchyTheBeast27

Rak Wraithraiser
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Dec. 6, 2019
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Montreal Canadiens
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 17, 2023 at 8:27 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 23, 2023 at 1:18 p.m.
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2023 at 10:27 p.m.
Thread: Curious would Habs fans like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>You'd be able to recoup a 2nd and maybe more for Kubalik at the deadline. Same for Brannstrom, you'd be able to make a nice profit at some point

Note that If Dorion didn't mess things up, I would never look to do that

But the point for Montreal is that despite the LD prospects and the UFA status of Kubalik, you don't have to keep players forever, you buy low sell high since you are in a rebuild. Dorion is easy to benefit from so the trade is made for that. Unless you think Ylonen and Kovacevic would return more than two 2nds or something like that?</div></div>

I understand where you're coming from but I respectfully disagree about the potential upside of the deal from MTL's perspective.

Firstly I don't believe that Brannstrom carries much value in the league right now, nor do I believe this to change in the short term. Recent trade trends suggest that undersized defensemen aren't in much demand by most teams, especially if those defensemen aren't elite offensively. I firmly believe it would be far easier to get value at the deadline for Kovacevich than Brannstrom. Not only is Kovacevich half a foot taller but he also shoots right and had all of 3 fewer points than Brannstrom last season while costing less than league minimum and less than half of Brannstrom's cap.

For Kubalik's part I don't disagree that he could likely recoup value at the deadline but that would require extra effort to showcase him and likely retention on his contract by MTL. This is where his opportunity cost comes into play since MTL only have 1 retention slot remaining, which they are likely keeping for Monahan. Using a broker would eat into the expected return and reduces the overall upside of the Sens-Habs trade.

In short I believe Kovacevich is not only more important to MTL currently than Brannstrom would be, but also likely holds more value across the league so this part doesn't work for me. Next while I would trade Ylonen for Kubalik I would not include a 3rd because this would significantly reduce the upside of this trade for MTL. While Kubalik would return more than Ylonen (likely around a 2nd based on comparables) this would only result in marginal value if any (about 15 slots between the 2nd and 3rd round picks minus the broker fee of a 4th or 5th).