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HabsRafiki

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Jun. 28, 2017
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Montreal Canadiens
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 6, 2022 at 10:07 a.m.
Thread: GM Doug Mackenzie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacko</b></div><div>Quote from article: “ Personally, I’m excited to see how wrong this one is.

I’m reporting it how the model spits it out now, and as you’ve read — the best framing for each of these players is one born out of optimism. Nick Suzuki deserves the most optimism given his age and previous trajectory. His comps make that even rosier, pushing his positive value probability from 24 percent to 35 percent (inclusion on this list is based on the former number).“

He doesn’t necessarily believe his metrics on Suzuki imo</div></div>

I read that entirely as a hedge and kind of gutless. If Suzuki has a "meh" year, Dom Luszczyszyn can say "I told you he's not worth $8.75M"; and, if Suzuki lights it up, the writer can say "yeah, but I did say it might be wrong". As I said, it's kind of gutless.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 6, 2022 at 9:39 a.m.
Thread: Even with Kadri this team will not make the playoffs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Burnout</b></div><div>How much is Montreal paying to move the salary to fit him? Its the cap era, trades are not nearly that simple.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheRealisticGuy</b></div><div>Ignore him lol he thinks MTL can move Gallagher contract for FC lol</div></div>

I would counter saying that you should ignore "TheRealisticGuy", since he clearly has a selective memory and torques people's comments. I suspect he's mainly burned because I pointed out that he doesn't understand the US collegiate rule that will make Struble a UFA after this season. FWIW, this was my exchange with CHAR:

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CHAR</b></div><div>Gallagher has one of the worst contracts in the league. Not a chance in hell Montreal moves that.</div></div>

Conventional wisdom would suggest you are correct, but if Gallagher, as he says will happen given the long off-season to heal up, regains his form and scores on a 30+-goal pace again and does all the other great stuff he does, there might be teams willing to take his term in return for a shorter problem contract of their own. </div>

So, yes, I did say Gallagher MIGHT be moveable <strong>in the right circumstances </strong>but certainly not right away. And I stand by that.

As to Burnout's question:

Today, Dadonov could likely be offloaded reasonably easily, though his NTC likely complicates matters.

Anderson would not be a hard sell for any team with cap space, but given his history with Dubois and the hopes for Dach, I suspect the Habs aren't eager to part with him unless it's a very solid offer.

With a decent start, Drouin would fetch some interest, though it's just as likely the Habs might offer him a "lifer" contract at a much-reduced AAV. Drouin at $3M would be a bargain. At that point, Beauvillier becomes a lot less appealing.

I agree with the general consensus that moving Hoffman and Byron would be tough, though, if playing well, either/both could attract interest at the trade deadline, but I doubt either would fetch much. Hoffman is a credible addition to a team that needs scoring and has the other components in place. Byron, with an expiring contract, is a no-risk move for a team that needs a versatile veteran who, when healthy, is a significant' plus player.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2022 at 11:33 a.m.
Thread: Tuesday
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RichardAvs</b></div><div>Girard is locked in for 5 more years, and Guhle isn't even proven yet. Maybe replace Guhle in this trade and you still don't touch it? Ahhh</div></div>

I think trading Guhle is a tough sell, but it would be a very balanced move for Girard. Colorado is getting a little expensive in its back end, which makes trading for someone on their ELC worth considering. You'd be trading apples for bananas in that their styles and roles would be very different on their respective teams, but it's reasonable and fair. Whether adding Dvorak then tips the deal too much in Colorado's favour could be argued. Sam Pollock would say always take the best player. In that case, if you're the Habs, there's little question you find a way to make this work.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2022 at 10:33 a.m.
Thread: Reminder
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>This. Lane Hutson could be good, and he also may not be. Who knows! The fact that all of the sudden it's apparently this massive steal when 61 other players were selected before him just a month ago because people look at his stat line from the USNTDP and think every other GM is an idiot, is very odd to me.

As a fan of another team who has had similar drafting issues as the Habs over the years, I wouldn't be going crazy yet. Prospects will break your heart.</div></div>

Definitely a fair comment. Hutson is the ultimate Hail Mary. Unlike Romanov, there is little that is unknown about Hutson and, as you point out, just about every other team passed on him at least once and many twice. I hope the Habs get lucky, but let's not kid ourselves ... it will come down to luck.

Meanwhile, the Oilers get a pretty decent defenceman who's probably happy to be home.