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Gofnut999

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Forum: Armchair-GM8 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GM9 hours ago
Thread: Offseason 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>are you really over here comparing a 32OA and a 29OA to the penguins potential top 10 pick?

That same Kuemper also got trade for Tobias Rieder and Scott Wedgewood. Not exactly some huge haul of a return.

Getting a 1st in a goalie trade is probably like 95% in a goalie trade. It's a very low odds of a return. Even on a decent goalie.
They just don't retain value. Not that he's not worth "50 cents on the dollar" it's just the value of goalies around the leauge.
Unless you have a bidding war the return is low. There isn't much reason to think there is going to be a bidding war on a Ullmark trade. As there aren't many openings and there are a few goalies potentially on the market, like Jarry above. Which drags the cost down.
Believe me, I get your wanting to get value. I would love to say a 2x all star goalie like Jarry will return a 1st. But he's not. There is no reason to think that Ullmark who is 30 and has a horrible playoff record is going to do any better.</div></div>

I never said anything about your 1st this year.

I said it will take a pick in the 20-40 range as the primary piece. The 24 draft is weak to begin with so a 24 pick in that range has less value than normal.

A pick outside the top 50 piled with lesser pieces is not going to get it done unless they are moving him just to clear cap space and they don’t need to.


The pair of 3rds and Gauthier do nothing at all for Boston.

Broz and that 2nd would do it. Can probably reduce the 2nd to a 3rd at that point.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 hours ago
Thread: Offseason 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>That's an over pay to begin with. Goalies don't hold value.
PIT is the wrong trade partner here anyway, Blom and the russian guy are their future in net.</div></div>

Lol.

The last significant goalie traded was Kuemper who got a 1st/Timmins/cond pick as a pure rental.

The last goalie Boston traded was Martin Jones. 1st/Kuraly.

I could give you a list of goalies worse than Ullmark that got 1st+ returns. They were not as good as him either.

I agree goalies are undervalued when it cones to trade returns, but the notion that his value is 50 cents on the dollar is laughable.

His NTC may limit his return as there will be very few options for Boston unless he is willing to waive.

However they don’t have to trade him either.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 11:10 a.m.
Thread: Lottery Luck Hawks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>All of those trades happened a LONG time ago, and most of them did not work out well at all. Teams now are wary of trading a lot for goaltenders because of those trades. Goalies are a difficult specimen, a lot of their success can be attributed to the team playing in front of them, coaching and training, culture, confidence, mental health, etc. I'm sure if Mrazek had BOS's roster in front of him, his numbers would look just as good if not better.

Either way, I don't know why I am spending any time talking about this, because I don't think CHI should even consider trading for a goalie any time soon. If/when it becomes time to look at G's, Swayman will be significantly older and there will be a whole new crop of G's to consider.</div></div>

High end goalies are rarely traded in their prime. You have to span a a couple decades to find a cross section.

Jones was in 2016 i don’t classify that as a LONG time ago. Kuemper was last year.

Yes GMs are starting to properly place more value on their 1sts. True. Yet every year they continue to piss them away for rentals at the deadline. I personally don’t believe in trading top 20 picks unless i’m getting an established long term asset in return. Luckily Swayman is that. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I also agree goalies are fickle, streaky, hot one minute/year cold the next and a product of their environment. No question. Which makes trading for one risky. It also makes relying on the development of one risky as well. You see late round picks and undrafted goalies having success far more than any other position.

It is a weird position. The hardest to play and most important, yet the easiest to put up good numbers without being elite as well. As evidence by journeyman and EBUGs having success. Which leads GMs to often skimp/get by at the position. Yet very few teams have been successful without high end goalies either. It’s a balancing act.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:59 a.m.
Thread: Lottery Luck Hawks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I appreciate the more concise and level headed response than the other guy.

But, you would have to go back to 2016 to find a trade similar to this. Which was Freddy Andersen, who had been just as good, if not better, to TOR for a late 1st and a late 2nd. That was considered an absolute haul at the time. Then Lehner + David Legwand went for a late-ish 1st round pick in 2015, but Legwand was the main piece of that trade. Ryan Miller got a pretty nice return, but he was also packaged with Steve Ott who was a valuable role player with scoring ability at the time.

So, essentially, any trades that were as valuable or "better", included other pieces and/or were comparable goalies in similar situations. And that was a long time ago, too. So, I'm sure the market has changed to some degree. But I had to sift through a million goalie trades just to see anything comparable. There were lots of pretty good goalies that went for next to nothing through the years, though, and none were really better than what this proposal offers. Goalies just don't tend to go for crazy amounts, and those that may or may not be worth a crazy amount are rarely traded. Teams tend to hang onto the younger ones and only move them when they are predicted to be on their way out, in their mid 30's generally.</div></div>


We got a 1st and Kuraly for Martin Jones RFA rights the last time we traded a goalie of value.

Tomas Vokoun got a 1st, 2nd conditional 2nd.

Corey Schnieder got the 9th overall pick.

The last significant goalie traded was Kuemper who got a 1st/Timmins conditional pick as a pure rental.

Just a few examples.

Considering Swayman’s age and play i’d expect more than late 1st late 2nd. It is not worth trading him if they don’t get more and they have no need to move him.

Would be different if they had to move him.

If he received an offer sheet in range of his expected next contract the compensation would be 1st/2nd/3rd. Boston would match and not take the compensation. If they would not take that they are not taking a similar value trade. It would take an OS the next step up. 8.5+ with compensation of 2 1sts, 2nd, 3rd for them to not match.

I expect if they trade Swayman it is going to take a good young player under 25 coming back. Not necessarily 1 for 1. Likely a package of some sort. Mercer or Zegras come to mind quickly. Or it will take a pick in the upper half of the 1st and second piece. If not there is no interest in moving him.


I agree with the notion Chicago is not likely the team. Commesso there and fits the timeline. But if they decided to mitigate the risk. Oliver Moore or Frank Nazar would be the primary piece for Boston. Anything less Boston walks away,
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Lottery Luck Hawks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Idk. BOS fans like Gofnut999 will say that BOS declines, but when it comes to goalie trades, this is actually a massive return. That said, I think BOS would be more inclined to keep the younger goalie, Swayman, and shop Ullmark for a trade, if they need the cap or roster space.

Also, CHI probably won't target a goalie for at least a few more years. They'll want to see what they already have in the pipeline and probably give Soderblom more time to either sink or swim. Save Commesso as the "next step", and then figure out if they need to look outward for a goalie when they come into a window of contention, which is still at least a few years away.</div></div>

Boston declines because it does not make the team better.

A late 1st two years from now and a pick outside the top 50 in a weak draft is a not going to get them to move Swayman. They will just keep him.

Worse goalies and rental goalies have gone for more. So I would not call this a massive return.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 10:08 a.m.