Green4D4Again

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Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 2:48 pm
Thread: Bottom 7 Teams Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>nolanparliament</b></div><div>I think all will but Brannstrom, i've watched him lots in Belleville and he has never dominated at that level. I think with the NA physicality of the game is going to hold him back from being a great defenceman</div></div>

Yeah his size won't win him any battles but Karlsson was never that physically dominate either. He learned to have a quick stick and foot speed to help him get out of tricky situations (Karl will have to rely more on having a quick stick now that his natural acceleration has taken a bit of a hit). That and hockey sense. Once Brannstrom grows a bit into his body and becomes a man, we might see more physicality out of him. Give him time. Not playing for 10 months won't help either...

I also think we need to temper expectations, just a tad. We attach him to the fact we was traded for Stone. I don't think he'll be that top 2 elite level D that he all want him to be. He'll be put in more offensive situations and learn to hold his own in the D-zone. I think of him more of a Torey Krug or Alex Goligoski. At best, he'll be a Quinn Hughes archetype.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16 at 11:56
Thread: Filling Out The Roster No Trade
This is the likeliest of scenarios if no picks make the team out of camp.

It's make or break for L. Brown. He won't be given anything if someone like Norris outshines him in camp or if Ottawa lands Byfield and he comes in and makes a splash for #2/3C. He's caught in a weird place being too good for the AHL and just not good enough for top 6. He's a lot less versatile then someone like Norris who can basically come in and play anywhere. You made another ACGM where he played the wing and I think that could be a better fit than C right now. There was a point when Belleville went with Brown-Paul-Batherson so it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

No complaints on the bottom 6. So many options.

I'm really pulling for Jaros. I just think it'd be a huge mistake by management if they didn't give him more opportunity and ice-time. He's got everything a new age defensive minded D has in speed and physicality. Depth chart disagrees with me, though. We'll see how Zubby plays.

It's Hogberg's net to lose this year IMO. They'll play Nilsson for ice-time and to up his trade value but, right now, Hogberg is the future.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 12 at 6:48
Thread: 2020 - DET OTT trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gregb569</b></div><div>Good thing you didn't acknowledge my Gubdranson statement!

When I make a trade, I go off past trade values. If Gudbranson costs no assets to move and we get something (although basically nothing in a 7th rounder) there is 0 basis for you to say it costs a 1st to move JJ.</div></div>

With the "value" of this trade, there is little to no incentive for Ottawa to take on the remaining 3 years at a combined 8.25 million in actual money of a 33 year old 5-6 LHD. Not for a 3rd as a "sweetner" and giving up a 5th round pick on top of taking on a bad contract. Maybe if there was retention on JJ. Point is the value and is not there, plain and simple. Gudbranson's contract is different and not nearly as bad of a contract as that of JJ's. 1 year compared to 3 more after this season... Also, Anaheim needed stability on the back end at the time because of a lack of RHD suitable to Guddy's role. It was a win for both teams.

Let's do a little analysis of this proposed deal:

#1- The contract is bad one that is universally criticized to this day.
#2- JJ would be in the way of development. Ottawa has numerous, young, more mobile and more talented LHD that would be suitable to the 5-6 role (Wolanin, Borowiecki, Brannstrom, Lajoie and Mike Reilly).
#3- Ottawa doesn't need help reaching the cap floor when there is more than enough bodies in house that need to be re-signed that will do that (Borowiecki, Duclair, Tierney). Not to mention the amount UFA's that can sign 1 year deals.
#4- A 3rd round pick in this years draft as a sweetner is laughable when other sweetners included prospects and higher-round picks. Hence <a href="/users/MelnykOut" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@MelnykOut</a>'s counter of a 1st round pick. Look what it cost to move Marleau and Zaitsev in Toronto, which is a more comparable trade in this instance than that of Gudbranson.
#5- This trade heavily favours that of Pittsburgh. There is no way that it doesn't. It will cost more to move him.
#6- The need for Pittsburgh to move JJ is a lot higher than Ottawa's need to acquire him. Which is why it will cost more for Ottawa to take him on.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 11 at 9:36
Thread: 2020 - DET OTT trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gregb569</b></div><div>Johnson has better PS than every D on OTT roster besides obviously Chabot, and Hainsey.
Getting a player you can use + afford for a 5th is a no brainer.. especially considering you get to move up in the draft by 60 spots? You'd be stupid not to take this.</div></div>

Johnson also had the luxury of playing for a great team and system in Pittsburgh so saying he's better than every other Ottawa defense-man other than the 21 year old playing 30 minutes a night and his 36 year old partner on a rebuilding team that finished 2nd last is a poor argument to make.

Ottawa has enough picks in this draft. Another 3rd rounder is going to make Pierre lose his mind and acquire a guy on the wrong side of 30 <strong>while still giving up a pick</strong> for another 3 years. Not when Ottawa also has enough LHD spots on the roster they would rather play and develop. So Ottawa rejects plain and simple.

Ottawa could also re-sign Hainsey or any other veteran D... for free...
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9 at 12:13
Thread: Crystall Ball projects Ottawa Senators future contending roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div>Trust me, that cap space will be gone quickly when Batherson, Norris, Lafrenière, Brannstrom, Formenton, Byfield...etc are all going to eventually earn lots of money. The team shouldn't overspend, to make sure they have enough space to sign as many players as possible in the future so they can stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible. <strong>Again, in my opinion, Tkachuk is not worth $ 8 million right now, maybe after 5 years he will be.</strong> That's my take on this</div></div>

Apologies for the sarcasm. But, you've been insinuating a bridge deal throughout this entire thread so I'm calling you out. You've also said trading him if he wants 8 million per. That's ludicrous considering the situation Ottawa is in. If any other team had Ottawa's cap space, 8x8 is a steal.

If you trade a rising star before his first contract, does that instill faith in the fan base that we will keep Byfield/Stutzle/Lafreniere/Batherson/Brannstrom/Norris if they ask for market value? If you low-ball the player during contract negotiations, do you think he'd consider staying if upper management thinks he's not worth keeping at a higher price for what he brings on and off the ice? If you bridge deal a rising star for no good reason other than "prove-it again", what does that tell the player?

What does that mean for Chabot and White when you won't commit long term a future captain/assistant captain/friend?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8 at 10:17
Thread: Crystall Ball projects Ottawa Senators future contending roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div>Trust me, that cap space will be gone quickly when Batherson, Norris, Lafrenière, Brannstrom, Formenton, Byfield...etc are all going to eventually earn lots of money. The team shouldn't overspend, to make sure they have enough space to sign as many players as possible in the future so they can stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible. Again, in my opinion, Tkachuk is not worth $ 8 million right now, maybe after 5 years he will be. That's my take on this</div></div>

Ah yes, in 5 years. Let's bridge deal this young star so he feels alienated and then act surprised when he doesn't want to commit long term. Worked so well with Stone, didn't it?

It's easy to give "prove it" contracts to someone like Duclair because of his lack of consistency season to season. But, Dorion would be setting himself up for disaster if he doesn't commit long term to Tkachuk. He's 20 years old. Has two 20 goal seasons under his belt, can keep up physically, is a p***k to play against, has leadership qualities to him, draws all the penalties and is a beauty off the ice. How many of those guys listed above have played a full NHL season? Do you think all those guys are going to be worth their potential? If anyone has earned his contract so far, its Tkachuk. 8x8 is more than fair. The cheaper the better. If he signs for less than that, feel free to call me out because I would love to be wrong in this case.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7 at 9:06
Thread: Crystall Ball projects Ottawa Senators future contending roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div>Not sure his ceiling is better. I think Tkachuk is better than Stone in hitting, crashing the net, shooting a lot, and in skating, but Stone's defensive game, takeaway expertise, his shot's accuracy and release, and the fact that he's in his prime, I think, make Tkachuk's next contract non-comparable to the one Stone recently got.

Again, Chabot got paid $8 million to play 30 minutes a night, he is extremely talented, calm, and potentially the team's captain. Tkachuk will get paid big, just hopefully not as big as Chabot. Ottawa will need that cap space in a few years.</div></div>

In a few years, Ryan will no longer be paid by Ottawa, freeing up 7.25 million. Anisimov (4.55) and Gaborik's contract (4.75) are gone after next year. If a CBO is used, Zaitsev will be gone. That frees up another 4.5 right away (21 million total). Even at that, Zaitsev is our only competent RHD right now so I think he'll stay put. Point is, I don't think paying players will be a problem down the road. I think hitting the cap floor will be the issue. I also find it funny that apart from White and Chabot, that those 4 guys are the highest paid on the team. It's a wonderful problem to have when you have a solid prospect pool.

Tkachuk drove the majority of the play this year (as a winger) so I think the talent is there to get away with paying him 8x8 (which isn't a lot when the cap is going up in a few years). Imagine what he could do with an actual top talent center that isn't Colin White or Chris Tierney? Two 20 goal seasons as a 20 year old is nothing to scoff at.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 6 at 9:22
Thread: Crystall Ball projects Ottawa Senators future contending roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div>That is possible, but I think Tkachuk will take less. I think $7 million for Brady is very fair. Long term contracts are risky for both the player and the team. He's securing a long term deal to secure himself and the team is hopefully getting itself a steal, but both ways there is a risk and each side has to give and take. Especially if Brady hopes to be playing on a competitive team and has bought in to Ottawa's rebuild. Ottawa can't be paying all of their younger players $ 8 million, especially with Lafrenière or other players who will potentially need more money to stay in Ottawa.</div></div>

You also forget that he has the same agent as JG Pageau, Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone (Newport Sports Management). All of which are now gone. The agent is also not a fan of either Pierre Dorion or Eugene Melnyk and was not a fan of the handling of 2 out of 3 of those clients (Karlsson and Stone). He'll get 8+ and an offersheet isn't out of the question. Or, they sign him to a 2-3 year bridge deal similar to his brother and then ask for more. Or they walk him to arbitration and then we have a similar situation with Stone.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2 at 7:33
Thread: Stutzle and Lafreniere
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div>I don't see the Atlantic like that honestly. The Leafs' defence isn't great, Montreal isn't great, Detroit is Detroit, perhaps Buffalo will be a little better, panthers are the panthers, and Bruins and Lightning will still be really good but Marchand is turning 32, Bergeron 35, Hedman 30, and Stamkos is 30. Yes, all these teams have really good up and coming players but I think Ottawa has the players to compete with those teams<strong> in a few years</strong>.</div></div>

Key words here. I get this is the roster outlook for 2021-22. But, staying the course for a proper rebuild involves 3-4 years of bottom 5-10 finishes. I would say that this past year was year 1. The full tear down started when Stone, Duchene and Dzingel were traded. Ottawa is extremely lucky to have 2 lottery picks this year so it kind of brings them back up to speed this year. It also helps that this draft is very top heavy so they're getting 2 good players right off the bat. That, and the recent proposed draft rules would have Ottawa finish no worse than 3 and 4.

The Atlantic is still going to be strong:

Toronto's D is going to get better with Liligren and Sandin getting regular spots. Rielly and Muzzin are healthy. I would say their problem might be in goal come 2022. Boston seems to be aging like a fine wine which infuriates me to no end. Tampa Bay is going to be dominant still. Even with an "aging" core. Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, Vasilevsky? All 24 and under. Not to mention Coleman. Don't count Kucherov (25) out either with Palat (27) on the wing. Florida had an off year and looks to be, probably, off loading a bad contract either by CBO or by trade. Hopefully Ekblad becomes available and Ottawa swoops in. I'd love to see him and Chabot play 25 minutes a night. Detroit will remain bad for a few more years. A few lottery finishes puts them in a better position. Buffalo can only go up from here (I said that last year knowing full well they were going to get hot and then crash). Montreal is getting some much needed help on the blueline (Romanov) and up front with a fresh Caufield. They also have more picks in this years draft than Ottawa does. Watch for them make a push.

Ottawa has an exciting future, don't get me wrong. It's just foolish to think teams are going to start falling off a cliff by the time Ottawa becomes competitive again.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1 at 9:18
Thread: Stutzle and Lafreniere
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div>I think Ottawa, though not great yet, is too good to be competing for the 1st overall pick again next year. With a growing core of young players, what will now be the second year under DJ Smith, and the additions of Lafrenière and/or Stützle, Ottawa will definitely be better next season. Even without adding players from this year's draft, Ottawa will improve. And honestly, I don't think Sens fans have enough patience to endure another year of being in lottery territory. Ottawa, after this draft, should have all the right pieces to be a contender soon.</div></div>

Oh for sure but they still have to deal with a competitive Atlantic. Detroit will still be bad and maybe Buffalo but beyond that, it looks rather challenging. I still think they finish bottom 10 in the league for this year and then just outside a wildcard the following year.